Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has announced the cancellation of the anti-discrimination tariff on Canadian canola meal, effective from March 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, following a preliminary agreement between China and Canada on trade issues [16][25]. Group 1: Tariff Adjustments - The anti-discrimination tariff on canola meal (HS codes 23064100 and 23064900) will be completely removed, which was previously set at 100% [3][16]. - The adjustment is part of a broader arrangement where Canada has also announced changes to tariffs on steel and aluminum products imported from China [16]. Group 2: Market Impact - The average export price of Canadian canola meal has rebounded to approximately $308-$310 per ton, with estimated import costs for canola meal in China ranging from 2160 to 2200 RMB per ton after accounting for customs fees [4][16]. - The cancellation of the tariff is expected to lead to the gradual release of canola meal stocks held in bonded warehouses in China, which may exert short-term pressure on the market [6][18]. Group 3: Related Developments - The final ruling on anti-dumping measures for canola seeds is still pending, with expectations that the import tariff will be kept below 15% [8][20]. - Unlike canola meal, the anti-discrimination tariff on Canadian canola oil remains in place at 100%, preventing normal exports to China [9][23]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The overall impact of the tariff cancellation is seen as bearish for canola meal trade flows, but rising external prices may offset this effect, suggesting caution against short-selling [12][25].

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures are experiencing a strong oscillation, with the main contract reaching a peak of 8866.00 yuan and currently trading at 8772.00 yuan, reflecting a 1.32% increase [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Zhengxin Futures indicates that palm oil continues its oscillating strong trend, supported by a decrease in production and an increase in exports as reported in the MPOB December report, which noted a month-end inventory of 3.05 million tons [2]. - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures anticipates a short-term strengthening of palm oil prices, citing macroeconomic factors such as the investigation into the Federal Reserve Chairman and geopolitical tensions in Iran, which have contributed to rising oil prices [3]. - Hualian Futures expects domestic oilseeds to maintain a strong oscillating trend, with signs of improvement in palm oil exports in January and potential favorable developments regarding Canadian canola tariffs [3]. Group 2: Inventory and Production Insights - The MPOB report indicates that Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory for December was 3.05 million tons, slightly above expectations, but the market has absorbed this bearish news [3]. - High-frequency data shows a reduction in Malaysian palm oil production and an increase in demand in early January, which is expected to improve supply-demand dynamics and support price recovery [3].