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波司登(03998):上半财年稳健增长,下半财年经营有望提速
Orient Securities· 2025-12-01 14:14
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][9] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in the first half of FY2026, with a notable performance in its main product line, down jackets, which showed resilience during the off-season [8] - The company’s revenue and profit are projected to accelerate in the second half of FY2026, supported by favorable inventory levels and an extended sales season due to the late Chinese New Year [8] - The company aims to maintain sustainable growth over the next three years through a dual-focus strategy on its down jacket core business and a multi-brand matrix [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY2024A is projected at 23,214 million, with a year-on-year growth of 38.4%, and is expected to reach 34,759 million by FY2028E, with a CAGR of approximately 10.6% [3] - Operating profit is forecasted to grow from 4,398 million in FY2024A to 6,711 million in FY2028E, reflecting a steady increase in profitability [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 3,074 million in FY2024A to 4,879 million in FY2028E, with a CAGR of 11.8% [3] - Earnings per share are projected to increase from 0.26 in FY2024A to 0.42 in FY2028E [3] Valuation Metrics - The target price is set at 6.36 HKD, based on a 17x PE ratio for FY2026 [3][9] - The company’s PE ratio is expected to decrease from 17.1 in FY2024A to 10.7 in FY2028E, indicating improving valuation attractiveness [3] - The PB ratio is projected to decline from 4.0 in FY2024A to 2.5 in FY2028E, suggesting a potential undervaluation over the forecast period [3]
波司登(03998):核心品牌稳健,提效去库旺季轻装上阵业绩概要
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [6][8]. Core Insights - The company's core brand, Bosideng, shows steady growth, with a revenue of 65.7 billion RMB in the first half of the fiscal year 2025/26, representing an 8% year-on-year increase. The main brand generated 57.2 billion RMB, also up 8% year-on-year [6][8]. - The overall revenue for the first half of the fiscal year reached 89.3 billion RMB, a 1.4% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 11.9 billion RMB, up 5.3% year-on-year, although this was below expectations [6][8]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.063 HKD per share [6]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a gross margin of 50.03% for the first half of the fiscal year, an increase of 0.15 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the higher proportion of down jacket sales [8]. - The revenue breakdown shows that the down jacket business accounts for 73.6% of total revenue, while OEM management contributes 22.9%, women's wear 2.8%, and diversified clothing 0.7% [4][8]. - The company expects net profits for the fiscal years 2025/26, 2026/27, and 2027/28 to be 39.4 billion RMB, 44 billion RMB, and 48.6 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 11.7%, and 10.4% [8][10]. Stock Performance - The stock price as of November 28, 2025, was 4.96 HKD, with a 12-month high of 5.2 HKD and a low of 3.41 HKD. The market capitalization is approximately 414.99 billion RMB [2][6]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 13 times for the fiscal year 2025/26, decreasing to 11 times by 2027/28 [10].
光大证券:维持波司登(03998)“买入”评级 品牌羽绒服业务稳健增长
智通财经网· 2025-12-01 03:04
Core Viewpoint - Everbright Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Bosideng (03998), highlighting stable revenue growth and an increase in net profit margin despite a volatile external environment [1][2] Financial Performance - For the first half of the 2025/2026 fiscal year, Bosideng reported revenue of 8.93 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and a net profit of 1.19 billion RMB, up 5.3% year-on-year [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) stood at 0.1 RMB, with a proposed interim dividend of 0.063 HKD per share [2] - Gross margin improved by 0.1 percentage points to 50%, operating margin increased by 0.3 percentage points to 17%, and net profit margin rose by 0.5 percentage points to 13.3% [2] Business Segmentation - The revenue breakdown for the first half of the fiscal year shows that the brand down jacket business accounted for 73.6% of total revenue, with OEM management at 22.9%, women's wear at 2.8%, and diversified clothing at 0.7% [3] - Within the down jacket segment, the main brand Bosideng contributed 87.1% of revenue, with other brands like Xuezhongfei and Bingjie contributing 5.8% and 0.2% respectively [3] - Revenue from self-operated and wholesale channels in the down jacket business grew by 6.6% and 7.9% respectively, while online sales reached 1.43 billion RMB, a 2.2% increase year-on-year [3] Store Expansion - As of September 2025, Bosideng operated 3,558 down jacket stores, a net increase of 88 stores (+2.5%) since the beginning of the fiscal year [4] - The breakdown of stores shows 1,239 self-operated and 2,319 franchised stores, with increases of 3 and 85 stores respectively [4] Profitability and Cash Flow - The gross margin for the brand down jacket business was 59.1%, with Bosideng and Xuezhongfei at 64.8% and 47.9% respectively [5] - The overall expense ratio decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 32.4% [5] - As of September 2025, inventory was 4.74 billion RMB, a 19.9% increase from the beginning of the fiscal year but a 20.3% decrease year-on-year [5] Long-term Strategy - The company is focused on long-term development, investing in brand building and launching new products, including collaborations with top designers and flagship store renovations [6]