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央行等量平价续作1000亿元MLF 业界认为本月1年期LPR仍存下调可能
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-08-12 06:26
Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is maintaining liquidity in the banking system by conducting a medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation of 100 billion yuan and a reverse repurchase operation of 100 billion yuan, with unchanged interest rates, to ensure market liquidity remains adequate [1][2]. Group 1: MLF Operations - The PBOC's MLF operation this month is a rollover of the 100 billion yuan maturing amount, indicating a stable liquidity environment influenced by recent profit remittances and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts [1]. - The MLF interest rate has remained unchanged for four consecutive months since a reduction in January, aimed at avoiding irrational depreciation expectations of the yuan amid tightening U.S. monetary policy [2]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Short-term economic pressures persist, with the PBOC expected to maintain a flexible and moderate monetary policy to support the recovery of the real economy, focusing on structural tools to address specific weaknesses and promote domestic demand [3]. - The PBOC's recent measures, including lowering the mortgage rate for first-time homebuyers, reflect targeted adjustments in response to the real estate sector's impact on the macroeconomy [2][3]. Group 3: Interest Rate Adjustments - The LPR (Loan Prime Rate) is anticipated to have room for downward adjustment, particularly the one-year LPR, driven by lower market interest rates and regulatory efforts to guide deposit rates downwards [4]. - A reduction in the LPR typically requires two consecutive RRR cuts, with the recent cut being the first in this sequence, suggesting that further adjustments may be forthcoming [4].
央行:维持基础货币合理充裕状态
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-08-12 05:55
Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a 400 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation and a 20 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, both with a reduction in interest rates, indicating a continued effort to maintain liquidity in the banking system while responding to economic pressures [1][2][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - The MLF operation and reverse repo rates were reduced by 10 basis points to 2.75% and 2.0%, respectively, marking the second interest rate cut of the year [1]. - The MLF scale was reduced by 200 billion yuan, which aligns with market expectations and suggests that the central bank aims to avoid signaling an overly tight monetary policy [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Context - Since April, the market liquidity has remained ample due to coordinated monetary and fiscal policies, leading to a decline in major market interest rates [2]. - The manufacturing PMI fell by 1.2 percentage points to 49% in July, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector and reflecting weak financing willingness in the real economy [3]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Direction - Analysts expect the PBOC to employ more structural tools for targeted support, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises, the real estate sector, and other key areas [4]. - The reduction in MLF rates is anticipated to influence the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), with a higher probability of a decrease in the LPR, especially for terms longer than five years [3].