中蒙业务迎拐点，非洲业务稳释放 嘉友国际(603871) ——嘉友国际 2025 年半年报点评 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.09.05 2025-09-05 [Table_Industry] 运输/工业 本报告导读： 2025 年上半年嘉友国际业绩阶段性承压。短期看，下半年煤价回升、蒙煤需求回暖 将带动中蒙业务修复；中长期看，非洲业务的深入运营将持续推动盈利增长。 投资要点： 风险提示。需求下滑，政策变化，地缘政治风险，汇率波动等。 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 6,995 | 8,754 | 8,674 | 11,079 | 12,378 | | (+/-)% | 44.8% | 25.1% | -0.9% | 27.7% | 11.7% | | 净利润(归母) | 1,039 | 1,276 | 1,316 | 1,633 | 1,955 | | (+/-)% | 52.6% | 2 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 密尔克卫（603713）2025 年半年报点评 推荐（维持） 25H1 归母净利 3.5 亿元，同比+13%，积极推动全 球化布局，静待周期景气回暖 公司公告 2025 年中报：1）业绩表现：25H1 营收 70.4 亿，同比+17.4%；归母 净利 3.5 亿，同比+13.1%。其中 25Q1 营收 33.4 亿，同比+15.4%；归母净利 1.7 亿，同比+14.0%。25Q2 营收 36.9 亿，同比+19.3%；归母净利 1.8 亿，同 比+12.3%。 2）分业务来看，全球移动、化工品分销增长亮眼。2025 上半年全球货代业务 营收 16.9 亿，同比+4.85%；毛利 1.8 亿，同比+5.3%；毛利率 10.86%，同比 +0.04pct。仓配一体化业务营收 12.2 亿，同比-1.9%；毛利 2.3 亿，同比-9.2%； 毛利率 18.67%，同比-1.5pct。全球移动业务营收 7.0 亿，同比+50.9%；毛利 0.88 亿，同比+37.9%；毛利率 12.49%，同比-1.2pct。化工品分销业务营收 33.8 亿，同比+27.1%；毛利 2.7 亿，同比+50. ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: 嘉友国际 (Jiayou International) - **Industry**: Coal and Logistics Core Insights and Arguments - Recent rebound in Mongolian coking coal spot prices by **20%** due to domestic safety and environmental regulations leading to reduced coal production, a **16%** decline in coking coal imports in Q2, and sustained high downstream procurement demand with weekly pig iron production stable above **2.4 million tons** [2][3] - Jiayou International's supply chain trading business benefits from rising coking coal prices due to a pricing time lag with upstream and downstream clients. Although long-term contract prices fell by **$7** in Q3, terminal sales prices continued to rise, indicating potential for significant improvement in profit per ton in Q3 [2][6] - Expected Q2 net profit for Jiayou International to decline by nearly **30%** year-on-year to **320 million yuan**, but showing improvement from Q1, indicating a potential bottom in performance [2][7] - Expansion plans include supply chain trading at the Ceke and Mandula ports, with expectations for growth in various African projects, including the Kasai project and the Zambia Sakanya project [2][8] Market Dynamics - Strong performance in the coking coal market attributed to: - Strict safety and environmental measures leading to reduced coal supply - Overall coking coal imports down **16%**, with Mongolian imports down **13%** - High downstream procurement demand, with stable pig iron production [5] - Positive policy developments and large-scale infrastructure investments boosting market expectations [5] Future Growth Predictions - Anticipated progress in multiple African projects over the next three years, including increased throughput at the Kasai project and the launch of the Zambia road project [4][10] - Expected improvement in supply chain trading profit margins and gross margins as coking coal prices stabilize and recover in the second half of **2025** [4][11] Cross-Border Logistics Development - Significant progress in cross-border logistics in Africa, managing over **1,000 vehicles** and establishing a network covering Southern Africa. Projected revenue growth of nearly **30%** and gross profit growth of nearly **50%** in the second half of **2024** [9] Dividend Policy and Shareholder Returns - Jiayou International increased its dividend payout ratio to **53.5%** last year, with a current dividend yield exceeding **4%**, indicating a favorable environment for long-term investors [12]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2024 annual results and 2025 Q1 results, showing a mixed performance with revenue growth but a decline in net profit in the fourth quarter and first quarter of 2025, indicating potential challenges ahead [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 8.754 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.14%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.276 billion yuan, up 22.88% [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw operating revenue of 2.209 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.63%, but net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 33.88% to 188 million yuan [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 2.295 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.02%, while net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 14.77% to 262 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Business Segments - The Mongolian coal business experienced a slowdown in growth due to the cyclical nature of the steel and coke industry, but the company remains optimistic about the future market share increase in its integrated logistics business [1]. - In 2024, the Ganqimaodu port completed a total import and export cargo volume of 40.716 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.55%, with imported coal accounting for 39.206 million tons, up 7.38% [1]. - The cross-border multimodal transport business saw a revenue increase of 22% in 2024, with a gross margin improvement of 2.17 percentage points [2]. Group 3: Market Trends and Outlook - The company benefits from the trade dynamics with landlocked countries, and the African multimodal transport business is growing due to increased demand for copper and cobalt resources [2]. - The infrastructure segment is showing strong performance, with a steady increase in the number of customs clearance vehicles, and the company’s land port project service revenue grew by 16.42% in 2024, with a gross margin of 57.46% [2]. - The company is expected to see improvements in the supply-demand dynamics of the coke and steel industry, which may enhance its market position in the future [1].