投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-09-23 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250715 | 2025/06 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.20 | 5.40 | 4.70 | | 20250831 | 2025/08 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.40 | 49.30 | 49.10 | | 20250831 | 2025/08 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.30 | 50.10 | 50.30 | | 20250915 | 2025/08 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 25668.00 11307.00 | 30323.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20250912 | 2025/08 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 11.70 | 11.80 | 12.20 | | 202509 ...

Group 1 - The August LPR (Loan Prime Rate) will be announced on August 20, with the current rates being 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for 5-year, unchanged from June [2] - The stability in LPR rates aligns with market expectations, indicating a steady monetary policy environment [2] - Analysts suggest that the 7-day reverse repurchase rate has become the new pricing anchor for LPR, facilitating better transmission of interest rates from short to long-term [2] Group 2 - The 2025 Global Smart Education Conference will take place in Beijing from August 18 to 20, focusing on the theme of "Human-Machine Collaboration to Create a New Ecosystem in Education" [3] - The conference will feature various activities including plenary sessions, workshops, and exhibitions aimed at promoting digital transformation in education [3] - Other significant conferences include the 2025 World Educators Conference in Shanghai and the 24th National Plant Genomics Conference in Tibet, both scheduled for August [3] Group 3 - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference is set to occur next week, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech being a key focus for market participants [4] - Analysts from Bank of America highlight that Powell's signals regarding monetary policy are particularly influential, and this conference is a prime opportunity for him to indicate any shifts in policy focus [4] - Current market expectations suggest a 62.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September, with a 22.5% chance of a 50 basis point cut [4]

为维护银行体系流动性合理充裕，5月16日中国人民银行（下称"央行"）开展1000亿元中期借贷便 利（MLF）操作和100亿元公开市场逆回购操作。中标利率分别为2.85%、2.1%，维持前值不变。鉴于 本月MLF到期量为1000亿元，故央行此次为等量平价续作。 对于央行本月等量续作MLF，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青在接受《证券日报》记者采访时认 为，主要原因在于受近期央行上缴结存利润、降准等影响，市场流动性已处于较为充裕的状态。 从DR007（银行间存款类金融机构以利率债为质押的7天期回购利率）来看，据全国银行间同业拆 借中心数据显示，4月份以来DR007始终处于7天回购操作利率即2.1%以下，表明银行间流动性充裕。另 外，上海银行间同业拆放利率(Shibor)短端品种亦维持较低水平。其中，隔夜Shibor的20日均值为 1.36%，5月16日为1.31%。 王青认为，4月下旬之后人民币汇率波动幅度明显加大，整体上出现一定程度贬值。从兼顾内外角 度考虑，现阶段国内货币政策采取大幅宽松措施比较谨慎。另外，当前经济下行压力主要来自疫情影 响，具有阶段性特征，逆周期调控主要以结构性政策定向发力为主。针对地产下滑对宏观 ...