| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月10日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | な☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆油 | な☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕櫚油 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 豆粕 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | な☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | な女女 | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猎 | ななな | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆主力止跌反弹之后，目前价格小幅震荡排回。本周东北地区大部气温偏高，降水偏多，土壤摘情适宜。预计未来一 周,大豆产区天气对作物生长有利。本周政策端进行了购销双向交易,成交情况好。进口大豆方面未来一周美豆产区天气利于 作物生长。短期持续关注天气和政策的指引。 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 农产品日报 【 ...

正信期货研报观点指出，短期棕榈油强于其它油脂品种。美豆生长状况较好，产业端缺乏炒作题材，加 之美对外关税忧虑，隔夜CBOT大豆回吐此前所有涨幅。机构预期6月马棕出口增加、产量逆季节性下 滑，库存止增，加之美生柴阶段性利好传导，BMD毛棕再次站上4000整数关口。加菜籽出口势头较 好，旧作供应延续偏紧格局。操作上，美生柴阶段性利好兑现，市场等待其本周进行的听证会及MPOB 月报，棕榈油涨势放缓，单边中长线继续关注逢低机会。基本面差异，短期棕榈油强于豆菜油，菜棕9 月价差再度逼近1000关口，前期仓位谨慎持有。 创元期货表示，棕榈油方面，增产季产量增幅超预期，产地持续累库，但根据高频数据预计6月马棕产 量将环比减少，库存也将下滑，关注MPOB报告。中国5月棕榈油进口量为18万吨，5月上旬起国内棕榈 油进口利润逐渐抬升，买船增加，6月到港量预计超30万吨，库存小幅增加，但7月到港预计下滑至17万 吨，库存预计难再增加，仍将维持低位。长期来看，油脂在生物柴油政策利多下易涨难跌，短期回归基 本面，震荡为主，震荡区间较此前平台上移。消息面和政策面仍是最大的风险因素。 瑞达期货（002961）分析称，由于马棕6月产量环比预 ...

| CE KERD | 日度策略参 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期: 2025/07 | 人业资格号:F025 以 | | | | | | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 品种 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 短期来看,在情绪和流动性的驱动下偏强震荡的概率较高,后续 | | | 关注宏观增量信息对股指方向的指引。 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 国债) | 震荡 | | | | 空间。 | 宏观金融 | 市场风险偏好改善, | 金价短期或承压;但关税不确定性仍高企, | 農汤 | 百金 | | 金价或难持续下挫,料震荡运行。 | 震荡 | 银价短期震荡为主。 | 白银 | | | | 近期美联储多位官员发表鸽派言论,市场风险偏好回升,叠加海 | 外挤仓行情发酵,短期铜价偏强。 | 近期美联储降息预期提升,市场风险偏好回升,叠加电解铝库存5 | | | | | 低位运行,铝价偏强运行。 | 美联储降息预期提升,市场风险偏好回归,商品价格上行,氧化 | 氢化铝 | 看多 | | | | 铝短期偏强。 | 供 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 6 月 29 日 棕榈油：产地基本面改善有限，价差表达为主 豆油：弱现实强预期格局，驱动不足 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：自身基本面变化不大，跟随原油波动为主，此外本周加菜籽买船增多、美豆转弱、豆粕进口 等情绪对油脂油料板块形成偏弱影响，棕榈油 09 合约周跌幅 1.87%。 豆油：本周加菜籽买船增多、美豆转弱、原油暴跌等情绪对油脂油料板块形成偏弱影响，豆油 09 合 约周跌 1.89%。 本周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：6 月降雨预报显示马来将继续偏干，保守估计在高基数下产量持平微减至 170-175 万吨。结 合沙巴和马来半岛树龄老化的现状以及单产和出油率逐年走低的事实，在面对当前历史性的产量以及单产 高点的情况下，增产速度能否持续仍需打一个问号，我们预估 2025 年马来棕榈油产量在 1920 万吨左右， 警惕 7-8 月产量不及去年同期的风险。产地出口维持强劲，ITS 前 25 日出口环比增 6.84%，印度 6 月棕 榈油进口量或在 90 万吨以上，虽有 20 万吨左右来自于泰国 ...

| 上游PX装置检修密集,PX的内外价差有明显的修复。由于PTA的利 | 润修复,PX的采购需求明显走强,浮动价格开始走强,国内PTA和 | PTA | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 重整装置计划在5月期间检修更多装置。聚酯的超高负荷使得PTA | 的需求得到了支撑。 | | | | | | | | 乙二醇装置检修,江苏以及浙江大型装置降负,煤制装置已经出 | 農汤 | 7 -- 四 | 能源化工 | 现检修。 | | | | | PTA略有紧张的局面导致短纤的成本支撑走强,并且在高基差的情 | 短年 | 看 % | 况下,短纤表现较为强势。 | | | | | | 纯苯需求的疲弱价格继续下行。重整装置利润的下滑已经清晰而 | 明确地开始影响装置的负荷。纯苯的暴跌之后。纯苯下游需求继 | 苯乙烯 | 看零 | 续转弱。 | | | | | 市场预期利好,情绪偏强,短期内尿素行情大概率坚挺上行。 | 看多 | 尿素 | 基差追高,回补积极,短期内甲醇价格区间震荡运行。中长期甲 | 用量 | 農物 | | | | 醇现货 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the prices of various oils showed different trends. BMD Malaysian palm oil and domestic palm oil futures prices declined, while ICE canola futures prices rose. The price of domestic rapeseed oil futures also increased, and the price of domestic soybean oil futures slightly decreased [4][7]. - After the holiday, palm oil was weak due to the arrival of the production - increasing season in the producing areas, a significant increase in production, limited support from export demand, and expected increases in domestic and foreign inventories. Canola prices continued to strengthen due to increased crushing demand and low domestic inventories. Domestic rapeseed oil was relatively strong because of expected import tightening. US soybean oil prices declined as the US biodiesel policy was not authorized and the budget might be cut [4][7]. - Macro - economically, the China - US economic and trade negotiations reached an important consensus, and the US stock market continued a small - scale rebound. The US dollar index might stabilize at a low level, and crude oil prices might stop falling and enter a volatile phase. Fundamentally, in the production - increasing cycle, production increased significantly, export demand improvement was limited, and domestic inventories were expected to rise. Palm oil might operate in a weak and volatile manner [4][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The price changes of various oil contracts from April 30 to May 9 are as follows: CBOT soybean oil main contract decreased by 0.33 cents/lb to 48.64 cents/lb, a decline of 0.67%; BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract decreased by 95 ringgit/ton to 3815 ringgit/ton, a decline of 2.43%; DCE palm oil decreased by 262 yuan/ton to 7886 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.22%; DCE soybean oil decreased by 52 yuan/ton to 7780 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.66%; CZCE rapeseed oil increased by 58 yuan/ton to 9355 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.62%. The futures price difference between soybean oil and palm oil increased by 210 yuan/ton to - 106 yuan/ton, and the futures price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil increased by 110 yuan/ton to 1575 yuan/ton. Spot prices also showed corresponding changes [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Trends**: After the holiday, palm oil was weak, canola strengthened, domestic rapeseed oil was relatively strong, and US soybean oil declined [4][7]. - **Production and Inventory Forecasts**: According to Reuters, Malaysia's palm oil inventory in April 2025 was expected to be 1.79 million tons, a 14.8% increase from March; production was expected to be 1.62 million tons, a 16.9% increase from March; and exports were expected to be 1.1 million tons, a 9.7% increase from March. As of May 2, the total inventory of the three major oils in key domestic areas was 1.7788 million tons, an increase of 0.0169 million tons from the previous week and 0.0998 million tons from the same period last year [8][10]. - **Macro and Fundamental Analysis**: Macro - economically, the China - US economic and trade negotiations improved the market sentiment. Fundamentally, in the production - increasing cycle, production increased significantly, export demand improvement was limited, and domestic inventories were expected to rise. Palm oil might operate in a weak and volatile manner [4][11]. Industry News - **Indonesia's Biodiesel**: As of April 24, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year was 4.44 million liters, and the mandatory palm oil blending ratio in biodiesel this year was 40%, higher than last year's 35% [12]. - **India's Oil Imports**: In April, India's palm oil imports decreased by 24% month - on - month to 322,000 tons, while soybean oil imports increased by 2% to 363,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports decreased by nearly 6% to 180,000 tons. The total edible oil imports in April decreased by 11% month - on - month to 865,000 tons [12][13]. - **Myanmar's Palm Oil Market**: The wholesale reference price of palm oil in Yangon decreased from 6,735 kyats per viss (about 1.5 kg) last week to 6,700 kyats per viss. Myanmar imports about 700,000 tons of palm oil annually to meet domestic demand [13]. - **Malaysia's Palm Oil Production**: Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season was expected to be 19 million tons, with a less - than - 1% upward revision from the previous forecast. The production in both the Malaysian Peninsula and East Malaysia increased seasonally [14]. - **Indonesia's Palm Oil Production**: Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season was expected to be 48.8 million tons, unchanged from the previous forecast. Although some areas faced local floods in April, it was not expected to hinder the overall crop recovery [15]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends, price differences, import profits, and inventory changes of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and related products in Malaysia and Indonesia [16][17][18]