证券研究报告 2025年09月29日 行业报告 | 行业专题研究 供应链物流：流量变现，第二成长曲线 作者： 分析师 陈金海 SAC执业证书编号：S1110521060001 联系人 李宁 1 行业评级： 上次评级： 强于大市 强于大市 首次 （ 评级） 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 物流 摘要 ⚫ 庞大流量变现 供应链物流企业的经手货值庞大，通过"物流—贸易—制造"业务延伸，流量变现打造第 二成长曲线，海外如日本商社投资制造业，国内如密尔克卫拓展分销、嘉友国际开发陆港 项目、物产中大投资并购高端实业。 ⚫ 新业务高增长 把控核心环节，上下游赋能，使新业务高增长、利润占比上升。2018-24年物产中大制造 业务毛利润年化增速22%，占比从16%上升到41%；密尔克卫分销毛利润年化增速21%， 占比从3%上升到62%。流量变现空间较大、模式更加成熟，未来新业务有望持续高增长。 ⚫ 有望戴维斯双击 新业务利润高增长、占比上升，推动公司整体利润增速上行；商品价格回升，供应链业务 利润反转；公司风险下降、市场风险偏好上升，估值有望上升。 ⚫ 供应链物流公司经手货值往往较大，如物产中大、厦门象屿等。 ⚫ 供应 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 4.08 billion yuan, down 12% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 561 million yuan, down 26.2% year-on-year, slightly below expectations [7] - The decline in performance is attributed to pressure on the Mongolian coal import business, with average daily coal clearance at the Ganqimaodu port dropping by 15.87% year-on-year [7] - Despite the challenges in the coal sector, the company's multimodal transport and land port projects showed strong growth, with multimodal transport contributing a gross profit of 360 million yuan, up 18.78% year-on-year, and land port projects contributing 184 million yuan, up 40.43% year-on-year [7] - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downward due to the slowdown in the Mongolian coal business, with expected net profits of 1.317 billion, 1.547 billion, and 1.776 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 9.231 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.5% [6] - The net profit for 2025 is expected to be 1.317 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.2% [6] - The earnings per share for 2025 is estimated at 0.96 yuan, with a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 12 [6] - The company's gross profit margin is expected to be 19.5% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 19% [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q2 2025 met expectations, with significant growth in the African land port project and a 40.4% year-on-year increase in gross profit for the first half of 2025 [1]. - The company is expected to see a steady increase in net profit from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 1.206 billion, 1.469 billion, and 1.711 billion respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 13, 11, and 9 times [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.08 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 560 million yuan, down 26.2% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 14% [1]. - For Q2 2025, revenue was 1.79 billion yuan, down 32.4% year-on-year and 22.0% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 300 million yuan, down 34% year-on-year [1]. Business Structure - Supply Chain Trade: Revenue of 2.53 billion yuan in H1 2025, down 24.1% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 200 million yuan, down 63.9% year-on-year. The company imported nearly 3.6 million tons of coal from Mongolia, a year-on-year increase of nearly 70% [2]. - Cross-Border Multi-Modal Logistics: Revenue of 1.22 billion yuan in H1 2025, up 13.9% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 360 million yuan, up 18.8% year-on-year. The company expanded its logistics services across multiple land ports [2]. - Land Port Project: Revenue of 310 million yuan in H1 2025, up 34.2% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 180 million yuan, up 40.4% year-on-year. The project is seeing steady growth in traffic and cargo volume [3]. Shareholder Returns - The company has a dividend payout ratio of 48.8% in H1 2025, distributing a cash dividend of 0.2 yuan per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 1.8% based on the closing price of 11.38 yuan per share on August 26, 2025 [3]. Profit Forecast and Financial Indicators - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 9.492 billion, 11.340 billion, and 11.973 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.206 billion, 1.469 billion, and 1.711 billion yuan [5][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][6][17] Core Viewpoints - The company's performance in 2024 was slightly below expectations, with revenue of 8.754 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.14%, and a net profit of 1.276 billion yuan, up 22.88% [7][4] - The report indicates a trend of high performance in the first half of 2024 followed by a decline in the latter half, with a continued weak performance in Q1 2025 [2][13] - The company has made significant progress in establishing a logistics network in Africa, which is expected to enhance long-term growth prospects [3][13] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 87.54 billion yuan, with a net profit of 12.76 billion yuan, while Q4 revenue was 22.09 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 16.63% [7][4] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 22.95 billion yuan, a 15.02% increase year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 14.77% to 2.62 billion yuan [7][4] Trade and Logistics - The cross-border multi-modal transport services generated revenue of 2.45 billion yuan and gross profit of 750 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.2% and 31.5% respectively [2][13] - The main coking coal supply chain trade achieved revenue of 5.75 billion yuan and gross profit of 760 million yuan, with year-on-year increases of 29.8% and 46.1% respectively [2][13] Strategic Developments - The acquisition of the African cross-border transport company BHL in 2024 has established distribution nodes across different countries in Southeast Africa, replicating the successful model from the China-Mongolia trade [3][13] - The land port project in 2024 generated revenue of 490 million yuan, a 16.4% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit of 280 million yuan, reflecting a 7.3% increase [3][13] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025-2026 downwards due to the impact of Mongolian coal demand, with projected net profits of 1.467 billion yuan and 1.601 billion yuan respectively [4][14] - The long-term growth prospects remain positive, supported by a low PE valuation and the potential for further improvements in operational efficiency [4][14]