Fixed Income - The Campisi model dissects bond fund returns into four dimensions: income effect, government bond effect, spread effect, and selection effect, providing a systematic analysis of return sources [2][7][10] - The model's core advantage lies in high-frequency tracking and dynamic adaptability, capturing strategy adjustments and market changes [8][10] - Empirical data shows that top-performing bond funds in 2025 exhibit high duration exposure and convexity premium capabilities, while quality "fixed income+" funds enhance returns through dynamic adaptability of convertible bonds and equity factors [2][10] Non-Bank Financial Sector - The non-bank financial sector has underperformed compared to the overall equity market, with a year-to-date increase of 10.6% as of October 14, 2025, compared to 23.5% for the Wind All A Index [11][12] - Strong Q3 earnings expectations are anticipated to drive valuation growth, with significant increases in equity holdings for major insurers like China Life and Ping An, contributing positively to their investment income [12][13] - The sector may benefit from a shift in market preference towards lower valuation industries, with potential for improved performance in Q3 2025 [14][15] Health Insurance - The recent guidelines from the National Financial Regulatory Administration support the development of dividend-type long-term health insurance, which may lower actual costs for policyholders and encourage product innovation among insurers [3][16][17] - The health insurance market has seen a decline in new business value, but the new policies may stimulate sales through reduced prices and innovative product offerings [16][17] Beauty Industry - The Chinese cosmetics market is projected to reach 579.1 billion yuan in 2025, growing at a rate of 6.1%, with the contract manufacturing sector also expanding significantly [5][19] - Bawei Co., Ltd. has established a strong market presence and is implementing a "big client, big product" strategy, focusing on customized production and digital supply chain management [20][22] - The company reported a revenue of 371 million yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, and aims to enhance its market share through participation in international exhibitions and investment in high-growth sectors [20][22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-bank financial industry is "Positive" (first-time rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The non-bank financial sector has underperformed compared to the overall A-share market, with a year-to-date increase of 10.6% as of October 14, 2025, while the Wind All A Index has grown by 23.5%. However, the sector is expected to present investment opportunities driven by performance and changes in market preferences [4] - Strong third-quarter earnings expectations are anticipated to drive valuation growth, particularly in the insurance sector, where companies like New China Life Insurance are expected to see a net profit increase of 45%-65% year-on-year [5][6] - The report highlights a relative "mismatch" between performance and valuation, suggesting that the insurance companies' equity holdings have significantly increased, which will positively impact their investment income and net profit [5][6] Summary by Sections Insurance Sector - New China Life Insurance's net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 is expected to grow by 45%-65% compared to the same period in 2024, exceeding market expectations [6] - Major insurance companies have seen substantial growth in their equity holdings, with China Life, Ping An, and China Pacific's equity and equity fund holdings increasing significantly from June 2024 to June 2025 [6][9] - The PEV valuation points for China Life, Ping An, and China Pacific are at 45.2%, 56.3%, and 62.1% respectively, indicating potential for further valuation improvement supported by regulatory policies and market conditions [6][9] Brokerage Sector - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from an active equity capital market in Q3 2025, with a 213% year-on-year increase in average daily trading volume and a 56% increase in average margin financing balance [7] - The current PB ratio for the brokerage industry is approximately 1.42 times, which is at the 61% percentile since 2020, indicating a favorable valuation environment [7] Market Preference Changes - Increased global political and economic uncertainties may lead to a shift from high-valuation to lower-valuation sectors, with the financial industry potentially serving as a medium for such transitions [8] - Historical performance indicates that the non-bank financial sector has shown strong performance during periods of rising risk appetite, suggesting a potential rebound in the near future [8]