铜：宏观缺乏指引，铜价高位震荡 周三晚沪铜主力震荡收涨于103040元，伦铜运行至约13350美金附近。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 宏观中性。特朗普国情咨文表态指引性不强，海外隔夜消息面清淡，市场风险偏好改善，美元温和走软提振铜价。 基本面中性偏空。昨日上期所铜仓单增加10717吨至28.7万吨，国内现货贴水承压走跌至-200元左右，LME铜累库6475吨至24.96万吨。 总体来看，国内下游复工与国内政策预期对铜价具备提振，不过海外宏观缺乏指引，同时关税摩擦与地缘扰动仍存，预计短期铜价高位宽幅震荡为主。今日 沪铜主力运行参考10.2万-10.4万元/吨。策略上，日内区间为主，中长线逢低布局远月多单。 重要声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，中信建投期货力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构 成个人投资建议，也没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。（虞璐 彦/Z0023596，仅供参考） 铝：隔夜氧化铝期货小幅上涨，近期新疆铝厂常规招标万吨现货氧化铝 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 铜：关税扰动，铜价承压 周二晚沪铜主力震荡收涨于102220元，伦铜运行至约13200美金附近。 宏观中性偏空。美国正式开始征收10%全球关税，同时白宫正在准备落实税率提高到15%的命令，中方商务部表态将全面评估美国关税调整反制政策，全球 贸易政策不确定性下铜价承压震荡。 基本面中性偏空。昨日上期所铜仓单增加8万吨至27.7万吨，LME铜累库1350吨至24.3万吨。据SMM春节假期间中国铜社会库存（不含保税）累库约15.5万 吨至50.8万吨。 总体来看，关税政策叠加地缘冲突扰动，预计短期铜价承压震荡为主。但在下游复工推进与国内政策预期支撑下，铜价具备一定韧性。今日沪铜主力运行参 考10.05万-10.3万元/吨。策略上，日内暂观望，中长线逢低布局远月多单。 铝：隔夜氧化铝期货小幅下跌，现货企业多升水报价，尤其流动性相对较高的山东区域，厂商和贸易商报价相对机构报价平水或者升水10-20元。主因节前 氧化铝生产企业减产及检修增多，以及北方大型氧化铝企业突发政策性减产。而广西地区新增产能投产或有所延后，当前运行产能下降至9350万吨左右，且 预计 ...

国内金属 期货夜盘多数收涨。沪锡收涨2.02%，沪镍收涨1.65%，不锈钢收涨1.03%，国际铜收涨 0.32%，沪铜收涨0.25%，沪铅收涨0.12%，氧化铝收跌0.39%，铝合金收跌0.42%，沪铝收跌0.55%，沪 锌收跌0.67%。 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 铜：铜价高位震荡，关注复工情况 假期间伦铜震荡运行于12500-13000美元区间。 宏观中性偏空。2月21日特朗普宣布将对全球对等关税上调至15%，贸易政策不确定性叠加美国伊朗谈判无果，市场避险情绪升温。 基本面中性。假期间LME累库约3万吨至24万吨，COMEX铜累库0.8万吨至54.46万吨。节前国内加工企业开工率大幅下滑，关注节后复工情况。 总体来看，受中国假期影响海外铜价波动放缓，节后在下游复工推动下，铜价具备一定韧性，预计价格有望企稳回暖。今日沪铜主力运行参考9.9万-10.25万 元/吨。策略上，逢低布局远月多单。 重要声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，中信建投期货力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构 成个人投资建议，也没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。（虞璐 彦/Z0023596，仅供参考） 镍&不锈钢：宏观方面，美国关税走向不确定性扰动市场，地缘风险亦有担忧。消息面上，WBN的RKAB配额被削减至1 ...

五矿期货：铸造铝合金成本端价格冲高回落，虽然需求相对一般，但在供应端扰动持续和原料供应季节 性偏紧背景下，短期价格仍有支撑。 相关机构点评： 国信期货：震荡调整，清仓过节 原料方面，废铝价格重心偏高，叠加节前废铝回收活动减少，下游放假，废铝市场继续维持着"有价无 市"的情况，且考虑到回收活动减少会同时降低未来废铝供应量，节后废铝价格预计依旧易涨难跌。春 节临近，多数再生铝厂计划于2月5—13日陆续停产，复工时间主要集中在正月初八或元宵节后，预计停 炉周期在8—20天之间，整体平均停产时间较去年延长约2天。需求方面，短期看，进入春节企业停工 期，需求进一步走弱。新能源汽车市场因补贴政策转换期，消费情况明显走弱。但长期而言，需求端依 然存在新能源汽车行业长单的托底。整体而言，铝合金预计震荡调整，清仓过节。 周五(2月13日)收盘，铝合金期货主力合约报22040元/吨，跌幅0.85%，盘中最高上探至22385元/吨，最 低触及21875元/吨，持仓量达11955手，环比上一交易日减持806手，成交量达9400手。 消息面回顾： 2月11日，主流消费地再生铝合金锭库存环比前一日减少95吨，较上周三减少837吨，去库态 ...

Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai opened higher but closed lower, ending at 102,190 CNY, while London copper peaked at 13,500 USD before retreating to around 13,222 USD [4][14] - The U.S. January non-farm payroll data exceeded market expectations, with 130,000 new jobs added and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%, leading to a slight cooling of interest rate cut expectations [4][14] - The increase in copper warehouse receipts by 12,958 tons to 178,900 tons on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and a rise of 3,000 tons in LME copper stocks to 192,100 tons indicate a bearish sentiment in the market [4][14] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - The U.S. non-farm employment data significantly exceeded expectations, slightly reducing the Fed's interest rate cut outlook, although concerns about data quality limit the impact [5][15] - The demand for Indonesian nickel ore remains strong, while domestic market conditions are constrained by negative feedback in the supply chain, leading to stagnant nickel ore procurement [5][15] - Stainless steel transactions have been relatively weak, with social inventory increasing month-on-month due to pessimistic sentiment in the futures market [5][15] Group 3: Polysilicon - In January, domestic polysilicon production was reported at 102,000 tons, a decrease of 8.3% quarter-on-quarter, with expectations for further reductions to 85,000 tons in February [6][16] - The cancellation of export tax rebates has limited support for downstream sectors, while high costs of auxiliary materials continue to restrict acceptance of silicon materials [6][16] - The current market is low in activity, with future prices expected to be influenced mainly by industry governance and regulatory dynamics [6][16] Group 4: Aluminum - Domestic alumina prices remained stable, with a northern alumina producer halting part of its roasting and leaching capacity, affecting around 4 million tons of normal operating capacity [7][17] - The market is expected to experience a temporary supply-demand mismatch post-holiday, with attention needed on the actual progress of new capacity in Guangxi [7][17] - The aluminum futures market is anticipated to remain in a narrow range, with the 05 contract expected to operate between 2,600 and 2,950 CNY per ton [7][17] Group 5: Zinc and Lead - Zinc futures in Shanghai opened high but closed lower, with the macro environment affected by strong U.S. non-farm data, leading to mixed market sentiment [20] - The supply of lead concentrate remains tight, with some smelters entering production cuts ahead of the holiday, while downstream purchasing has slowed [20][21] - Overall, both zinc and lead markets are expected to experience weak supply-demand dynamics, with lead prices anticipated to fluctuate within a range of 16,500 to 17,500 CNY per ton [20][21] Group 6: Precious Metals - Precious metals initially strengthened but later retraced gains due to strong U.S. employment data, which has pressured interest rate cut expectations [23] - The geopolitical situation in Greenland, with NATO's military actions, has added some support to precious metals due to increased risks [23] - Gold is recommended for long-term holding, while silver, platinum, and palladium require a more cautious approach [23]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 铜：美元回落，铜价企稳 隔夜沪铜主力震荡收涨至102450元，伦铜收涨于13200美金附近。 宏观中性偏多。哈塞特称未来几个月就业人数将放缓，降息预期改善，美元走软提振铜价。 基本面中性。昨日上期所铜仓单减少3044吨至15.7万吨，LME铜累库1025吨至18.43万吨。Capstone智利Mantoverde铜矿工会已批准新的劳动合同，罢工活动 结束。 总体来看，节前国内资金谨慎，叠加海外宏观缺乏指引，预计短期铜价较难维持趋势性，或延续宽幅震荡。今日沪铜主力运行区间参考10.15万-10.35万元/ 吨。策略上，节前控制好仓位，可考虑布局双买期权；中长线逢低多配。 重要声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，中信建投期货力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构 成个人投资建议，也没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。（虞璐 彦/Z0023596，仅供参考） 铝：隔夜期货价格窄幅震荡，现货价格小幅企稳。消息面某北方氧化铝生产企业 ...

Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai fell over 2% to 102,590 yuan, while London copper hovered around $13,000 [4] - The macroeconomic outlook is neutral to bearish, with a cooling U.S. employment market and support for a strong dollar impacting copper prices [5][19] - The fundamental outlook is neutral to bullish, with a fixed investment target of 180 billion yuan for the Southern Power Grid by 2026, and a planned investment of over 24 billion yuan in Q1, a 20% year-on-year increase [6][19] - Short-term price fluctuations are expected to remain resilient due to global strategic reserves intensifying supply-demand tensions [6][19] - Today's trading range for Shanghai copper is suggested to be between 101,000 and 105,000 yuan per ton, with strategies recommending reducing positions before the holiday [6][19] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - The macro sentiment is showing marginal recovery, leading to an overall rebound in the non-ferrous sector [20] - Nickel supply is tight due to weather-related shipping disruptions in the Philippines and rainfall affecting Indonesian supply [20] - The stainless steel market faces oversupply pressures, with limited terminal demand, although suppliers are showing a strong willingness to maintain prices due to low arrivals and strong cost support [20][21] Group 3: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market experienced a general decline, with alumina futures prices slightly dropping while spot prices stabilized [22] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association indicated that a "reverse involution" policy for alumina will be introduced, but its impact will take time to materialize [22] - In January, 64.9% of the alumina industry was operating at a loss, with 23.8% of production facing cash cost losses [22] - The trading range for alumina futures is suggested to be between 2,600 and 2,900 yuan per ton, with a strategy of high selling and low buying within this range [23][22] Group 4: Zinc Market - Zinc prices showed weak fluctuations, influenced by mixed macroeconomic data from the U.S. [24] - February is expected to see a slight increase in processing fees, with a reduction in supply exceeding 50,000 tons due to production days and maintenance [24] - The demand side is affected by environmental controls in the north and reduced operations in galvanizing, leading to a return to a quiet market ahead of the holiday [24] Group 5: Lead Market - Lead prices showed a strong fluctuation, with tight supply from primary lead and a relatively loose supply from recycled lead due to transportation costs [25] - The market is entering a traditional off-season, with downstream purchasing primarily driven by essential needs, leading to an increase in inventory [25] - The trading range for lead futures is suggested to be between 16,500 and 17,500 yuan per ton [25] Group 6: Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced a slight rebound, although some gains were given back due to neutral to hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials [27] - The market is influenced by mixed economic data, with the ADP employment change significantly below expectations, while the ISM non-manufacturing PMI was slightly above expectations [27] - The long-term bullish logic for precious metals remains intact despite short-term volatility risks, with gold long positions recommended to be held [27]

北京时间2日午后，黄金、白银价格继续下探。 截至发稿，现货黄金向下跌破4500美元/盎司，日内下跌7.5%，现货白银日内跌幅超14%，近一个月涨 幅已抹平。 白银/美元 8 1 Q | 旅方 t 时期 XAG 72.75 今开 82.68 最高 87.95 最低 72.75 -14.11% -11.95 总手 - 结算 -- 昨结 84.70 更多 分时 五日 日K 周K 月K 更多,较 均线 · MA5:100.43↓ 10:99.29↓ 20:92.56↓ DK点 121.65-> 121.65 101.07 80.48 59.89 > 来源：每日经济新闻 消息面上，本周，全球市场将面临美非农就业数据出炉、欧英央行公布利率决议以及日本众议院选举等 多项重大事件的考验。 北京时间2月6日，美国将公布1月非农就业数据，市场聚焦通胀下行风险对美联储下一次利率决议的影 响。而据CME"美联储观察"最新统计，美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为15.3%，维持利率不变的概 率为84.7%。美联储到4月累计降息25个基点的概率为29.0%，维持利率不变的概率为68.0%，累计降息 50个基点的概率为3.0%。到6月累计 ...

铝月报（2026年1月） 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2026-1-30 目录 01 后市研判 02 行情回顾 02 行情回顾 03 宏观 面 04 基本 面 后市研判 PART 01 1月氧化铝、电解铝、铝合金期价走势分化 1月份氧化铝期货价格呈现探底回升走势；1月份电解铝、铝合金期货价格呈现走势偏强的格局。 宏观面：美国就业市场弱平衡，通胀表现温和，1月份美联储按兵不动，但货币政策宽松预期不改，地缘潜在风险升 级 全球铝溢价传导加剧；国内方面，央行行长表示灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，今年降准降息还有 一定的空间。 氧化铝：铝土矿价格继续下跌，氧化铝成本因此下降，随着几内亚雨季结束，进口矿价格仍存在下跌预期。氧化铝部 分炼厂出现减产，供应压力稍有缓解，提振期价上涨，不过，目前供应过剩格局未改，氧化铝难以摆脱弱势。 目前供应过剩格局未改，氧化铝难以摆脱弱势。 电解铝：供应端目前电解铝运行产能变化有限，后期有增产预期。进入季节性淡季后，需求表现趋弱，且春节临近、 铝价高企或抑制下游拿货积极性，下游企业的提前退市将接踵而来，不过，光伏抢出口带动需 ...