报告为华金证券 2026 年 1 月发布的消费行业深度报告，指出消费市场总量磨底但结构性亮点凸显，建议聚焦红利资产与情绪消费双主线，采取哑铃型配置 策略，同时看好海南封关带来的免税行业新机遇，行业评级为领先大市。 报告指出，2025 年 12 月社零增速受春节错期、大促退潮影响回落，消费大盘处于 L 型磨底阶段，但结构分化显著：服务消费（餐饮 + 2.2%）韧性优于实 物商品（+0.7%），体育娱乐、化妆品等具备情绪价值的赛道逆势高增，而家电、建筑装潢等地产后周期板块持续低迷，消费 K 型分化加剧，需求正从物质 满足向精神体验迁移。当前消费核心板块估值处于历史低位，食品饮料、白酒 PE-TTM 分位数分别至 7.5%、4.1%，安全边际与长期配置性价比显著。 行业层面，各板块呈现差异化特征：食品饮料板块成本红利释放，白酒批价筑底、区域酒企迎返乡红利，大众品现金流稳健具高股息价值；商贸零售线下必 选稳、可选弱，即时零售成线上核心增量；社会服务估值回归历史中枢，服务消费占比提升至 46.1%，具备长期增长动力；家电、纺织服饰制造端出口回 暖，家电板块估值低位凸显配置价值；轻工制造地产链估值筑底，文娱用品受益情绪消 ...

核心观点：春节文旅量稳价升，看好高端消费回暖 我们认为，2026 年消费最确定的增量来自服务，而文旅是服务消费中最具弹性的赛道，因此选择开设"数说文旅消费" 专题，重点跟踪文旅消费数据。 总览：2026 年春节消费延续元旦复苏趋势，量增平稳、价格改善亮眼。商务大数据显示假期前四天全国重点零售及餐 饮企业日均销售额同比+8.6%，显著高于 2025 年国庆中秋 2.7%及春节 5.4%增速。 出行：春节长假期驱动长途出行旺盛，长辈"反向过节"趋势明显，客流量增长亮眼。根据交通部数据，2026 年 2 月 16 日-2 月 21 日日均全社会跨区域人员流动 2.99 亿人次，同比 2025 年同期+11.05%，累计跨区域人员流动达 17.93 亿人次，同比+11.13%，长途出行市场维持高景气。分具体出行方式看，春节前六日铁路/公路/水路/民航累计分别较 2025 年同期+ 16.37%/+10.90%/+31.05%/+9.45%。 旅游：春节客流充裕，多景区供给侧优化，营收增长亮眼。张家界黄龙洞将非遗年俗与溶洞景观深度融合，三峡游轮 将传统年俗与三峡风光交融，打造沉浸式体验；黄山旅游借力有奖发票活动，将外部 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hainan aims to significantly boost consumption and accelerate institutional opening in 2023, focusing on high-quality business development and attracting investment [3][4]. Group 1: Business Development Strategies - Hainan will implement ten major strategies to promote high-quality business development, including enhancing high-level opening-up and tracking the effectiveness of closure policies [4]. - The province plans to actively align with international high-standard economic and trade rules [4]. - There will be a strong emphasis on consumer stimulation, including the implementation of a "zero tariff" policy for imported goods for local residents and the promotion of the duty-free shopping brand [4]. Group 2: Trade and Investment Initiatives - Hainan will foster trade innovation by establishing a "Shared Big Market · Export to China" platform and nurturing new foreign trade business models [4]. - The province aims to expand two-way investment opportunities by implementing pilot policies for opening up and accelerating the cultivation of landmark foreign investment projects [4]. - A series of international investment promotion activities will be conducted to enhance the effectiveness of investment attraction [4]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Market Development - Hainan will strengthen the modern market and circulation system, focusing on improving county-level consumption infrastructure and commercial circulation systems [4]. - The province will promote the high-quality development of the exhibition industry, including hosting the sixth Consumer Expo [4]. - Efforts will be made to optimize the business environment, enhance customs facilitation reforms, and improve port service guarantees [4].

Core Insights - The report highlights the overall positive trend in the A-share market, with various sectors such as finance, semiconductors, and aerospace showing strong performance, while some sectors like coal and pharmaceuticals lag behind [5][8][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic data and policy changes in guiding investment strategies, suggesting a balanced approach to portfolio allocation [7][11][33] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,139.90 with a slight increase of 0.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14,329.91, up by 0.09% [3] - The average price-to-earnings ratio for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext Index stands at 16.93 and 53.33 respectively, indicating a favorable long-term investment environment [7][12] International Market Performance - Major international indices such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 experienced declines of 0.67% and 0.45% respectively, while the Nikkei 225 saw a modest increase of 0.62% [4] Industry Analysis - The report discusses the media sector, noting a decrease in fund holdings in Q4 2025, with a significant focus on the gaming sub-sector, which remains highly favored among institutional investors [13][16] - The automotive industry is projected to achieve record production and sales in 2025, driven by policies encouraging vehicle upgrades and a strong demand for electric vehicles [31][33] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with strong fundamentals and high dividend yields, such as traditional engineering machinery and shipbuilding, while also highlighting opportunities in emerging technologies like humanoid robots and AI applications [17][18][22] - Specific companies to watch include major players in the gaming sector and those involved in AI applications, as they are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions and technological advancements [16][27]

记者从27日开幕的海南省第七届人民代表大会第五次会议上获悉，"十四五"期间，海南旅游业国际影响 力大幅提升，对本省GDP综合贡献率达33.4%。 海南省政府工作报告提出，2026年海南将开展海洋旅游年活动，拓展海洋、航天、热带雨林旅游消费； 完善海南环岛旅游公路和环热带雨林国家公园旅游公路配套设施，大力培育5A级旅游景区等。 （文章来源：新华网） 海南省政府工作报告显示，2025年，海南接待游客突破1亿人次。海南自贸港全岛封关至"满月"时，物 畅其流、人享其行、流量聚集等成效明显，免签入境游客、国际航行船舶进出、离岛免税销售额分别增 长64%、19.6%、46.8%。"十四五"期间，海南新增国家级旅游度假区2个、5A级景区1个，夜间文旅消 费集聚区6个、旅游休闲街区5个，优化西沙邮轮旅游航线，累计举办大型旅游、演艺、体育赛事活动 600场。 ...

省政协八届四次会议首场"委员通道"开启 传心声 献良策 话发展 1月26日，省政协八届四次会议"委员通道"(第一场)集体采访活动结束后，委员集体亮相合影。 海南日报 全媒体记者 袁琛 摄 海南日报全媒体记者 王才丰 "海南生命健康产业发展正当其时、大有可为。"省政协委员、海南苏生生物科技有限公司董事长、海南 省运动再生重点实验室主任曾胜表示，海南得天独厚的自然资源禀赋，为生命健康产业发展奠定了坚实基 础，海口国家高新区生物医药产业发展成果丰硕，博鳌乐城国际医疗旅游先行区的高端医疗服务全球知 名。"除了我们国家，东南亚、中东、中亚等地的游客也已经把海南作为重要的医疗消费目的地。"他认为， 海南发展生命健康产业，要把康养、医疗结合起来，实现产业提质增效。 产业发展，需要人才支撑。省政协委员、民进省委会副主委、海南省侨联副主席、海南软件职业技术学 院院长韩小雨真切感受到，越来越多的优质企业和新型业态正在加快布局海南，对技能人才提出旺盛的需 求。"建议海南在'十五五'时期把职业教育作为建设人才荟萃之岛和技术创新之岛的重要抓手，探索中高职本 硕博贯通的人才培养模式，创新职教'出海'和技能留学等具有自贸港特色的海南职教国 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed performance on January 19, with major indices fluctuating, while sectors like electric grid and precious metals remained strong, and other popular sectors continued to pull back [1] - The consumer sector saw a boost due to positive consumption data and policy support, particularly in retail and tourism, with notable performances from duty-free and airline stocks [1] Group 2: Consumer Data Insights - Recent consumer data highlights include a projected growth in service retail sales by 5.5% year-on-year for 2025, with significant increases in categories such as cultural and recreational services, telecommunications, and travel services [2] - In Hainan, the first month of duty-free sales from December 18, 2025, to January 18, 2026, reached 4.86 billion yuan, marking a 46.8% year-on-year increase, with shopping participation and item counts also showing substantial growth [2] Group 3: Airline Industry Performance - Airlines reported strong operational data for December 2025, with China Eastern Airlines showing a 4.93% increase in passenger capacity and a 7.61% rise in passenger turnover [3] - China Southern Airlines reported an 11.89% increase in passenger capacity and an 11.20% rise in passenger turnover for the same period, indicating a robust recovery in the aviation sector [3] Group 4: Policy Support for Consumption - The State Council's recent meeting emphasized the need to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption and to enhance the quality of service supply, aiming to stimulate consumer spending [4] - Analysts noted that the recent consumer data reflects a structural recovery, with growth shifting from traditional goods to services and duty-free markets, supported by improving airline and freight data [4] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The consumer sector is currently in a phase of "policy catalysis + seasonal drive," with expectations for recovery in essential and discretionary consumption sectors, particularly in areas like liquor, food and beverage, tourism, and airlines [5] - Investment strategies should focus on high-quality stocks that demonstrate supply innovation, policy support, or brand upgrades, as the market shifts towards structural and thematic opportunities [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Hainan Free Trade Port has successfully initiated its operations, leading to significant growth in trade and economic activities within the region [2] - Since the implementation of the customs closure on January 10, 2023, Hainan's foreign trade has seen a rapid increase, with total imports and exports reaching 21.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 19.6% [2] - The customs operation model characterized by "first-line" release and "second-line" control is functioning smoothly, benefiting key industries such as tourism, modern services, high-tech industries, and tropical agriculture [2] Group 2 - Hainan's GDP for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 568.66 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.9% [3] - Haikou leads the economic rankings with approximately 178.5 billion yuan, significantly ahead of the second and third cities, Danzhou and Sanya, which have GDPs of 74.2 billion yuan and 72 billion yuan respectively [3] - The competition among cities in Hainan is intensifying as the implementation of free trade policies expands, potentially altering the competitive landscape [3] Group 3 - Sanya's GDP in 2021 was 83.5 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 12.1%, while Danzhou's GDP was 39.5 billion yuan, showing a growth rate of 8.3% [9] - In 2022, Danzhou's GDP increased to 87.89 billion yuan, surpassing Sanya by nearly 3.2 billion yuan, making it the second-largest economy in Hainan [11] - The competition for the title of "second city" in Hainan is closely contested, with Danzhou focusing on port logistics and Sanya emphasizing tourism and agriculture [15][16] Group 4 - Wenchang has recently overtaken Qionghai, achieving a GDP of 39.2 billion yuan in 2024, primarily due to its development of the aerospace industry [18] - The establishment of the Wenchang International Aerospace City has attracted numerous aerospace-related projects, contributing to the local economy [19] - Wenchang's tourism sector has also benefited from its aerospace initiatives, with significant increases in visitor numbers and related economic activities [20] Group 5 - Chengmai has maintained a stable economic position, consistently ranking fourth with a GDP growth rate around 10% since 2020 [23] - The focus on "going global" through various industries, including gaming and cross-border e-commerce, positions Chengmai as a key player in Hainan's economic landscape [24] - The service sector, particularly in gaming and cross-border e-commerce, has become a major driver of economic growth in Hainan, contributing significantly to the province's GDP [25]

Market Overview - Global economic growth in 2025 showed unexpected resilience, driven by preemptive consumer spending, AI capital expenditure, and a strong stock market, leading to better-than-expected growth in Asia-Pacific emerging economies[4] - In 2026, growth drivers for Asia-Pacific emerging economies may weaken marginally, with a "front-low and back-stable" moderate slowdown expected due to high base effects[4] Stock Market Performance - A-shares opened strong in 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.38%, and nearly 4,200 stocks advancing, marking a 12-day winning streak[13] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 48,977.2, up 1.2%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively[6] - European markets strengthened, with the Euro Stoxx 600 index up 0.9% and the DAX 30 rising 1.3%[7] Commodity and Currency Movements - International oil prices increased, with NYMEX crude oil rising 1.74% to $58.32 per barrel, and Brent crude up 1.7% to $61.76[24] - Gold prices rose by 2.82% to $4,451.5 per ounce, while silver increased by 7.94% to $76.657 per ounce[24] Fixed Income Market - U.S. Treasury yields fell by 2-4 basis points due to an unexpected decline in the ISM manufacturing index, with the 10-year yield at 4.16%[27] - The primary market was active, with issuance exceeding $37 billion, about half of the expected issuance for the week[27] Sector Highlights - In the U.S. stock market, energy stocks led gains, with the energy index up 2.67%[7] - In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index rose slightly by 0.03%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.09%[9] Emerging Market Insights - The KOSPI index in South Korea surged 3.4% to 4,457 points, while the Nikkei 225 in Japan rose 3.0% to 51,832 points[19] - The S&P Mexico IPC index increased by 1.4%, closing at 65,014 points, with the materials sector leading gains[7]

Core Viewpoint - The tourism market is expected to see a strong start in 2026, with domestic travel during the New Year holiday showing growth in both the number of travelers and total spending compared to 2024 [1] Group 1: Domestic Travel Performance - The number of domestic travelers and total spending during the New Year holiday is projected to increase by approximately 5% and 6% respectively compared to the 2024 New Year holiday [1] - The overall performance of domestic tourism aligns with expectations, while inbound and outbound travel numbers have exceeded forecasts [1] Group 2: Duty-Free Sales - Duty-free sales data has outperformed expectations, with sales from offshore duty-free shops increasing by about 50% compared to the 2024 New Year holiday [1] - Continuous policy benefits are being released, prompting duty-free businesses to actively launch promotional activities [1] Group 3: Hotel and Scenic Area Performance - Hotel night stays have shown significant growth, although prices still have a gap compared to the 2024 New Year holiday [1] - Scenic areas have generally performed well, with prominent mountainous scenic spots being particularly outstanding [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming Spring Festival will have a nine-day holiday, which is expected to further enhance travel enthusiasm and market performance [1]