证券研究报告 证券分析师 陆韵婷 SAC：S1350525050002 luyunting@huayuanstock.com 沈晨 SAC：S1350525090002 shenchen@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 财报预期和市场风险偏好转换或带来投资机会 投资评级： 看好（首次） ——非银金融行业近期投资机会解析 非银金融 行业点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 10 月 16 日 投资要点： 2025 年以来中国权益资本市场表现良好，截至 10 月 14 日，wind 全 A 指数年初至 今增长 23.5%，但 SW 非银金融板块涨幅仅为 10.6%，在全部行业中排名较为靠后， 但我们认为近期在业绩驱动和市场偏好变化下，板块有望迎来投资机会。 驱动力 1：业绩和估值的相对"不匹配"：我们预计较为强劲的 3 季报预期将驱动 估值增长 联系人 保险板块：2025年10 月13日新华保险披露业绩预增公告，公告显示新华保险2025 年前三季度归母净利润预计将较 2024 年同期同比增长 45%-65%，这一明显强于 中报归母净利润增速 33.5%的数据大超市场预期，我们预计同业其他 ...

Core Insights - The forum discussed the differentiated survival strategies for securities asset management in the context of evolving market demands and regulatory changes [1][5][6] - Key industry leaders emphasized the importance of absolute returns and tailored investment products to meet client needs [3][14][16] Group 1: Market Trends and Insights - The market has seen significant institutional investment, particularly from insurance funds, with expectations for new opportunities in the second half of the year [2][26] - The equity market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by improving liquidity and economic fundamentals [21][26] - Four main investment themes are anticipated to drive market rotation: technology innovation led by AI, high-dividend stable assets, Chinese companies' overseas expansion, and domestic supply-demand reversals [21][22] Group 2: Differentiated Strategies - Securities asset management firms are shifting from a scale-oriented approach to one focused on investor interests, emphasizing research capabilities and long-term investment teams [10][12] - Companies are encouraged to develop unique product lines that provide absolute returns and meet specific investment goals, ensuring long-term viability [3][14] - The integration of quantitative and subjective investment strategies is seen as a way to enhance market understanding and improve investment outcomes [18][19] Group 3: Product Development and Client Focus - Firms are focusing on creating products that deliver value to clients, particularly in absolute return strategies and customized investment solutions [14][16] - The importance of a sales-driven approach in asset management is highlighted, with a need to educate clients on asset allocation and investment strategies [16][17] - The development of innovative financial products, such as ETFs and customized investment vehicles, is crucial for meeting diverse investor needs [12][13] Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is positioned for positive developments, with expectations of increased capital inflows and a favorable economic environment in the coming year [21][26] - Companies are advised to focus on sectors with reasonable valuations and strong competitive positions, particularly in technology and manufacturing [24][26] - The emphasis on long-term investment strategies and the cultivation of specialized research teams will be vital for future growth in the asset management industry [10][12]

Market Performance - The A-share market has reached multiple records, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3800 points for the first time since August 2015, and a total trading volume of 2.58 trillion yuan, marking the eighth consecutive day above 2 trillion yuan [2] - As of August 13, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3683.46 points, a new high since December 2021, with trading volume peaking at 2.28 trillion yuan [9][13] Investor Sentiment - The recovery of the market has reignited investor enthusiasm, with 14.56 million new accounts opened in the first seven months of the year, a year-on-year increase of 36.88% [3] - There is a noticeable increase in the number of new accounts and trading volume, indicating a shift of personal savings into the stock market [4][6] Brokerage Activity - Brokerages are experiencing a surge in activity, with many reporting significant increases in new account openings and trading volumes [6][9] - Some brokerages have lowered commission rates to attract new clients, with rates dropping to below 0.1% for new accounts [10] Financial Institutions' Performance - There is a divergence in performance among financial institutions, with brokerage firms thriving while banks and insurance outlets are seeing reduced activity [5][17] - Banks are experiencing a decline in client interest in stock market investments, with many clients still preferring low-risk products [18][19] Insurance Sector Impact - The insurance sector is facing challenges as clients shift their budgets from insurance products to stock investments, particularly in light of declining interest rates for insurance products [22][24] - Insurance agents report difficulties in maintaining sales momentum due to the attractiveness of stock market returns compared to insurance products [27][28]

Group 1 - The article introduces various common options strategies and highlights the backtesting results of a covered call strategy in the A-share market, showing significant excess returns during downtrends and sideways phases compared to holding ETFs [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange, Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and China Financial Futures Exchange provide various options based on broad indices and ETFs, with the trading volume of options gradually increasing, particularly the daily trading volume of the CSI 1000 options reaching around 1.9 billion [1] - Common options strategies can be categorized into single-leg strategies, spread strategies, hedging protection strategies, volatility strategies, and exotic strategies, with exotic strategies like Snowball and Vanilla gaining popularity in recent years, although options-related strategies are still relatively rare in domestic public funds [1] Group 2 - In overseas markets, covered call and hedging products are developing rapidly, with examples like RYLD and QYLD, which effectively reduce the net asset value volatility of their underlying indices [2] - The Russell 2000 index has been in a wide-ranging fluctuation since 2021, and RYLD's net asset value volatility is significantly lower than that of the index, providing a better holding experience for investors [2] - However, in trending upward markets, while covered call products can reduce volatility, their returns often lag behind the underlying index, as evidenced by QYLD's performance being significantly lower than that of the Nasdaq 100 index since 2021 [2] Group 3 - The backtesting results of the covered call strategy using existing 300ETF and 500ETF options indicate that the strategy significantly smooths the net asset value trajectory, with most performance metrics outperforming pure holding of the 300ETF, reducing the maximum drawdown from 42% to 22% [3] - During downtrends and sideways phases in the CSI 300, the covered call strategy clearly outperforms pure holding of ETFs, with better results observed in years with significant declines (2022, 2023) when using in-the-money options [3] - In years with smaller declines (2021), both in-the-money and out-of-the-money options can enhance returns, while in years with smaller gains (2025 to present), higher out-of-the-money options can boost returns; however, in years with larger gains (2020 and 2024), the covered call strategy underperforms direct ETF holdings [3]

Report Overview - Report Title: How to Construct Option Trading Strategies - Option Strategy Details (Part Two) [1] - Report Date: July 25, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Cheng Bingzhe, Zhang Shuai [2] Core Viewpoint - The real charm of options lies in constructing diverse trading strategies through combining different contracts, precisely expressing specific views on the market, and controlling risks and returns within a preset range [3][9]. - All option strategies are based on processing basic option positions to adapt to different market environments and manage risks. Understanding the option structure behind these strategies is the key to identifying their real risk and return sources [3][17]. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Summary by Directory 1. On - site Option Strategies - Single - leg trading, which involves directly buying or selling call or put options, is the cornerstone of complex trading. Buying call options is suitable for bullish markets with limited cost and unlimited theoretical returns, while buying put options is for bearish markets. Selling options aims to earn stable cash flow but bears the risk of exercise. The covered call strategy, which combines with the underlying asset, is a relatively stable return - enhancement strategy [10]. - When investors have more refined views on the market, they can use combination strategies. Directional combinations like bull spreads are suitable for moderately bullish markets, and bear spreads for moderately bearish markets. Butterfly spreads are used for markets with narrow - range fluctuations. Volatility strategies such as straddle combinations are for markets with significant but uncertain - direction fluctuations. Calendar spreads use the time - value difference between different - maturity contracts and are suitable for stable or moderately volatile markets [11][13] 2. Off - site Option Strategies - Off - site options are customized agreements between financial institutions and customers to meet special risk - management needs. The "Snowball" product is well - known. Investors can get high coupons in a moderately rising or volatile market but face principal - loss risks in a sharp - falling market. The Dynamic Coupon Note (DCN) is a more flexible "Snowball - like" product. It optimizes cash flow and meets regulatory requirements but still has risks, such as one - time principal loss at maturity and dependence on the futures discount environment [15][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the securities industry [3][38]. Core Viewpoints - The recent focus on Dynamic Coupon Notes (DCN) highlights the potential for high returns through structured products linked to underlying assets, supported by various market strategies [1][12]. - The development of over-the-counter derivatives is beneficial for brokers in exploring balance sheet operations and enhancing market stability [2][12]. - The report indicates a contraction in trading volumes and a decrease in the scale of stock holdings, with specific metrics showing a decline in IPOs and refinancing activities [3][37]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the increasing popularity of DCN products, which offer attractive returns through mechanisms such as Delta hedging and the use of margin trading in futures [1][12]. - It emphasizes the role of over-the-counter derivatives in reducing pressure on stock index futures and meeting diverse investor needs [2]. Market Performance - In May, the average daily trading volume for A-shares was 12,148 billion, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 1.7% but a year-on-year increase of 43.3% [3][37]. - The report notes a significant drop in IPO activities, with only 6 companies raising 34.564 billion, a 58.2% decrease from the previous month [3][37]. Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, Guolian Minsheng, and Dongfang Caifu are all rated as "Outperform the Market" with specific earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [4][57]. - CITIC Securities is projected to have an EPS of 1.39 in 2025, while Huatai Securities is expected to have an EPS of 1.59 [4][57]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading brokers like CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities, as well as recommending Dongfang Caifu and Guolian Minsheng for their strong market positions and operational integration [3][38].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the micro-cap stock market in China, highlighting the recent performance and outlook for micro-cap stocks, particularly in the context of supportive government policies and market liquidity conditions [1][3][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Supportive Policies for Micro-Cap Stocks**: Regulatory support for small and micro enterprises has been significant, including simplified review processes and relaxed payment tool restrictions, which have injected new capital and resources into the market [1][3]. 2. **Market Liquidity**: The Chinese financial market is experiencing a period of loose liquidity, with synchronized growth in social financing and M2, alongside comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cuts by the central bank, creating a favorable environment for micro-cap stocks [1][3]. 3. **Quantitative Predictions**: Quantitative models indicate that institutional holding concentration and the PB ratio for large and small caps are at historical lows, suggesting potential upside for micro-cap stocks [1][3]. 4. **Risk Appetite**: Market participants in the micro-cap sector exhibit a high risk appetite, with significant financing participation, although northbound capital participation remains low, indicating a unique market structure [1][3]. 5. **Calendar Effects**: There are notable calendar effects in micro-cap stocks, with historical patterns showing declines in April and January, and increases in May and November, which align with current market behavior [1][3]. 6. **Crowding Signals**: Current crowding signals are low, but there is a need to monitor potential pullbacks due to leveraged funds and emotional volatility [1][4]. Future Risks 1. **Diminishing Support Effects**: While policies supporting small and micro enterprises are expected to underpin liquidity, the benefits from merger and acquisition activities may diminish over time, and the market has already priced in some expectations [5]. 2. **Market Behavior Post-May**: Historically, the strength of the market tends to recede after May, and a broad rally post-mid-year is unlikely to repeat [5]. 3. **Volatility and Crowding**: There is a need to remain vigilant regarding potential volatility and crowding conditions, as these could lead to significant market fluctuations [5]. Institutional Investor Perspectives - Institutional investors are cautious about allocating to micro-cap stocks at current high levels, preferring to wait for more favorable conditions. The focus is on high-certainty sectors such as specialized and innovative enterprises [6]. Important Data Indicators 1. **Financing Participation**: Among 400 micro-cap stocks, 109 have financing participation above 3%, and 39 exceed 5% [7]. 2. **Northbound Capital Participation**: Only 7 stocks meet the requirements for northbound trading, with participation ratios below 0.1% [7]. 3. **Historical Low Concentration**: Institutional holding concentration and the PB ratio for large and small caps are at historical lows, significantly impacting the current market environment [7]. Extreme Discount Rates in Small-Cap Stocks - The discount rates for small-cap stocks have reached historical extremes due to increased hedging demand from quantitative neutral strategies, policy restrictions limiting short-selling mechanisms, and reduced hedging demand from structured products [2][8][9]. Relationship Between DCN Products and Discount Rates - DCN products are seen to weaken the discount rates in small-cap stocks by increasing the market's long positions, thus alleviating extreme discount phenomena [10][15]. Changes in the Small-Cap Stock Market Since Early 2024 - The small-cap stock market has seen a significant decline in structured product demand, particularly from snowball products, while quantitative neutral strategies have increased, leading to heightened market pressure [11]. Differences Between Snowball and DCN Products - Snowball products have a daily observation mechanism that can trigger selling pressure, while DCN products lack this mechanism, providing a more stable hedging approach and reducing potential market volatility [12][15]. Current Scale of Structured Products - The estimated scale of snowball products is around 1 trillion, having peaked at 2-2.5 trillion in early 2024, indicating a significant reduction in market impact compared to earlier levels [13][14].