证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 03 月 04 日 [Table_Title] PMI 再回落，什么信号 3 月 4日， 统计局发布 2月 PMI，制造业 PMI 49.0%，前值 49.3%；非制造业 PMI 49.5%，前值 49.4%。 关注以下几个方面： 第一，制造业 PMI 回落，部分受到春节因素拖累。2 月制造业 PMI 回落 0.3 个百分点至 49.0%，连续第二 个月低于荣枯线。组成制造业 PMI 的五个分项中，主要是生产、新订单明显回落，生产下降 1.0 个百分点至 49.6%，新订单回落 0.6 个百分点至 48.6%，两者分别拖累 PMI 0.25、0.18 个百分点。 制造业回落，很大程度上是春节因素。PMI 已通过季调方式剔除季节性规律，不过农历春节的早晚，对 2 月到 3 月 PMI 仍有影响，难以剔除。参考春节日期类似的年份，2015（2 月 19 日）、2018（2 月 16 日）、2021 （2 月 12 日），制造业生产分项 2 月相对 1 月回落 0.3 到 2.8 个百分点（平均-1.57）；新订单介于-1.6 到+0.2 个 百分 ...

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures are experiencing a strong oscillation, with the main contract reaching a peak of 8866.00 yuan and currently trading at 8772.00 yuan, reflecting a 1.32% increase [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Zhengxin Futures indicates that palm oil continues its oscillating strong trend, supported by a decrease in production and an increase in exports as reported in the MPOB December report, which noted a month-end inventory of 3.05 million tons [2]. - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures anticipates a short-term strengthening of palm oil prices, citing macroeconomic factors such as the investigation into the Federal Reserve Chairman and geopolitical tensions in Iran, which have contributed to rising oil prices [3]. - Hualian Futures expects domestic oilseeds to maintain a strong oscillating trend, with signs of improvement in palm oil exports in January and potential favorable developments regarding Canadian canola tariffs [3]. Group 2: Inventory and Production Insights - The MPOB report indicates that Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory for December was 3.05 million tons, slightly above expectations, but the market has absorbed this bearish news [3]. - High-frequency data shows a reduction in Malaysian palm oil production and an increase in demand in early January, which is expected to improve supply-demand dynamics and support price recovery [3].