热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：CFC商品策略研究 作者 | 中信建投期货 研究发展部 石丽红 研究助理涂标 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可〔2011〕1461 号 本报告完成时间 | 2026年2月27日 重要提示：本报告观点和信息仅供符合证监会适当性管理规定的期货交易者参考。因本平台暂时无法设 置访问限制，若您并非符合规定的交易者，为控制交易风险，请勿点击查看或使用本报告任何信息。对 由此给您造成的不便表示诚挚歉意，感谢您的理解与配合！ 2025年3月8日，商务部（以下称调查机关）发布2025年第11号公告，公布就加拿大对华相关限制性措施 进行反歧视调查的裁定并采取反歧视措施。2026年2月27日，商务部发布公告称调整相关措施。 保税仓留置的"加菜粕"库存或逐步释放 本次加菜粕"反歧视"关税取消可能带来连锁反应。在2025年4-9月期间，尽管中国已经对加拿大菜粕实 施100%反歧视关税，但仍有部分菜粕进口合同得到执行，放置在中国保税仓当中，未能流入内地。本 次关税取消后，预计前期保税仓加菜粕库存或逐步释放流入市场，短期内带来一定压力。另外，海南保 税区加工的加菜粕或 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the easing of tensions in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine has led to a decline in international crude oil prices, weakening support for vegetable oils. Coupled with profit - taking by funds after the previous sharp rise, the risk of a short - term high - level correction in domestic oils has increased. However, the strong fundamentals of soybean and palm oils remain unchanged, so the correction range is expected to be limited. It is recommended to wait for the correction and then go long. Among them, palm oil and soybean oil are expected to be relatively stronger, while rapeseed oil will be relatively weaker [1][19]. - In the long - term, after the Spring Festival, the supply - demand of domestic and international oils will gradually ease, leading to a correction in domestic oils. But with the strong expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and positive macro - situation, along with potential positive factors such as Indonesia's production reduction risk and the US biodiesel policy, the general direction of oils is upward. After the correction caused by the increase in Malaysian palm oil production and the large arrival of Brazilian soybeans, a bullish approach should still be taken [2][20]. 3. Summary by Variety Palm Oil - Short - term: The strong fundamentals of palm oil will last until February, and with the spill - over effect of US biodiesel policies, the correction range of spot and futures prices is limited. After the emotional decline, there is still upward momentum. However, the relatively high inventory levels in Malaysia and China will limit its further upward space. For example, in January 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased while exports increased, and the inventory is expected to decline further in February [5]. - Long - term: Starting from March, Malaysian palm oil production may rebound, while consumption demand will weaken, which may lead to a price correction. But considering the positive domestic macro - situation in 2026, low inventory and potential production reduction in Indonesia, and the possibility of implementing the B50 biodiesel plan, the correction range is expected to be limited, and a long - term bullish view is maintained [6]. Soybean Oil - Short - term: Similar to palm oil, soybean oil is supported by both domestic and foreign positive factors, and the correction is expected to be limited. Positive factors include strong US soybean demand, potential US biodiesel policies, the early - stage harvest of Brazilian soybeans in the 25/26 season, and the drought in Argentina. However, the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the risk of the US biodiesel policy falling short of expectations will limit its upward space [12]. - Long - term: After the Spring Festival, the large arrival of Brazilian soybeans and the easing of domestic soybean supply - demand will put pressure on US soybean and domestic soybean oil prices. In the third quarter, soybean oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with attention on the purchase progress of Brazilian soybeans, the sowing and growth of US new - crop soybeans, and the progress of biodiesel policies [13]. Rapeseed Oil - Short - term: Although the current spot supply - demand of domestic rapeseed oil is still tight, after the China - Canada negotiation, there is news that China has increased the purchase of Canadian rapeseed, and the first batch of Australian rapeseed has been processed. The supply - demand tension is expected to ease marginally, making its fundamentals weaker than those of soybean and palm oils. The price trend will follow the latter two, and attention should be paid to China - Canada and China - US relations [15][16]. - Long - term: In the 25/26 season, global rapeseed production (except in Ukraine) has increased year - on - year, with general demand, showing a clear pattern of looser supply - demand. In China, due to the improvement of China - Canada and China - Australia relations, the supply - demand of rapeseed is expected to continue to ease, and the price of far - month rapeseed oil may be relatively weak [17].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 蛋白粕： （侯雪玲，从业资格号：F3048706；交易咨询资格号：Z0013637） 周一，CBOT大豆下跌，从四周高位回落，因获利了结。美豆粕和美豆油均下跌。美豆出口检验报告为 单周检验量为132.4万吨，符合市场预期。当周对中国检验量为89.7万吨，占检验量的67.76%。巴西 25/26年产量预计触及1.81亿吨，高于之前预估的1.804亿吨。另外，机构预计收割4.9%，略高于去年的 3.9%。市场关注收割同时关注南里奥格兰德的高温干旱天气。国内方面，蛋白粕继续走高，跟随商品 普涨。春节临近，下游备货需求支撑价格走高。部分油厂存在压车现象，下游物理库存逐步增加。期现 联动，推动价格偏强震荡。策略上，双卖策略。 油脂： （侯雪玲，从业资格号：F3048706；交易咨询资格号：Z0013637） 生猪： （孔海兰，从业资格号：F3032578；交易咨询资格号：Z0013544） 周一，生猪期货偏弱震荡，主力2603合约日收跌0.86%，报收11465元/吨。卓创数据显示，昨日中国生 猪日度均价12.82元/公斤，环比跌0.04元/公斤，基准交 ...

Group 1: Soybean and Protein Meal - CBOT soybeans fell to a 10-month low due to ample supply, with the USDA raising US soybean inventory and Brazilian export estimates [2][8] - Private exporters sold 168,000 tons of soybeans to China and 152,400 tons to Mexico, while Brazil expects to export 3.73 million tons in January, up from a previous estimate of 2.4 million tons [2][8] - Domestic protein meal prices are fluctuating, with all 1.13 million tons of imported soybeans auctioned off at a premium of 0-190 yuan/ton, indicating market concerns about supply in March-April [2][8] Group 2: Oil and Fats - BMD palm oil prices declined due to uncertainties surrounding Indonesia's B50 biodiesel blending policy, although strong competition from other vegetable oils limited the drop [9] - US soybean oil prices increased amid expectations of improved biodiesel demand, while canola prices rose in anticipation of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China [9] - Domestic oil prices are generally rising, with palm oil leading the increase, while canola prices are under pressure due to potential policy changes [9] Group 3: Live Pig Market - Live pig futures for the 2603 contract experienced fluctuations, closing up 0.51% at 11,795 yuan/ton, with the average price of live pigs in China at 12.76 yuan/kg, a slight increase from the previous day [4] - The slow pace of livestock sales and reduced supply support the rebound in live pig prices, despite short-term supply being relatively sufficient [4] Group 4: Egg Market - Egg futures for the 2603 contract saw a decline of 0.99%, closing at 2,990 yuan/500 kg, while the national average egg price was 3.46 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight increase [10] - The market is experiencing strong demand for pre-holiday stocking, but the ample supply limits the potential for significant price increases [10] Group 5: Corn Market - Corn futures for the 2603 contract initially fell before rising, with prices approaching the 2,300 yuan mark, driven by bullish sentiment [11] - The spot corn market is supported by pre-holiday stocking, although the overall trading activity remains moderate due to ample supply from auctions and imports [11]

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures are experiencing a strong oscillation, with the main contract reaching a peak of 8866.00 yuan and currently trading at 8772.00 yuan, reflecting a 1.32% increase [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Zhengxin Futures indicates that palm oil continues its oscillating strong trend, supported by a decrease in production and an increase in exports as reported in the MPOB December report, which noted a month-end inventory of 3.05 million tons [2]. - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures anticipates a short-term strengthening of palm oil prices, citing macroeconomic factors such as the investigation into the Federal Reserve Chairman and geopolitical tensions in Iran, which have contributed to rising oil prices [3]. - Hualian Futures expects domestic oilseeds to maintain a strong oscillating trend, with signs of improvement in palm oil exports in January and potential favorable developments regarding Canadian canola tariffs [3]. Group 2: Inventory and Production Insights - The MPOB report indicates that Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory for December was 3.05 million tons, slightly above expectations, but the market has absorbed this bearish news [3]. - High-frequency data shows a reduction in Malaysian palm oil production and an increase in demand in early January, which is expected to improve supply-demand dynamics and support price recovery [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The improvement expectation of China - Canada trade relations is rising, which drags down the prices of rapeseed - related futures. The rapeseed - related market shows different supply - demand situations, with both short - term support and long - term supply pressure [7][9]. - The rapeseed market is affected by factors such as the supply of the United States and Brazil, and the import situation of Canada and Australia. The rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal markets follow the trend of soybean - related products to some extent [7][9]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Week - on - Week Key Points Summary 3.1.1 Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed down. The closing price of the 05 contract was 9042 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [7]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The supply - demand situation of Canadian rapeseed is relatively loose, which restricts the price. The expected improvement of China - Canada trade relations supports the Canadian rapeseed market. In Indonesia, there may be a reduction in oil palm plantations and a possible increase in palm oil export tax, which is beneficial for palm oil prices, but the expected increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory limits the increase. In China, oil mills are still shut down, and rapeseed oil is in a destocking mode, supporting the price and keeping the basis at a high level. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the expected improvement of China - Canada trade relations increase the long - term supply pressure [7]. 3.1.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Market Performance**: This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and closed down. The closing price of the 05 contract was 2338 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [9]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: During the US soybean export season, the supply is abundant, and the Brazilian soybean harvest is expected to be high. The US soybean market is under pressure. In China, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal is still restricted in the near term, and oil mills are shut down, leading to a tight supply. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the expected improvement of China - Canada trade relations increase the long - term supply pressure. Meanwhile, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price and Position - Rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a total open interest of 245,121 lots, an increase of 45,683 lots compared with last week [14]. - Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a total open interest of 809,345 lots, an increase of 177,875 lots compared with last week [14]. 3.2.2 Top 20 Net Positions - The top 20 net positions of rapeseed oil futures this week were - 10,917, compared with - 23,985 last week, with a decrease in net short positions [20]. - The top 20 net positions of rapeseed meal futures this week were - 107,343, compared with - 40,144 last week, with an increase in net short positions [20]. 3.2.3 Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 2042 lots [26]. - The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed meal were 84 lots [26]. 3.2.4 Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was reported at 9770 yuan/ton, slightly rising compared with last week. The basis between the active contract futures price and the Jiangsu spot price was + 728 yuan/ton [32]. - The price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was reported at 2460 yuan/ton, basically unchanged compared with last week. The basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active contract futures price of rapeseed meal was + 122 yuan/ton [38]. 3.2.5 Futures Inter - month Spread - The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was reported at + 21 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years [44]. - The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal was reported at - 60 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years [44]. 3.2.6 Futures - Spot Ratio - The ratio of the 05 contract of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal was 3.867; the ratio of the average spot price was 3.87 [47]. 3.2.7 Price Spreads between Rapeseed Oil and Soybean Oil/Palm Oil - The spread between the 05 contract of rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1048 yuan/ton, and the spread narrowed slightly this week [57]. - The spread between the 05 contract of rapeseed oil and palm oil was 360 yuan/ton, and the spread narrowed slightly this week [57]. 3.2.8 Price Spread between Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The spread between the 05 contract of soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 448 yuan/ton [63]. - As of Thursday, the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was reported at 710 yuan/ton [63]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation 3.3.1 Rapeseed - **Supply - Side Inventory and Import Forecast**: As of the end of the 1st week of 2026, the total inventory of imported rapeseed in China was 60,000 tons, the same as last week, and 722,000 tons in the same period last year. The five - week average was 61,000 tons. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in December 2025, January, and February were 60,000 tons, 125,000 tons, and 120,000 tons respectively [67]. - **Import Pressing Profit**: As of January 8, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed was + 1293 yuan/ton [71]. - **Oil Mill Pressing Volume**: As of the 1st week of 2026, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 0.0 tons, the same as last week, with an operating rate of 0.0% [75]. - **Monthly Import Arrival Volume**: In November 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed was 0.20 million tons, a decrease of 70.59 million tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 99.72%, and 0 tons in the previous month [79]. 3.3.2 Rapeseed Oil - **Supply - Side Inventory and Import Volume**: As of the end of the 1st week of 2026, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed oil in China was 323,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons compared with last week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.23%. In November 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed oil was 170,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 15.00%, and an increase of 30,000 tons compared with the previous month [83]. - **Demand - Side Consumption and Production**: As of October 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was reported at 4.276 million tons. As of the end of November, the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry were reported at 605.7 billion yuan [87]. - **Demand - Side Contract Volume**: As of the end of the 1st week of 2026, the contract volume of imported and pressed rapeseed oil in China was 53,000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons compared with last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47% [91]. 3.3.3 Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Side Inventory**: As of the end of the 1st week of 2026, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed meal in China was 0.0 tons, the same as last week, with a flat month - on - month change [95]. - **Supply - Side Import Volume**: In November 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed meal was 214,700 tons, an increase of 122,600 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 132.96%, and a month - on - month decrease of 5900 tons compared with the previous month [99]. - **Demand - Side Feed Output**: As of November 30, 2025, the monthly output of feed was reported at 2.9779 million tons [103]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - As of January 9, rapeseed meal fluctuated and closed down this week. The corresponding option implied volatility was 25.54%, a rebound of 8.85% compared with 16.69% last week, and it was at a relatively high level of the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [106].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the price of rapeseed meal has strengthened, with spot prices in Guangxi rising by 30 to 2500 yuan/ton [1] - As of December 12, the national rapeseed meal prices vary by region, with prices ranging from 2410 to 2640 yuan/ton depending on the market [2] - The futures market shows that the main rapeseed meal contract closed at 2347.00 yuan/ton on December 12, with a daily trading volume of 293,158 contracts [2] Group 2 - As of week 49, the inventory of imported rapeseed meal in South China is 234,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons from the previous week [2] - The top 20 futures companies hold a total of 438,500 long positions and 514,400 short positions in rapeseed meal, resulting in a net position of -75,900 contracts, an increase of 13,200 contracts from the previous day [3] - Analysis from Ruida Futures indicates that trade negotiations between China and Canada have not yet resolved tariff issues on canola seeds, leading to tight supply conditions [4]

Group 1: Protein Meal - CBOT soybeans rebounded from a low, supported by new export sales, with 136,000 tons sold to China and 119,000 tons to unknown destinations for the 25/26 shipping year [2][9] - The USDA reported a projected October soybean crush of 237 million bushels, exceeding September's 205 million bushels and market expectations of 234.2 million bushels [2][9] - Domestic protein meal is showing weakness, with expectations of lower import costs due to Argentina's tax reduction [2][9] Group 2: Oils - BMD palm oil prices fell due to an unexpected increase in November inventory, reported at 2,835,439 tons, a 13.04% month-on-month increase [3][10] - Exports decreased by 28.13% to 1,212,814 tons, while production fell by 5.30% to 1,935,510 tons, contributing to high inventory levels [3][10] - Domestic palm oil prices dropped, following the decline in Malaysian palm oil, with terminal demand remaining weak [3][10] Group 3: Live Pigs - The main live pig futures contract faced downward pressure, closing with a long bearish candle, while prices in various regions showed slight increases [5][6] - Black龙江's average price was 11.13 CNY/kg, with slight increases in Jilin and Liaoning, indicating a mixed market response [5][6] - The market is experiencing challenges in external demand, with local consumption limited, but future contracts are showing bullish sentiment [5][6] Group 4: Eggs - Egg futures showed mixed performance, with the near-month contract rising by 0.93% to 3,135 CNY per 500 kg, while the far-month contract fell by 0.3% [6][12] - The national average egg price was reported at 3.06 CNY per jin, reflecting a slight increase, with regional prices also showing minor fluctuations [6][12] - Supply improvements are limited, and the market is advised to observe future opportunities based on breeding and culling intentions [6][12] Group 5: Corn - The main corn futures contract stabilized at the 20-day moving average, recovering most of the previous day's losses [7][13] - Spot prices for corn in production areas decreased, with processing prices in Shandong dropping by 10-20 CNY/ton [7][13] - The market is experiencing low trading activity, with expectations for price adjustments in the short term [7][13]

Report Information - Report Title: Oilseed Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: December 9, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Wandong (Investment Consulting License Number: Z0022725) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The outer - market US soybeans focus on whether the yield of 53 bushels per acre in the December supply - demand report will continue to be reduced. The US claims 12 million tons of Chinese purchases, but less than 40% has been completed, and the completion date may be postponed. If the inventory remains around 300 million bushels, the US soybean price will fluctuate around the cost - line. The inner - market soybean meal lacks a unilateral driver and will follow the outer - market in the short - term. In the medium - term, the shipping schedule of Chinese purchases of US soybeans and the scale of the state reserve release will determine the supply in the first quarter. [4] - Recently, US soybeans have fallen below key levels, and the inner - market has followed suit with a larger decline due to the news of state reserve release. The profit of soybean purchases has decreased. The scale of the state reserve release is estimated to be between 5 - 6 million tons, and a weekly release of 500,000 tons may continue until the end of February. When trading the profit of US soybean purchases, the supply scale should be used to judge the trend. [4] - Rapeseed meal is in a state of weak supply and demand. The rapeseed inventory and crushing have been exhausted, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also declining rapidly. However, due to the expected arrival of Australian rapeseed and subsequent imports, the supply is expected to recover, so the rapeseed meal market is weak. Currently in the off - season of aquatic consumption, the demand growth is limited, and the rapeseed meal inventory is expected to rise. [4][5] - The cost of previous soybean purchases supports the near - month contracts, and the outer - market balance sheet valuation range is moving up. However, the current high inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills in China, the smooth planting in Brazil, and the expected South American bumper harvest are suppressing the far - month prices. The supply gap in the far - month is expected to be filled under the background of China - US trade talks. [8][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oilseed Price Forecast | Commodity | Price Range (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 - year) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal | 2800 - 3300 | 8.5% | 3.1% | | Rapeseed Meal | 2250 - 2750 | 9.8% | 0.9% | [3] | 2. Oilseed Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Scenario Analysis | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | High protein inventory, worried about the decline in meal prices | Long | Short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and cover production costs according to inventory | M2605 | Sell | 25% | 2850 - 2900 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Low regular procurement inventory, want to purchase according to orders | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs | M2605 | Buy | 50% | 2700 - 2750 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices | Long | Short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and cover production costs according to the situation | M2605 | Sell | 50% | 2850 - 2950 | [3] | 3. Oilseed Futures Prices | Commodity | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3008 | - 22 | - 0.73% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2763 | - 15 | - 0.54% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 2936 | - 9 | - 0.31% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2397 | - 25 | - 1.03% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2317 | - 25 | - 1.07% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2446 | - 18 | - 0.73% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1093.75 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.0723 | 0.0036 | 0.05% | [9] | 4. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Price Spreads | Spread | Price | Today's Change | Spread | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 252 | 37 | RM01 - 05 | 20 | - 7 | | M05 - 09 | - 115 | - 3 | RM05 - 09 | - 69 | 0 | | M09 - 01 | - 100 | - 5 | RM09 - 01 | 49 | 7 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3020 | 0 | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | 199 | 12 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2580 | 0 | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | 38 | 35 | | Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 640 | 20 | Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 436 | - 8 | [10] | 5. Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4716.1059 | - 40.415 | 0.0773 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3763.46 | - 32.42 | - 73.19 | | US Gulf (3%) - US Gulf (23%) Cost Difference | - 766.8465 | - 2.2244 | 6.6552 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 1011.6253 | - 40.415 | - 138.5985 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 67.7677 | 0.2112 | - 0.708 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 687 | - 51 | 23 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 913 | - 55 | 13 | [11] |

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current focus of soybean meal futures trading is that the external market of US soybeans is mainly driven by export demand under the background of China-US negotiations, with an expected export of 12 million tons to China being gradually priced in. Attention is paid to whether the ending inventory in the USDA report this week will remain around 300 million bushels, and the subsequent price oscillation range will shift slightly upwards. The domestic soybean meal market is gradually pricing in the de-stocking logic after the tariff implementation, with a positive spread logic of near-term strength and long-term weakness. [4] - The current focus of rapeseed meal futures trading is that the supply and demand will remain weak in the fourth quarter. After the Chinese government's decision to resume group tours to Canada on November 3rd, there is an additional expectation of negotiations. Considering the arrival of Australian rapeseed after November, the subsequent demand growth is expected to be limited, and the supply is expected to recover. The inventory of coastal and oil mill rapeseed meal remains high, limiting the rebound space. Attention can be paid to the new warehouse receipt registration after the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November. [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current volatility of 9.8% and a historical percentile of 6.8% over three years. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current volatility of 17.6% and a historical percentile of 32.4% over three years. [3] 2. Hedging Strategy Table - For traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at the price range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs. [3] - For feed mills with low regular inventory, they can buy soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs in advance. [3] - For oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low selling prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs. [3] 3. Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3054, down 9 (-0.29%); soybean meal 05 is 2836, up 7 (0.25%); soybean meal 09 is 2952, up 9 (0.31%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2500, down 27 (-1.07%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2421, down 7 (-0.29%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2494, down 2 (-0.08%); CBOT yellow soybeans is 1127.5, unchanged (0%); the offshore RMB is 7.1232, up 0.0018 (0.03%). [7][10] 4. Price Spreads and Import Costs/Profits - The price spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are provided, along with the spot prices, basis, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. [11] - The import costs and profits of US Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseed are presented, including daily and weekly changes. [11] 5. Factors Affecting Prices - Bullish factors include that the Brazilian export premium supports the far-month contract prices from the cost side, the external market strengthens under the background of US soybean procurement, and the pressure on the near-month contracts is relieved during the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts. [9] - Bearish factors include that the current near-month supply of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills remains high, Brazilian planting is progressing smoothly with a high-yield expectation in South America, and the far-month supply gap is filled under the background of China-US negotiations. [9]