美联储穆萨莱姆周五表示，鉴于通胀率一直高于美联储设定的2%的目标水平，他不太愿意支持进一步 的降息举措。穆萨莱姆表示，他赞同美联储本周维持利率不变的决定，并认为在3.5%至3.75%的利率水 平下，美联储的目标利率已不再高到足以对经济造成显著的抑制作用。持续的价格上涨应当会阻止美联 储为了支持经济而降低利率。穆萨莱姆表示："鉴于通胀率高于目标水平，且经济前景面临的风险大致 平衡，我认为目前不宜将利率降至宽松区间。"穆萨莱姆还指出，试图通过降低美联储控制的短期利率 来缓解劳动力市场压力可能会适得其反。他称，这种举措可能会引发对未来通胀的担忧，并推高长期利 率，而长期利率是决定房贷成本和企业借贷成本的重要因素。 ...

美联储官员在去年三次降息后，预计将于本周三维持短期利率不变。面对白宫要求进一步降低借贷成本 的巨大压力，美联储选择暂不行动，静待经济走势明朗。 去年4月，唐纳德・特朗普总统推出全面关税政策后，美国就业增长几近停滞。美联储彼时降息，意在 提振经济、防止就业市场进一步恶化。目前已有迹象显示，失业率趋于稳定，经济或迎来回暖，而通胀 率仍顽固地高于美联储2%的目标值。多重趋势之下，维持当前利率成为合理选择。 美联储主席杰罗姆・鲍威尔本周三的新闻发布会上，大概率会回应一个核心问题：美联储将维持当前利 率多久。利率制定委员会内部仍存在分歧：一方官员认为，通胀回落前不应继续降息；另一方则主张进 一步降息，为就业市场提供更多支撑。 去年12月，该委员会19名参会者中，仅有12人支持今年至少再降息一次。多数经济学家预测，美联储今 年将降息两次，最有可能在6月或之后的议息会议上落地。 美联储本周召开议息会议，全程笼罩在特朗普政府施加的前所未有的压力之下。1月11日，鲍威尔称， 司法部就其在国会作证时涉及25亿美元建筑翻新项目的相关内容启动刑事调查，并向美联储送达了传 票。鲍威尔在一份措辞罕见直白的视频声明中表示，这些传票只是借口 ...

Core Viewpoint - A new wave of interest rate cuts is emerging globally following the Federal Reserve's decision to lower rates by 25 basis points, with several central banks in the Middle East and Canada also announcing similar cuts [1][3][5]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but there is significant uncertainty regarding future rate cuts, particularly for December [1][9]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that there are notable divisions among officials regarding the December meeting, suggesting that another rate cut is not guaranteed [1][9]. Global Central Bank Responses - Following the Fed's decision, the central banks of the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia have all announced a 25 basis point reduction in their benchmark rates [3][4][5]. - The Bank of Canada also reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, marking the second consecutive meeting with a rate cut, as the Canadian economy faced challenges due to U.S. tariffs [5]. Economic Context - The Canadian economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter, raising concerns about the potential for continued economic difficulties in the third quarter [5]. - The Bank of Canada highlighted that the economy is undergoing a difficult transition, with trade conflicts causing structural damage that limits the effectiveness of monetary policy [5][6]. Market Expectations - As of October 30, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December has decreased to 67.8%, with a 32.2% chance of maintaining the current rate [1][10]. - Prior to Powell's comments, the probability of a December rate cut was as high as 95.3%, indicating a significant shift in market expectations [10]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the Fed's future monetary policy path is fraught with uncertainty, particularly in light of missing economic data and internal divisions among officials [9][10]. - Some experts believe that the outlook for a December rate cut is more nuanced than the market currently perceives, citing strong consumer spending and economic growth as potential reasons to slow the pace of rate cuts [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the second time this year, but Chairman Jay Powell indicated that another cut in December is not guaranteed, leading to mixed market reactions [2][3][4]. Federal Reserve Actions - The Fed lowered the fed funds rate target to a range of 3.75% to 4%, marking the first time it has been below 4% since late 2022 [4]. - The Fed announced the end of its balance sheet runoff, concluding reductions in Treasury and agency securities on December 1 [5]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's comments, the odds of the Fed maintaining rates steady in December surged to 40% from below 10%, while the odds of a cut decreased to 55% and a 5% chance of a rate hike emerged [4]. - The S&P 500 finished flat, the Nasdaq rose by 0.6%, and the Dow fell by 0.2% after initial declines [6]. - Treasury yields increased, with the 2-year yield rising by 11 basis points to 3.61% and the 10-year yield increasing by 9 basis points to 4.07% [6]. Economic Outlook - The Fed described economic growth as "expanding at a moderate pace," a shift from previous language emphasizing moderation, while acknowledging slowed job gains and rising inflation [5]. - Powell noted that there are differing views within the Committee regarding future economic conditions, suggesting a cautious approach moving forward [3].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the upcoming decision, with market focus on the potential for two rate cuts this year [1][3][5] - Recent comments from Fed officials indicate reluctance to lower rates due to concerns over tariffs potentially reigniting inflation, posing a dual threat to their dual mandate of low inflation and high employment [3][5] - The upcoming dot plot from the Fed will provide insights into officials' views on rate cuts, with the last plot indicating a consensus for two cuts this year [7] Group 2 - Economic data, including inflation and employment figures, will significantly influence the Fed's future actions, with a stable unemployment rate allowing for prolonged maintenance of current rates [3][5] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is impacting the Fed's policy outlook, as rising oil prices could hinder global economic stability and complicate rate cut plans [5][7] - Market reactions will depend on the Fed's signals; a reinforced outlook for rate cuts could support the stock market, while a strong stance against cuts may hinder recovery [9]