开栏语 2025年中央经济工作会议指出，"要坚持稳中求进、提质增效"，指明了2026年经济工作的政策取向。金 融是"国之大者"，关系中国式现代化建设全局，既肩负重任，也凝聚期待。站在"十五五"开局之年的起 点上，本栏目将"瞭望"今年货币政策之平衡、金融市场之锚点、行业发展之逻辑，于变局中前瞻动向， 共察岁序新章里的金融风向。 ◎记者 张琼斯 日前召开的2026年中国人民银行工作会议明确，继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策。会议还释放出系列新 信号：强调把物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，注重维护金融市场平稳运行，关注政策传导和实 施效果……这些适应新形势的"微调"，尽显货币政策操作的新年新意。 "适度宽松"底色不变 消费者在天津市滨海新区的一家超市选购商品。 新华社图 作为宏观调控的重要抓手，货币政策始终紧盯宏观经济运行中的需求与挑战。 分析人士认为，今年货币政策面临的宏观环境具有较强延续性。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对上海证 券报记者表示：一方面，我国经济发展中的问题与挑战仍然不少，需要货币政策保持支持性立场，加大 逆周期调节力度；另一方面，我国经济基础稳、潜力大，人才资源丰富，民营经济灵活性高、抗压能力 强等 ...

从全月看，1月流动性面临多重扰动因素。财政因素是主要扰动项之一。中信证券首席经济学家明明 表示，财政"收多支少"且政府债发行缴款规模边际提升，财政因素可能会对资金面带来扰动，并且 居民、企业部门的集中取现需求也会对资金面带来一定的不利影响。 东吴证券固收首席分析师李勇表示，财政存款通常呈现"季初增加、季末减少"的特征。预计1月财 政存款净增加约6200亿元，会扩大流动性缺口。"综合考虑财政存款、现金走款和银行缴准等因素 后，2026年1月的流动性缺口约为19000亿元。"李勇说。 专家认为，财政存款、信贷投放等多种因素叠加共振将影响1月流动性，央行或将继续通过国债买卖、 中期借贷便利（MLF）等多种政策工具保持流动性充裕，预计资金面将延续宽松态势。 中国人民银行1月8日发布公告称，以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了99亿元7天期逆回购操作，操 作利率为1.4%。因当日无7天期逆回购到期、有11000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购到期，叠加当日 等量续做的买断式逆回购，最终实现净投放99亿元。 专家认为，财政存款、信贷投放等多种因素叠加共振将影响1月流动性，央行或将继续通过国债买 卖、中期借贷便利（MLF）等多种政策工具 ...

中国人民银行1月8日发布公告称，以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了99亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利 率为1.4%。因当日无7天期逆回购到期、有11000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购到期，叠加当日等量续做的 买断式逆回购，最终实现净投放99亿元。专家认为，财政存款、信贷投放等多种因素叠加共振将影响1 月流动性，央行或将继续通过国债买卖、中期借贷便利（MLF）等多种政策工具保持流动性充裕，预 计资金面将延续宽松态势。（中证报） ...

东吴证券固收首席分析师李勇表示，财政存款通常呈现"季初增加、季末减少"的特征。预计1月财政存 款净增加约6200亿元，会扩大流动性缺口。"综合考虑财政存款、现金走款和银行缴准等因素后，2026 年1月的流动性缺口约为19000亿元。"李勇说。 信贷投放同样将对1月流动性形成扰动。财通证券（601108）首席经济学家孙彬彬认为，商业银行在 2026年初"早投放早收益"的诉求可能会抬升，与此同时，在微观中看到银行储备项目相较于往年更加提 前的信息，以及2025年12月票据利率月尾抬升的现象，因此判断1月信贷投放或有超季节性表现，带动 资金缺口有所增加。 综合运用政策工具 面对1月的流动性缺口，市场预期央行后续将加大政策工具运用力度，且操作有望更加积极，以维持资 金面稳定，预计资金利率波动将小于季节性。 中国人民银行1月8日发布公告称，以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了99亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利 率为1.4%。因当日无7天期逆回购到期、有11000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购到期，叠加当日等量续做的 买断式逆回购，最终实现净投放99亿元。 "1月央行将综合运用买断式逆回购、MLF等货币政策工具，持续向市场注入中期流动 ...

● 本报记者 彭扬 中国人民银行1月8日发布公告称，以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了99亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利 率为1.4%。因当日无7天期逆回购到期、有11000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购到期，叠加当日等量续做的 买断式逆回购，最终实现净投放99亿元。 专家认为，财政存款、信贷投放等多种因素叠加共振将影响1月流动性，央行或将继续通过国债买卖、 中期借贷便利（MLF）等多种政策工具保持流动性充裕，预计资金面将延续宽松态势。 多因素扰动流动性 1月4日-9日，央行公开市场迎来集中到期，其中有17937亿元逆回购与11000亿元买断式逆回购陆续到 期。针对1月8日到期的买断式逆回购，央行于当日等量续做，以此呵护市场流动性。 面对1月的流动性缺口，市场预期央行后续将加大政策工具运用力度，且操作有望更加积极，以维持资 金面稳定，预计资金利率波动将小于季节性。 "1月央行将综合运用买断式逆回购、MLF等货币政策工具，持续向市场注入中期流动性，这是2026年货 币政策延续'适度宽松'基调，保持流动性充裕的体现。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青说。 明明持相似观点，他认为，在货币政策"适度宽松"基调与"保持流动性充裕"的整体 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the liquidity situation in December 2025 and makes a forecast for January 2026. In December, the central bank actively injected liquidity, and the funds across the year were stable. The monetary policy emphasizes cross - cycle balance and flexible and efficient use of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. In January, the liquidity gap pressure is relatively large, and the potential disturbances on the bank's liability side may increase in the middle and late months, but the funds fluctuation may be relatively mild, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in the bank's liability pressure after the increase in fiscal factor disturbances [1][3][4]. Summary According to the Directory 1. December 2025 Funds and Liquidity Review: Active Injection, Stable across the Year (1) Funds Review: Narrow - range Fluctuation Continued In December 2025, the overnight fluctuation range narrowed compared with the previous month, and the 7D funds fluctuation range widened. The overnight funds basically ran stably around 1.28%, and the 7D funds were stable around 1.45% from the beginning of the month to the 23rd, then rose continuously until reaching 1.9821% on the 31st. The overnight and 7D funds did not show an inversion. The funds were loose at the beginning of the month, the central bank carried out 100 billion yuan of 3M repurchase on the 5th, and 60 billion yuan of 6M repurchase in the middle of the month, continuing the "short - term contraction and long - term expansion" operation. At the end of the year, affected by seasonal factors, the 7D funds price fluctuated slightly. The funds across the year were relatively stable [11][12]. (2) Liquidity Review: The Central Bank Actively Injected in December, Continuing the "Short - term Contraction and Long - term Expansion" - **Liquidity Aggregate**: In December, the base money may have increased by 1.7 trillion yuan, with government deposits supplementing about 1 trillion yuan, the central bank's net injection totaling 752.8 billion yuan, and foreign exchange funds continuing to withdraw slightly by 7 billion yuan. After deducting the consumption of excess reserves, the excess reserves at the end of the month may have increased by about 1 trillion yuan, and the excess reserve ratio may be around 1.5%, at a seasonal level. The narrow - sense excess reserve level after deducting reverse repurchases may be around 0.8%, close to the seasonal level [36]. - **Open - market Operations**: In December, the central bank's open - market reverse repurchases slightly increased, with a net injection of 28.19 billion yuan. The MLF was injected with 40 billion yuan and 30 billion yuan matured, with a balance of 6.25 trillion yuan. The net injection of the outright reverse repurchase was 20 billion yuan, with a balance of 6.5 trillion yuan. The central bank also net - bought 5 billion yuan of national debt, carried out 26 billion yuan of treasury time deposits, and 15.94 billion yuan of PSL and other structural tools [46][51][54]. 2. December 2025 Monetary Policy Tracking: Focus on Cross - cycle Balance, Flexibly and Efficiently Use Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts and Interest Rate Cuts In December 2025, important meetings emphasized "flexibly and efficiently using reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts." The overall loosening may be relatively prudent, but the idea of liquidity protection continues. The central bank emphasizes cross - cycle balance to avoid large - scale policy expansion and contraction. The central economic work conference takes promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as important considerations. The fourth - quarter monetary policy meeting first proposed to "give play to the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies." In a neutral scenario next year, the policy interest rate is likely to be cut once, with a range of 10bp [3][57][63]. 3. January 2026 Gap Prediction: Disturbances May Increase in the Middle and Late Months (1) Rigid Gap: Reserve Requirement Slightly Consumes Excess Reserves, and MLF Maturities Decrease Marginally In January, the increase in general deposits may consume about 32.96 billion yuan of excess reserves. The MLF matures at 20 billion yuan, and the outright reverse repurchase matures at 1.7 trillion yuan (1.1 trillion yuan for 3M and 600 billion yuan for 6M), of which 1.1 trillion yuan of the 3M outright reverse repurchase was renewed on the 7th [69]. (2) Exogenous Shocks: Cash Withdrawal and Non - financial Institution Deposits Consume Liquidity at the End of the Year In January, cash withdrawal and non - financial institution deposits slightly consume excess reserves. Cash withdrawal may consume about 67.87 billion yuan of excess reserves, and non - financial institution deposits may consume about 16.36 billion yuan [71]. (3) Fiscal Factors: A Big Month for Taxation, Coupled with Government Bond Issuance, May Partially Consume Reserves In January, government bond issuance pressure increases. Considering factors such as payment and refund, taxation, and fiscal expenditure, government deposits may consume about 1.2 trillion yuan of liquidity [4][75][76]. (4) Comprehensive Judgment: Stable at the Beginning of the Month, Disturbances May Increase in the Middle and Late Months In January, the liquidity gap pressure is relatively large, but the bank's liquidity level at the beginning of the month may be relatively abundant. Affected by factors such as the maturity of high - interest deposits and the renewal of large - scale certificates of deposit, the potential disturbances on the bank's liability side may increase in the middle and late months. However, considering the current relatively low excess reserve level, the central bank has no intention of large - scale withdrawal, and the Spring Festival is later, so the funds fluctuation may be relatively mild. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in the bank's liability pressure after the increase in fiscal factor disturbances [4][80].

根据中国人民银行发布的公告，1月8日，央行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展1.1万 亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月（90天）。由于本月有11000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购到期，因 此此次操作将实现等量对冲。 专家预计，总体上，本月买断式逆回购将实现净投放，继续向市场注入中短期流动性，更好地维护市场 流动性充裕，保障岁末年初金融市场平稳运行。 买断式逆回购能更好应对跨季、跨年等关键时点的资金波动 什么是"买断式逆回购"？ 事实上，央行的这项工具并不算新面孔——2024年10月28日，央行正式启用公开市场买断式逆回购操作 工具，标志着该工具进入常态化应用阶段。 简单来说，"买断式逆回购"就是央行主动向一级交易商买入债券并约定未来买回，相当于"先给钱、后 收券"，直接向市场注入中期流动性。 继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，增强宏观政策前瞻性针对性协同性 近日召开的2026年中国人民银行工作会议提出，今年将继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，发挥增量政策和 存量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升金融服务实体经济高质量发展质效，深化金融 改革和更高水平对外开放，增强宏观政策前瞻性针对性协同性，着力扩大内 ...

中国人民银行1月7日发布公告，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，将于1月8日以固定数量、利率招标、多重 价位中标方式开展11000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月（90天）。由于1月8日当天有同等规模、 同期限的买断式逆回购到期，本次操作实现了等量续作。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，此次3个月期品种未加量操作，可能与金融机构资金需求的期限结 构有关，但这并不意味着央行降低了流动性投放力度。根据以往操作惯例，央行本月预计还将开展一次 6个月期的买断式逆回购操作。 王青表示，总体来看，1月央行将综合运用买断式逆回购、MLF等政策工具，持续向市场注入中期流动 性。这是2026年货币政策延续"适度宽松"基调、保持流动性充裕的具体体现。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 招联金融首席研究员董希淼预计，央行将于1月15日左右开展6个月期买断式逆回购操作，届时加量续作 的可能性较大。如果实现加量，这将是该政策工具连续第8个月向市场净投放中期流动性。 王青指出，为配合年初政府债券发行、应对信贷"开门红"等因素可能带来的资金面阶段性收紧压力，央 行将继续通 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a reverse repurchase operation of 1.1 trillion yuan with a term of 3 months, indicating a continuation of liquidity support in the banking system [1] - In January, a total of 1.7 trillion yuan in reverse repos will mature, and there is an expectation for an increase in the 6-month reverse repo operations to maintain liquidity [1] - Analysts suggest that the PBOC's actions are aimed at stabilizing the funding environment in response to potential liquidity tightening due to government bond issuances [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance has completed the first batch of 2026 discount treasury bond auctions, with local governments also beginning to issue special bonds, indicating a significant increase in government bond issuance at the start of the year [2] - Experts predict that the scale of government bonds will further increase in 2026, necessitating the PBOC to implement measures to maintain stable liquidity in the banking system [2] - There is an estimated liquidity gap of approximately 1.3 trillion yuan in January, prompting the PBOC to potentially use reverse repos and other monetary policy tools to ensure reasonable liquidity levels [2]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repo operation with a term of 3 months, indicating a continuation of liquidity support in the banking system [1] - In January, a total of 1.7 trillion yuan in reverse repos is set to mature, and there is an expectation for an increase in the issuance of 6-month reverse repos to maintain liquidity [1] - Analysts suggest that the PBOC's actions are aimed at stabilizing the funding environment in response to government bond issuance and potential liquidity tightening [1][2] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance has completed the first batch of 2026 government bond issuances, with local governments also beginning to issue special bonds, indicating a significant increase in government bond supply [2] - Experts predict that the scale of government bonds will further increase in 2026, necessitating the PBOC to implement measures to maintain stable liquidity in the banking system [2] - The liquidity gap in January is estimated to be around 1.3 trillion yuan, primarily due to government bond supply pressures and tax payments, prompting the PBOC to utilize various monetary policy tools to ensure adequate liquidity [2]