Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Externally, the weather in the late growth stage of US soybeans has turned slightly dry, and the market's sensitivity to the weather is gradually increasing. In the short term, Sino-US talks have intensified the expectation of a rebound in US soybeans. Domestically, the domestic soybean complex has weakened due to Sino-US talks, and attention should be paid to whether the supply-demand gap in the far - month contracts can open up upward space. The domestic rapeseed complex also has the expectation of Sino - Canadian talks and may show weak sentiment in the short term [4]. - There is a strong bullish sentiment for far - month contracts due to the supply - demand gap. The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side. The Sino - Canadian tariff expectation provides high support for the far - month contracts, but short - term sentiment may suppress the market due to the negotiation expectation. The timing of going long depends on subsequent changes in warehouse receipts [5]. - For soybean meal, the real - world pressure lies in the arrival of the inventory inflection point in September. After the trading logic shifts to far - month contracts, attention should be paid to the subsequent soybean supply. The supply of imported soybeans in China is at a seasonal high, the oil mill crush volume has slightly increased, and soybean meal continues to accumulate inventory seasonally. In terms of demand, the physical inventory has increased seasonally, and consumption remains at a rigid - demand level due to high livestock inventories. The expected soybean arrivals are 10 million tons in September, 9 million tons in October, and 8 million tons in November. Without purchasing US soybeans, a supply gap is expected after the first quarter of next year [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The price range forecast for soybean meal in the month is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.5% and a historical percentile of 19.8% over 3 years. The price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.4% and a historical percentile of 76.3% over 3 years [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs according to enterprise inventory to prevent inventory losses | M2601 | Sell | 25% | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance on the market to prevent the increase of procurement costs due to rising meal prices | M2601 | Buy | 50% | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs according to enterprise situation to prevent losses from imported inventory | M2601 | Sell | 50% | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Oilseed Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3054 | 0 | 0% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2814 | 0 | 0% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 3004 | - 18 | - 0.6% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2513 | 0 | 0% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2406 | 0 | 0% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2540 | - 10 | - 0.39% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1053 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1359 | 0.0324 | 0.46% | [7][9] 3.4 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads | Spread Type | Price | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 240 | 5 | | M05 - 09 | - 190 | 12 | | M09 - 01 | - 50 | - 17 | | RM01 - 05 | 107 | 18 | | RM05 - 09 | - 134 | - 8 | | RM09 - 01 | 27 | - 10 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3020 | 20 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | - 34 | 21 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2516 | - 8 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | 3 | - 8 | | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 504 | 28 | | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 541 | - 1 | [10] 3.5 Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4531.2634 | - 29.8378 | - 0.2236 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3992.81 | 19.18 | - 58.48 | | US Gulf (3%) - US Gulf (23%) Cost Difference | - 736.7908 | - 1.8538 | 68.0082 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 589.4934 | - 29.8378 | 424.5052 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 154.0428 | 0 | 0.4671 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 779 | 55 | 166 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 870 | 55 | 185 | [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Long - term bullish, short - term correction [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global oil and fat inventory - to - sales ratio is expected to decrease, and the biodiesel policies in producing areas and trade topics still have room for speculation, which will lift the price center of oil and fat in the long term. However, the short - term market shows a correction after the favorable factors are exhausted, and it is necessary to wait for a new round of bullish drivers. Short - selling is not recommended [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Palm oil is neutral to bullish; soybean oil is neutral to bearish. The heavy rain in Malaysia in the next week may bring bullish weather speculation. The good rate of US soybeans has been further raised, and other fundamental changes are not significant. Indonesia's low inventory in June and the firm export price still support the international palm oil price. US soybean pod numbers are excellent, but the yield per unit is slightly lower than USDA's forecast. There is still an anti - dumping expectation for Canadian rapeseed, and the import volume of Australian rapeseed cannot temporarily supplement the rapeseed oil supply [5] - **Demand**: Neutral. The high - demand expectation has been priced in before. Countries such as Indonesia, the US, and Brazil are actively promoting biodiesel policies, which is the biggest driver for the tightening of oil and fat supply. There may be state reserves to digest the high - inventory demand [5] - **Inventory**: Neutral to bearish. The total domestic oil and fat inventory increased last week, which has a bearish expectation difference compared with the previous expectation of "inventory peaking and de - stocking", mainly affecting the basis and the spread between months to weaken [5] - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral to bullish. The previous expectations remain unchanged. The US has an interest - rate cut expectation, the negative impact of the US biodiesel policy is exhausted, there is an anti - dumping expectation for Canadian rapeseed, and the Indonesian government is determined to implement B50 but the progress is expected to be slow [5] - **Investment Viewpoint**: Long - term bullish, short - term correction. The global oil and fat inventory - to - sales ratio is expected to decrease, and the biodiesel policies in producing areas and trade topics still have room for speculation, which will lift the price center of oil and fat in the long term. However, the short - term market shows a correction after the favorable factors are exhausted, and it is necessary to wait for a new round of bullish drivers. Short - selling is not recommended [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Call options. Unilateral: Buy on dips. Risk concerns: Crude oil fluctuations and policy disturbances. Arbitrage: Go long on oil and short on meal in the far - month contracts. Options: Buy out - of - the - money options [5] 3.2 Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of the main oil and fat contracts and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as the price differences between different contracts such as P9 - 1, Y9 - 1, OI9 - 1, and the spot price differences between domestic soybean oil and palm oil [7][10][12] 3.3 Oil and Fat Supply - and - Demand Fundamentals - **Southeast Asian Weather**: It includes the precipitation and temperature forecasts in Southeast Asia in the past, present, and future periods [19][21][23] - **Indonesian Monthly Supply and Demand**: It shows the monthly data of Indonesian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 to 2025 [31][33][36] - **Malaysian Monthly Supply and Demand**: It presents the monthly data of Malaysian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 to 2025 [37][39][42] - **Indian Monthly Import and International Bean - Palm Price Difference**: It includes the monthly import volume of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil in India from 2021 to 2025, as well as the price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil [43][45][47] - **Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply and Demand**: It shows the cumulative import volume, daily trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost price, import hedging profit, and monthly import volume of domestic palm oil from 2021 to 2025 [49][51][53] - **US Soybean Situation**: It includes the precipitation forecast, temperature distribution, good rate, flowering rate, and pod - setting rate in the US soybean - producing areas, as well as the export situation of the US and Brazil [61][64][73] - **Canadian Rapeseed Situation**: It presents the precipitation forecast, temperature distribution, soil moisture in the Canadian rapeseed - producing areas, and the export and domestic arrival situation of rapeseed [88][99][101] - **Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Situation**: It includes the weekly arrival volume of Chinese soybeans, the weekly production of soybean oil in domestic crushing plants, the daily trading volume of soybean oil, the weekly inventory of soybean oil in Chinese crushing plants, the weekly crushing volume of Chinese rapeseed, the weekly production of rapeseed oil in oil mills, the pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in oil mills, and the weekly inventory of rapeseed oil [87][108][112]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The key focus for the external market is the export of new - crop US soybeans to China due to the dry planting weather in the US. For the domestic soybean market, it's about whether the supply - demand gap in the far - month contracts will open up the upside space. The domestic rapeseed market still has long - position value after a short - term pullback due to China - Canada anti - dumping duties [4]. - There is a strong bullish sentiment in the far - month contracts due to the supply - demand gap. The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side. For rapeseed meal, although the near - month is under spot pressure, the far - month still has long - position value considering potential supply shortages [5]. - The trading logic of domestic soybean meal is shifting to the far - month contracts, and attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point in September. The supply of imported soybeans is at a seasonal high, and soybean meal is in a seasonal inventory accumulation trend [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. For rapeseed meal, the price range is 2450 - 2750, with a volatility of 12.7% and a historical percentile of 7.2% [3]. 2. Oilseed Hedging Strategy - Traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits [3]. - Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low prices can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3. Oilseed Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3160, down 1 (-0.03%); soybean meal 05 is 2860, up 16 (0.56%); soybean meal 09 is 3116, up 3 (0.1%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2627, up 23 (0.88%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2517, up 12 (0.48%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2667, down 11 (-0.41%) [7]. 4. CBOT and Exchange Rate - The price of CBOT yellow soybeans is 1033.25, unchanged (0%), and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1865, unchanged (0%) [9]. 5. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the spot prices and basis of soybean meal in Rizhao and rapeseed meal in Fujian, and the spreads between soybean and rapeseed meal are provided. For example, M01 - 05 spread is 300, down 17 [10]. 6. Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4884.6258 yuan/ton, up 10.1611 yuan/day and 0.0803 yuan/week. The Brazilian soybean import cost is 4061.54 yuan/ton, down 16.26 yuan/day and 56.14 yuan/week. The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 847.4358 yuan/ton, up 10.1611 yuan/day and down 133.8179 yuan/week. The Brazilian soybean import profit is 126.2342 yuan/ton, up 10.3514 yuan/day and 0.0394 yuan/week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed for the futures and spot markets is also provided [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The planting weather of US soybeans in the outer market remains favorable, showing a weak trend; the downside space of the near - term contracts of the domestic soybean system is limited, and the market is gradually shifting to price the supply - demand gap logic of the far - term contracts; the rapeseed system has strengthened in the short term due to the relief of its own warehouse receipt pressure [4]. - There is a strong bullish sentiment for the far - term contracts under the supply - demand gap, and the export premium of Brazilian soybeans supports the price of the far - term contracts from the cost side [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Range Forecast - The price range of soybean meal in the next month is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. The price range of rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.2% [3]. 3.2 Oil Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs | M2601 | Sell | 25 | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs | M2601 | Buy | 50 | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs | M2601 | Sell | 50 | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - The outer - market US soybean planting weather is favorable and shows a weak trend; the near - term contracts of the domestic soybean system have limited downside space, and the market is pricing the far - term supply - demand gap; the rapeseed system strengthens due to the relief of warehouse receipt pressure [4]. 3.4 Bullish and Bearish Interpretations - Bullish factors: The basis has rebounded due to some oil mills' shutdowns, and the downside space for the subsequent spot - futures convergence of the 09 contract is limited. The soybean arrivals are expected to have a gap after December. The near - term rapeseed meal is stronger than soybean meal due to warehouse receipt issues, and the far - term rapeseed supply has uncertainties leading to accelerated marginal destocking [5][6]. 3.5 Oil Futures Prices | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3072 | 7 | 0.23% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2762 | 11 | 0.4% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 3026 | 3 | 0.1% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2463 | 24 | 0.98% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2402 | 15 | 0.63% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2745 | 21 | 0.77% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 990.5 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1868 | 0.0026 | 0.04% | [6] 3.6 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads | Spread Type | Value | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 310 | - 4 | | M05 - 09 | - 264 | 8 | | M09 - 01 | - 46 | - 4 | | RM01 - 05 | 61 | 9 | | RM05 - 09 | - 343 | - 6 | | RM09 - 01 | 282 | - 3 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 2900 | - 30 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | - 126 | - 33 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2562 | 11 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | - 162 | - 35 | | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 338 | - 30 | | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 281 | - 18 | [10] 3.7 Oil Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4655.5086 | 29.7162 | - 0.0771 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3970.92 | 8.71 | 38.09 | | US Gulf (3%) - US Gulf (23%) Cost Difference | - 756.9933 | 2.162 | 12.6856 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 724.9886 | 29.7162 | 136.5096 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 106.2403 | - 25.7061 | 0.5465 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 296 | 86 | 218 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 479 | 104 | 238 | [10]

Core Viewpoint - This week, canola oil futures experienced fluctuations and closed higher, influenced by various market factors [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Canola oil futures closed at 9524 yuan/ton, an increase of 67 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [1] - The market is currently in a "weather-dominated" phase for canola seed growth, with recent favorable rainfall in Canada alleviating some market pressure [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The potential restoration of canola seed trade between China and Australia may add future supply pressure [1] - High-frequency data indicates an increase in palm oil production in July, but a decline in exports, which is expected to continue to build inventory and restrain palm oil prices [1] - Indonesia's significant export increase and low inventory levels, along with positive news regarding biodiesel from the US and Indonesia, are supportive for the oilseed market [1] Group 3: Domestic Market Conditions - The domestic market is currently in an off-season for oil consumption, leading to a relaxed supply of vegetable oils and high inventory pressure for canola oil mills [1] - A decrease in operating rates at oil mills has reduced production pressure for canola oil, while fewer canola seed purchases in the third quarter have lowered supply-side pressures [1] Group 4: Trading Strategy - The market strategy suggests a focus on short-term participation due to the current market conditions [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The external market strengthened under the expectation of Sino-US talks, and the domestic market followed the positive spread logic. The rapeseed sector was relatively strong due to short - term supply - demand mismatch. There is still a gap in fourth - quarter vessel bookings, and the overall meal prices will reach an inflection point this year. From a valuation perspective, the downside space of US soybeans at the cost end is limited, and the far - month contract prices are expected to receive marginal upward drivers with the expected resilience of Brazilian premiums [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 15.5%. For rapeseed meal, the range is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1669 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.2664 [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - For traders with high protein inventory worried about meal price drops, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits [3]. - Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) at 2850 - 3000 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions and Market Trends - **Core Contradictions**: The external market is strong due to Sino - US talks, the domestic market follows positive spread logic, and the rapeseed sector is strong due to short - term supply - demand mismatch. There is a fourth - quarter vessel - booking gap, and meal prices will inflect. The cost - end US soybeans have limited downside, and far - month prices may rise [4]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US talks support the US soybean market, bullish sentiment is strong in far - month contracts due to weather speculation, and Brazilian export premiums support far - month contract prices [9]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: - Spot - end supply pressure is reflected in the basis, and the market lacks short - selling pressure due to hedging position transfers [6]. - Near - month arrivals are sufficient (11.5 million tons in July, 11 million tons in August, 10 million tons in September), with a gap after December [6]. - Rapeseed meal inventory is increasing slightly, near - month warehouse receipt pressure is easing, and there are signs of Sino - Canadian and Sino - Australian talks, but the market has already priced in this information [6]. 3.3 Market Data - **Futures Prices**: - Soybean meal futures: M01 closed at 3078, up 24 (0.79%); M05 at 2744, up 20 (0.73%); M09 at 3056, up 27 (0.89%) [7]. - Rapeseed meal futures: RM01 at 2394, up 7 (0.29%); RM05 at 2352, up 12 (0.51%); RM09 at 2722, up 3 (0.11%) [7]. - **CBOT and Exchange Rate**: CBOT yellow soybeans were at 1027.25, unchanged (0%), and the offshore RMB was at 7.1865, up 0.006 (0.08%) [10]. - **Price Spreads**: - Soybean meal spreads: M01 - 05 was 334, up 4; M05 - 09 was - 312, down 7; M09 - 01 was - 22, up 3 [11]. - Rapeseed meal spreads: RM01 - 05 was 42, down 5; RM05 - 09 was - 370, up 9; RM09 - 01 was 328, down 4 [11]. - Spot prices and basis: Soybean meal in Rizhao was 2880, up 30, with a basis of - 176, up 3; rapeseed meal in Fujian was 2655, up 22, with a basis of - 64, down 44 [11]. - Spot and futures spreads: The spot spread between soybean and rapeseed meal was 225, up 30; the futures spread was 334, up 24 [11]. - **Import Costs and Profits**: - US Gulf soybean import cost (23%) was 4781.821 yuan/ton, up 12.1422; Brazilian soybean import cost was 3935.15 yuan/ton, up 18.12 [12]. - US Gulf soybean import profit (23%) was - 873.261 yuan/ton, up 12.1422; Brazilian soybean import profit was 129.2523 yuan/ton, up 2.8987 [12]. - Canadian rapeseed import profit: The import - on - paper profit was 305, down 80; the import - spot profit was 300, down 74 [12].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (Positive Outlook)**: Beans (★★☆), Soybean Meal (★★★), Rapeseed Meal (★★☆), Rapeseed Oil (★★★) [1] - **Sell (Negative Outlook)**: Palm Oil (★★★), Corn (★★★), Live Hogs (★★★), Eggs (★☆☆) [1] Core Views - The report provides a daily analysis of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live hogs, and eggs. It assesses the current market conditions, factors influencing prices, and offers short - and long - term outlooks for each product. Short - term factors such as weather, policy, and trade uncertainties are emphasized, while long - term trends like bio - diesel development and supply - demand fundamentals are also considered [2][3][4] Summary by Category Soybeans - Domestic soybeans have stopped falling and rebounded, with prices slightly fluctuating. Northeast China's weather is favorable for soybean growth this week, and policy - driven trading had good results. Future weather and policies need close attention. US soybean优良率 is 66%, in line with market expectations, and future US weather shows no major deviations. Uncertainties in Sino - US trade remain, and the Dalian soybean market is currently in a state of oscillation [2][3] Soybean Meal - US soybean conditions are normal, and the domestic oil mill's weekly crushing volume remains high, leading to an increase in soybean meal inventory. Brazilian premiums have risen significantly, and domestic oil mills' 9 - month shipping procurement progress has reached 70%. With many uncertainties in Sino - US trade and no bad weather in the US for now, the Dalian soybean meal market is expected to oscillate [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The palm oil main contract has partially reduced positions, and prices have slightly corrected. The MPOB report shows that production meets expectations, but exports are lower, domestic consumption is higher, and ending stocks are higher than expected. In the third quarter, overseas palm oil is in a seasonal production - increasing cycle. In the long run, bio - diesel development can support vegetable oil prices, so a long - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended. Short - term attention should be paid to policy and weather [4] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - There is still a risk of local dryness in the Canadian rapeseed - growing area, but recent rainfall has alleviated some concerns. CFTG funds hold a net long position in ICE rapeseed, which is at a historical high, and there is a risk of price pressure if funds reduce their positions. The domestic rapeseed oil market is weak, affected by the poor export performance of palm oil in the MPOB report. The rapeseed - related futures prices are under short - term pressure [6] Corn - The Dalian corn market is oscillating. Since July, due to the impact of CNGC auctions, the supply has increased and prices have declined, affecting market expectations. The supply from some grass - roots traders has increased, and the purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises in Shandong and Northeast China have generally fallen. The corn futures market is likely to continue oscillating [7] Live Hogs - Live hog futures have increased in positions and prices, with the main contract hitting a new high. However, the spot price has weakened slightly, and the basis has narrowed significantly. The long - term production capacity pressure remains as the inventory of breeding sows increased in June, indicating a downward pressure on hog prices in the medium - to - long - term [8] Eggs - Egg futures have increased in positions and decreased in price, hitting a new low. The spot price is stable. July is a turning point between the off - season and peak season for egg prices, but this year's peak season may start later due to the late Mid - Autumn Festival. The 8 - month futures contract still has a premium of nearly a thousand yuan over the spot. In the long run, the long - term egg price has not bottomed out due to insufficient capacity reduction [9]

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil market is experiencing fluctuations, with domestic futures showing a rebound and international prices remaining strong, indicating a complex interplay of supply and demand factors affecting future pricing trends [1][2][3] Group 1: Domestic Market Analysis - As of July 8, domestic palm oil futures opened at 8476 CNY/ton and showed a rebound with a current increase of 2.06%, reaching 8620 CNY/ton [1] - The market is characterized by mixed performance in the oilseed sector, with palm oil futures demonstrating stronger performance compared to other oil varieties [2] Group 2: International Market Dynamics - The Malaysian Derivatives Exchange (BMD) palm oil futures opened at 4067 MYR/ton and are currently at 4120.6 MYR/ton, reflecting a 1.44% increase, with intraday highs of 4126 MYR/ton [1] - The expected increase in Malaysian palm oil exports and a seasonal decline in production are anticipated to stabilize inventory levels, supporting prices [2][3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - Short-term forecasts suggest that palm oil will outperform soybean and canola oils due to favorable growing conditions for soybeans and a lack of speculative drivers in the industry [2] - The expected reduction in Malaysian palm oil production in June, coupled with good export demand, is likely to slow inventory growth, providing support for prices [3] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Long-term trends indicate that biodiesel policies in Brazil and the U.S. may reduce soybean oil exports, benefiting the price differential between soybean and palm oil and supporting palm oil exports [3] - The overall sentiment in the palm oil market remains cautious, with a focus on fundamental factors and potential policy impacts as key risk elements [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum Oxide [1] - Bearish: Zinc (for short - term short - selling opportunity), Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil (if no significant reduction in US soybean acreage), Pulp, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, PVC, LPG [1] - Neutral: Treasury Bonds, Gold, Silver, Zinc (in general), Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Polycrystalline Silicon, Rebar, Iron Ore, Silicon Iron, Glass, Coking Coal, Coke, Canola Oil, Cotton, Corn, Bean Meal (MO9), Logs, Pig Futures, PTA, Styrene, Other Chemicals [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the market is mainly driven by sentiment and liquidity, and it's necessary to pay attention to macro - incremental information for index direction guidance. The asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The overall macro sentiment has improved, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has risen. Attention should be paid to tariff - related progress and domestic and foreign economic data changes [1]. - For different commodities, their price trends are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, inventory levels, macro policies, and international relations. For example, the supply recovery expectation of some metals is strong, while the demand shows signs of weakening, but the macro - sentiment improvement leads to price rebounds [1]. Group 3: Summaries by Industry Macro - Financial - Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate as the asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate. Gold may be under short - term pressure due to improved market risk preference, but high tariff uncertainty prevents continuous decline. Silver is mainly in short - term oscillation [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper, aluminum, and aluminum oxide are expected to be bullish in the short - term due to factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, improved market risk preference, and low inventory levels [1]. - Zinc price rebounds under improved macro - sentiment, but there is an opportunity to short at the high - rebound level due to strong supply - recovery expectation and weakening demand [1]. - Nickel price rebounds from the short - term bottom but has limited upward space. There is still pressure from primary nickel oversupply in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term interval operation and short - selling hedging on rebounds are recommended [1]. - Stainless steel futures oscillate and rebound in the short - term, but the sustainability remains to be observed. There is still supply pressure in the medium - to - long - term [1]. - Tin price rebounds under improved macro - sentiment, and attention should be paid to the import situation of Wa State tin ore [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate. The supply - demand pattern of rebar is loose, and there is no upward price - driving force. For iron ore, there is an expectation of iron - water peak, and the supply may increase in June [1]. - Silicon iron price is expected to oscillate with weak supply - demand and approaching the off - season [1]. - Glass price is expected to oscillate weakly as the supply - surplus concern resurfaces, and the terminal demand is weak [1]. - Coking coal and coke prices are bearish. In the context of over - capacity, the opportunity of futures premium for short - selling hedging should be grasped [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil price is expected to decline as the supply is strong, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating after the stagnation or decline of crude oil [1]. - Rapeseed oil price is expected to be bearish if the USDA report does not significantly reduce the US soybean acreage [1]. - Canola oil price is expected to oscillate before the result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed is announced [1]. - Cotton price is expected to oscillate weakly. There are short - term disturbances in the US cotton market, and the domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the consumption off - season [1]. - Sugar production in Brazil's 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - production ratio and lead to higher - than - expected sugar output [1]. - Corn price is expected to oscillate in the short - term and a short - selling strategy on far - month contracts is recommended after the production situation is clearer [1]. - Bean meal (MO9) is expected to oscillate. There is an expectation of import - cost increase in the fourth quarter, and long - position opportunities at low prices for the November and January contracts are recommended [1]. - Pulp price is bearish due to the decline in foreign - market quotes, increased shipments, and weak domestic demand [1]. - Log price is expected to be weak as it is in the off - season and the supply decline is limited despite the foreign - market price increase [1]. - Pig futures are expected to be stable. Although the live - pig inventory is being repaired and the slaughter weight is increasing, the short - term spot is less affected by slaughter, and the decline is limited [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil and fuel oil prices are bearish as the Middle - East geopolitical situation cools down, OPEC+ may continue to increase production, and the long - term supply - demand tends to be loose [1]. - Asphalt price is affected by cost drag, possible increase in Shandong's consumption - tax refund, and slow demand recovery [1]. - Natural rubber price is affected by weakening downstream demand, strong supply - release expectation, and slightly increased inventory [1]. - BR rubber price is expected to be weak in the short - term. The BR premium has been withdrawn, the synthetic - rubber fundamentals are under pressure, and the factory - ex price of butadiene rubber has been lowered [1]. - PTA price is expected to oscillate. The basis continues to weaken, the Northeast PX device maintenance is postponed, and the overseas PX device maintenance leads to a relatively strong PX performance [1]. - Styrene price: The device load has recovered, the inventory is concentrated, and the basis has strengthened significantly [1]. - Other chemicals such as PVC, caustic soda, and LPG are expected to be bearish. PVC is affected by the end of maintenance, new - device production, and the seasonal off - season. LPG has downward space due to factors such as geopolitical - situation mitigation, seasonal off - season, and increased inflow of low - price foreign goods [1]. Other - It is expected that the freight rate will reach the peak in mid - to - early July, showing an arc - top trend in July and August, with the peak - reaching time advanced. The shipping capacity deployment will be sufficient in the following weeks [1].

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 6 月 29 日 棕榈油：产地基本面改善有限，价差表达为主 豆油：弱现实强预期格局，驱动不足 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：自身基本面变化不大，跟随原油波动为主，此外本周加菜籽买船增多、美豆转弱、豆粕进口 等情绪对油脂油料板块形成偏弱影响，棕榈油 09 合约周跌幅 1.87%。 豆油：本周加菜籽买船增多、美豆转弱、原油暴跌等情绪对油脂油料板块形成偏弱影响，豆油 09 合 约周跌 1.89%。 本周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：6 月降雨预报显示马来将继续偏干，保守估计在高基数下产量持平微减至 170-175 万吨。结 合沙巴和马来半岛树龄老化的现状以及单产和出油率逐年走低的事实，在面对当前历史性的产量以及单产 高点的情况下，增产速度能否持续仍需打一个问号，我们预估 2025 年马来棕榈油产量在 1920 万吨左右， 警惕 7-8 月产量不及去年同期的风险。产地出口维持强劲，ITS 前 25 日出口环比增 6.84%，印度 6 月棕 榈油进口量或在 90 万吨以上，虽有 20 万吨左右来自于泰国 ...