每经记者｜李可愚 每经编辑｜王可然 近日公布的2018年上半年国民经济运行数据显示，基础设施投资（不含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供 应业）同比增长7.3%，增速比1~5月份回落2.1个百分点。 在上半年基建投资增速趋缓的大背景下，下半年地方融资和基建投资将面临怎样的态势？7月17日，在 由瑞银举办的"下半年中国宏观经济展望"会议上，瑞银亚洲经济研究联席主管、中国首席经济学家汪涛 对《每日经济新闻》记者表示，在地方融资"堵后门"的同时，应该开一定的"前门"，应该加大地方政府 债务和专项债的发行力度，使得它们不要走更多更隐蔽的"后门"。 而接下来，又该如何协调去杠杆和保证正常融资需求之间的关系？对此，汪涛认为，对地方政府债务的 控制肯定是正确的，这是降低金融风险的方向。 不过，地方政府既然有很多基建，包括PPP项目，如果控制影子信贷或其他各方面的融资，那么在"堵 后门"的同时就应该开一定的"前门"，地方政府债务（显性债务）、专项债，应该加大发行力度，使它 们不要走更多更隐蔽的"后门"。"我们认为这方面对PPP项目、对地方融资渠道可能也会有一定调整，使 得下半年，尤其四季度之后基建投资可能走稳。"汪涛这样向记者表示 ...

全球资产管理巨头先锋集团（Vanguard）认为，人工智能基础设施的"大规模"支出热潮将推动美国经济 强劲增长，美联储降息幅度将远低于华尔街预期。 最近在接受英国《金融时报》采访时，该公司固定收益主管Sara Devereux预计，在今秋两次25个基点降 息后，美联储将仅再降息一至两次。 这一鹰派预测与市场押注形成鲜明对比。投资者目前预期美联储到2026年底将降息三至四次，而管理着 2.8万亿美元资产的Devereux表示"市场对美联储降息的定价过多"。她预计利率可能在"明年年中"达到中 性水平。 Devereux指出，今年AI资本支出增长约8%，这一"大幅增长"将在2026年为经济增长提供支撑，从而限 制美联储在不引发通胀的情况下放松政策的空间。与此同时，她警告企业债券市场面临供应过剩压力， 但认为近期违约事件属于个别现象。 AI支出热潮重塑增长预期 先锋集团基于AI基础设施支出的持续增长大幅上调了美国GDP预测。Devereux表示，公司预计美国今年 经济增长1.9%，但到2026年将加速至2.25%。 "我认为这个财报季最大的启示可能就是AI资本支出，"Devereux说，"我们大幅上调了GDP预测，主 ...

【宏观周报20251116】国内社融及经济数据显示内需增长有所放 # 朱枭鹏，Z0015158 日期: 2025-11-16 【宏观周报20251116】国内社融及经济数据显示内需增长有所放缓 【宏观总结20251116】 国内经济:国内10月经济数据显示内需偏弱 11月14日，国家统计局公布数据显示，国内10月内需呈现内需放缓迹象。 10月社会消费品零售总额同比增长2. %。连续五个月下行且增速较5月份这一年内高点回 落4.5个百分点，一是商品零售继续走弱，商品零售增速2.8V，前值3.38; 二是服务零售和餐饮回升，消费结构优化趋势未改、但总量修复仍需政策支持。投资硕 方面，1-10月固定资产投资累计增速录得一.7%（前值-0.5%），地产、基建、制造业投资均出现了不同程度的回落。其中，制造业走弱趋势明显。1-10月制造业 投资边际下滑1.38至2.7%，制造业投资连续7个月下滑，且连续5个月下滑大于1%，制造业投资从三季度开始下滑幅度加速，民间投资下降和设备更新边际递减是 主因。地产方面，全国新建商品房销售面积71982万平方米，同比下降6.8%，新建商品房销售额69017亿元，下降9.6%。 国内经济 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in China's monetary structure from a credit-driven model to a new model characterized by "debt supplementing loans" and a focus on direct financing, highlighting the implications for the real economy and capital markets [2][3][16]. Group 1: Monetary Structure Changes - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the increasing importance of direct financing in its recent reports, indicating a significant shift in the financing structure [3][8]. - As of October, the balance of M2 was 335.13 trillion yuan, growing by 8.2% year-on-year, while the social financing scale reached 437.72 trillion yuan, up 8.5% year-on-year, suggesting a "reasonably loose" monetary condition [5]. - The proportion of RMB loans in the social financing scale has decreased, with government bonds and other debt instruments taking a more prominent role, indicating a transition to a "wide currency, weak credit" scenario [5][6]. Group 2: Capital Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a 10-year high, reflecting a bullish sentiment in the market, driven by ample liquidity in the banking system and a need to stimulate effective financing demand [12]. - The report indicates that the increase in direct financing is expected to influence the total monetary volume and financial regulation deeply, suggesting a structural uplift in the financial capital market's weight [12][14]. - However, the article warns that this does not guarantee a complete transition to a market-driven capital structure, as several challenges remain, including the need for stable corporate earnings and changes in household asset allocation behavior [14][16]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article posits that China is at an early stage of rewriting the relationship between monetary policy, fiscal policy, and capital markets, with a structural shift underway but a long way to go before a paradigm shift from credit-driven to capital-driven growth is achieved [17]. - Future observations should focus not only on the macro indicator of direct financing but also on micro-level changes, such as consumer spending behavior and the stability of producer incomes, to assess the effectiveness of this structural transition [17].

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant financing gap in the AI sector, with an estimated $3 trillion in global data center capital expenditures expected by 2028, of which approximately $1.5 trillion will require external financing [6][7] - U.S. life insurance companies have emerged as key marginal buyers in the credit market, contributing to the narrowing of investment-grade corporate bond spreads to their tightest levels since the 1990s [9][10] - The demand for long-duration, higher-yield assets from insurance companies is creating an ideal investor base for AI-related bond issuances, leading to a transformation in traditional corporate bond market rules [9][11] Financing Needs in the AI Sector - Technology companies are facing a financing shortfall in their AI investments, necessitating a shift towards the investment-grade bond market as a primary funding source [7][8] - Major tech firms like Oracle, Meta, and Alphabet have recently issued large-scale bonds to meet their funding needs [8] Role of Life Insurance Companies - U.S. life insurance companies have become the largest marginal buyers in the credit market over the past few years, driven by the need to invest growing retirement funds [9][10] - Record annuity sales in the U.S. reached $345 billion in the first nine months of the year, reflecting the increasing demand for retirement income [9] Market Dynamics and Changes - The traditional corporate bond market is adapting to accommodate more complex financing tools and longer bond maturities due to the evolving needs of investors [11][12] - Insurance companies are increasingly willing to invest in higher-yield, more complex private placements, indicating a shift in investment strategies [11][12] Future Outlook - Analysts expect more AI-related bond issuances as insurance companies become more accepting of higher-risk, higher-reward investments [12] - Ordinary investors may need to reassess their approach to the corporate bond market, as the landscape becomes more complex and requires deeper evaluation [12]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. bond market is experiencing its best performance since 2020, driven by multiple favorable factors including Federal Reserve rate cuts, moderate economic slowdown, and easing inflation pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index has achieved a return of approximately 6.7% year-to-date, marking a potential best annual performance since 2020 [1]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has decreased by nearly 0.5 percentage points this year, closing at 4.149% last Friday [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts have become the core driver of the bond market's rise, as bonds issued at higher rates become more valuable when market expectations shift towards lower rates [2]. - The labor market cooling has prompted the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice this year, with the possibility of further cuts [2]. Group 3: Economic Concerns - Despite concerns over the U.S. budget deficit impacting yields, the decline in interest rates has largely overshadowed these worries [6]. - The U.S. budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 is projected at $1.8 trillion, remaining stable compared to 2024, which could pose future challenges for the bond market [9]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment - Investors are optimistic about the continuation of favorable conditions, believing that despite rising uncertainties, there is still room for further rate declines [9]. - The additional yield spread of investment-grade corporate bonds relative to Treasuries fell to 0.72 percentage points in September, the lowest since the late 1990s, indicating potential overvaluation in the corporate bond market [8].

Financing Trends - In October, net financing through corporate bonds reached CNY 246.9 billion, an increase of CNY 148.2 billion year-on-year[3] - Stock financing added CNY 69.6 billion, up CNY 41.2 billion year-on-year, marking eight consecutive months of year-on-year growth[3] - Trust loans, entrusted loans, and undiscounted bank acceptance bills collectively decreased by CNY 108.5 billion, a reduction of CNY 35.8 billion year-on-year[3] Credit and Loan Performance - New RMB loans in October were CNY 220 billion, down CNY 280 billion year-on-year, with the loan balance growth rate falling to approximately 6.5%[4] - Household loans decreased by CNY 360.4 billion, with short-term loans down CNY 286.6 billion and medium to long-term loans down CNY 70 billion[4] - Corporate loans increased by CNY 350 billion, primarily supported by bill financing, which net increased by CNY 500.6 billion, up CNY 331.2 billion year-on-year[4] Monetary Supply and Growth Rates - The stock of social financing grew by 8.5% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from September[4] - M2 growth rate was 8.2%, down from 8.4% in September, while M1 growth rate fell to 6.2% from 7.2%[4] - The M2-M1 gap slightly increased to 2.0%, compared to 1.2% in the previous month, indicating a continued trend of liquidity preference[6] Deposit Dynamics - Total deposits increased by approximately CNY 610 billion in October, a year-on-year increase of only CNY 10 billion[6] - Household deposits decreased by CNY 1.34 trillion, while non-financial corporate deposits fell by CNY 1.09 trillion[6] - Non-bank financial institution deposits rose by CNY 1.85 trillion, indicating a "deposit migration" phenomenon[6]

Report Overview - The report is a commentary on the financial data for October 2025, focusing on the bond market's expectations of the decline in financial data and the internal structural highlights of the data [1][4]. Report's Core View - The bond market may have anticipated the decline in October's financial data. The economic growth rate is not expected to decline significantly in the second half of 2025, and structural issues such as prices are expected to improve. There will be a continued shift in the stock - bond allocation, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise [4][7]. Summary by Related Catalog Reasons for the Expected Decline in Financial Data - Local government debt resolution will temporarily reduce loan growth. Since 2024, local governments have issued 4 trillion yuan in special refinancing bonds, with about 60 - 70% used to repay bank loans [4]. - The government sector is increasing leverage to offset the de - leveraging of the household sector. As of the end of the third quarter of 2025, the government sector's leverage ratio was 67.5%, up 8.8 pct from the same period in 2024, while the household sector's leverage ratio was 60.4%, down 1.2 pct [4]. - Due to weak demand, household loans declined in October. Household loans decreased by 360.4 billion yuan, with short - term loans down 286.6 billion yuan and long - term loans down 70 billion yuan [4]. - The government bond issuance rhythm in 2025 was advanced compared to 2024, causing a 53.4% year - on - year decline in net government bond financing in October [5]. - The bond market may have anticipated the decline in financial data, as indicated by the significant bill impulse at the end of October and the explanations in the third - quarter monetary policy report [5]. Structural Highlights in the Data - Non - bank institutions' new deposits increased significantly in October, with an 185 billion yuan increase and a 71.3% year - on - year growth, possibly related to the strengthening of the equity market and the increase in residents' willingness to invest in wealth management products [6]. - The credit structure continued to optimize. The balance of inclusive small and micro loans was 35.77 trillion yuan, with an 11.6% year - on - year growth, and the balance of medium - and long - term loans in the manufacturing industry was 14.97 trillion yuan, with a 7.9% year - on - year growth [6]. - 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments have been fully disbursed, with a total project investment of about 7 trillion yuan, which may support subsequent loans [6]. Bond Market Outlook - Against the backdrop of revised economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise. The report maintains the view that in the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate will not decline significantly, structural issues will improve, and there will be a continued shift in the stock - bond allocation [7].

Financial Data Overview - In October 2025, new social financing (社融) amounted to 815 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 597 billion RMB, falling short of the market expectation of 1.53 trillion RMB[2] - New RMB loans totaled 220 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion RMB, also below market expectations by 240 billion RMB[2] Social Financing Contributions - The year-on-year decrease in social financing was primarily due to a reduction in government bond supply, contributing 560.2 billion RMB, and a decrease in RMB loans by 316.6 billion RMB[3] - Corporate bonds increased by 148.2 billion RMB year-on-year, while foreign currency loans and stock financing rose by 51 billion RMB and 41.2 billion RMB, respectively[3] Credit Market Insights - On the credit side, corporate bill financing was the main contributor, with corporate loans increasing by 220 billion RMB, and corporate bill financing rising by 331.2 billion RMB year-on-year[4] - Residential short-term and long-term loans decreased by 335.6 billion RMB and 180 billion RMB, indicating a need for consumer spending stimulation[4] Monetary Supply Trends - M1 growth rate fell by 1.0 percentage points to 6.2%, while M2 growth rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 8.2%[5] - Non-bank deposits increased by 770 billion RMB, while both resident and corporate deposits decreased by 770 billion RMB and 355.3 billion RMB, respectively[5] Market Strategy Outlook - The overall financial data indicates a decline, but the market is expected to maintain a bullish stance on bonds due to stable liquidity and year-end calendar effects[6] - The yield on 10-year government bonds fell slightly to 1.8025% following the release of financial data, reflecting market adjustments[6]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - As of the end of October, the total social financing scale reached 437.72 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, which is 0.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year [3] - The cumulative increase in social financing for the first ten months was 30.9 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 3.83 trillion yuan [3] - The broad money supply (M2) stood at 335.13 trillion yuan, growing by 8.2% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 112 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [3] Group 2: Loan and Interest Rate Trends - The balance of RMB loans reached 270.61 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, and an increase of 14.97 trillion yuan in loans during the first ten months [3] - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in October was 3.1%, approximately 40 basis points lower than the same period last year, while the average interest rate for new personal housing loans was also 3.1%, about 8 basis points lower year-on-year [3] Group 3: Trade and Economic Development - In the first ten months of the year, Shanghai's import and export volume reached 3.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.2%, with exports amounting to 1.6 trillion yuan, up by 10.5% [7] - The Shanghai Free Trade Zone has implemented 80 reform measures for institutional openness, with 77 measures being replicated nationwide or in other free trade zones [9] - ASEAN has maintained its position as China's largest trading partner for agricultural and food products for eight consecutive years, with bilateral trade reaching 513 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [9] Group 4: Infrastructure and Technological Advancements - China completed water conservancy construction investments of 1,009.47 billion yuan in the first ten months, implementing 46,000 various water conservancy projects [10] - The first phase of 6G technology testing has been completed, with over 300 key technology reserves formed, and 57 tests conducted in five major technical directions [10]