民企地产债

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截至2025年7月21日,存量信用债估值及利差分布特征如下:
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-07-22 14:20
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of July 21, 2025, the valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise real estate bonds and industrial bonds in the outstanding credit bonds are generally higher than other varieties. Compared with last week, the yields of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds have all declined, with private enterprise bonds declining more than state - owned enterprise bonds, and short - term bonds being more favored than those over 1 year. Real estate bond yields mainly declined, with the yield of public non - perpetual bonds within 1 year dropping by more than 5BP. In financial bonds, urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools and leasing company bonds have relatively high valuation yields and spreads. Compared with last week, financial bond yields generally declined, with some adjustments in 3 - 5 - year non - perpetual varieties [2][3][8] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Overall Outstanding Credit Bonds - The valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise real estate bonds and industrial bonds are higher than other varieties. Non - financial non - real estate industrial bond yields declined, with private enterprise bonds having a larger decline. Real estate bond yields mainly declined, and 1 - year - within public non - perpetual real estate bonds had a yield reduction of over 5BP. Financial bond yields generally declined, with certain adjustments in 3 - 5 - year non - perpetual varieties [2][3][8] 2. Urban Investment Bonds Public Urban Investment Bonds - In Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, the weighted average valuation yields are below 2.3%. Yields over 4.5% are in Guizhou's district - level. Yunnan, Gansu and other regions have high spreads. Compared with last week, yields generally declined, with an average decline of less than 2BP. Larger decline varieties include 2 - 3 - year and 3 - 5 - year non - perpetual bonds of Guangdong provincial level, 2 - 3 - year perpetual bonds of Shaanxi district - level, and 1 - 2 - year non - perpetual bonds of Yunnan prefectural - level [2][15][16] Private Urban Investment Bonds - Coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian have weighted average valuation yields below 2.8%. Yields higher than 3.5% are in Shaanxi prefectural - level, Guizhou and Yunnan prefectural - and district - levels. Gansu, Heilongjiang and other regions have high spreads. Compared with last week, yields mainly declined. Larger decline varieties include 2 - 3 - year non - perpetual bonds of Tianjin provincial level, 1 - year - within non - perpetual bonds of Guizhou district - level, 3 - 5 - year perpetual bonds of Shaanxi prefectural - level, and 2 - 3 - year non - perpetual bonds of Heilongjiang prefectural - level, with declines of 10.5BP, 11.1BP, 21.8BP, and 13.5BP respectively [2][24][25] 3. Non - Financial Non - Real Estate Industrial Bonds - Yields declined compared with last week, with private enterprise bonds having a larger decline than state - owned enterprise bonds, and short - term bonds being more popular [3][8] 4. Real Estate Bonds - Yields mainly declined, and the yield of 1 - year - within public non - perpetual bonds dropped by more than 5BP [3][8] 5. Financial Bonds - Valuation yields and spreads are relatively high in urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools and leasing company bonds. Yields generally declined compared with last week. 1 - year - within private and 2 - 3 - year public perpetual leasing bonds had large declines, while 3 - 5 - year non - perpetual varieties had adjustments. Commercial financial bond yields declined within 4BP, and 3 - 5 - year urban and rural commercial bank varieties had callbacks. Short - duration bank sub - bonds performed better than medium - and long - term ones [4][8]
中枢1.9%的焦虑
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-07-08 15:25
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of July 7, 2025, the valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise real estate bonds and industrial bonds in the outstanding credit bonds are generally higher than those of other varieties. Compared with last week, the yields of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds and real estate bonds have generally declined, and the short - end varieties of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds have a larger decline. Among them, the 1 - 2 - year public and 1 - year private non - perpetual bonds of private enterprises have declined by 19.6BP and 14.2BP respectively. The 2 - year private enterprise real estate bonds are more popular [3][8]. - In financial bonds, the varieties with high valuation yields and spreads include urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools and leasing company bonds. Compared with last week, the yields of financial bonds have generally declined. For example, the yields of 3 - 5 - year non - perpetual leasing bonds have declined by more than 8.5BP, and the yields of 1 - year joint - stock bank secondary perpetual bonds have declined by nearly 13BP [4][8]. - In public offering urban investment bonds, the weighted average valuation yields of Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are both below 2.3%. The urban investment bonds with yields exceeding 4.5% are in prefecture - level cities and districts and counties of Guizhou. The spreads in Yunnan, Gansu and other regions are also relatively high. Compared with last week, the yields of public offering urban investment bonds have basically declined, and the average yield of varieties within 1 year has declined by 11.5BP [2][16]. - In private placement urban investment bonds, the weighted average valuation yields of coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong and Fujian are below 2.7%. The varieties with yields higher than 4% appear in prefecture - level cities of Guizhou and Shaanxi. The spreads in Yunnan, Gansu, Heilongjiang and other regions are also relatively high. Compared with last week, the yields of private placement urban investment bonds have mainly declined [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Outstanding Credit Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise real estate bonds and industrial bonds are generally higher than those of other varieties. The yields of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds and real estate bonds have generally declined, and the short - end varieties of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds have a larger decline. The yields of financial bonds have also generally declined [3][4][8]. - The data in the table shows the weighted average valuation yields, spreads, and their changes compared with last week of different types of bonds (including urban investment bonds, non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds, real estate bonds, financial bonds, etc.) under different issuance methods (public offering and private placement) and different maturities [9][12][13]. 2. Public Offering Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields of Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are below 2.3%, while those in Guizhou's prefecture - level cities and districts and counties exceed 4.5%. The spreads in Yunnan, Gansu and other regions are relatively high. The yields have basically declined compared with last week, and the 1 - year varieties have an average decline of 11.5BP. The varieties with a large decline in yields include 1 - year non - perpetual bonds of Jiangsu provincial level, 1 - year perpetual bonds of Hebei provincial level, etc. [2][16]. - The table shows the weighted average valuation yields, spreads, and their changes compared with last week of public offering urban investment bonds at different administrative levels in various regions [17][19][21]. 3. Private Placement Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields of coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong and Fujian are below 2.7%. The varieties with yields higher than 4% appear in prefecture - level cities of Guizhou and Shaanxi. The spreads in Yunnan, Gansu, Heilongjiang and other regions are relatively high. The yields have mainly declined compared with last week, and the varieties with a large decline in yields include 1 - year perpetual bonds of Shandong district and county level, etc. [2]. - The table shows the weighted average valuation yields, spreads of private placement urban investment bonds at different administrative levels in various regions [25][28].
2.3%以上的意外拉久期
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-17 14:28
Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - As of June 16, 2025, the valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise real estate bonds and industrial bonds in the outstanding credit bonds are generally higher than those of other varieties. Compared with last week, the yields of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds mostly declined, while those of some bonds such as private perpetual bonds of state - owned enterprises within 1 year and 3 - 5 years increased. The yields of real estate bonds also mainly declined, especially those of private public non - perpetual bonds within 1 - 2 years, with a yield reduction of more than 4.5BP. In financial bonds, the varieties with higher valuation yields and spreads are leasing company bonds and capital supplementary tools of urban and rural commercial banks. More than half of the yields of financial bonds declined compared with last week [3][8]. - In public urban investment bonds, the weighted average valuation yields in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are both below 2.4%. The urban investment bonds with yields exceeding 4.5% are in prefecture - level and district - county - level areas of Guizhou. The spreads in other regions such as Yunnan and Gansu are also relatively high. Compared with last week, the yields of public urban investment bonds generally declined, with an average decline of 3.7BP for 3 - 5 - year varieties [2][14]. - In private urban investment bonds, the weighted average valuation yields in coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian are below 2.8%. The varieties with yields higher than 4% appear in prefecture - level areas of Guizhou and Shaanxi, and prefecture - level and district - county - level areas of Yunnan. The spreads in other areas such as Gansu and Heilongjiang are also relatively high. Compared with last week, the yields of private urban investment bonds basically declined, with an average decline of 3BP and 5BP for 2 - 3 - year and 3 - 5 - year varieties respectively [2][23]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chart 1: Weighted Average Valuation Yield of Outstanding Credit Bonds (as of June 16, unit: %) - Displays the weighted average valuation yields of different bond types (such as urban investment bonds, non - financial non - real estate industrial bonds, real estate bonds, etc.) in different time periods (1 year or less, 1 - 2 years, 2 - 3 years, 3 - 5 years) and different issuance methods (private or public) [10]. Chart 2: Weighted Average Spread of Outstanding Credit Bonds (as of June 16, unit: BP) - Presents the weighted average spreads of different bond types in different time periods and issuance methods, with the calculation benchmark being the same - term government - developed bonds [11]. Chart 3: Change in Weighted Average Valuation Yield of Outstanding Credit Bonds Compared with Last Week (as of June 16, unit: BP) - Shows the changes in the weighted average valuation yields of different bond types compared with last week, calculated as (this week's weighted average valuation yield - last week's weighted average valuation yield) * 100 [12]. Chart 4: Change in Weighted Average Spread of Outstanding Credit Bonds Compared with Last Week (as of June 16, unit: BP) - Illustrates the changes in the weighted average spreads of different bond types compared with last week, calculated as this week's weighted average spread - last week's weighted average spread [13]. Chart 5: Weighted Average Valuation Yield of Public Urban Investment Bonds (as of June 16, unit: %) - Provides the weighted average valuation yields of public urban investment bonds in different administrative levels (provincial, prefecture - level, district - county - level) of various provinces [15]. Chart 6: Weighted Average Spread of Public Urban Investment Bonds (as of June 16, unit: BP) - Displays the weighted average spreads of public urban investment bonds in different administrative levels of various provinces, with the calculation benchmark being the same - term government - developed bonds [17]. Chart 7: Change in Weighted Average Valuation Yield of Public Urban Investment Bonds Compared with Last Week (as of June 16, unit: BP) - Shows the changes in the weighted average valuation yields of public urban investment bonds in different administrative levels of various provinces compared with last week [20]. Chart 8: Weighted Average Valuation Yield of Private Urban Investment Bonds (as of June 16, unit: %) - Presents the weighted average valuation yields of private urban investment bonds in different administrative levels of various provinces [24]. Chart 9: Weighted Average Spread of Private Urban Investment Bonds (as of June 16, unit: BP) - Displays the weighted average spreads of private urban investment bonds in different administrative levels of various provinces, with the calculation benchmark being the same - term government - developed bonds [26].
信用策略备忘录:高波动率与防守策略要点
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-05-17 13:56
Group 1: Quantitative Credit Strategy - The recent performance of perpetual bonds and broker bonds strategies has shown a high success rate as of May 9 [2] - Short-term strategies yielded limited excess returns, while mid to long-term strategies, excluding city investment duration and barbell strategies, showed positive excess returns [2][12] - Financial bonds and non-financial credit heavy strategies have widened the gap in cumulative excess returns over the past four weeks, particularly with increased yield elasticity in financial bond duration strategies [2][12] Group 2: Duration Tracking of Various Bonds - As of May 9, the weighted average transaction duration for city investment bonds and industrial bonds reached 2.09 years and 2.51 years respectively, both above the 90th percentile since March 2021 [3][15] - The weighted average transaction durations for secondary capital bonds, perpetual bonds, and general commercial bank bonds are 4.19 years, 3.59 years, and 2.30 years respectively [3][15] - Other financial bonds such as securities company bonds and insurance company bonds have varying durations, with some at historically low levels and others at high levels [3][15] Group 3: Yield Heatmap of Credit Assets - As of May 12, the valuation yield and spread of private enterprise real estate bonds are higher than other types of bonds [4][17] - Non-financial, non-real estate industrial bonds saw a yield decline of around 10 basis points, particularly in the one-year category [4][18] - Financial bonds with high valuation yields include leasing company bonds and securities subordinate bonds, with significant yield declines noted in certain categories [4][18] Group 4: Long-term Credit Bond Insights - The market shows weak willingness to increase long-duration credit bonds, despite the approaching low yields of government bonds and short-term assets [5][20] - Transaction volumes for mainstream long-duration industrial bonds have increased but remain below levels seen in late March, indicating insufficient trading sentiment to support long-term bond markets [5][20] - The recent week saw a decline in the transaction share of long-term credit bonds, falling below 70% [5][20] Group 5: Local Government Bond Supply and Trading Insights - The average coupon rates for 10-year, 20-year, and 30-year local government bonds are 1.79%, 2.07%, and 2.05% respectively, with varying spreads [6][23] - The liquidity in the interbank market remains reasonably ample, with moderate issuance volumes of local bonds, leading to stable supply pressure [6][23] - Long-term spreads continue to widen, but adjustments have led to a more stable outlook [6][23]