证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20260201 转债踏空欠配资金配置窗口渐近 2026 年 02 月 01 日 [关键词： Table_Tag#稀缺资产 ] 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 陈伯铭 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《债市窄幅震荡中等待新催化》 2026-02-01 《绿色债券周度数据跟踪（20260126- 20260130）》 2026-01-31 东吴证券研究所 1 / 16 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Summary] ◼ 本周（0126－0130）大类资产出现显著波动，美股、贵金属、美 债收益率短端显著调整，美元小幅修复，这来自于围绕美联储下 一任主席人选前期过度"悲观"预期的一种反向修正，沃什拥有 偏鹰的历史，市场由此认为联储 26 年降息路径或维持克制。整 体我们仍维持前期观点，在宏观大叙事的交集方向上，低利率的 环境既是必要的也将是有效的，但正如我们前期所述，联储货币 政策的任何预期调整都将 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.28% on December 17, reaching 479.97 points, indicating a positive market sentiment in the convertible bond sector [1][2]. Summary by Categories Market Performance - The index's increase was driven by notable gains in several convertible bonds, with Jia Mei Convertible Bond leading the rise at 20.00%, followed by Da Zhong Convertible Bond at 7.23%, Huan Xu Convertible Bond at 7.06%, Li Qun Convertible Bond at 3.87%, and Tian Run Convertible Bond at 3.22% [1][2]. Declining Bonds - Conversely, several convertible bonds experienced declines, with Neng Hui Convertible Bond dropping by 7.68%, Hua An Convertible Bond by 4.00%, Zai 22 Convertible Bond by 3.02%, Hong Tu Convertible Bond by 1.76%, and Meng Sheng Convertible Bond by 1.58% [1][2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the Fed's interest rate cut was confirmed this week, with the yield curve steepening rapidly. The long - end has high volatility and strong gaming attributes, while the short - end has relatively strong supply and demand. The long - end is expected to fluctuate between 4 - 4.5%, and the short - end is likely to decline and hard to rise. Gold is still favored [2][40]. - In the equity market, AI computing power showed a tendency to spread to other technology sectors. The market is still considered a "slow bull" and short - term is more structural. In the convertible bond market, high valuations are a psychological obstacle. It is recommended to invest in the mid - low - price range for technology diffusion, more left - side cycle directions, or alpha - focused gaming points [2][41]. - The top ten high - rating, mid - low - price convertible bonds with the greatest potential for parity premium rate repair next week are Hope Convertible Bond, Jinneng Convertible Bond, Liqun Convertible Bond, Liuyao Convertible Bond, Industrial Convertible Bond, Energy - saving Convertible Bond, Jiayue Convertible Bond, Energy - chemical Convertible Bond, Qingnong Convertible Bond, and Jiangong Convertible Bond [2][41]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Market Review 1.1 Equity Market: Overall Decline with Most Industries Falling - This week (September 15 - 19), the equity market was significantly differentiated and overall declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.30%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.14%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.34%, and the CSI 300 fell 0.44%. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased by about 196.154 billion yuan to 2.494834 trillion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 8.53% [7][9]. - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 12 industries rose, with 5 industries rising more than 2%. Coal, power equipment, electronics, automobiles, and machinery had the highest increases [14]. 1.2 Convertible Bond Market: Overall Decline with Most Industries Falling - The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 1.55%. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 3 industries rose, with 1 industry rising more than 2%. Communication, national defense and military industry, and automobiles had the highest increases [15]. - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 9.0635 billion yuan, a significant increase of 364.4 million yuan, a week - on - week change of 4.19%. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of trading volume were Jingxing Convertible Bond, Jing 23 Convertible Bond, etc. [15]. - About 18.29% of individual convertible bonds rose, with 6.48% rising between 0 - 1% and 9.26% rising more than 2% [15]. - The overall market conversion premium rate increased. The average daily conversion premium rate this week was 37.17%, up 1.07 pcts from last week. There were different changes in different price and parity intervals [23]. 1.3 Comparison of Stock and Bond Market Sentiments - This week, the weighted average and median weekly returns of convertible bonds and underlying stocks were negative, and the convertible bonds had a larger weekly decline. The trading volume of both markets increased significantly, with the convertible bond trading volume having a larger increase but a lower percentile level [37]. - About 18.88% of convertible bonds rose, and about 31.65% of underlying stocks rose. About 43.85% of convertible bonds had a higher return than the underlying stocks. Overall, the trading sentiment in the underlying stock market was better this week [37]. 2. Outlook and Investment Strategy - Overseas, the Fed's interest rate cut was confirmed. The long - end has high volatility and strong gaming attributes, while the short - end has relatively strong supply and demand. The long - end is expected to fluctuate between 4 - 4.5%, and the short - end is likely to decline and hard to rise. Gold is still favored [2][40]. - In the equity market, AI computing power showed a tendency to spread to other technology sectors. The market is still considered a "slow bull" and short - term is more structural. In the convertible bond market, high valuations are a psychological obstacle. It is recommended to invest in the mid - low - price range for technology diffusion, more left - side cycle directions, or alpha - focused gaming points [2][41]. - The top ten high - rating, mid - low - price convertible bonds with the greatest potential for parity premium rate repair next week are Hope Convertible Bond, Jinneng Convertible Bond, Liqun Convertible Bond, Liuyao Convertible Bond, Industrial Convertible Bond, Energy - saving Convertible Bond, Jiayue Convertible Bond, Energy - chemical Convertible Bond, Qingnong Convertible Bond, and Jiangong Convertible Bond [2][41].

Core Viewpoint - The company, LQ Group, is facing significant external pressures in the retail market, with performance improvement challenges due to weak consumer sentiment and intense competition, particularly in the East China region [2][4][5] Company Overview - LQ Group is a leading retail enterprise in Shandong Province, with a strong brand presence and market competitiveness in the Shandong Peninsula retail market [1][2] - The company has diversified its operations, forming a comprehensive business model that includes retail chain operations, logistics supply chain, and food processing [1][8] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 decreased by 3.39% and 5.14% year-on-year, respectively, primarily due to reduced consumer willingness to spend and store closures [7][19] - The gross profit margin for the same periods was 29.98%, 32.68%, 32.89%, and 29.97%, indicating fluctuations in profitability [7][19] Business Operations - The company operates a multi-format retail business, including comprehensive shopping malls, shopping centers, supermarkets, convenience stores, and online platforms [8][17] - LQ Group has established a logistics supply chain that supports its retail operations and has expanded its external sales business [14][15] Market Challenges - The retail industry is experiencing fierce competition, with significant pressure on physical retail formats, while online retail continues to grow [5][6] - The company is adjusting its store operations, having closed 12 stores while opening only one new store during the tracking period [10][12] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain stable credit quality in the coming months, with potential for upgrades if market conditions improve and operational performance enhances [2][3] - The company is focusing on optimizing its retail operations and enhancing customer experience to drive sales growth [12][18]

Core Viewpoint - The legal opinion issued by King & Wood Mallesons (KWM) confirms that the differentiated dividend distribution plan proposed by Lihua Commercial Group Co., Ltd. complies with relevant laws and regulations, ensuring no harm to the interests of the company and its shareholders [1][8]. Group 1: Differentiated Dividend Distribution - The differentiated dividend distribution is based on the company's 2024 profit distribution plan, proposing a cash dividend of RMB 0.02 per share (tax included) for all shareholders [6][7]. - The total number of shares eligible for distribution is 851,373,031 shares, after excluding 62,559,912 shares held in the repurchase account, which do not participate in profit distribution [7][8]. - The company plans to maintain the per-share distribution ratio even if there are changes in total share capital due to convertible bonds or share repurchases [6][7]. Group 2: Share Repurchase Plans - The company has approved a share repurchase plan with a budget ranging from RMB 100 million to RMB 200 million for the second phase and from RMB 150 million to RMB 300 million for the third phase, both to be executed within 12 months from the board's approval [3][4]. - As of May 28, 2025, a total of 32,239,009 shares have been repurchased under the second phase, and 3,084 shares have been converted into shares held by convertible bondholders [5][6]. Group 3: Legal Compliance and Verification - KWM has conducted thorough verification and confirmed that the facts and documents provided by the company are complete and accurate, ensuring the legality of the conclusions drawn in the legal opinion [2][8]. - The legal opinion is intended solely for the purpose of the differentiated dividend distribution and cannot be used for any other purpose [3][8].

Group 1 - The company will stop the conversion of its convertible bonds during the period from June 12, 2025, to the equity distribution registration date [1][3] - The equity distribution plan includes a cash dividend of 0.02 yuan per share (tax included) to all shareholders based on the total share capital minus the shares held in the company's repurchase account [1][2] - The total share capital of the company is 913,932,943 shares, with 62,559,912 shares held in the repurchase account, meaning no bonus shares will be distributed [2] Group 2 - The equity distribution plan was approved at the annual general meeting held on May 16, 2025, and further details were disclosed on May 17, 2025 [2] - The company will announce the implementation of the equity distribution and the adjustment of the convertible bond conversion price on June 13, 2025 [2][3] - Holders of convertible bonds wishing to enjoy the equity distribution must convert their bonds before June 11, 2025 [3]

| 回购方案首次披露日 | 2024/10/10 | | --- | --- | | 回购方案实施期限 | 待董事会审议通过后 个月 12 | | 预计回购金额 | 15,000 万元~30,000 万元 | | 回购用途 | □减少注册资本 □用于员工持股计划或股权激励 | | | √用于转换公司可转债 | | | □为维护公司价值及股东权益 | | 累计已回购股数 | 27,716,887 股 | | 累计已回购股数占总股本比例 | 3.03% | | 累计已回购金额 | 元 140,024,044.71 | | 实际回购价格区间 | 4.90 元/股~5.15 元/股 | 一、 回购股份的基本情况 利群商业集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2024 年 10 月 9 日召开第 九届董事会第二十三次会议，审议通过了《关于 2024 年第三期以集中竞价交易方 式回购股份方案的议案》。公司拟使用自有资金或自筹资金不低于人民币 15,000 万元且不超过 30,000 万元，以集中竞价交易方式进行股份回购，回购股份的价格 不超过 8.00 元/股，回购的股份将用于转换公司可转债。 具 体 内 容 详 见 ...