（原标题：软银CDS走阔、乐天趋稳：债务压力与AI押注分化市场情绪） 智通财经APP注意到，软银集团的信用违约互换(CDS)利差升至4月以来最高水平。在全球竞争加剧之际，投资者对这家科技巨头债务驱动的增长 模式转向谨慎。 该公司一直通过平仓为众多AI项目提供资金——从与OpenAI和甲骨文公司合作的"星际之门"数据中心到美国的机器人制造基地。根据汇总的数 据，其五年期CDS在周四升至约302个基点，高于前一天的约280个基点。 CDS上升之际，软银正加紧筹资活动。周三，该公司设定了发行5000亿日元(33亿美元)零售债券的条款，票面利率为3.98%。部分收益将用于偿还 与OpenAI投资相关的过桥贷款。随着投资者转向谨慎，软银7月发行的美元和欧元计价债券的利差也有所扩大。 相比之下，汇总数据显示，一直在减少债务负担以改善信用状况的乐天集团，其CDS利差近几周温和收窄。其5年期CDS合约从8月约250个基点的 高点降至约200个基点。 藤原资本公司首席执行官Taketoshi Tsuchiya表示，软银CDS的上升可能反映了市场正在定价的几个因素，包括人工智能相关股票的下跌、公司持 续的债券发行，以及对其集中投 ...

尽管信用保险的价值会随着市场对公司违约风险的预期上升而增加，但当前的价格表明，与其他行业相 比，这些科技公司的违约风险仍然较低。 该名直接了解交易情况的消息人士表示，Saba向银行出售了针对甲骨文、微软、Meta、亚马逊和谷歌母 公司Alphabet的CDS。 该消息人士称，一些大型资产管理公司，包括一只私人信贷基金，也热衷于购买该产品。 微软和甲骨文拒绝置评。Meta、谷歌和亚马逊没有立即回应置评请求。 科技公司债务攀升，银行寻求保护 知情人士表示，博阿兹.韦恩斯坦的Saba资本管理公司在最近几个月向银行出售了针对甲骨文 (ORCL.US)和微软(MSFT.US)等大型科技公司的信用衍生品，主要系担忧债务融资的AI投资热潮带来的 风险。 该人士称，银行通过从这家美国对冲基金管理公司购买信用违约互换(CDS)来寻求规避潜在损失。Saba 基金以其成功押注对抗摩根大通那位被称为"伦敦鲸"的交易员而闻名。"伦敦鲸"事件是指2012年摩根大 通一位交易员因建立巨额头寸导致银行亏损超过60亿美元。Saba基金(及其经理博阿兹.韦恩斯坦)在其中 扮演了对手方角色，他们识别出其中的风险，通过买入信用违约互换(CDS)进行 ...

Group 1 - The current market is facing two main issues: the Federal Reserve's measures to address structural pressures in the money market and the risk hedging demands arising from the massive financing wave among AI giants [1] - A key indicator, the tri-party repo rate, has repeatedly breached the Federal Reserve's target range, indicating localized liquidity shortages within the financial system, primarily due to the Fed's quantitative tightening policy [2][3] - Companies are increasingly turning to the bond market for financing, particularly in the tech sector, as they seek to raise capital for AI investments despite having strong cash flows [4][5] Group 2 - The demand for new corporate bonds is high, but the widening credit spreads indicate that investors are seeking higher risk premiums, reflecting growing concerns about credit risk [5] - The trading volume of credit default swaps (CDS) related to Oracle surged from $200 million to approximately $4.2 billion year-on-year, highlighting a significant increase in risk hedging activity [6] - The focus has shifted to tech companies, with banks being the largest buyers of CDS as they seek to hedge against rising credit risks in the sector [7] Group 3 - The balance between technological revolution and financial market dynamics is crucial, with the Federal Reserve needing to find equilibrium between monetary pressures and available tools [8] - The long-term implications of government debt and corporate bond expansion driven by AI investments pose significant risks to the global financial system [8]

Group 1 - The credit market is experiencing low volatility, with North American corporate credit default swap (CDS) price fluctuations dropping nearly three-quarters, approaching historical lows [1][3] - Fund managers are adopting a cautious approach, avoiding increased risk exposure until U.S. tariff policies become clearer, leading to a stabilization in risk premiums [3][4] - Despite the low volatility, major banks' bond traders are preparing for potential market turbulence, indicating that future macroeconomic news could impact corporate fundamentals and investor risk appetite [4] Group 2 - The global corporate bond spread has returned to levels seen before the "liberation day" comments by Trump in April, reflecting a relatively tight market environment [3] - There are no fundamental reasons for a large-scale credit sell-off, and no specific industry is in clear distress, suggesting a different environment compared to previous cycles [3] - Investors are bracing for potential increases in volatility due to upcoming events such as the G7 meeting and the July 9 tariff deadline set by the Trump administration [4]