Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The easing of Sino - US trade concerns and positive macro - expectations have led to a significant strengthening of base metals. In the short and medium term, supply - side disturbances and improved macro - expectations are the main drivers. Copper leads the rise of base metals, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of aluminum ingot price catch - up. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disturbances in copper, aluminum, and tin persist, with expectations of tightening supply - demand, so the prices of copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to rise [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: The restart of Sino - US trade negotiations and the release of the Fourth Plenary Session communiqué have improved market sentiment. Supply disturbances continue to increase, with reduced copper ore supply and higher scrap copper recycling costs. Although it is the peak demand season, high prices have curbed demand. Overall, copper prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [8][9]. - **Alumina**: There are still fundamental pressures, but the valuation has entered a low - level range. The price is expected to fluctuate. The spot price has shown some declines in different regions [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic and overseas macro - environment is positive. The domestic replacement capacity is being put into production, and there are marginal disturbances in overseas supply. The traditional peak season is ending, and terminal demand is stable. With the copper - aluminum ratio above 4.0, the short - term price is expected to be volatile and bullish, and the medium - term price center may rise [12][13]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The cost support is strong due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum. There are small - scale production cuts on the supply side, and demand has marginally improved. The short - term price is expected to remain high and volatile, and the medium - term price is expected to fluctuate [14][15]. - **Zinc**: The macro - environment is optimistic, but the supply is loose in the short term, and the demand is entering the off - season. The short - term price may be volatile at a high level, and there is still room for decline in the long term [18][19]. - **Lead**: There are disturbances in recycled lead supply, and social inventory is at a low level. The current demand is in the peak season, and the supply is slightly less than expected. The price is expected to be volatile and bullish [20][21]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory has exceeded 250,000 tons. The market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The price is expected to be widely volatile in the short term [22][24]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts are decreasing. Nickel - iron prices are weakening, and the "Golden September and Silver October" demand sustainability needs attention. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate within a range [25][26]. - **Tin**: Supply constraints are strengthening. In Wa State, production increase may be delayed, and in Indonesia, refined tin supply is expected to tighten. Although the inventory has started to accumulate slightly, the price is expected to be volatile and bullish [26][27]. 3.2行情监测 - **Commodity Index**: On October 27, 2025, the comprehensive index, special index, and PPI commodity index of CITIC Futures all showed increases. The industrial products index had the highest increase of 0.95% [152]. - **Sector Index**: The non - ferrous metals index on October 27, 2025, had a daily increase of 0.55%, a 5 - day increase of 2.41%, a 1 - month increase of 5.38%, and a year - to - date increase of 8.71% [153].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market shows significant differentiation across various sectors. The non - ferrous and precious metals sector has a mixed situation, with precious metals showing callback risks and some non - ferrous metals having bullish signals. The black and shipping sector has some products with bearish signals and others in a volatile state. The energy and chemical sector is generally strong, but also has internal differentiation. The agricultural products sector is also divided, with some products bullish, some volatile, and some bearish [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Precious metals like gold and silver show callback risks, while non - ferrous metals such as cast aluminum alloy, copper, nickel, and stainless steel show bullish signals. Most other non - ferrous metals are in a volatile state. Lithium carbonate LC2601 has been rising this week, with support from the MA60 moving average, but some indicators are overbought [9][10][11]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: The non - ferrous metals sector is generally strong, with prices of some bullish products approaching the resistance level R1, and attention should be paid to R2 and R3. Precious metals like gold and silver have a callback trend, and attention should be paid to the support at S1 and S2 [16]. 3.2. Black and Shipping Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Rebar and iron ore show bearish signals, the European line shows a bearish signal, shipping is mainly in a volatile state, and other products are also volatile [18][19]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Iron ore is bearish, with prices approaching the key support levels S1 and S2. If there is heavy - volume decline, it may fall to S3. Most other products such as hot - rolled coils, wires, and coking coal are in a volatile state, and the European line shipping is also volatile with intense long - short competition [25]. 3.3. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Energy products such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, and LPG show bullish signals, and low - sulfur fuel oil shows a volatile signal. Chemical products such as PTA, p - xylene, etc. show bullish signals, while methanol, PVC, etc. show bearish signals, and most other products are volatile [29][30][31]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: The energy sector is strong, with prices of some products breaking through the pivot point and approaching R1, and the upside space can reach R2. The chemical sector is internally differentiated, with some products bullish and some bearish, and overall, attention should be paid to price fluctuations around the pivot point [35]. 3.4. Agricultural Products Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Soybean No. 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, cotton yarn, and eggs show bullish signals, rapeseed meal, peanuts, and red dates show bearish signals, and most other products are volatile. Soybean meal M2601 rose slightly this week, and if it breaks through the MA60 moving average with heavy volume, there may be a rebound trend [40][42][45]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Products with bullish ratings are above the pivot point and testing the R1 resistance. Most other products are in a volatile pattern, and rapeseed meal, peanuts, and red dates are under pressure below the pivot point and testing the S1 support [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively covers the overnight performance of domestic and international futures markets, important macro - economic news, and developments in various industries such as finance, energy, metals, and agriculture. It also presents corporate financial reports and upcoming events, offering a multi - faceted view of the current economic and market situation. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic futures: Most domestic futures主力 contracts declined. SC crude oil and coking coal dropped over 2%, while rapeseed meal, fuel oil, etc. fell nearly 2%. PX, 20 - grade rubber, and staple fiber had slight increases [3]. - International oil prices: The U.S. crude oil主力 contract closed down 2.30% at $63.31 per barrel, and Brent crude oil主力 contract dropped 2.15% to $66.75 per barrel [4]. - International precious metals: COMEX gold futures rose 0.75% to $3443.20 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.02% to $38.70 per ounce [5]. - London base metals: Most London base metals rose. LME nickel, tin, aluminum, and copper had respective increases of 1.19%, 0.95%, 0.53%, and 0.51% [5]. - International agricultural products: International agricultural futures showed mixed results. U.S. soybeans, soybean meal, and wheat rose by 0.12%, 0.48%, and 0.38% respectively, while U.S. corn and soybean oil dropped by 0.73% and 2.75% [6]. Important News Macroeconomic News - Energy system: China has established a relatively complete energy production, supply, storage, and sales system, with stable energy reserve capacity and enhanced power user response [10]. - Diplomatic news: Regarding the reported meeting of Chinese officials with U.S. counterparts, specific details should be inquired from relevant Chinese departments [10]. - Service trade: The State Council emphasizes promoting institutional opening - up of service trade, strengthening alignment with international high - standard economic and trade rules, and reducing negative lists for cross - border service trade [10]. - Fed news: Trump's administration is considering influencing local Fed policies, and there are personnel changes and power struggles within the Fed [11]. - Trade policies: Trump warns of high furniture tariffs and measures against foreign digital taxes [12]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Oil price adjustment: On August 26, 2025, domestic gasoline and diesel prices were lowered by 180 yuan/ton and 175 yuan/ton respectively [17]. - Refinery data: Shandong independent refineries' crude oil arrivals in the week ending August 25 increased by 101.07% week - on - week [17]. - Russian oil: Russia increased its August western port crude oil export plan by 200,000 barrels per day, but the plan is uncertain due to attacks and maintenance [17]. - Indian imports: Indian refiners plan to cut Russian crude oil purchases [17]. Metal Futures - Margin adjustment: The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin ratio and daily price limit for cast aluminum alloy futures on August 28, 2025 [19]. - Fed rate forecast: Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to cut rates in September and December 2025 and multiple times in 2026 [19]. - Trade negotiation: Chile's trade negotiation with the U.S. on tariffs is in the final stage, and Chile's cathode copper already enjoys U.S. tariff exemption [22]. Black - Series Futures - Coal market: Yulin coal prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to high terminal inventories and weak power coal price support [24]. - Steel production: In July 2025, the production of medium - thick plate mills, hot - strip mills, and cold - strip mills in key steel enterprises showed different trends [24]. - Steel plant situation: Tangshan's section steel mills are under production restrictions, with low operating rates and weak sales [25]. Agricultural Futures - Tax exemption: Malaysia's Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities is seeking tax exemption for crude and refined palm kernel oil [27]. - Palm oil data: From August 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 1.21% compared to the same period last month [30]. - Tariff exemption: The U.S. has agreed in principle to exempt Indonesia's cocoa, palm oil, and rubber from a 19% tariff [30]. - Crop production: Brazil's sugar and cane production forecasts for the 2025/26 season have changed compared to April [30]. - EU imports: As of August 24, 2025, EU imports of soybeans, rapeseed, palm oil, and corn decreased compared to the same period last year [31]. - Inventory data: As of August 26, 2025, China's national soybean oil port inventory increased by 41,000 tons week - on - week [32]. - Brazilian exports: Brazil's August soybean, soybean meal, and corn export forecasts have been adjusted [32]. Financial Markets Financial - A - shares: A - shares had a narrow - range shock with mixed performance of the three major indices. The market turnover decreased [35]. - Hong Kong stocks: The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and related indices fell, with different performances of various sectors [35]. - ETF market: China's ETF scale reached 5.07 trillion yuan, and the number of funds is 1,271 [35]. - Mutual funds: As of July 2025, China's public - offering funds' total scale reached 35.08 trillion yuan, with different growth trends for different types [36]. - Foreign capital: From August 14 - 20, 2025, passive and active foreign capital flowed into A - shares [36]. - Corporate dividends: As of August 26, 2025, A - share companies' announced mid - term dividends exceeded 250 billion yuan [39]. - Private funds: Over 60% of 10 - billion - level private funds are close to full - position operations [39]. - Regulatory news: HSBC was fined 4.2 million yuan by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission [40]. - Corporate earnings: Shell and Nongfu Spring released their mid - year results [40]. Industry - Oil price: Domestic oil prices were lowered for the seventh time this year [41]. - Logistics: China's logistics industry is expected to reach a total logistics volume of 380 trillion yuan in 2025 [42]. - Real estate: The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development and the central bank issued anti - money - laundering regulations for real estate institutions, and Suzhou relaxed housing transfer restrictions [44]. - Operating system: The new domestic operating system Galaxy Kylin V11 was released [44]. - AI field: China established an "Advanced Storage AI Inference Working Group" [45]. - Mobile market: The global and Chinese folding - screen mobile phone markets are expected to grow [45]. - Tourism: This year's summer tourism demand was strong, with an increase in order prices [45]. Overseas - Trade policies: Trump completed trade agreements with the EU, Japan, and South Korea and plans high furniture tariffs [48]. - Fed personnel: Trump removed Fed governor Lisa Cook, and there are disputes and power arrangements [48]. - Investment news: Japan invested $55 billion in the U.S., and South Korean companies increased their U.S. investments [49]. - Tariff exemption: The U.S. agreed in principle to exempt Indonesia's palm oil, cocoa, and rubber from tariffs [50]. - Postal service: Australia Post suspended most mail services to the U.S. due to tariffs [52]. International Stocks - U.S. stocks: The three major U.S. stock indices rose slightly, with different performances of individual stocks [53]. - European stocks: European major stock indices fell due to political risks in France and Fed personnel changes [53]. - Stock market innovation: The London Stock Exchange was approved to operate a new private stock market [54]. Commodities - Futures adjustment: The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted cast aluminum alloy futures' trading rules [55]. - Oil prices: International oil prices fell due to weak inventory data and supply concerns [55]. - Precious metals: International precious metals showed mixed results, with gold rising due to Fed concerns [56]. - Base metals: London base metals mostly rose due to expectations of Fed rate cuts [58]. - Gas imports: South Korea will purchase an additional 3.3 million tons of LNG from the U.S. annually from 2028 [59]. Bonds - Domestic bonds: Domestic inter - bank bond yields generally declined, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations [60]. - U.S. bonds: U.S. bond yields showed mixed results, and Trump's actions may affect long - term rates [60]. Foreign Exchange - RMB: The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar depreciated, and the central parity rate was adjusted downwards [61]. - Dollar index: The U.S. dollar index fell, and non - U.S. currencies mostly rose [62]. Upcoming Events - Multiple government departments will hold press conferences on August 27, 2025 [69]. - There are industry conferences and product launches scheduled from August 27 - 31, 2025 [69]. - Earnings reports of multiple companies will be released [69]. - A Fed official will give a speech [69]. - The Indian stock market is closed for the Ganesh Chaturthi festival [71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market is expected to remain in surplus in the second half of the year, with prices likely to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, supported by the full cost of high - cost regions (3000 - 3150). The trading logic may shift to cost - based pricing [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market will maintain high - level oscillations in the short term, with a price range of 20300 - 21000. There is upward momentum in the medium term as the peak season approaches and there are expectations of a Fed rate cut [4]. - The cast aluminum alloy market has strong cost support from scrap aluminum, but demand is weakening. The futures price generally follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum, and arbitrage operations can be considered when the price difference widens [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast - Alumina: The latest price is 3240 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 3000 - 3500 yuan/ton, a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 40.74%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of 90.74% [1]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The latest price is 20715 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 20000 - 21000 yuan/ton, a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.86%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of 41.99% [1]. - Aluminum alloy: The latest price is 20140 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 19500 - 20300 yuan/ton, a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.83%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of 37.50% [1]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Alumina** - Inventory management: When product inventory is high and worried about price drops, sell 75% of the alumina main futures contract at 3500 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. - Raw material management: When raw material inventory is low and worried about price increases, buy 50% of the alumina main futures contract at 3100 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. - **Electrolytic aluminum** - Inventory management: When product inventory is high and worried about price drops, sell 50% of the Shanghai aluminum main futures contract at 20700 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. - Raw material management: When raw material inventory is low and worried about price increases, buy 50% of the Shanghai aluminum main futures contract at 20500 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. - **Aluminum alloy** - Inventory management: When product inventory is high and worried about price drops, sell 50% of the aluminum alloy main futures contract at 20200 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. - Raw material management: When raw material inventory is low and worried about price increases, buy 50% of the aluminum alloy main futures contract at 19800 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. 3.3 Market Analysis of Each Product - **Alumina** - Core contradiction: The fundamental situation is weak, with high domestic operating capacity, incoming imported alumina, and expected new production capacity release in the second half of the year. The market trading logic may shift to cost - based pricing, and prices will fluctuate in the short term [2]. - Bullish factors: The Guinean government has revoked some mining licenses [2]. - Bearish factors: High operating capacity, rigid demand without increment, and increasing inventory [2][9]. - **Electrolytic aluminum** - Core contradiction: The fundamental situation has little change, with inventory accumulation not over yet. The price has limited downside space in the short term and may rise in the medium term [4]. - Bullish factors: Expectations of a Fed rate cut in September and approaching peak season [4]. - Bearish factors: Decreasing terminal factory orders, slightly lower downstream operating rates, and increasing social inventory [10]. - **Cast aluminum alloy** - Core contradiction: Scrap aluminum prices are high, providing cost support, but demand is weakening. The futures price follows Shanghai aluminum, and arbitrage operations can be considered [5]. - Bullish factors: High scrap aluminum prices and potential reduction in scrap aluminum imports [5]. - Bearish factors: Weakening demand expectations and serious over - capacity in the industry [7]. 3.4 Price and Spread Data - **Price data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures contracts, as well as LME aluminum prices, are provided [8][11]. - **Spread data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of spreads between different contracts of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy, as well as the ratio of aluminum main contract to alumina main contract, are provided [15]. 3.5 Import Profit and Loss - The latest import profit and loss data for aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy, along with their daily changes and daily change rates, are provided [24]. 3.6 Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data - **Warehouse receipt data**: The latest warehouse receipt data for Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, and alumina, including regional breakdowns, are provided [30]. - **Inventory data**: Seasonal inventory data for aluminum ingots in three regions, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum warehouse receipts, LME aluminum inventory, and Shanghai Futures Exchange alumina warehouse receipts are provided [30][33][35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Neutral [10] - Alumina: Neutral [10] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [10] 2. Core Viewpoints - Despite a significant decline in market sentiment this week, aluminum prices remained relatively resilient. During the off - season, the spot market's premium and discount were weak. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's growth - stabilization plan has no impact on the electrolytic aluminum supply side, but potential policy support for the consumption side should be monitored. Although social inventories are accumulating during the off - season, the expected increase is limited due to supply constraints. There is a need to be vigilant about the squeeze - out risk in the 08 contract. The post - decline correction after the anti - involution sentiment fades is an opportunity for long - term buying hedging [6]. - There are still issues with alumina warehouse receipts. The supply side continues to resume production due to profit incentives, and the current and expected surplus situation remains unchanged, with the social inventory accumulation rate increasing. The short - term surplus may be in transit and form warehouse receipts later, while the spot market remains in a tight - balance state [7][8]. - Aluminum alloy is in the off - season. The futures price fluctuates with aluminum prices. The supply of scrap and raw aluminum remains tight, and the cost side supports prices. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [9]. 3. Key Data Summary Aluminum Spot - On July 30, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,670 yuan/ton, with a change of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The East China aluminum spot premium and discount was - 10 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 20,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium and discount was - 180 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,660 yuan/ton, a change of 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium and discount was - 20 yuan/ton, a change of - 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On July 30, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20,585 yuan/ton, closed at 20,625 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The highest price was 20,675 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 20,570 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 125,168 lots, and the position was 261,363 lots [2]. Inventory - As of July 30, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 533,000 tons, a change of 2.3 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 51,217 tons, a change of - 1,857 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 460,350 tons, a change of 4,250 tons from the previous trading day. The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 43,200 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 63,600 tons [2][4]. Alumina Spot Price - On July 30, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,250 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,230 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,300 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,315 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 380 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On July 30, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,349 yuan/ton, closed at 3,326 yuan/ton, a change of 54 yuan/ton (1.65%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 3,406 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 3,286 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 567,566 lots, and the position was 148,574 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On July 30, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,100 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,300 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 19,600 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost of aluminum alloy was 20,078 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 278 yuan/ton [5]. 4. Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a neutral stance on aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy [10]. - Arbitrage: Conduct long - short arbitrage on Shanghai aluminum and go long on AD11 while shorting AL11 [10].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings. However, it provides specific investment advice for different futures varieties: - **Buy Recommendations**: Steel (RB2510), Gold (AU2510), Silver (AG2510), Ethanol (EG2509), Methanol (MA2509, M2509), Palm Oil (P2509/Y2509/O1509) [2] - **Sell Recommendations**: EC2510 (Container Shipping Index - European Line), Stainless Steel (SS2509 short - term strategy), PX2509 (short - at upper - range), PTA2509 (short - at upper - range), SR2509 (Sugar - rebound short), CF2509 (Cotton - mid - term short), JD2509 (Eggs - long - term short), CJ2601 (Jujube - long - term short) [2] - **Hold Recommendations**: IH2509 (put option short - position), IM2509 (long - position with reduced exposure), TF2509, TS2509, TI2509 (Treasury bonds - curve strategy), RB2510 (Steel), JM2509 (Coking Coal), J2509 (Coke), CU2509 (Copper), AL2509 (Aluminum), ZN2509 (Zinc), SM2508 (Antimony), NISE09 (Nickel), PR2509 (Bottle Chips), UR2509 (Urea - range operation), EG2509 (Ethanol - put option seller), RM509 (Rapeseed Meal - short - term long), C2509 (Corn - watch pressure), AP2510 (Apple - around 7900), PK2510 (Peanut - around 8100), FG2509 (Glass - watch risk), RU2509 (Rubber - watch) [2] 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: There is an obvious high - low rotation among sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and switch to a small number of put option short - positions in MO with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract. The large - finance sector is building up strength to rise, while the A - share market has risen and then fallen. The stock - bond seesaw effect is significant, and the short - term sentiment transmission still affects the bond market, with the future dependent on the Politburo meeting's incremental policies [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The news of a trade agreement between the US and countries like Europe and Japan eases the risk - aversion sentiment, causing gold to fall from its high. Gold maintains a relatively strong oscillation above the 60 - day moving average due to the weakening credit and the driving of the commodity attribute. Silver has further room to rise under the support of the general rise of domestic industrial products and capital inflow, and long positions can be held [2]. - **Shipping and Black Metals**: The container shipping index (European Line) is expected to be weak in the near - month, and it is advisable to short the 08 contract or short the 10 contract at high prices. In the black metals sector, the sentiment has improved, with increased iron - water production and steel mills' restocking. However, there are different strategies for different products such as taking profits on long positions in iron ore, coking coal, and coke at high prices [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and Energy Chemicals**: Copper prices are oscillating strongly due to anti - involution policies. Alumina prices have fallen from the high due to concerns about the resumption of factory capacity in Shanxi. In the energy chemicals sector, different products face different market conditions, such as short - term weakness in oil prices, and different trading strategies are proposed for each product [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different market trends. For example, palm oil is strong, sugar has a loose overseas supply and is recommended to be shorted on rebounds, and cotton is strong in the short - term but shorted at high prices in the medium - term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: There is high - low rotation among sectors, large - finance is building up strength, and the A - share market has risen and then fallen. The stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Gradually take profits on IM long positions, switch to MO put option short - positions, and be mainly moderately bullish. In the short - term, adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and focus on the Politburo meeting [2]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Situation**: The short - term sentiment transmission affects the bond market, and it is difficult to say that it has stabilized [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Focus on the Politburo meeting's incremental policies and actual demand changes. Continue to play the steepening strategy for the yield curve [2]. Precious Metals - **Market Situation**: Gold has fallen from the high due to eased risk - aversion, while silver has the potential to rise further [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Hold long positions in silver, and gold maintains a relatively strong oscillation above the 60 - day moving average [2]. Shipping and Black Metals - **Market Situation**: The container shipping index (European Line) is falling, and the black metals sector has improved sentiment with increased iron - water production and restocking [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Short the container shipping index contracts; take profits on long positions in iron ore, coking coal, and coke at high prices, and hold long positions in steel [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Market Situation**: Copper prices are oscillating strongly, alumina prices have fallen from the high, and other non - ferrous metals have different price trends [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Different trading ranges and strategies are proposed for each non - ferrous metal product [2]. Energy Chemicals - **Market Situation**: Oil prices are weak in the short - term, and different energy chemicals products face different supply - demand and market sentiment situations [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Different trading strategies such as range trading, shorting at high prices, and option trading are proposed for each product [2]. Agricultural Products - **Market Situation**: Different agricultural products have different supply - demand and price trends, such as strong palm oil and loose sugar supply [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Different trading strategies are proposed for each agricultural product, such as shorting on rebounds for sugar and shorting at high prices in the medium - term for cotton [2]. Special Commodities - **Market Situation**: Glass and rubber are affected by macro and sentiment factors, with large price fluctuations [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Observe and pay attention to risk avoidance for glass, and adopt a wait - and - see strategy for rubber [2]. New Energy - Related Commodities - **Market Situation**: Industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate have different price trends and market situations [3]. - **Investment Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for all of them and pay attention to price risks [3].

Report Summary 1. Core View - The market is influenced by various factors such as international situations, monetary policies, and supply - demand relationships. Different commodities show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3]. 2. Summary by Commodity Categories a. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: With short - term international situation changes and improved macro - situation, the stock index is strongly rising. It is recommended to buy the deeply discounted 09 contracts on dips in the CSI 1000 and sell the 09 call options above 6300 to form a covered combination [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Near the end of the month, the bond market may anticipate the central bank's bond - buying restart. Although there are short - term fluctuations, the overall strong pattern may remain. It is advisable to allocate long positions on adjustments and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract and the steepening curve strategy [2]. b. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to stabilize at $3300 and maintain high - level oscillations. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options. Silver is fluctuating in the range of $35.5 - $36.5, and a double - selling strategy for out - of - the - money options on Shanghai silver can be tried [2]. c. Shipping and Industrial Materials - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC disk is declining, and the price is weakly oscillating. Unilateral operations should be on hold for now, and attention can be paid to the long - material and short - raw - material arbitrage operation [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. For steel, pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For iron ore, try shorting on rebounds with the upper pressure level around 720 [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market has seen an improvement in trading, and it is recommended to go long on coking coal on dips or long coking coal and short coke. The fourth round of price cuts for coke by mainstream steel mills has been implemented, and the price is approaching the phased bottom [2]. d. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Due to the decline in geopolitical risk premium, the crude oil disk is weakly operating. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. PX, PTA, and other products are affected by the decline in oil prices and are treated with short - term caution and a bearish attitude [3]. - **Other Chemicals**: For short - fiber, bottle - chip, and other products, different strategies are proposed according to factors such as production reduction expectations and processing fee repair expectations. For example, short - fiber can be treated the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the PF disk can be expanded at a low level [3]. e. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Soybean meal is following the decline of US soybeans, and attention should be paid to subsequent weather speculation. For oils, they are following the decline of crude oil, and for example, P2509 is testing the support at 8200 [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Different strategies are proposed for various agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, eggs, etc. For example, sugar is traded bearishly on rebounds in the range of 5600 - 5850, and cotton is traded bearishly on rebounds with attention to the pressure level around 13700 [3]. f. Special and New Energy Commodities - **Special Commodities**: For soda ash, maintain a high - level short - selling strategy on rebounds. For glass, the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 950 - 1050 [3]. - **New Energy Commodities**: For polycrystalline silicon, hold short positions cautiously. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Geopolitical ceasefire [2][4] - Silver: Continue to soar [2][4] - Copper: Declining inventory supports prices [2][10] - Aluminum: Weak operation [2][13] - Alumina: Bottom - range oscillation [2][13] - Aluminum alloy: Deeper into the off - season [2][13] - Zinc: Narrow - range adjustment [2][16] - Lead: Strong in the medium term [2][18] - Tin: Tight current situation, weak future expectations [2][21] - Nickel: Loosening expectations at the distal nickel ore end, smelting end restricts upside potential [2] - Stainless steel: Both supply and demand are marginally weak, steel prices oscillate at low levels [2][26] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: Yesterday, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2508, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2508 decreased by 1.21%, 1.19%, and 1.36% respectively. The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2508, Silver T + D, and Comex Silver 2508 decreased by 0.36%, 0.24%, and 0.52% respectively. In terms of trading volume and positions, there were corresponding changes. ETF positions and inventory also showed different trends [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Powell's congressional hearing on the first day, Trump's call for interest rate cuts, Israel's cease - fire in military operations against Iran, the EU's preparation for tariff counter - measures against the US, and China's six - department financial promotion of consumption policies [5][7][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is - 1, silver trend intensity is - 1 [8]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract increased by 0.45%, and the night - session closing price decreased by 0.22%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.31%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Powell's congressional hearing, the cease - fire between Israel and Iran leading to a rise in US stocks, a new copper smelter in India starting processing, a Japanese company cutting copper production, China's decline in copper ore imports, and Mexico's decision not to issue new mining concessions [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0 [12]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract, LME Aluminum 3M, Shanghai Alumina main contract, and Aluminum Alloy main contract showed different trends. There were also changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads and premiums [13]. - **Comprehensive News**: The approaching deadline for the US tariff suspension, a surge in Asian exports to the US, and expected changes in the US trade deficit [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity is 0, alumina trend intensity is 0, aluminum alloy trend intensity is 0 [15]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 0.64%, and the closing price of the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk increased by 1.40%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads and premiums [16]. - **News**: Powell's congressional hearing [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [16]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 0.24%, and the closing price of the LME Lead 3M electronic disk increased by 0.60%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads and premiums [18]. - **News**: Powell's congressional hearing [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 1 [19]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased by 0.73%, and the closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.34%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads and premiums [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Powell's congressional hearing, Trump's call for interest rate cuts, Israel's cease - fire in military operations against Iran, the EU's preparation for tariff counter - measures against the US, and China's six - department financial promotion of consumption policies [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 0 [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Nickel main contract and the Stainless Steel main contract showed different trends. There were also changes in trading volume, positions, and various price spreads and premiums in the industrial chain [26]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada's potential suspension of nickel exports to the US, a nickel project in Indonesia entering trial production, a nickel smelter resuming production, a cold - rolling mill in Indonesia planning maintenance, the removal of the raw ore export ban in the Philippines, and environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park [26][27][29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [29].

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the industry investment ratings in the provided content. Core Views - Gold: Geopolitical ceasefire [2] - Silver: Continue to surge [2] - Copper: Decreasing inventory supports prices [2] - Aluminum: Awaiting direction selection [2] - Alumina: Range-bound oscillation [2] - Aluminum alloy: Under pressure [2] - Zinc: Short - term upward movement with position reduction [2] - Lead: Bullish in the medium - term [2] - Tin: Tight current situation but weak future expectations [2] - Nickel: Loosening expectations at the distal nickel ore end, and smelting end restricts upward elasticity [2] - Stainless steel: Both supply and demand are marginally weak, and steel prices fluctuate at a low level [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Gold - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2508 was 781.30, with a daily increase of 0.35%. The trading volume of Comex Gold 2508 decreased by 86,664 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 3,014 [5]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold remained unchanged, and the spread between Gold T + D and London Gold was 392.59 [5]. Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2508 was 8770, with a daily increase of 1.20%. The trading volume of Comex Silver 2508 decreased by 53,919 compared to the previous day [5]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Silver decreased by 12,761 kg, and the spread between Silver T + D and London Silver was 3,741 [5]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,290, with a daily increase of 0.38%. The trading volume of the London Copper 3M electronic disk decreased by 3,657 compared to the previous day [10]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 8,354 tons, and the inventory of London Copper decreased by 3,325 tons. The spread between Shanghai copper spot and LME cash decreased by 280 [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Israel and Iran agreed to a comprehensive cease - fire. In May 2025, China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products decreased by 23.6% year - on - year [10][12]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy Aluminum - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,365, down 100 from the previous day. The trading volume of the LME Aluminum 3M increased by 19,786 compared to the previous day [13]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The LME注销仓单占比 was 5.62%, down 0.52% from the previous day. The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive - first contract was 100 [13]. Alumina - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,906. The trading volume of the Shanghai Alumina main contract increased by 11,654 compared to the previous day [13]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive - first contract was 58, down 3 from the previous day [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 19,680, up 40 from the previous day. The trading volume of the aluminum alloy main contract decreased by 1,426 compared to the previous day [13]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The spot premium was 160, down 20 from the previous day [13]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 21,780, with a daily increase of 0.48%. The trading volume of the London Zinc increased by 38 compared to the previous day [16]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc decreased by 1,024 tons, and the LME CASH - 3M premium was - 24.65, up 2.24 from the previous day [16]. - **News**: Israel and Iran agreed to a comprehensive cease - fire [17]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16,920, with a daily increase of 0.65%. The trading volume of the London Lead increased by 157 compared to the previous day [19]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead decreased by 100 tons, and the LME CASH - 3M premium was - 28.49, up 2.72 from the previous day [19]. - **News**: Israel and Iran agreed to a comprehensive cease - fire [20]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 261,880, with a daily increase of 0.51%. The trading volume of the London Tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 9 compared to the previous day [23]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin increased by 32 tons, and the SMM 1 tin ingot price decreased by 1,500 compared to the previous day [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Israel and Iran agreed to a comprehensive cease - fire [24]. Stainless Steel and Nickel Nickel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 117,440, down 840 from the previous day. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract increased by 34,478 compared to the previous day [27]. - **Industry Chain Data**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1, and the spread between nickel plate and high - nickel iron was 264 [27]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,390, down 115 from the previous day. The trading volume of the stainless steel main contract increased by 55,928 compared to the previous day [27]. - **Industry News**: Some nickel - related projects in Canada, Indonesia, and the Philippines have new developments, and an Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue to shut down for maintenance [27][28][30].

Core Viewpoint - The newly launched aluminum alloy futures have attracted significant market attention, with initial trading showing a strong upward trend due to lower listing prices compared to spot prices [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On the first trading day, aluminum alloy futures saw an overall increase, with the main contract 2511 rising by over 4% [2]. - The weighted average price of aluminum alloy increased by 4.41%, reaching 19,175 [2]. - The main continuous contract rose by 4.49%, with a latest price of 6,161 [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Due to the lack of historical data for the newly listed aluminum alloy futures, traders are advised to focus on smaller time frame charts to capture sufficient volatility details for decision-making [4]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - Approximately 70% of the aluminum alloy futures correspond to the transportation sector, including automotive, motorcycle, and electric vehicle industries, while the remaining demand comes from power electronics, home appliances, and machinery manufacturing [7]. - Despite being in a consumption off-season with low purchasing enthusiasm from downstream processing enterprises, the upcoming 618 mid-year consumption event and stable order volumes from automotive profile manufacturers may provide short-term support for aluminum alloy prices [7]. - However, there are concerns about potential oversupply due to relatively low technical barriers in aluminum alloy production, which could lead to high inventory pressure and selling hedging pressure if terminal consumption weakens [9].