云铝股份 20250825 摘要 云铝股份 2025 年上半年营收 291 亿元，归母净利润 27.68 亿元，加权 平均净资产收益率 9.8%，归母净资产达 300 亿元，经营业绩表现良好。 公司实施 2025 年中期分红，每 10 股派发现金红利 3.2 元，占上半年归 母净利润比例超 40%，为 2024 年以来第二次中期分红，持续回报投资 者。 2025 年上半年云铝产品总产量 161.32 万吨，同比增长 15.59%，包 括电解锭约 68 万吨，再生合金约 68 万吨，对外销售液态金属约 25 万 吨。 公司未来资本开支重点为补齐资源端、矿石端、电解铝完善及绿色能源 项目短板，将综合判断并履行决策程序后进行信息披露。 公司电价目标保持稳定可控，尽管二季度火电比例增加导致成本略有波 动，但整体电量保障没有问题，相较去年相对稳定。 公司将持续专注于电解铝及其一体化，不会因短期效益而改变战略布局， 坚持长期主义，确保企业可持续发展。 公司将考虑在东南亚等地区布局电解铝项目，前提是具备矿资源、电力 保障且政治风险较小，目前仍处于前期研究阶段。 Q&A 请简要回顾云铝股份 2025 年上半年的经营情况，并展 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - If the opening price of AD2511 is below 19,000 yuan/ton, go long on the AD2511 contract and short on the AL2511 contract; if it is above 19,600 yuan/ton, short the AD2511 contract unilaterally [4]. - The absolute price of aluminum alloy is expected to be poor, but it needs to be evaluated against the opening price. The relative price of aluminum alloy is currently at a low level. The supply of scrap aluminum will continue to be tight, and the fundamentals of aluminum alloy are weaker than those of electrolytic aluminum [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Background: Current Node Aluminum Price Further Upside is Limited - The profit of the electrolytic aluminum industry is 3,000 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level. The alumina price on the cost side is weak, and the inventory on the consumption side is still decreasing. However, the production of aluminum rods and aluminum strips and foils shows a marginal decline, indicating the approach of the seasonal consumption off - season. Without additional macro - disturbing factors, there is no fundamental support for further increasing the aluminum price. With low inventory, the aluminum price will mainly fluctuate with a slight downward trend and limited decline space [5]. Compared with Electrolytic Aluminum, Aluminum Alloy Fundamentals are Weaker - The operating rate of recycled alloys is only about 50%, with excess capacity, while the electrolytic aluminum operating rate is 97%, approaching the production capacity ceiling. The consumption of recycled alloys is overly concentrated in the automotive sector. Currently, the automobile production is good and vehicle lightweighting is ongoing, which boosts the consumption of aluminum alloy. In the long run, when automobile production and lightweighting development approach the bottleneck, the increase in the penetration rate of new - energy vehicles will drag down the consumption of aluminum alloy [5]. Scrap Aluminum Supply will Continue to be Tight - Forecasts show that the supply growth of domestic scrap aluminum will be limited, and the supply of old scrap aluminum may face challenges, leading to a continuous tight supply situation [18]. Smelting Profit and Spread Performance - From the analysis of recycled alloy smelting profit and ADC12 - A00 spread seasonality, the current relative price of aluminum alloy is at a low level. The Baotai quotation is 19,400 yuan/ton, and the actual spot transaction price is 19,200 yuan/ton. If the price of the aluminum alloy 2511 contract reaches 19,600 yuan/ton, the smelting losses of aluminum alloy plants will be repaired, and the hedging willingness will increase [5]. Expiring Warehouse Receipt Mode is Unfavorable for Buying Delivery - According to sample mine statistics, the output in the first quarter of 2025 was 1142,000 tons, with only a year - on - year increase of 4700 tons [28]. Contract Details Comparison - The trading unit of aluminum is 5 tons/hand, and that of aluminum alloy is 10 tons/hand. The minimum price change for both is 5 yuan/ton. The trading time, last trading day, and delivery date are similar, but there are differences in details such as trading code, delivery unit, and warehouse receipt validity period. The aluminum alloy futures will be listed for trading on June 10, 2025 [30].