1月29日，港股国企ETF（159519）涨超0.6%，市场关注红利与防御属性。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 每日经济新闻 中信建投指出，保险行业2026年预定利率或将保持稳定，调整节奏从快速下行转向温和企稳。虽然在短 期看可能导致负债端面临一定高基数压力，但在居民对储蓄险旺盛需求的支撑下，负债端仍有望实现较 快增长。储蓄险产品作为后资管新规时代少数可提供长期确定收益的金融产品，在净值化转型、非标转 标驱动居民财富配置重构的过程中有望持续承接居民庞大的稳健投资需求。对于香港市场，在美联储降 息背景下，港股市场流动性宽松，关注非银板块向上弹性。1月以来港股市场有所恢复，市场整体跑赢 基准指数，资产端市值增长，资金端成交活跃度上升，南向资金交易占比提升。 港股国企ETF（159519）跟踪的是中证 ...

Core Viewpoint - The key driver for the rise of the Chinese stock market in 2025 is the decline in the risk-free interest rate, which will lead to an overall increase in the valuation of A/H shares [2][5]. Summary by Sections Market Valuation Logic - The main contradiction in market expectations has shifted from economic cycle fluctuations to the decline in discount rates, particularly the risk-free interest rate [2]. - The high opportunity cost over the past three years has hindered investors' willingness to enter the market [2]. Historical Context and Comparisons - Historical examples from Japan and the United States show that when interest rates fall to a certain level, investor interest shifts from fixed-income products to stocks and equity products [3]. - In China, each major market rally has been accompanied by a decline in risk-free interest rates, leading to increased capital inflow into the stock market [4]. Current Market Conditions - The current environment indicates that the conditions for a new round of capital inflow into the Chinese stock market are forming, driven by the decline in long-term bond yields [4]. - The anticipated decline in risk-free rates will likely lead to a broad-based increase in valuations across A/H shares, benefiting both blue-chip and growth stocks [5]. Future Outlook - The research suggests a strategic bullish outlook on China, emphasizing the importance of recognizing the shift in the main contradiction affecting market expectations [2][5].