Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock's performance in the near term [6]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 was 16.746 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.96% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.938 billion yuan, down 15.98% [1]. - The decline in duty-free sales has been narrowing, with a recovery in average transaction value, although shopping conversion rates remain a challenge. The duty-free shopping amount in Hainan for Q1 2025 was 11.31 billion yuan, down 11.4%, with the number of shoppers decreasing by 27.8% [2]. - The international passenger flow is recovering significantly, with Q1 2025 international passenger traffic at major airports showing increases of 20% to 26% compared to the previous year, suggesting a positive trend for duty-free sales [2][3]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.7 billion yuan, 5.2 billion yuan, and 5.7 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a recovery trend [3]. - The comprehensive gross margin for Q1 2025 was 33.0%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 11.6%, down 0.7 percentage points [2]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 56.474 billion yuan in 2024 to 72.772 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.25% [5].

Group 1 - The establishment of Hainan Free Trade Port is a significant strategic decision by the Chinese government to respond to global trade changes and enhance domestic consumption, especially in light of the U.S. imposing "reciprocal tariffs" [2][35] - The year 2025 marks a critical milestone for Hainan Free Trade Port as it aims to achieve "closure," allowing for a unique operational model where goods can flow freely between Hainan and international markets while being regulated for entry into mainland China [2][14] - Hainan is expected to become a "tax haven" due to four key policies: 1) Exemption from tariffs for products with over 30% value-added processing; 2) Zero tariffs on non-negative list goods post-closure; 3) A reduced corporate income tax rate of 15% for qualifying businesses; 4) A progressive personal income tax structure capped at 15% [2][28][30] Group 2 - Hainan is positioned as a dual circulation hub, leveraging its geographical advantages to attract global capital, particularly from foreign enterprises seeking access to the Chinese market [12][31] - The tourism sector is being developed to attract international visitors and promote high-end consumption, with initiatives like duty-free shopping and international medical tourism [41][46] - The report highlights the rapid growth of new enterprises in Hainan, with over 150,000 new companies established annually from 2020 to 2024, indicating a robust investment environment [33]