Group 1: Bond Custody Total and Structure - The total bond custody increased month-on-month, reaching 178.25 trillion yuan by the end of November 2025, with a net increase of 1.48 trillion yuan compared to the previous month [4] - By category, the custody of interest rate bonds, credit bonds, and financial bonds increased, while interbank certificates of deposit saw a decrease [4] - The custody of interest rate bonds was 123.94 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 1.46 trillion yuan; credit bonds reached 19.13 trillion yuan, increasing by 0.27 trillion yuan; and financial bonds totaled 12.80 trillion yuan, up by 0.10 trillion yuan [4] Group 2: Bond Holder Structure and Changes - Among major institutions in the bond market, only securities companies and foreign institutions saw a decrease in bond custody, while other institutions reported increases [5] - Policy banks, commercial banks, and non-legal entity products increased their holdings in interest rate bonds and credit bonds, while reducing interbank certificates of deposit [5] - The custody of government bonds continued to increase, with policy banks and commercial banks consistently adding to their holdings, while securities companies significantly reduced theirs [5] Group 3: Bond Market Leverage Observation - The balance of repurchase agreements decreased month-on-month, leading to a decline in the bond market leverage ratio [6] - As of the end of November 2025, the estimated balance of repurchase agreements was 11.05 trillion yuan, down by 360.125 billion yuan, with a leverage ratio of 106.61%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points month-on-month [6]

"金融总量数据充分体现了适度宽松的货币政策状态。"业内专家表示，当前社会融资规模和M2增速比 名义GDP增速高出约一倍，充分体现了适度宽松的货币政策状态，为经济高质量发展营造了适宜的金融 总量环境。 积极财政政策发力 支撑金融总量合理增长 业内专家表示，今年以来，宏观政策加大逆周期调节力度，对提振内需、稳定经济发挥了积极作用，也 为金融总量合理增长提供了支撑。特别是随着财政赤字率提升，政府债券对社会融资规模的贡献度明显 提高。数据显示，今年新增政府债务总规模11.86万亿元，比去年增加2.9万亿元，普通国债、特别国债 和地方政府专项债额度都明显增加，相应带动政府债券在社会融资规模中占比提升。 "政府债券发行节奏明显提前，实现了早发行、早使用、早见效。"有业内人士表示，目前1.3万亿元的 超长期特别国债已全部发行完毕，2万亿元用于偿还存量隐性债务的再融资专项债和4.4万亿元主要用于 项目建设的新增专项债也已基本发完。近期财政部宣布提前下达2026年新增地方政府专项债务限额，会 更好衔接岁末年初的项目资金建设需求。初步测算，今年我国政府债券净融资额有望突破12万亿元，政 府债券融资占社会融资规模增量比重达四成。政 ...

有关专家表示，近年来，中国人民银行不断丰富工具箱，发挥货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功 能，持续引导金融机构提升金融产品和服务对经济结构转型升级的适配性，特别是围绕做好金融"五篇 大文章"以及支持扩大内需等要求，把更多信贷资源投向国民经济重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节，促 进金融与实体经济良性互动。 "积极发展股权、债券等直接融资，是'十五五'规划建议锚定加快建设金融强国目标作出的明确部 署。"业内专家表示，直接融资具有风险共担、利益共享与长期陪伴的特征，与高成长、重研发、轻资 产的新动能领域更为契合，未来将在金融体系中发挥更重要的作用。 贷款规模保持合理增长、质效提升 12月12日，央行发布最新金融统计数据。数据显示，截至2025年11月末，广义货币（M2）余额 336.99万亿元，同比增长8.0%，比上年同期高0.9个百分点，在上年同期基数提高的背景下，仍保持较 高增速；狭义货币（M1）余额112.89万亿元，同比增长4.9%；流通中货币（M0）余额13.74万亿元，同 比增长10.6%。社会融资规模存量440.07万亿元，同比增长8.5%，比上年同期高0.7个百分点。1至11 月，社会融资规模增量为33.3 ...

证券研究报告 | 固定收益 gszqdatemark 2025 12 13 年 月 日 固定收益点评 融资依然存在放缓压力 11 月贷款增速继续放缓，居民贷款连续负增长，票据冲量特征明显。11 月新增信贷 3900 亿元，同比少增 1900 亿元，新增信贷规模已连续 5 个 月同比少增。从分项来看，信贷增长依然依赖于票据冲量，居民贷款及企 业中长期贷款新增规模同比均延续少增态势。11 月企业信贷当月新增 6100 亿元，同比增加 3600 亿元，主要得益于短期贷款的增加。其中企业 中长期贷款当月新增 1700 亿元，同比少增 400 亿元；而票据融资当月新 增 3342 亿元，同比多增 2119 亿元。居民贷款方面，11 月居民贷款新增 -2063 亿元，同比多减 4763 亿元。其中居民中长期贷款当月新增 100 亿 元，同比少增 2900 亿元；居民短贷当月新增-2158 亿元，同比多减 1788 亿元。居民贷款已连续两个月新增为负，且同比连续 5 个月同比少增，这 与地产销售放缓一致。 社融同比小幅多增，增速保持平稳。11 月新增社融 2.49 万亿元，同比多 增 1597 亿元，社融存量同比增长 8. ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the banking sector [6] Core Insights - The growth rate of social financing is stabilizing, with a year-on-year increase of 8.5% in November 2025, remaining unchanged from the previous month. Excluding government bonds, the growth rate is 6.0%, which is an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [6] - New social financing in November amounted to 2.49 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 159.7 billion yuan, primarily supported by corporate bond issuance, while credit and government bonds showed negative growth [6] - The report highlights a trend of short-term borrowing among enterprises, with corporate loans increasing by 610 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 360 billion yuan [6][4] Summary by Sections 1. Social Financing Data - In November, the total social financing growth rate was 8.5%, with a new social financing addition of 2.49 trillion yuan, up 159.7 billion yuan year-on-year. The growth rate excluding government bonds was 6.0% [6][2] - Corporate bond financing net increased by 416.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 178.8 billion yuan, primarily driven by state-owned enterprises [6][4] 2. Credit and Loan Trends - The report indicates a weak increase in credit, with November's RMB loan growth rate at 6.4%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. New loans for the month totaled 390 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 190 billion yuan [6] - Personal loans decreased by 206.3 billion yuan, with short-term loans down by 215.8 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating pressure on both short-term and medium-to-long-term loans [4][6] 3. Deposit Trends - RMB deposit growth rate in November was 7.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, with new deposits amounting to 1.41 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 760 billion yuan [6] - The report notes a slowdown in deposit migration, with corporate deposits increasing by 645.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 94.7 billion yuan [6][4] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three investment themes: identifying banks with potential for performance growth, emphasizing banks with convertible bond expectations, and continuing dividend strategies [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In November 2025, new RMB loans were 390 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 190 billion yuan, and the credit balance growth rate dropped to 6.4%. New social financing scale was 2.4885 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 159.7 billion yuan, and the stock growth rate of social financing remained at 8.5%. The year - on - year growth rate of M2 decreased from 8.2% to 8.0% due to the base effect, and the growth rate of M1 under the new caliber dropped from 6.2% to 4.9%. Overall, credit performance in November was weak, off - balance - sheet bills slightly supplemented, with the household sector being the main drag. The "shopping festival" effect had limited impact, and the marginal effect of the real estate sprint weakened. Social financing growth was maintained due to corporate bond issuance, and the M2 growth rate declined slightly, with non - bank deposits and household deposits all decreasing year - on - year [1][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Credit: The household sector performed averagely, and the corporate sector was relatively better - **Household sector**: In November, household short - term loans decreased by 215.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 178.8 billion yuan, remaining significantly below the seasonal level. The "shopping festival" effect on household consumption was limited. Household medium - and long - term loans increased by 10 billion yuan, slightly recovering from the previous month but still 290 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The real estate sales sprint had limited results, and the second - hand housing market continued to decline [2][10]. - **Corporate sector**: In November, corporate medium - and long - term loans increased by 170 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 40 billion yuan. The pull of policy - based financial instruments was limited, and it was the economic "off - season" at the end of the year, so it was difficult for corporate medium - and long - term loans to have significant increments. Corporate short - term loans were close to the seasonal level, and on - balance - sheet bills slightly supplemented. Bill financing increased by 334.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 211.9 billion yuan. The demand for low - price "ticket grabbing" was limited [2][11][18]. 3.2 Social Financing: Government bonds had a high base at the end of the year, and corporate bonds increased - **Government bonds**: In November, the issuance scale of government bonds increased, with new government bonds reaching 1.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 104.8 billion yuan. In December, affected by the base effect, the net financing of government bonds was expected to be 0.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8 trillion yuan, and the social financing growth rate might fall to around 8.2% by the end of the year [3][22]. - **Corporate bonds and entrusted loans**: After the policy - based financial instruments were fully disbursed, entrusted loans turned negative, with a decrease of 18.8 billion yuan in November. November was the "peak season" for corporate bond issuance, with new corporate bonds reaching 416.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 178.8 billion yuan. Some enterprises replaced loans with bonds after the bond yields dropped significantly in October [3][25][28]. 3.3 Deposits: M1 growth rate declined, and non - bank deposits weakened - **M1**: The new - caliber M1 increased less month - on - month compared with the same period last year, and the M2 - M1 gap widened slightly. In November, the new - caliber M1 increased by 893.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3 trillion yuan, and the year - on - year growth rate dropped from 6.2% to 4.9% [4][27]. - **M2 components**: Non - bank deposits grew more slowly, and household deposits were slightly lower than the historical average. In November, non - bank deposits increased by 80 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 100 billion yuan; household deposits increased by 670 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 120 billion yuan. The process of household deposits moving to non - bank deposits slowed down during the volatile adjustment of the equity market since November [4][34].

11 月社融存量增速持平于 8.5% 11 月新增社融 2.49 万亿，同比多增 1597 亿；较过去五年同期均值 2.3 万亿相比，今年 11 月新增社融规模与历史均 值相差不算大，落在过去五年同期新增规模的上沿。社融存量增速本月短暂持稳于 10 月水平，依然为 8.5%。 表外融资是本月社融同比多增的主要贡献项之一，企业债券是本月社融多增的另一支撑项 11 月表外融资项中的信托贷款、未贴现银票均同比多增，对社融形成支撑。2020 年以来 11 月新增信托贷款规模均较 10 月回落，本月走势反季节性，或与近期落地的新型政策性金融工具支持项目有关。此外，11 月企业债券新增 1788 亿至 4169 亿，新增规模为 2020 年以来同期新高，是直接融资项目中唯一多增的一项，也对社融形成支撑。 社融总量和信贷结构走势分化 虽然 11 月社融总体表现不差，但 11 月信贷仍然偏弱。其中企业部门信贷同比多增 3600 亿至 6100 亿，主要发力项是 企业短贷和票融，企业中长贷同比少增；居民部门信贷更是历史上同期首次负增长。 新增企业中长贷为 2016 年以来同期新低。今年企业部门信贷同比多增的原因之一在于 202 ...

11月新增社融约2.5万亿，同比小幅多增1597亿元，对应单月社融增 速持平于8.5%。结构上，少增部分主要是政府债和信贷，政府债少 增1048亿元，其次是人民币贷款同比少增1163亿元。其他方面多同 比多增，其中：企业债券受益于科创债延续多增以及债贷相对性价 比的提升（1YLPR-1YAA+中短票收益率之差10-11月整体上升）， 实现同比多增1788亿元；非标融资在低基数下同比多增1328亿元， 人民币升值背景下外币贷款同比多增246亿元。 25年11月金融数据：社融改善，信贷和存款仍 有待修复 2025年12月13日 事项：2025年12月12日，央行发布25年11月金融数据，新增社融 24885亿，同比多增1597亿元，高于wind市场预期的2.02万亿；信贷 口径，新增人民币贷款3900亿元，同比少增1900亿元，较市场预期 低1143亿元。 1 社融同比多增，主要是非标融资+企业债券多增贡献 3 存款活化趋势+流失压力，M1-M2剪刀差回落，存款结构上回落 分布相对均衡 M1、M2增速延续回落，M1-M2增速剪刀差下降。10月基数效应消退 后，M1增速重新回到回落区间，11月M1增速进一步回落1. ...

● 本报记者彭扬 中国人民银行12月12日发布的数据显示，11月末，社会融资规模同比增长8.5%，广义货币供应量(M2) 同比增长8%，继续保持较高增速。专家表示，当前社会融资规模和M2增速比名义GDP增速高出约一 倍，充分体现了适度宽松的货币政策状态，为经济高质量发展营造了适宜的金融总量环境。 政府债券对社融贡献度明显提高 社融方面，数据显示，11月末，社会融资规模存量440.07万亿元，同比增长8.5%，比上年同期高0.7个 百分点；前十一个月，社会融资规模增量累计为33.39万亿元，比上年同期多3.99万亿元。 积极的财政政策支撑金融总量合理增长。专家表示，今年以来，宏观政策加大逆周期调节力度，对提振 内需、稳定经济发挥了积极作用，也为金融总量合理增长提供了支撑。特别是随着财政赤字率提升，政 府债券对社会融资规模的贡献度明显提高。 贷款增速回落是多方面因素作用的结果。市场人士分析，目前社会融资规模、M2增速保持在8%左右， 相比之下贷款增速略低一些。这主要与多元化融资方式对银行贷款的替代有关，也与地方化债和中小银 行改革化险的下拉作用有关。 有研究测算，去年以来，地方政府发行4万亿元特殊再融资债券，其中 ...

本报记者 刘琪 12月12日，中国人民银行发布2025年11月份金融统计数据报告。数据显示，11月末，社会融资规模存量为440.07万亿元， 同比增长8.5%，增速比上年同期高0.7个百分点；今年前11个月，社会融资规模增量累计为33.39万亿元，比上年同期多3.99万 亿元。 积极的财政政策支撑了金融总量合理增长。业内专家对《证券日报》记者表示，今年以来，宏观政策加大逆周期调节力 度，对提振内需、稳定经济发挥了积极作用，也为金融总量合理增长提供了支撑。特别是随着财政赤字率提升，政府债券对社 会融资规模的贡献度明显提高。 今年新增政府债务总规模11.86万亿元，比去年增加2.9万亿元，普通国债、特别国债和地方政府专项债额度都明显增加， 相应带动政府债券在社会融资规模中占比提升。 除政府债券之外，企业债券、股权融资等其他直接融资渠道也在加快发展。数据显示，今年前11个月，社会融资规模中企 业债券净融资2.24万亿元，同比多3125亿元；非金融企业境内股票融资4204亿元，同比多1788亿元。 此外，数据显示，11月末，M2余额336.99万亿元，同比增长8%，比上年同期高0.9个百分点，在上年同期基数提高的背景 ...