四季度已过半，券商密集召开年终策略会，探讨下一年度的市场趋势。11月11日，中信建投证券2026年资本市场峰会在北京召开。同日，中信证券、光大证 券、国盛证券也召开秋季/年度策略会。截至当前，还有包括华泰证券、国泰海通、东吴证券在内的多家券商已举办2026年度策略会/投资峰会。整体来看， 多数观点认为2026年A股仍是牛市，或仍以慢牛格局呈现。而在细分赛道上，各家机构观点则有所分化，有观点认为科技板块仍有优势，也有分析人士更看 好能源、消费、地产等顺周期板块。 牛市概念长期逻辑未变 11月11日，中信建投证券2026年资本市场峰会在北京召开。中信建投证券首席经济学家黄文涛进行主旨演讲并提到，"新四牛"概念不仅适合短期，从长期来 看，逻辑也未有变化。 关于2026年股债表现的趋势判断，华泰证券研究所所长、固收首席张继强指出，短期股市或偏向休整，债市胜率略高但赔率一般；而到2026年一季度，股强 于债的概率仍较高。债市面临的主要压力来自基本面预期改善、机构行为调整和股债性价比。不过，鉴于货币政策仍持支持性立场、融资需求仍待恢复，利 率上行空间有限，整体可能呈现震荡略偏弱的格局。 首先是"资金流入牛"。宏观背景方面 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that the trend expectations in the AI industry may intensify fluctuations in the global equity market, presenting opportunities for Chinese equity assets and industrial commodities. It recommends an overweight position in Chinese A-shares and industrial commodities for November [1]. Group 1: Asset Allocation Framework - The company has developed an "all-weather" asset allocation framework consisting of Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA), Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA), and Major Event Review Adjustments to guide investment decisions [1]. - SAA aims to diversify macro risks and set long-term allocation benchmarks to ensure portfolio stability [1]. - TAA employs quantitative methods to identify assets with superior short-term risk-return characteristics and adjusts portfolio weights accordingly to enhance returns [1]. Group 2: Equity Market Outlook - The company maintains an optimistic view on Chinese equities, recommending a 45% allocation to equities in November, with specific overweight positions in A-shares (8.5%) and Hong Kong stocks (8.5%) [2]. - The improvement in China-U.S. bilateral relations is seen as beneficial for the performance of Chinese assets [2]. - Domestic financial conditions are stable, with fiscal and monetary policies having room for easing, which supports the capital market's role in the economy [2]. Group 3: Bond Market Outlook - The company holds a neutral stance on bonds, recommending a 45% allocation, including standard positions in long-term (10%) and short-term (12.5%) government bonds, as well as U.S. Treasury bonds [3]. - The bond market is supported by an imbalance in credit supply and demand, along with stable liquidity [3]. - Geopolitical uncertainties and rising risk aversion are expected to lead to fluctuations in domestic interest rates [3]. Group 4: Commodity Market Outlook - The company adopts a neutral to slightly optimistic view on commodities, recommending a 10% allocation, with standard positions in gold (5%) and industrial commodities (3.75%) [3]. - Industrial metals, particularly copper, may experience performance opportunities due to supply-demand imbalances driven by construction, electric grids, and electric vehicles [3]. - The expansion of AI computing power and modernization of the electric grid are expected to create additional structural demand for copper [3].

格隆汇11月10日｜国泰海通策略首席分析师方奕在社交平台发文称：我们在上周发布了年度策略，继我 们今年判断的年内4000点已经实现，2026中国股市还会再上一个台阶(5200)，科技与非科技都会重估。 近期有些投资人心态有些保守，我们要比共识要乐观的多。 方奕在上周发布的年度策略报告中表示， 2025年中国股市迎来大发展的周期，资本市场改革与经济结构转型交相辉映，这是"转型牛"的典型特 征。2026年中国"转型牛"的升势远未结束，中国经济转型、无风险收益下沉与资本市场改革，放大牛市 思维，市场高度有望超出共识，挑战十年前高(注：沪指的十年前高是2015年6月创造的5178.19点的历 史高位)。 ...

开放式基金周报(20251109) 均衡偏成长风格配置，重视科技兼顾周期消费金融 本报告导读： A 股上涨，电力设备、煤炭和石油石化等行业表现较优，重仓电力设备行业的基金 表现较好，建议风格均衡偏成长，重视科技，兼顾周期消费金融。 投资要点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 基 金 评 价 基 金 周 报 基金评价 /[Table_Date] 2025.11.09 2025-11-10 [Table_Summary] 未来投资策略：均衡偏成长风格配置，重视科技，兼顾周期消费金 融：国泰海通策略团队在《中国转型牛，远望又新峰》中的观点认 为：中国市场重估是广泛的，科技与非科技都有机会，从杠铃策略 转向质量策略。新兴科技是主线，周期消费看转型，继续看好金融 股。从基金配置的角度来看，我们建议后续保持均衡偏成长风格配 置，关注基金经理的产业研究和个股挖掘能力，建议中长期重视科 技主题基金，兼顾金融、周期、消费等板块的结构性机会。债券基 金：根据国泰海通固收团队在《官宣"买卖国债重启"后债市走势再 思考：重配置节奏，轻追逐信息》中的观点，当前至 11 月中上旬可 能仍然处于交易盘活跃期，机构 ...

此外，11月7日，财政部发布2025年上半年中国财政政策执行情况报告，将继续实施好提振消费专项行 动，对重点领域的个人消费贷款和相关行业经营主体贷款给予财政贴息，激发养老、托育等服务消费潜 力。 热门个股方面值得关注的是，大牛股合富中国今日继续涨停，走出10连板，10天累计涨幅达159.73%。 但与火爆的股价表现形成鲜明对比的是合富中国疲软的业绩。当前合富中国的异常交易行为已引起监管 机构的高度关注。（） 记者 | 金珊 孙永乐 编辑 | 曾静娇 11月10日，A股市场早盘震荡下跌，截至收盘，沪指跌0.03%，深成指跌0.59%，创业板指跌2.13%。市 场半日成交额1.45万亿，全市场近3000只个股上涨。热点板块方面，消费、化工等涨幅居前，CPO、人 形机器人等跌幅居前。 | 上证指数 | 深证成指 北证50 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 3996.26 | 13325.35 1515.68 | | | -1.29 -0.03% -78.70 -0.59% -7.06 -0.46% | | | | 科创50 | 万得全A 创业板指 | | | 1390.89 | 3139.88 6 ...

此外，11月7日，财政部发布2025年上半年中国财政政策执行情况报告，将继续实施好提振消费专项行动，对重点领域的个人消费贷款和相关 行业经营主体贷款给予财政贴息，激发养老、托育等服务消费潜力。 记者 | 金珊 孙永乐 11月10日，A股市场早盘震荡下跌， 截至收盘，沪指跌0.03%，深成指跌0.59%，创业板指跌2.13%。市场 半日成交额1.45万亿，全市场近 3000只个股上涨。 热点板块方面，消费、化工等涨幅居前，CPO、人形机器人等跌幅居前。 编辑 | 曾静娇 | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证50 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3996.26 | 13325.35 | 1515.68 | | -1.29 -0.03% -78.70 -0.59% -7.06 -0.46% | | | | 科创50 | 创业板指 | 万得全A | | 1390.89 | 3139.88 | 6374.45 | | -24.80 -1.75% -68.32 -2.13% -12.11 -0.19% | | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证A500 | | 4667.62 | 7293.50 ...

记者丨孙永乐 编辑丨巫燕玲 11月以来，券商2026年度策略会进入密集举办期，研究大咖与资深专家、行业领袖围绕市场热点及2026 年投资策略分享真知灼见，吸引公募、私募、银行、保险、上市公司等各类投资者参与交流。 21世纪经济报道记者注意到，本周已有开源证券、东吴证券、国泰海通证券、华泰证券等4家卖方机构 召开2026年度策略会，对即将到来的2026年的宏观经济形势、"十五五"规划、资本市场投资策略、上市 公司高质量发展前景等进行展望和探讨。 11月4日，东吴证券"冬藏春华，盛世新章"2026年度策略峰会在上海开幕，议题围绕泛AI、创新药、反 内卷等多个热门领域； 11月4日，开源证券召开2026年度策略会，以"乘风破浪，向新而行"为主题，展望2026年宏观经济形 势、"十五五"规划、资本市场投资策略； 据记者不完全统计，进入11月密集举办期，还将有9家券商陆续举办2026年度策略会，包括国盛证券、 中信证券、中信建投证券、光大证券、中金公司、方正证券、东方财富证券、浙商证券、国信证券等。 | | | 11月券商召开年度策略会情况一览 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Core Insights - The 2026 strategy meeting by Guotai Junan Securities emphasizes that the "transformation bull market" in China is far from over, with the potential for market heights to exceed consensus expectations and challenge levels seen a decade ago [1][4] Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - The current Chinese economy is responding to external uncertainties with a focus on high-quality development, positioning itself as a key driver of global economic growth [2] - The macroeconomic landscape for 2026 is characterized by significant growth potential, despite structural disparities in supply and demand, with price stability being crucial for growth [3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The capital market reform in China is accelerating, enhancing the inclusivity, adaptability, attractiveness, and competitiveness of the market, which is expected to lead to a broad revaluation of assets [2] - The focus is shifting from a barbell strategy to a quality strategy, with both technology and non-technology sectors presenting investment opportunities [4] Group 3: Asset Class Insights - The long-term bull market for gold is driven by non-economic factors, indicating a historical shift in its valuation framework [3] - Strategic outlooks for commodities suggest a bullish stance on gold and copper, driven by global credit differentiation and structural demand from AI infrastructure and energy upgrades [5]

【导读】国泰海通举办 2026 年度策略会 中国基金报记者 孙越 近日， 国泰海通证券 举办 2026 年度策略会，本次策略会以 " 启航新征程 " 为主题，就市场热点和 2026 年度投资策略进行深入探讨和 全面展望。 策略会最新观点出炉：宏观层面，资产重构将决胜于 " 价 " ；策略方面， 2026 年中国 " 转型牛 " 的升势远未结束，市场高度有望超出 共识，挑战十年前高。中国资本市场重估是广泛的，科技与非科技都有机会。 中国资本市场机构化、产品化、国际化加速 国泰海通党委副书记、总裁李俊杰 在致辞中表示，当前中国经济正以坚持高质量发展的战略定力积极应对外部环境的不确定性，成为世界 经济增长的重要动力源和稳定锚。 他认为，在此背景下，新一轮资本市场改革聚焦提升制度包容性、适应性、吸引力和竞争力，有望进一步带来中国资产广泛价值重估机 遇。近年来，中国资本市场加速机构化、产品化、国际化，机构投资者等中长期资金 " 压舱石 " 和 " 稳定器 " 作用不断凸显。 他表示，国泰海通持续深化投研能力建设、完善产品服务矩阵，为机构投资者提供了包括投资研究、交易服务、产品代销、资本中介等在 内的一站式、跨领域、全链 ...

Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategy - The article emphasizes the importance of adapting asset allocation strategies in response to the evolving global order and industrial transformations, projecting significant changes by 2026 [2][17]. - It suggests a bullish outlook on Chinese A/H stocks due to accelerated economic transformation and enhanced market resilience against risks [3][8]. - The report anticipates a moderate recovery in the Eurozone economy and a stable outlook for Japanese markets, while recommending a cautious approach to Indian equities due to uncertainties [3][4]. Group 2: Equity Market Insights - The article highlights the potential for a "transformation bull market" in China, driven by capital market reforms and economic restructuring, with expectations for the Shanghai Composite Index to surpass 4000 points [8][9]. - It identifies three main drivers for this transformation: the decline of risk-free returns, significant capital market reforms, and increased certainty in China's economic transition [9][10]. - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as technology, manufacturing, and cyclical consumption, with specific stock picks in internet, robotics, and electric vehicles [10]. Group 3: Bond Market Outlook - The report predicts a slight upward trend in Chinese government bond yields due to a stable yet slightly easing monetary policy, while U.S. Treasury yields are expected to decline moderately [4]. - It notes that the risk appetite is recovering, which may lead to upward pressure on interest rates in China, while U.S. inflation expectations are gradually decreasing [4]. Group 4: Commodity Market Analysis - The article expresses a bullish long-term view on gold, driven by the diversification of global central bank reserves and the weakening of the U.S. dollar [5]. - It indicates that oil prices are under pressure due to oversupply, while copper prices are supported by structural demand from AI infrastructure and grid upgrades [5]. Group 5: Currency and Exchange Rate Trends - The article anticipates a continued weak dollar scenario, with the Chinese yuan expected to stabilize or appreciate slightly due to steady domestic economic momentum [6]. - It highlights potential short-term fluctuations in the dollar due to geopolitical factors and domestic economic conditions [6]. Group 6: Pharmaceutical Sector Insights - The report indicates a significant increase in the market value of pharmaceutical stocks held by public funds, rising from 300.9 billion to 409 billion yuan, reflecting a 35.9% increase [13]. - It notes that the proportion of pharmaceutical stocks in public fund holdings has increased, with chemical preparations and other biological products being the most significant segments [13][14]. - Key stocks in the pharmaceutical sector include Heng Rui Medicine, Innovent Biologics, and Mindray Medical, with substantial increases in their market values [14].