Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Jiayou International, with a target price of 14.43 RMB, representing a potential upside of 16% from the current price [5][8]. Core Insights - Jiayou International's performance in the first half of 2025 faced pressure, with a revenue decline of 11.99% year-on-year to 4.08 billion RMB and a net profit attributable to shareholders down 26.15% to 561 million RMB [9][10]. - The China-Mongolia business is expected to recover in the second half of 2025 due to rebounding coal prices and increased demand for Mongolian coal, with forecasts indicating a net profit of 1.32 billion RMB for 2025 [5][11]. - The company's African operations are showing strong growth, with a 34% increase in revenue from land port projects and a 40% increase in gross profit in the first half of 2025, contributing to future profit growth [11][10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be 8.67 billion RMB in 2025, with a slight decrease of 0.9% from the previous year, followed by a significant increase to 11.08 billion RMB in 2026 [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.32 billion RMB in 2025, with a gradual increase to 1.96 billion RMB by 2027 [5][4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.96 RMB in 2025, increasing to 1.43 RMB by 2027 [5][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, indicating an expected outperformance of the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [6][17]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.04 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.4%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 350 million yuan, up 13.1% year-on-year [1]. - The global mobile and chemical distribution segments showed significant growth, with the global mobile business revenue increasing by 50.9% year-on-year [1]. - The company is actively expanding its global footprint and is poised for recovery as market conditions improve [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.04 billion yuan, with a net profit of 350 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.4% and 13.1% respectively [1]. - The revenue for Q1 2025 was 3.34 billion yuan, and for Q2 2025, it was 3.69 billion yuan, showing a growth of 15.4% and 19.3% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s global freight forwarding business generated 1.69 billion yuan in revenue, up 4.85% year-on-year, while the chemical distribution business saw a revenue increase of 27.1% to 3.38 billion yuan [1]. Business Segment Performance - The global mobile business reported a revenue of 700 million yuan, a remarkable increase of 50.9% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 88 million yuan [1]. - The chemical distribution segment achieved a gross profit of 270 million yuan, with a gross margin of 8%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The integrated warehousing and distribution business experienced a slight decline in revenue, down 1.9% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 18.67% [1]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 661 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 17% [2]. - Revenue is expected to grow to 13.7 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.1% from 2024 to 2027 [2]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 71.1 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 21% from the current price of 58.93 yuan [2].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: 嘉友国际 (Jiayou International) - **Industry**: Coal and Logistics Core Insights and Arguments - Recent rebound in Mongolian coking coal spot prices by **20%** due to domestic safety and environmental regulations leading to reduced coal production, a **16%** decline in coking coal imports in Q2, and sustained high downstream procurement demand with weekly pig iron production stable above **2.4 million tons** [2][3] - Jiayou International's supply chain trading business benefits from rising coking coal prices due to a pricing time lag with upstream and downstream clients. Although long-term contract prices fell by **$7** in Q3, terminal sales prices continued to rise, indicating potential for significant improvement in profit per ton in Q3 [2][6] - Expected Q2 net profit for Jiayou International to decline by nearly **30%** year-on-year to **320 million yuan**, but showing improvement from Q1, indicating a potential bottom in performance [2][7] - Expansion plans include supply chain trading at the Ceke and Mandula ports, with expectations for growth in various African projects, including the Kasai project and the Zambia Sakanya project [2][8] Market Dynamics - Strong performance in the coking coal market attributed to: - Strict safety and environmental measures leading to reduced coal supply - Overall coking coal imports down **16%**, with Mongolian imports down **13%** - High downstream procurement demand, with stable pig iron production [5] - Positive policy developments and large-scale infrastructure investments boosting market expectations [5] Future Growth Predictions - Anticipated progress in multiple African projects over the next three years, including increased throughput at the Kasai project and the launch of the Zambia road project [4][10] - Expected improvement in supply chain trading profit margins and gross margins as coking coal prices stabilize and recover in the second half of **2025** [4][11] Cross-Border Logistics Development - Significant progress in cross-border logistics in Africa, managing over **1,000 vehicles** and establishing a network covering Southern Africa. Projected revenue growth of nearly **30%** and gross profit growth of nearly **50%** in the second half of **2024** [9] Dividend Policy and Shareholder Returns - Jiayou International increased its dividend payout ratio to **53.5%** last year, with a current dividend yield exceeding **4%**, indicating a favorable environment for long-term investors [12]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2024 annual results and 2025 Q1 results, showing a mixed performance with revenue growth but a decline in net profit in the fourth quarter and first quarter of 2025, indicating potential challenges ahead [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 8.754 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.14%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.276 billion yuan, up 22.88% [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw operating revenue of 2.209 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.63%, but net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 33.88% to 188 million yuan [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 2.295 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.02%, while net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 14.77% to 262 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Business Segments - The Mongolian coal business experienced a slowdown in growth due to the cyclical nature of the steel and coke industry, but the company remains optimistic about the future market share increase in its integrated logistics business [1]. - In 2024, the Ganqimaodu port completed a total import and export cargo volume of 40.716 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.55%, with imported coal accounting for 39.206 million tons, up 7.38% [1]. - The cross-border multimodal transport business saw a revenue increase of 22% in 2024, with a gross margin improvement of 2.17 percentage points [2]. Group 3: Market Trends and Outlook - The company benefits from the trade dynamics with landlocked countries, and the African multimodal transport business is growing due to increased demand for copper and cobalt resources [2]. - The infrastructure segment is showing strong performance, with a steady increase in the number of customs clearance vehicles, and the company’s land port project service revenue grew by 16.42% in 2024, with a gross margin of 57.46% [2]. - The company is expected to see improvements in the supply-demand dynamics of the coke and steel industry, which may enhance its market position in the future [1].