上 市 公 司 美容护理 2025 年 10 月 29 日 芭薇股份 (920123) ——Q3 毛利率继续承压，储备优质新客待 26 年起量 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（下调） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 10 月 28 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 17.44 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 35.39/13.08 | | 市净率 | 4.8 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 1.72 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 1,110 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,988.22/13,430.10 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | | 3.64 | | 资产负债率% | | 53.41 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | | 112/64 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 10-28 11-28 12-28 01-28 02-28 03-31 0 ...

Core Viewpoint - Qingsong Co. reported a significant turnaround in its financial performance for the first three quarters of 2025, achieving a revenue of 1.553 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%, and a net profit of 111 million yuan, reflecting a substantial growth of 246.98% [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - The revenue for Qingsong Co. in the first three quarters of 2025 was 1.553 billion yuan, compared to 1.387 billion yuan in the same period of 2024, marking a 12% increase [3][5]. - The net profit reached 111 million yuan, a significant increase from 31.92 million yuan in the previous year, indicating a growth rate of 246.98% [3][4]. - This is the first time in five years that Qingsong Co. has achieved a "double increase" in both revenue and net profit for the first three quarters [5][6]. Operational Efficiency - The company has shown improved operational efficiency, as evidenced by the significant increase in net profit compared to revenue growth, indicating enhanced profitability [1][5]. - Qingsong Co. reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 139 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.11%, demonstrating improved cash recovery capabilities [5][10]. Asset Management - Qingsong Co. successfully disposed of a 148-acre industrial park project, generating a cash inflow of 163 million yuan, which contributed approximately 31.25 million yuan to the net profit for the first three quarters [6][10]. - The disposal of this asset has improved the company's cash flow and reduced future capital expenditure pressures, allowing it to focus more on its core cosmetics business [10][11]. Strategic Focus - The company’s subsidiary, Norsbel, has maintained a strong market position, achieving double-digit revenue growth despite a challenging macroeconomic environment [5][12]. - Norsbel's strategy emphasizes focusing on core customers and high-value products, which has led to a 16.04% increase in R&D expenses, outpacing revenue growth [12][14]. - Qingsong Co. aims to enhance its core competitiveness in the cosmetics sector through continuous improvements in product development, market expansion, cost control, and structural optimization [12][16].

Fixed Income - The Campisi model dissects bond fund returns into four dimensions: income effect, government bond effect, spread effect, and selection effect, providing a systematic analysis of return sources [2][7][10] - The model's core advantage lies in high-frequency tracking and dynamic adaptability, capturing strategy adjustments and market changes [8][10] - Empirical data shows that top-performing bond funds in 2025 exhibit high duration exposure and convexity premium capabilities, while quality "fixed income+" funds enhance returns through dynamic adaptability of convertible bonds and equity factors [2][10] Non-Bank Financial Sector - The non-bank financial sector has underperformed compared to the overall equity market, with a year-to-date increase of 10.6% as of October 14, 2025, compared to 23.5% for the Wind All A Index [11][12] - Strong Q3 earnings expectations are anticipated to drive valuation growth, with significant increases in equity holdings for major insurers like China Life and Ping An, contributing positively to their investment income [12][13] - The sector may benefit from a shift in market preference towards lower valuation industries, with potential for improved performance in Q3 2025 [14][15] Health Insurance - The recent guidelines from the National Financial Regulatory Administration support the development of dividend-type long-term health insurance, which may lower actual costs for policyholders and encourage product innovation among insurers [3][16][17] - The health insurance market has seen a decline in new business value, but the new policies may stimulate sales through reduced prices and innovative product offerings [16][17] Beauty Industry - The Chinese cosmetics market is projected to reach 579.1 billion yuan in 2025, growing at a rate of 6.1%, with the contract manufacturing sector also expanding significantly [5][19] - Bawei Co., Ltd. has established a strong market presence and is implementing a "big client, big product" strategy, focusing on customized production and digital supply chain management [20][22] - The company reported a revenue of 371 million yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, and aims to enhance its market share through participation in international exhibitions and investment in high-growth sectors [20][22]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in its packaging and printing business in the first half of the year, while the cosmetics segment's revenue share did not increase further, and gross margins remained stable [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The packaging and printing business experienced substantial year-on-year revenue growth [1] - The cosmetics business's contribution to total revenue did not see further improvement [1] - Gross margin levels were maintained without significant fluctuations [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its cosmetics OEM business by executing a defined business development strategy and focusing on building strategic partnerships with key clients, particularly ODM customers [1] - A rolling forecast system and real-time order shipment monitoring system were established to improve business precision and service quality [1] Group 3: Product Development - The company has identified key product development strategies based on market research and competitive analysis, focusing on skincare, wax-based, and powder categories [1] - New flagship products such as water light cream, multi-use potato mud cream, and blush cream were successfully developed [1] Group 4: Operational Strategy - The company's main operational focus is on the principles of "increasing revenue" and "cost-saving" to achieve continuous business expansion and profit improvement [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The full implementation of the cosmetic safety assessment system is expected to enhance the company's market share [1] - The new assessment system increases the product registration cycle and costs, which may accelerate industry consolidation [7] - The company is proactively establishing testing centers and enhancing raw material R&D to strengthen its supply chain [7] - The company is expected to see significant growth in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with projected net profits of 69 million, 91 million, and 115 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][11] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 1,009 million in 2025 to 1,230 million in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.4% [6][11] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 69 million in 2025 to 115 million in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 26.8% in 2027 [6][11] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.62 in 2025 to 1.03 in 2027 [6][11] - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 31, 24, and 19 respectively [7] Industry Context - The full safety assessment system, implemented on May 1, 2025, has led to a significant decline in the number of cosmetic registrations, with a 30.5% decrease in ordinary cosmetic filings and a 46.7% drop in special cosmetic registrations from May to July 2025 [4] - The new assessment requirements are expected to raise the bar for contract manufacturers in terms of raw material management, R&D capabilities, and supply chain collaboration [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 695 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 48.3%, and a net profit of 45 million yuan, up 10.3% year-on-year, which met expectations [7] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.0 yuan per share (including tax) for 2024, with a distribution ratio of 56.71% [7] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 162 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.1%, and a net profit of 9 million yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year, slightly below expectations [7] - The company is focusing on a major client strategy and has formed partnerships with emerging brands to drive revenue growth, with domestic revenue reaching 642 million yuan in 2024, a 40.5% increase [7] - The company is enhancing its raw material research and investment to improve integrated capabilities and increase the value-added of its OEM services [7] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of 69 million yuan, 91 million yuan, and 115 million yuan respectively [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to reach 1,009 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 45.2% [6] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 26.4% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 6.5% [6] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 15.6% in 2025 [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.81 yuan in 2025 [6]