出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 张贝贝 编辑 | 丁萍 头图 | 视觉中国 1月30日晚间，爱美客发布公告，旗下子公司REGEN于1月29日收到深圳国际仲裁院下发的《仲裁庭 关于〈撤销临时措施决定申请〉的决定》。 这一决定撤销了2025年9月实施的临时措施，该措施此前禁止REGEN自行在中国大陆地区销售 AestheFill产品，并需继续向原代理商江苏吴中控股孙公司达透医疗供货。 自2025年9月10日爱美客子公司REGEN收到上述临时措施的决定以来，股价累计跌幅已近30%。 那么，此次仲裁限制解除，爱美客会出现上涨行情吗？ 在回答这个问题之前，我们先来了解下此次爱美客的"童颜针AestheFill产品"的商业争夺战，是否结 束？这决定了上述利好是短期还是长期驱动。 也就是说，代理权之争并未结束，只是短期出现了对爱美客有利的转折。 并非最终裁决 这场仲裁纠纷源于爱美客2025年3月以1.9亿美元收购韩国REGEN公司85%股权后，REGEN于同年7 月单方面解除与达透医疗关于童颜针AestheFill产品的独家经销协议，并不再接收达透医疗发送的任 何订单。 Regen给出的解约理由是：（1）达透医疗将独家经销 ...

出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 张贝贝 编辑 | 丁萍 头图 | 视觉中国 1月30日晚间，爱美客发布公告，旗下子公司REGEN于1月29日收到深圳国际仲裁院下发的《仲裁庭关于〈撤销临时措施决定申请〉的决 定》。 这一决定撤销了2025年9月实施的临时措施，该措施此前禁止REGEN自行在中国大陆地区销售AestheFill产品，并需继续向原代理商江苏吴中 控股孙公司达透医疗供货。 自2025年9月10日爱美客公告上述临时措施以来，股价累计跌幅已近30%。 那么，此次仲裁限制解除，爱美客会出现上涨行情吗？ 在回答这个问题之前，我们先来了解下此次爱美客的"童颜针AestheFill产品"的商业争夺战，是否结束？这决定了上述利好是短期还是长期驱 动。 并非最终裁决 这场仲裁纠纷源于爱美客2025年3月以1.9亿美元收购韩国REGEN公司85%股权后，REGEN于同年7月单方面解除与达透医疗关于童颜针 AestheFill产品的独家经销协议，并不再接收达透医疗发送的任何订单。 Regen给出的解约理由是：（1）达透医疗将独家经销业务，实际转让给其控股股东江苏吴中旗下的吴中美学，违反协议约定；（2）吴中美 学唯一股东（ ...

Core Viewpoint - Aimeike has received approval for its injectable type A botulinum toxin product, marking its first such product and the seventh in China, indicating a strategic expansion into the botulinum toxin market [1][2]. Group 1: Product Development and Market Position - Aimeike's foray into botulinum toxin began in 2021 with the acquisition of a 25.42% stake in Huons BioPharma for 856 million yuan [1]. - The newly approved product is positioned as a conventional offering in a market already populated by six established competitors, including Allergan's Botox and domestic brands like Hengli and LeTibao [2][4]. - The approval of Aimeike's botulinum toxin product is seen as a potential third growth driver for the company, although its market differentiation remains uncertain [2][5]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape for botulinum toxin products is characterized by established players with clear differentiation and market positioning, making it challenging for Aimeike to carve out a unique space [5][6]. - Aimeike's pricing strategy will significantly influence its market performance, as it may need to align closely with mainstream market prices to achieve sales targets [6][7]. - The existing products in the market have established brand loyalty and clinical advantages, particularly Allergan's Botox, which dominates the high-end market with multiple approved indications [6][7]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Trends - Aimeike's core products, including Hyaluronic Acid and PLLA-based fillers, have experienced slowing growth, reflecting increased competition in the aesthetic medicine sector [7][10]. - The revenue from Aimeike's Hyaluronic Acid products is projected to decline, with a significant drop of 23.79% expected in the first half of 2025 [13]. - The market for aesthetic injectables is becoming increasingly competitive, with over 40 brands of hyaluronic acid products approved in China, leading to price pressures and declining profit margins [18][19].

Group 1 - China has become the second-largest medical beauty market globally, with a current penetration rate of only 4.5%, indicating significant growth potential compared to other developed countries [1] - The "light medical beauty" segment is reshaping the industry ecosystem due to its core advantages of low risk, short recovery time, and high frequency [1] Group 2 - The upstream consumables and equipment sector has high barriers to entry, with a focus on the development and manufacturing of injectables, energy-based devices, and biomaterials, which are core high-margin segments of the industry [2] - From early 2024 to July 2025, 43 Class III injectable products, 2 types of botulinum toxin, and 22 types of phototherapy devices have been approved in China, indicating a significant acceleration in product approvals [2] - The market for recombinant collagen is expected to exceed 40 billion yuan in 2024 and reach 58.57 billion yuan in 2025, while the market for "童颜针" (youthful needle) is projected to grow from 500 million yuan in 2021 to 4.2 billion yuan in 2025, a 740% increase [2] Group 3 - Companies like 四环医药 (Sihuan Pharmaceutical) are rapidly rising due to their technological advantages, having developed products like "童颜针" and "少女针," which have received Class III medical device registration [3] - 四环医药 has become the only domestic company to hold compliant registrations for both "童颜针" and "少女针," and has secured exclusive agency rights for a collagen-based product in mainland China [3] Group 4 - The current market is dominated by a few companies that can consistently obtain Class III medical device certifications, creating a concentrated oligopoly [4] - In 2025, 80% of newly approved products are expected to come from companies with Class III device qualifications, leading to a market environment where small institutions are rapidly exiting [4] - The emergence of new materials like agarose and hydroxyapatite marks a shift towards ingredient diversification, while the rise of regenerative materials signifies a transition from "filling" to "tissue regeneration" [4] Group 5 - The trend is accelerating the concentration of resources towards leading companies with R&D systems, clinical teams, and compliance capabilities, indicating an irreversible trend towards specialization and compliance in the industry [5]

Core Insights - Shenzhen Pengai Medical Aesthetic Hospital celebrated its 20th anniversary, coinciding with the 45th anniversary of the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone, highlighting its growth alongside the city's development [1][2] - The hospital aims to continue advocating for "three regulations, safe beauty" and to enhance its medical technology and service details, focusing on lifecycle management of aesthetic services [1] - The "Shangxing Aesthetics" project was launched in collaboration with Aimeike, emphasizing a positive spirit and cultural significance beyond mere external beauty [2] Company Development - The celebration included participation from over 40 supply chain enterprises, showcasing Pengai's resource integration capabilities within the medical aesthetics industry [2] - The hospital's general manager, Pan Yousheng, reflected on the growth from inception to becoming a regional benchmark, emphasizing a commitment to safety and quality in aesthetic services [1][2] - A recognition ceremony was held for employees with over 15 years of service, underscoring the company's appreciation for long-term dedication [2] Future Strategy - Pengai Hospital views its 20th anniversary as both a milestone and a new starting point, pledging to drive progress in the Chinese medical aesthetics industry with a focus on customer-centricity and technological support [2] - The company aims to collaborate with excellent partners to create a more brilliant future in the next twenty years [2]

Core Viewpoint - The botulinum toxin industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with the market size projected to increase from 1.9 billion yuan in 2017 to 9.9 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.6% [1][13]. Industry Overview - Botulinum toxin, originally used for treating muscle spasms, has become a popular choice in medical aesthetics due to its minimal invasiveness and quick recovery time [3][13]. - The application range of botulinum toxin is expanding beyond traditional uses like wrinkle reduction and facial slimming to include treatments for conditions such as migraines and muscle tension disorders [1][13]. Market Dynamics - The medical aesthetics market in China is projected to reach 288 billion yuan by 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 8.03%, indicating a growing consumer demand for beauty enhancement services [11][13]. - The market is characterized by a "six-way split" among leading products, with brands like Botox, Hengli, and Letyb gaining significant market shares [15][17]. Competitive Landscape - The botulinum toxin market is competitive, with established companies like Fosun Pharma, Haohai Biological Technology, and Lanzhou Biological Products Research Institute leading the industry [17][18]. - New entrants are emerging, leveraging innovative technologies and marketing strategies to capture market share [17]. Development Trends 1. **Increasing Industry Penetration** - As living standards rise, the penetration rate of medical aesthetics is expected to increase, particularly in lower-tier cities and rural areas, driven by a younger consumer base [23]. 2. **Enhanced Regulatory Oversight** - The government is intensifying regulations on botulinum toxin production and distribution to ensure safety and quality, which will promote the healthy development of the market [24]. 3. **Rise of Recombinant Botulinum Toxin** - Recombinant botulinum toxin is anticipated to become a future trend due to its lower biological risks, higher purity, and production efficiency, addressing limitations of traditional products [25].

Core Viewpoint - AbbVie has shown resilience in its financial performance despite facing challenges from the loss of exclusivity of its blockbuster drug Humira, with strategic acquisitions and strong growth in other product lines [1][17]. Group 1: Financial Performance - AbbVie’s stock price increased by 16% since November 2023, outperforming the S&P 500 index which returned 9.41% [1]. - Humira's revenue peaked at $21 billion in 2022 but is projected to decline by approximately 38% in 2024 to $8.993 billion due to the entry of biosimilars [2]. - The total revenue for AbbVie in Q4 was $15.1 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 6.1% [6]. Group 2: Product Performance - AbbVie’s immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, have compensated for Humira's losses, with Skyrizi's revenue expected to reach $11.718 billion in 2024, a 50.9% increase, and Rinvoq's revenue projected at $5.971 billion, a 50.5% increase [4]. - The oncology segment, represented by Imbruvica, is facing competition, leading to a revenue decline of 6.9% to $3.347 billion in 2024, but Venclexta and Elahere are showing strong growth [5]. - AbbVie’s neuroscience efforts are yielding a 16.6% growth, driven by Botox Therapeutic and Vraylar [6]. Group 3: Strategic Acquisitions - AbbVie acquired ImmunoGen for $10 billion, enhancing its oncology portfolio with the ADC drug Elahere, approved for platinum-resistant ovarian cancer [1]. - The company also invested $8.7 billion in Cerevel Therapeutics, focusing on neuroscience products [1]. Group 4: Financial Guidance and Valuation - AbbVie adjusted its 2025 earnings guidance, projecting adjusted diluted EPS between $11.99 and $12.19, with a negative impact from acquired IPR&D expenses [7]. - The company maintains a stable operating cash flow between $18 billion and $22 billion annually, providing liquidity and leverage [8][9]. - A discounted cash flow analysis suggests AbbVie is undervalued by approximately 10% based on historical free cash flow margins [11]. Group 5: Market Outlook - AbbVie forecasts that total revenue from Rinvoq and Skyrizi will exceed $31 billion by 2027, indicating a compound annual growth rate of about 21% [4]. - The company’s strong cash generation capabilities and strategic positioning in immunology and oncology suggest a positive outlook despite challenges [17].