格隆汇1月8日｜华泰证券发表报告，维持对雅迪控股的"买入"评级，目标价为18.63港元。公司预计 2025年纯利不少于29亿元，按年增长超过128%，主要受电动两轮车销量增长及产品结构优化推动。 2025年两轮车销量预计超过1620万辆，单车净利润按年增逾80%至超过180元。该行指出，随着高毛利 产品占比增加及规模效应显现，2026年单车净利润有望继续提升。同时，公司以冠能和摩登品牌发力中 高端市场，并提升电池自供比例，进一步强化盈利能力。随着海外产能释放与渠道网络完善，该行看好 公司在油改电的趋势中持续受益，打开第二增长曲线。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The electric vehicle industry is undergoing a critical transformation from scale expansion to high-quality development, driven by the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles, which emphasizes safety and raises industry entry barriers [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Transformation - The new national standard serves as a fundamental baseline for safety, effectively pushing the industry from "barbaric growth" to standardized and intelligent development [2]. - Yadea is taking a leading role in the industry by quickly switching production lines and launching the first national standard flagship store, establishing a compliant product system with 71 models [5]. Group 2: New Retail Strategy - Yadea's summit focuses on the integration of new retail and new consumption, emphasizing a user-centered digital transformation that leverages big data to analyze user riding habits and consumption preferences [2]. - The company is enhancing online and offline service experiences, with online live streaming becoming a key growth area and offline services including standardized test rides for better customer convenience [2]. Group 3: Brand Modernization - To align with new consumer trends, Yadea is advancing its brand youthfulness and intelligence strategies, engaging with younger consumers through events like the 717 Global Riding Festival and collaborations with brands like Sanrio and new tea beverage brands [5]. - The summit featured interactive experience zones showcasing product themes and the introduction of AI-powered travel companions, reflecting the company's commitment to smart travel solutions [5][7]. Group 4: Collaborative Ecosystem - Looking towards 2026, Yadea aims to collaborate with all operators to build a new cooperative ecosystem, focusing on production capacity and product supply while setting clear goals for operators to drive terminal growth [6].

Core Viewpoint - Yadea Holdings (01585.HK) is facing significant challenges, including regulatory penalties and declining financial performance, amidst increasing competition in the electric two-wheeler market [1][6][11]. Regulatory Issues - Yadea Industrial Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Yadea Holdings, received an administrative penalty of RMB 30,000 from the Tianjin Emergency Management Bureau for product quality issues [2][3]. - In June 2024, Yadea was listed among brands with non-compliant electric bicycle products, highlighting ongoing quality control challenges [2][5]. Financial Performance - For the year 2024, Yadea reported revenues of RMB 28.236 billion, a decrease of 18.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 1.272 billion, down 51.8% [6][9]. - The decline in performance is attributed to heightened public concern over battery safety following a fire incident in Nanjing, which reduced demand for electric two-wheelers [8][10]. Market Competition - Yadea's market position is under pressure from competitors like Ninebot and Aima Technology, which have reported significant revenue and profit growth [11]. - Aima Technology surpassed Yadea in net profit for the first time, indicating a shift in market leadership [11]. Product Strategy and Market Trends - Yadea has attempted to diversify its product offerings, including high-end brands and models targeting female consumers, but has not seen a corresponding increase in average selling prices [12][14]. - In 2024, the average price of Yadea's electric two-wheelers remained relatively stable at approximately RMB 1,487, with total sales volume decreasing by 21.2% to 13 million units [14][16]. Future Outlook - Yadea plans to innovate and adapt to new national standards for electric two-wheelers, aiming to stabilize the market and regain growth [16]. - The company is focusing on a dual strategy of "sodium batteries + battery swapping" to enhance its competitive edge in the evolving electric mobility landscape [16].

Core Insights - Yadea Holdings (01585.HK) reported its most severe performance decline since its listing, with 2024 revenue of 28.236 billion yuan, down 18.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.272 billion yuan, plunging 51.8%, marking a five-year low [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Total sales of Yadea's electric two-wheelers dropped from 16.5 million units in 2023 to 13.02 million units in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 21.18%, significantly exceeding the industry decline of 11.6% [3] - Revenue loss of approximately 6.5 billion yuan due to reduced sales, coupled with a clearance strategy that lowered gross margin from 16.9% to 15.2%, the lowest in seven years [3] - Inventory increased to 1.653 billion yuan, up 33.9% year-on-year, indicating a decline in dealer inventory turnover and reduced confidence [3] Group 2: Market Challenges - Yadea's long-standing "low price + channel" strategy faces severe challenges as the industry shifts towards stock competition, making its extensive network of over 40,000 sales points a burden [2][3] - The company holds only a 4.1% market share in the high-end segment (priced above 7,000 yuan), significantly lower than competitors like Ninebot (51.7%) and Niu Technologies (43.8%) [4] - Quality issues have emerged, with multiple models flagged in a regulatory inspection, and high complaint volumes regarding battery life and after-sales service, damaging brand reputation [4] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Yadea is attempting to pivot through technological upgrades and a global strategy, launching sodium-ion battery electric vehicles in 2023 and investing 1.147 billion yuan in R&D in 2024, totaling over 5.93 billion yuan [4] - Southeast Asia is a strategic focus, with production capacity in Vietnam increasing to 500,000 units and a new factory in Indonesia expected to reach a total capacity of 3.5 million units, leading to a 23% year-on-year growth in overseas revenue [4] Group 4: Industry Context - Yadea's struggles reflect broader industry trends, highlighting the need for traditional manufacturers to break away from path dependence and rebuild core competitiveness in an era driven by technology and consumer upgrades [5]