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中枢1.9%的焦虑
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-07-08 15:25
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of July 7, 2025, the valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise real estate bonds and industrial bonds in the outstanding credit bonds are generally higher than those of other varieties. Compared with last week, the yields of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds and real estate bonds have generally declined, and the short - end varieties of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds have a larger decline. Among them, the 1 - 2 - year public and 1 - year private non - perpetual bonds of private enterprises have declined by 19.6BP and 14.2BP respectively. The 2 - year private enterprise real estate bonds are more popular [3][8]. - In financial bonds, the varieties with high valuation yields and spreads include urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools and leasing company bonds. Compared with last week, the yields of financial bonds have generally declined. For example, the yields of 3 - 5 - year non - perpetual leasing bonds have declined by more than 8.5BP, and the yields of 1 - year joint - stock bank secondary perpetual bonds have declined by nearly 13BP [4][8]. - In public offering urban investment bonds, the weighted average valuation yields of Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are both below 2.3%. The urban investment bonds with yields exceeding 4.5% are in prefecture - level cities and districts and counties of Guizhou. The spreads in Yunnan, Gansu and other regions are also relatively high. Compared with last week, the yields of public offering urban investment bonds have basically declined, and the average yield of varieties within 1 year has declined by 11.5BP [2][16]. - In private placement urban investment bonds, the weighted average valuation yields of coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong and Fujian are below 2.7%. The varieties with yields higher than 4% appear in prefecture - level cities of Guizhou and Shaanxi. The spreads in Yunnan, Gansu, Heilongjiang and other regions are also relatively high. Compared with last week, the yields of private placement urban investment bonds have mainly declined [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Outstanding Credit Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise real estate bonds and industrial bonds are generally higher than those of other varieties. The yields of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds and real estate bonds have generally declined, and the short - end varieties of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds have a larger decline. The yields of financial bonds have also generally declined [3][4][8]. - The data in the table shows the weighted average valuation yields, spreads, and their changes compared with last week of different types of bonds (including urban investment bonds, non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds, real estate bonds, financial bonds, etc.) under different issuance methods (public offering and private placement) and different maturities [9][12][13]. 2. Public Offering Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields of Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are below 2.3%, while those in Guizhou's prefecture - level cities and districts and counties exceed 4.5%. The spreads in Yunnan, Gansu and other regions are relatively high. The yields have basically declined compared with last week, and the 1 - year varieties have an average decline of 11.5BP. The varieties with a large decline in yields include 1 - year non - perpetual bonds of Jiangsu provincial level, 1 - year perpetual bonds of Hebei provincial level, etc. [2][16]. - The table shows the weighted average valuation yields, spreads, and their changes compared with last week of public offering urban investment bonds at different administrative levels in various regions [17][19][21]. 3. Private Placement Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields of coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong and Fujian are below 2.7%. The varieties with yields higher than 4% appear in prefecture - level cities of Guizhou and Shaanxi. The spreads in Yunnan, Gansu, Heilongjiang and other regions are relatively high. The yields have mainly declined compared with last week, and the varieties with a large decline in yields include 1 - year perpetual bonds of Shandong district and county level, etc. [2]. - The table shows the weighted average valuation yields, spreads of private placement urban investment bonds at different administrative levels in various regions [25][28].
票息资产热度图谱:极致 2.0%的顾虑
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-07-01 11:19
公募城投债中,江浙两省加权平均估值收益率均在 2.4%以下;收益率超过 4.5%的城投债出现在贵州地级市及区县级; 其余区域中,广西、云南、甘肃等地的利差也较高。与上周相比,公募城投债收益率多有小幅上行。具体来看,上行 幅度较大的品种的包括 2-3 年四川省级非永续、3-5 年安徽省级非永续、1 年内贵州地级市非永续、1 年内河北省级永 续城投债等。 私募城投债中,上海、浙江、广东、福建等沿海省份的加权平均估值收益率在 2.8%以下;收益率高于 4%的品种出现 在贵州地级市、陕西地级市、云南地级市;其余的黑龙江、青海、甘肃等地的利差也较高。与上周相比,私募城投债 中各品种收益率以上行为主。具体来看,收益率上行幅度较大的有 3-5 年广西地级市非永续、1-2 年陕西区县级非永 续、1-2 年吉林地级市非永续、3-5 年辽宁地级市非永续城投债,分别对应上行 9.9BP、9.7BP、8.0BP 和 7.7BP。 产业债: 民企产业债和地产债估值收益率及利差整体高于其他品种。与上周相比,非金融非地产类产业债收益率多有调整,其 中 1-2 年民企私募非永续品种上行幅度相对更大,平均上行 9.7BP;地产债中,国企私募非 ...
2.3%以上的意外拉久期
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-17 14:28
截至 2025 年 6 月 16 日,存量信用债估值及利差分布特征如下: 公募城投债中,江浙两省加权平均估值收益率均在 2.4%以下;收益率超过 4.5%的城投债出现在贵州地级市及区县级; 其余区域中,云南、甘肃等地的利差也较高。与上周相比,公募城投债收益率普遍下行,3-5年品种平均下行达到3.7BP。 具体来看,收益下行幅度较大的品种的包括 1 年内内蒙古地级市非永续、1-2 年吉林区县级非永续、1-2 年黑龙江地 级市非永续及 3-5 年吉林地级市非永续城投债。 私募城投债中,上海、浙江、广东、福建等沿海省份的加权平均估值收益率在 2.8%以下;收益率高于 4%的品种出现 在贵州、陕西地级市、云南地级市及区县级;其余的甘肃、黑龙江等地的利差也较高。与上周相比,私募城投债收益 率基本下行,2-3 年、3-5 年品种平均下行 3BP、5BP 之多。具体来看,收益率下行幅度较大的有 1 年内辽宁地级市非 永续、3-5 年广西区县级非永续、3-5 年青海区县级非永续、3-5 年河北地级市永续债,分别对应下行 20.6BP、19.9BP、 18.6BP 和 13.7BP。 存量信用债中,民企地产债和产业债估值收益率 ...