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气象学者:我们已经身处危机时代,而不是在讨论一个遥远的未来
Hu Xiu· 2025-08-06 23:53
Group 1 - The article emphasizes that extreme weather events are becoming a norm due to climate change, with significant impacts on agriculture, urban operations, and daily life [3][4][6] - The average temperature in Henan province reached 30.5°C in July, which is 3.2°C higher than the historical average, marking the hottest period in 64 years [1][2] - The article highlights the urgent need for scientific understanding and effective responses to climate change challenges, as the current preparations are insufficient [11][12] Group 2 - The frequency of extreme weather events has increased significantly, with a notable rise in climate-related disasters over the past two decades [4][6] - The article discusses the dual impact of global warming, leading to more severe droughts and floods, which poses a threat to major grain-producing areas in China [3][8][16] - The agricultural sector is facing challenges such as increased irrigation costs and crop growth disruptions due to extreme temperatures [17][19] Group 3 - The article suggests that the transition to green energy is essential, requiring five times the current efforts to mitigate future disaster losses [12][13] - It points out that the agricultural infrastructure needs significant upgrades to adapt to extreme weather, including improved irrigation and drainage systems [20] - The potential for "weather-related price hikes" in agricultural products is highlighted, with extreme weather already causing fluctuations in global commodity prices [21][22] Group 4 - The article indicates that extreme weather will increasingly affect various industries, necessitating new financial tools for agricultural insurance [23] - It mentions that sectors like renewable energy and urban planning must adapt to the challenges posed by extreme weather events [24][25] - The need for a long-term strategy to combat climate change is emphasized, with a focus on adhering to national carbon neutrality goals [26]
气象学者魏科:我们已经身处危机时代,而不是在讨论一个遥远的未来
经济观察报· 2025-08-06 13:47
气候极端化已经成为一种常态。现在的研究表明,全球变暖会 带来一个效应——涝的更涝,旱的更旱。即短期内,一定区域 内的降雨强度更高或高温干旱十分严重,甚至出现短期内的旱 涝急转。 作者:冯雨欣 田进 封图:图虫创意 近几年,全球极端天气事件频发,极端气候正在以肉眼可见的方式侵入现实生活。 今年夏天,国内不同地区出现的暴雨、洪涝、高温等天气,对人们的生产生活产生重大影响,引发 了社会各界的关注。7月以来,河南省平均气温达30.5℃(摄氏度),较常年异常偏高3.2℃,为64 年来同期最热。截至8月2日,未来几天中东部将呈现"雨—热—雨"的天气格局,陕西南部、四川 东部、重庆、湖北西部等部分地区气温将突破40℃;而在高压系统南北两侧,广东、广西等地则迎 来暴雨天气。 在刚刚过去的7月,我国北方大部降雨量较常年同期偏多,共有5轮暴雨过程轮番影响。截至7月31 日,内蒙古降水量为1961年以来历史同期最多,北京为同期第二多。 随着极端天气对农业生产、城市运行、民众生活等诸多方面的冲击不断显现,如何科学认识气候变 化趋势、有效应对其带来的挑战,已成为亟待解答的重要课题。 8月3日,经济观察报专访了中国科学院大气物理研究所季 ...
USDA干旱报告:美国大豆受干旱影响区域减少 会否对美豆价格影响几何?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-17 18:52
Core Insights - The latest USDA drought report indicates that various major agricultural regions in the U.S. are experiencing drought conditions ranging from moderate (D1) to extreme (D3) as of July 15, 2025, significantly impacting grain, cash crops, and livestock [1] Grain Sector - Durum Wheat: 41% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week, but up 35 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Spring Wheat: 36% of the production area is under drought conditions, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous week and up 28 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Winter Wheat: 30% of the production area is under drought conditions, an increase of 4 percentage points from the previous week and up 6 percentage points year-on-year [5] - Corn: 9% of the production area is under drought conditions, a decrease of 3 percentage points from the previous week but up 4 percentage points year-on-year [6] - Soybeans: 7% of the production area is under drought conditions, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous week but up 2 percentage points year-on-year [7] - Barley: 59% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week but up 33 percentage points year-on-year [8] - Sorghum: 7% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week but down 14 percentage points year-on-year [9] - Rice: 1% of the production area is affected by drought, unchanged from the previous week and the same as last year [10] Cash Crop Sector - Cotton: 3% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week but down 16 percentage points year-on-year [11] - Peanuts: 1% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week and down 14 percentage points year-on-year [12] - Sunflowers: 8% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week and up 5 percentage points year-on-year [13] - Sugarbeets: 39% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week and up 36 percentage points year-on-year [14] - Sugarcane: 30% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week and up 30 percentage points year-on-year [15] Livestock Sector - Hay: 18% of the production area is under drought conditions, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous week but up 2 percentage points year-on-year [16] - Alfalfa Hay: 30% of the production area is under drought conditions, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous week and up 13 percentage points year-on-year [17] - Cattle: 15% of the production area is under drought conditions, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous week and unchanged year-on-year [18] - Sheep: 29% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week and up 9 percentage points year-on-year [18] - Milk Cows: 22% of the production area is under drought conditions, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous week and up 10 percentage points year-on-year [19] - Hogs: 4% of the production area is under drought conditions, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous week and down 3 percentage points year-on-year [19]
国家统计局农村司副司长魏锋华解读夏粮生产情况
Guo Jia Tong Ji Ju· 2025-07-10 01:38
2025年全国夏粮稳产丰收 2025年全国夏粮播种面积3.99亿亩,比上年减少52.0万亩,下降0.1%,保持基本稳定。分品种看,小麦 播种面积3.46亿亩,减少26.1万亩,下降0.1%。其中,冬小麦播种面积3.39亿亩,增加5.7万亩,持平略 增。分地区看,在25个有夏粮生产的省(区、市)中,20个播种面积增加,其中安徽、河北、山西、四川 分别增加17.5万亩、15.1万亩、11.2万亩和10.8万亩。西部部分地区持续调整夏秋作物种植结构,调减夏 杂粮、春小麦等夏收作物,改种玉米等秋粮作物,夏粮播种面积有所减少。 夏粮播种面积保持基本稳定的主要原因:一是层层压实生产责任。各地坚决落实粮食安全党政同责,严 格耕地保护和用途管控,高质量推进高标准农田建设,加大撂荒地复耕复垦力度,进一步挖掘种植潜 力。二是持续强化政策支持。今年国家进一步健全粮食生产支持政策体系,提高小麦最低收购价,稳定 耕地地力保护补贴政策,扩大完全成本保险和种植收入保险投保面积,启动实施中央统筹下的粮食产销 区省际横向利益补偿,有力调动了农民种粮和地方抓粮的积极性。三是播期气候条件适宜。上年秋冬播 期间,冬小麦主产区光温水匹配良好,土壤墒情 ...
古贝春系列通讯之二:粮骨曲魂——北派浓香的品质哲学
Qi Lu Wan Bao· 2025-07-04 03:36
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the innovative advancements in the production of high-quality liquor at Gubeichun, emphasizing the integration of scientific research and traditional brewing techniques to enhance product quality and efficiency. Group 1: Agricultural Innovations - The introduction of the Jiliang 4 sorghum variety has shown remarkable advantages, including a starch content of 74.33% and a fermentation yield of 42.2%, surpassing ordinary sorghum by 2% [4] - Gubeichun has collaborated with Shandong Agricultural Academy since 2012 to develop specialized brewing grains, culminating in the successful trial planting of Jiliang 3 and 4 in 2020 [2][4] Group 2: Microbial and Fermentation Techniques - The company has developed a new artificial pit mud cultivation technique that combines wild and domesticated strains, significantly improving the stability and activity of the microbial community used in brewing [8][10] - Innovations in fermentation processes, such as extending the fermentation period from 70 to 90 days, have been implemented to adapt to the northern climate, enhancing the overall quality of the liquor [12][13] Group 3: Storage and Aging Methods - Gubeichun employs a dual storage system using both traditional ceramic jars and modern stainless steel tanks, optimizing the aging process and ensuring product quality [14][17] - The introduction of the "three-step cycle storage and BQCY technology" has increased the annual production of high-quality liquor by 980 tons while optimizing resource usage [17][18] Group 4: Quality Recognition - The company has received multiple awards for its quality, including the 2024 "Qingzhao Award" at the China International Wine Expo, reflecting its commitment to excellence in liquor production [19]
整理:每日期货市场要闻速递(6月24日)
news flash· 2025-06-23 23:46
Group 1 - Mysteel data indicates that the total amount of iron ore arriving at Chinese ports from June 16 to June 22, 2025, was 25.627 million tons, an increase of 1.782 million tons compared to the previous week [1] - According to SPPOMA, Malaysia's palm oil yield per hectare increased by 2.67% from June 1 to June 20, 2025, while the extraction rate decreased by 0.03%, resulting in a production increase of 2.5% compared to the same period last month [1] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced the addition of several companies as designated delivery service providers for red dates futures, effective immediately [1] Group 2 - As of June 23, 2025, the total inventory of styrene at Jiangsu ports was 85,000 tons, an increase of 18,700 tons, representing a 28.21% rise compared to the previous period [1] - Mysteel's survey shows that as of June 20, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions of China was 886,300 tons, an increase of 39,300 tons, or 4.64%, compared to the previous week [2] - The USDA's weekly crop progress report indicated that as of June 22, 2025, the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. soybeans was 66%, below market expectations of 67%, while corn was rated at 70%, below expectations of 72% [2]
未来十天北方多晴少雨利于推进夏收夏种 长江中下游降雨偏多及时清沟理渠
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-06-02 03:40
Weather Characteristics and Agricultural Impact Analysis - This week (May 25-31, 2025), northern agricultural regions experienced temperatures close to or 1-2°C higher than the historical average, with some areas in the northeast and northwest exceeding 4°C above average [2] - Southern agricultural regions saw temperatures near or 1-2°C below the historical average, with certain areas in Jiangnan, South China, Yunnan, and southern Guizhou being 2-4°C lower [2] - Precipitation in northern regions ranged from 10-50 mm, while parts of Jiangnan, North China, and Yunnan experienced 50-100 mm, and some areas received 100-250 mm, significantly above the historical average [2] - Sunshine hours were generally close to historical averages, with some areas in northeastern Jiangnan and eastern Heilongjiang seeing increases of 30-80% [2][7] Agricultural Production Impact Analysis - In the northeast, favorable light and heat conditions benefited the growth of dryland crops and rice transplanting [8] - The northern winter wheat region had predominantly sunny weather, facilitating the harvesting of mature winter wheat, although rain from May 30 to June 1 may temporarily hinder harvesting in some areas [8] - In the southern regions, heavy rainfall led to flooding in low-lying fields, affecting crops like lychee and mango, while persistent rain hindered crop growth and pest monitoring [9] Future Weather Impact Forecast and Recommendations - The next ten days are expected to have suitable conditions for the growth of corn and soybeans in the northeast, while heavy rainfall in parts of Heilongjiang may cause temporary flooding [10] - Northern regions will experience mostly sunny weather, which is beneficial for harvesting winter wheat and planting summer corn, but high temperatures (35-38°C) from June 5-7 may disrupt wheat maturation [10] - Recommendations include managing dryland crops and water levels in rice fields, ensuring timely harvesting and planting, and maintaining agricultural water infrastructure in southern regions to mitigate flooding risks [11]
稳中求进每月看|破浪前行风帆劲——5月全国各地经济社会发展观察
Xin Hua She· 2025-05-29 13:57
Group 1: Consumption and Economic Growth - The consumption sector is experiencing a revival, driven by the "holiday economy," with 314 million domestic trips taken during the May Day holiday, a 6.4% increase year-on-year, and total spending reaching 180.27 billion yuan, up 8.0% [3][4] - Various regions are implementing policies to boost consumption, such as Guangdong's consumption promotion plan and Hunan's 2025 implementation plan, enhancing consumer vitality [4][7] Group 2: Agricultural Production - The summer grain harvest is progressing well, with 70.05 million acres of wheat harvested by May 26, and the use of machinery has significantly improved efficiency in harvesting [8][10] - Some regions are facing drought conditions affecting summer grain production, prompting proactive measures to ensure a successful harvest [10] Group 3: Employment Opportunities - Various initiatives are being launched to enhance employment services, including the "Million Talents Gathering" program and the introduction of flexible job models like "Mom Jobs" in Shandong, which has created over 18,000 positions [11][12][15] - The government is focusing on improving job matching and providing targeted training to support job seekers [15][17] Group 4: Urban Renewal - Urban renewal projects are being actively pursued, with Shanghai's recent initiatives showcasing a blend of historical preservation and modern functionality [18][20] - The central government has outlined a roadmap for urban renewal, emphasizing the need for balanced development and improved living conditions [20][23]
我国夏季粮油陆续收获 冬油菜已超八成
news flash· 2025-05-24 12:23
Core Viewpoint - The summer grain and oil harvest in China is underway, with over 80% of winter rapeseed already harvested and winter wheat entering a critical yield formation period [1] Group 1: Harvest Progress - The winter wheat harvest is beginning in key regions such as the Huang-Huai-Hai area, while the southwestern and middle-lower Yangtze regions have also started harvesting [1] - The national progress of winter rapeseed harvesting has exceeded 80%, with expectations for this year's yield per unit area to be higher than last year's [1]
全国冬小麦陆续开镰
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-05-23 21:56
Group 1 - The summer grain and oil harvest season is underway in China, with efforts focused on ensuring a bountiful harvest to solidify the foundation for annual grain production [2] - Winter wheat is a major summer grain crop in China, with significant harvesting expected in the Huang-Huai-Hai region in about 10 days, while harvesting has already begun in the Southwest and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River [2] - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs have allocated 376 million yuan to support drought relief efforts in six provinces, including Shanxi, Jiangsu, Anhui, Henan, Guangxi, and Shaanxi [4] Group 2 - Winter rapeseed, a key summer oilseed crop, is nearing large-scale harvest along the Yangtze River, with nearly 80% of the crop already harvested and expected yields to surpass last year's levels [4] - The central government has allocated over 3 billion yuan in advance for rapeseed production, enhancing support for the crop, and local initiatives are being implemented to improve yields through advanced agricultural techniques [4] - Spring sowing progress is generally smooth, with over 80% of spring grains already sown, entering the final stages of planting [4]