Summary of Huabei Mining Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Huabei Mining - **Industry**: Coal Mining and Coal Chemical Industry - **Date of Call**: September 19, 2025 Key Points Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Huabei Mining's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 64.9% year-on-year to 1.03 billion yuan, primarily due to cyclical fluctuations in coal prices [2][6][25] - The company's gross profit sources are mainly from coal mining (60%) and coal chemical business (30%) [2][7] - The company has a total production capacity of 35.85 million tons across 17 coal mines, with an estimated recoverable reserve of approximately 57 years [2][7] Market Dynamics - The coking coal market was weak in the first half of 2025, with prices dropping from around 2,000 yuan to approximately 1,500 yuan by the end of 2024 [3][12] - Domestic coking coal prices continued to decline due to weak downstream demand, with prices rebounding to 1,000-1,200 yuan due to safety incidents affecting production rates [3][12] - Huabei Mining is currently in a state of low price-to-book (PB) ratio, with a debt ratio reduced to 48% in the first half of 2025 [3][21][22] Growth Prospects - Future growth is expected to rely on the recovery of the Xifeng Coal Mine and the full production of the Taohutu Coal Mine, which is projected to contribute 1-2 billion yuan and 3-4 billion yuan in net profit, respectively [2][9][10] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 1.8 billion yuan in 2025 and 2.65 billion yuan in 2026 as new projects come online [3][25] Pricing Mechanism - Huabei Mining sells thermal coal under long-term contracts and coking coal under a "2+4+4" pricing mechanism, which has allowed for competitive production costs [2][11] - The company is exploring more flexible pricing strategies to adapt to market changes [3][12] Coal Chemical Business - The coal chemical segment, primarily through Linghuan Coking and Taixin Technology, has not been operating at full capacity, but significant reductions in losses are expected in 2025 [2][15][16] - The coal chemical business contributed 30% to the company's gross profit, with expectations of reduced losses to 300-400 million yuan for the year [2][15][16] Power Generation and Non-Coal Mining - The power generation business is small but expected to contribute approximately 196 million yuan annually once a new plant is operational in 2026 [2][17] - Non-coal mining operations contributed around 40 million yuan in net profit in the first half of 2025 [2][18] Investment Considerations - Huabei Mining is considered undervalued compared to peers, with a PE ratio of around 18 times projected net profit, while competitors are valued at approximately 25 times [3][14][25] - The company has a high dividend yield, exceeding 5% in 2024, making it attractive for income-focused investors [3][23][24] Market Environment - The coal industry is currently experiencing a low point, but potential supply-side policy improvements could enhance the fundamental outlook [3][26] - Huabei Mining's unique advantages include growth potential and low valuation, positioning it favorably for future investment opportunities [3][26]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to a sharp drop in coking coal prices in June, which exceeded expectations [1]. Financial Performance - For 1H25, the company achieved a revenue of 20.612 billion yuan, down 44.64% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.032 billion yuan, down 64.85% year-on-year [1]. - In 2Q25, revenue was 10.083 billion yuan, with a net profit of 340 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 74.73% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 50.8% [1]. Coal Business - Production and sales of commercial coal in 1H25 were 8.91 million tons and 6.48 million tons, respectively, down 14% and 19% year-on-year, mainly due to geological conditions affecting output [1]. - In 2Q25, the company produced 4.6 million tons of commercial coal, down 10% year-on-year but up 7% quarter-on-quarter, with sales of 3.5 million tons, down 13% year-on-year but up 18% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The average price of coal in 2Q25 was 748 yuan per ton, down 364 yuan year-on-year and 190 yuan quarter-on-quarter [1]. Cost and Profitability - The cost per ton in 2Q25 was 426 yuan, down 111 yuan year-on-year and 94 yuan quarter-on-quarter, indicating effective cost control [1]. - The gross profit per ton of coal in 2Q25 was 322 yuan, down 253 yuan year-on-year and 96 yuan quarter-on-quarter [1]. Coal Chemical Business - In the coal chemical segment, coke production and sales in 1H25 were 1.71 million tons and 1.68 million tons, respectively, with an average price of 1,418 yuan per ton [1]. - Methanol production and sales in 1H25 were 310,000 tons and 120,000 tons, respectively, with an average price of 2,133 yuan per ton [1]. - Ethanol production and sales in 1H25 were 230,000 tons and 220,000 tons, respectively, with an average price of 4,896 yuan per ton [1]. Future Outlook - The company expects a sequential improvement in performance for Q3 due to a rebound in coking coal prices and downstream steel mills restocking [2]. - The annual production forecast has been revised down, with expectations of less than 19 million tons, but potential growth is anticipated in 2026 with the resumption of production at the Xinh Lake mine and the commissioning of the Tao Hutou project [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to the unexpected decline in coking coal prices, the company has lowered its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 37.7% and 29.2%, respectively [3]. - The target price is maintained at 15 yuan, reflecting a potential upside of 19% based on the projected P/E ratios for 2025 and 2026 [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 6.735 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.34%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 309 million yuan, down 42.71% year-on-year [2][6] - The decline in performance is primarily attributed to falling coking coal prices and a decrease in revenue from the integrated mining project in Mongolia [12] - Despite the challenges, the company's profitability improved, with a gross margin of 13.09%, an increase of 3.00 percentage points year-on-year [12] - The company experienced a significant increase in cash flow, with a net cash inflow from operating activities of 147 million yuan, turning positive year-on-year [12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 6.735 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.34% year-on-year, and a net profit of 309 million yuan, down 42.71% year-on-year [2][6] - The revenue breakdown by segments showed engineering construction and services at 3.099 billion yuan (-24.91%), resource supply chain at 2.663 billion yuan (-50.88%), power operations at 325 million yuan (+55.16%), and industrial manufacturing at 619 million yuan (-0.89%) [12] Coking Coal Market - Coking coal prices have significantly declined, with the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at the Ganqimaodu port at 735 yuan/ton as of June 30, 2025, down 43.02% year-on-year [12] - The company’s coking coal sales volume decreased, impacting overall revenue [12] Operational Highlights - The company signed new projects worth 402 million USD in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 44.76% year-on-year [12] - Key operational projects include the Croatian wind power project, which generated 215 million kWh (+20.79% year-on-year), and the Laos South Power Station, which generated 214 million kWh [12] Future Outlook - The company anticipates improvements in coking coal supply and demand dynamics, with the main contract price recovering from a low of 741.50 yuan/ton to 1295 yuan/ton [12] - The Bangladesh project is expected to enter the operational phase in the second half of 2025, potentially contributing positively to future performance [12]

Summary of the Conference Call for Shenhuo Holdings Company Overview - **Company**: Shenhuo Holdings - **Industry**: Aluminum and Coal Key Points Stock Performance and Market Dynamics - Shenhuo Holdings' stock price trends generally align with Yun Aluminum, but fluctuations occur due to Shenhuo's coal business, which is affected by coal price volatility [2][4] - In 2022, high coal prices led to Shenhuo's profitability exceeding that of Yun Aluminum, but since 2023, Shenhuo's stock performance has lagged behind Yun Aluminum as coal prices declined [2][5] - By early 2024, an increase in coal sector valuations helped Shenhuo's stock rebound, but from early 2025 to late June, falling coking coal prices caused Shenhuo's market value to underperform compared to Yun Aluminum [5] Business Operations and Capacity - Shenhuo has a flexible management shareholding mechanism and has capitalized on two significant development opportunities in the past 20 years: establishing 800,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity in Xinjiang and relocating 900,000 tons of capacity from Henan to Yunnan, which is now fully operational [2][6] - The company currently lacks supporting facilities for chlorinated alumina and has no plans for investment in this area, which is uncommon for large-scale electrolytic aluminum plants and poses a potential risk [7] Financial Performance and Profitability - Shenhuo's total coal production is 7 million tons, with coal business having a limited impact on overall performance; future earnings are expected to improve as coking coal prices recover [2][8] - In 2024, the coal business's gross profit margin is extremely low, making Shenhuo highly sensitive to increases in aluminum prices. A 1,000 yuan increase in aluminum prices is projected to boost net profit by 840 million yuan [10][11] Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The most challenging period for Shenhuo appears to be over, as coking coal prices have started to rebound from over 900 yuan to around 1,100-1,200 yuan [6] - The company has been exploring opportunities to expand capacity in Xinjiang but has not yet found suitable options. Previous discussions with local aluminum manufacturers for collaboration have not materialized due to profitability in the sector and local government restrictions [12] Coal Business Status - Shenhuo's coal business has recently shown signs of profitability, with three coal mines in Yongcheng and additional operations in Xuchang and Zhengzhou. The company has also resumed production at a 600,000-ton coal mine [9] - Despite experiencing losses in June, the rebound in coal prices has led to profitability in the coal segment by the second quarter [9] Sensitivity to Price Changes - The company has become more sensitive to aluminum price fluctuations, with a significant portion of its profit now derived from aluminum rather than coal, indicating a shift in its business model [10][11] Additional Insights - Shenhuo's management has demonstrated agility in navigating market changes, which may position the company favorably for future growth as market conditions evolve [6][8]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: 嘉友国际 (Jiayou International) - **Industry**: Coal and Logistics Core Insights and Arguments - Recent rebound in Mongolian coking coal spot prices by **20%** due to domestic safety and environmental regulations leading to reduced coal production, a **16%** decline in coking coal imports in Q2, and sustained high downstream procurement demand with weekly pig iron production stable above **2.4 million tons** [2][3] - Jiayou International's supply chain trading business benefits from rising coking coal prices due to a pricing time lag with upstream and downstream clients. Although long-term contract prices fell by **$7** in Q3, terminal sales prices continued to rise, indicating potential for significant improvement in profit per ton in Q3 [2][6] - Expected Q2 net profit for Jiayou International to decline by nearly **30%** year-on-year to **320 million yuan**, but showing improvement from Q1, indicating a potential bottom in performance [2][7] - Expansion plans include supply chain trading at the Ceke and Mandula ports, with expectations for growth in various African projects, including the Kasai project and the Zambia Sakanya project [2][8] Market Dynamics - Strong performance in the coking coal market attributed to: - Strict safety and environmental measures leading to reduced coal supply - Overall coking coal imports down **16%**, with Mongolian imports down **13%** - High downstream procurement demand, with stable pig iron production [5] - Positive policy developments and large-scale infrastructure investments boosting market expectations [5] Future Growth Predictions - Anticipated progress in multiple African projects over the next three years, including increased throughput at the Kasai project and the launch of the Zambia road project [4][10] - Expected improvement in supply chain trading profit margins and gross margins as coking coal prices stabilize and recover in the second half of **2025** [4][11] Cross-Border Logistics Development - Significant progress in cross-border logistics in Africa, managing over **1,000 vehicles** and establishing a network covering Southern Africa. Projected revenue growth of nearly **30%** and gross profit growth of nearly **50%** in the second half of **2024** [9] Dividend Policy and Shareholder Returns - Jiayou International increased its dividend payout ratio to **53.5%** last year, with a current dividend yield exceeding **4%**, indicating a favorable environment for long-term investors [12]