1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **豆粕**: Short - term consolidation. The soybean planting weather in the US is generally smooth, South America has a bumper harvest, and domestic ports and oil mills are in the inventory accumulation stage. The market is cautious about short - selling before the US bio - diesel policy is finalized [1]. - **菜粕**: Short - term oscillation. The decline in rapeseed imports from July to September, along with the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed, support the price. However, the low spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is not conducive to consumption expectations [1]. - **棕榈 oil**: Short - term bullish bias. The inventory accumulation cycle of palm oil in Southeast Asia has begun, but there are bullish factors such as the low - price procurement demand from China and India, the US bio - diesel policy, and Malaysia's B20 policy. The US threat to impose a 32% tariff on Indonesia may benefit Malaysian palm oil [1]. - **棉花**: Rebound under pressure. The sowing of US cotton is basically completed, and the export has increased significantly. Domestically, new cotton is growing well, and the actual sown area is higher than expected. The downstream orders have weakened after a short - term rebound [1]. - **红枣**: Wide - range oscillation. The new - season jujube trees are growing well, and there are no obvious signs of significant yield reduction. However, the old - crop inventory is at a historical high, and the demand is weak in the short term [1]. - **生猪**: Weak oscillation. The出栏 rhythm of leading enterprises and the entry of secondary fattening have temporarily alleviated the supply pressure, but the pig production capacity has not been cleared, and the short - term price is supported but under pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Variety 豆粕 - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2954 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan or 0.24% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2888.86 yuan/ton, down 8.28 yuan or 0.29% [2]. - **Supply**: As of July 4, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 788000 tons, a decrease of 20800 tons from the previous week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 636400 tons, a decrease of 29470 tons or 4.43% from the previous week [3]. - **Inventory**: The soybean meal inventory was 82240 tons, an increase of 13080 tons or 18.91% from the previous week [3]. 菜粕 - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2611 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan or 0.97% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2594.21 yuan/ton, up 28.42 yuan or 1.11% [4]. - **Supply**: As of July 4, the coastal area's main oil mill rapeseed inventory was 16200 tons, a decrease of 2600 tons from the previous week [7]. - **Inventory**: The rapeseed meal inventory was 460 tons, a decrease of 640 tons from the previous week; the unfulfilled contract was 4900 tons, an increase of 800 tons from the previous week [7]. 棕榈油 - **Inventory**: As of July 4, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 53510 tons, a decrease of 230 tons or 0.43% from the previous week, and an increase of 6200 tons or 13.1% from the same period last year [8]. - **Market Situation**: The US threat to impose a 32% tariff on Indonesia may lead to a shift in palm oil export shares from Indonesia to Malaysia. The unexpected inventory accumulation of Malaysian palm oil in June has a negative impact on market sentiment [8]. 棉花 - **Price Information**: The main contract CF2509 of Zhengzhou cotton increased by 0.69% to 13865 yuan/ton, ICE cotton decreased by 0.03% to 67.76 cents/pound, and the domestic spot price increased by 0.08% to 15201 yuan/ton [10]. - **International Situation**: The US cotton planting area in 2025 is 10.1 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The latest excellent - good rate is 52%, a month - on - month increase of 1%. The latest weekly export of US cotton has increased significantly. India's cotton sown area has increased by 7% year - on - year, and the sowing progress is 24%, an increase of 2% year - on - year. Brazil's new - cotton harvest is accelerating, and the output is expected to increase by 5.7% year - on - year to 3.913 million tons [10]. - **Domestic Situation**: The new cotton in Xinjiang has entered the full - bloom stage. The actual sown area of cotton in the country in 2025 is 45.803 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. The industrial and commercial inventory of domestic cotton has decreased by 132300 tons to 3.5976 million tons. The import of cotton resources in May is at a 10 - year low [11]. 红枣 - **Price Information**: The main contract CJ2601 of jujube increased by 2.12% to 10580 yuan/ton [14]. - **Production Area Situation**: The southern Xinjiang production area is in the fruit - setting period. The high - temperature situation in July has been alleviated. The three - party research in the production area shows that the fruit - setting situation is good, and there are no obvious signs of significant yield reduction [14]. - **Inventory and Demand**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 10520 tons, a decrease of 168 tons from the previous week, and higher than the same period by 4619 tons. The demand is still in the off - season, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is average [14]. 生猪 - **Price Information**: The main contract Lh2509 of live pigs increased by 1.09% to 14375 yuan/ton, and the domestic live - pig spot price decreased by 0.27% to 15000 yuan/ton [16]. - **Supply**: The national sample enterprise live - pig inventory is 37199300 tons, an increase of 11520 tons or 0.31% from the previous month; the live - pig slaughter volume is 11.2559 million heads, an increase of 167700 heads or 1.51% from the previous month. The national inventory of fertile sows is 40.42 million heads, an increase of 40000 heads or 0.1% from the previous month [15]. - **Demand**: The fat - lean price difference has widened, stimulating secondary fattening. The downstream slaughter volume and开机 rate are still at a low level, and the market demand for pork is showing a marginal decline [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - **Overall**: The report provides short - term outlooks for various agricultural products including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs, analyzing their market trends based on factors such as weather, supply - demand, and policies [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term consolidation. Consider factors like US biodiesel policy and inventory levels [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term adjustment. Pay attention to US biodiesel hearings and Sino - Canadian relations [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bullish, but be cautious when chasing the market. Monitor Malaysian palm oil inventory and US biodiesel agreements [1][10]. - **Cotton**: Rebound is under pressure. Watch for Trump's latest tariff remarks [1][14]. - **Jujube**: Wide - range oscillation. Be wary of new production - related fluctuations [1][16]. - **Live Pigs**: Weak oscillation. Focus on the slaughter rhythm [1][19]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Data**: Futures price (main contract daily closing) rose 0.41% to 2947 yuan/ton; national average spot price increased 0.10% to 2897.14 yuan/ton [2]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: US soybean planting weather is generally smooth, South American harvest is certain. Domestic ports and oil mills are in the inventory - building stage, and feed companies' restocking enthusiasm may slow down [1]. - **Outlook**: Short - term consolidation, watch for the outcome of biodiesel policy [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Data**: Futures price (main contract daily closing) rose 0.39% to 2586 yuan/ton; national average spot price remained unchanged at 2565.79 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Inventory is decreasing, but still at a relatively high level year - on - year. High tariffs and reduced imports support prices, but low spot price difference with soybean meal affects consumption [1][7]. - **Outlook**: Short - term adjustment, pay attention to US biodiesel hearings [1][7]. Palm Oil - **Market Data**: Futures price (main contract daily closing) rose 0.39% to 8678 yuan/ton; national average price increased 0.94% to 8830 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Southeast Asian inventory - building cycle has started, but there are positive factors such as Chinese and Indian low - price purchases and US biodiesel policies. US tariff on Indonesia may benefit Malaysian palm oil [1][10]. - **Outlook**: Short - term bullish, but be cautious when chasing the market. Monitor Malaysian palm oil inventory and US biodiesel agreements [1][10]. Cotton - **Market Data**: Zhengzhou cotton main contract CF2509 rose 0.33% to 13830 yuan/ton; domestic spot price decreased 0.09% to 15189 yuan/ton [11][12]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Internationally, US cotton planting is mostly completed, with high planting area and good quality. India's planting area is increasing, and Brazil's output is expected to rise. Domestically, new cotton growth is good, inventory is decreasing, and imports are shrinking. However, downstream orders are weakening [12][13][14]. - **Outlook**: Rebound is under pressure, watch for Trump's latest tariff remarks [1][14]. Jujube - **Market Data**: Main contract CJ2601 decreased 0.10% to 10425 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: New - season jujube trees are growing well, current inventory is high, and demand is weak [16]. - **Outlook**: Wide - range oscillation, be wary of new production - related fluctuations [1][16]. Live Pigs - **Market Data**: Main contract Lh2509 decreased 0.04% to 14265 yuan/ton; domestic spot price decreased 0.40% to 15000 yuan/ton [17][18]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is still in an increasing cycle, demand is marginally weakening [18]. - **Outlook**: Weak oscillation, focus on the slaughter rhythm [1][19].

美生柴阶段性利好兑现，市场等待美生 柴听证会及MPOB月报 正信期货棕榈油周报 20250707 分析师：张翠萍 投资咨询证号：Z0016574 2 3 主要观点 行情回顾 基本面分析 1目 录 CONTENTS 4 价差跟踪 PPT模板：www.1ppt.com/moban/ PPT素材：www.1ppt.com/sucai/ PPT背景：www.1ppt.com/beijing/ PPT图表：www.1ppt.com/tubiao/ PPT下载：www.1ppt.com/xiazai/ PPT教程： www.1ppt.com/powerpoint/ 资料下载：www.1ppt.com/ziliao/ 范文下载：www.1ppt.com/fanwen/ 试卷下载：www.1ppt.com/shiti/ 教案下载：www.1ppt.com/jiaoan/ PPT论坛：www.1ppt.cn PPT课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/ 语文课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yuw en/ 数学课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/shuxu e/ 英语课件：www.1ppt.com ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货油脂周报 美生柴政策利好影响还未消退 油脂短期或震荡偏强 20250622 邓丹 交易咨询号：Z0011401 从业资格号：F0300922 0769-22111252 审核：陈小国 从业资格号：F03100622 交易咨询号：Z0021111 周度观点及策略 基本面观点 产业链结构 产业链结构 ◆ 总的来看，在原油强势以及美国生柴政策利好的情况下，油脂短期或震荡偏强。 ◆ 豆油方面，未来一周爱荷华、明尼苏达州一带有比较明显的降雨，玉米带东部以及密苏里州等区域则没什么 降雨；第二周中西部各地雨势比较一般，堪萨斯等大平原中北部一带气温也比较高。总体看，未来大半个月 中西部主产区大部分区域的雨势不太有利于大豆生长。 ◆ 棕榈油方面，SPPOMA数据显示，2025年6月1-15日马棕产量减少4%。ITS和Amspec数据显示，马来西亚6月1-20 日棕榈油出口量较上月同期出口增加14.31%和10.88%。6月的马棕产量小幅下降，同时出口数据大幅增加，利 好棕榈油。 ◆ 菜油方面，近期国内菜油库存有所下降，但仍处于历史同期高位，供应充足，后期国内菜籽进口 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on gold. For silver, due to speculative capital pull - up and lack of fundamental support, it is advisable to consider long - term short positions or opportunistically go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. - For base metals, maintain a buy - on - dips approach for copper, expect aluminum prices to oscillate strongly and suggest light - position buy - on - dips, anticipate alumina prices to weaken and recommend selling on rallies, expect zinc prices to weaken and suggest selling on rallies, and for lead, suggest range - bound operations [2][3]. - In the black industry, it is advisable to wait and see for most products, with attempts to go long on螺纹 steel and焦煤 [4]. - For agricultural products, short - term soybean meal is expected to be strongly volatile, corn prices are expected to be strongly volatile, sugar prices are expected to be weakly volatile, cotton requires waiting and seeing, palm oil is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, eggs and apples require waiting and seeing, and pig prices are expected to be weakly volatile [5][6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, most products are expected to be volatile in the short - term, and for most, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts in the long - term. For crude oil, it is recommended to go short on rallies after geopolitical risks are controllable [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: International silver prices rose 2% on Tuesday, breaking through $37 per ounce, while gold continued to weaken. 43% of surveyed central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months. It is recommended to go long on gold [1]. - **Silver**: Mainly driven by speculative funds, lacking fundamental support. It is recommended to consider long - term short positions or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price oscillated. The global copper ore supply is tight, and Japan's JX Metals is considering production cuts. It is recommended to maintain a buy - on - dips approach [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the 2507 contract rose 0.27%. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a "low - inventory + weak - demand" game state, and it is suggested to buy on dips with a light position [2]. - **Alumina**: The price of the 2509 contract rose 0.28%. The fundamentals are relatively loose, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [2]. - **Zinc**: The price of the 2507 contract rose 0.30%. Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [3]. - **Lead**: The price of the 2507 contract fell 0.71%. It is recommended to operate within a range [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the 09 contract fell. It is recommended to maintain a short - bias view before production increases and consider shorting on rebounds [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price of the 07 contract fell. If the warehouse receipt registration speed exceeds expectations, consider an inverse spread strategy between the 07 and far - month contracts [3]. - **Tin**: The price oscillated weakly. It is recommended to maintain a buy - on - dips approach [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the 2510 contract oscillated horizontally. Steel supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it is advisable to wait and see and attempt to go long [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the 2509 contract oscillated horizontally. Supply and demand are marginally neutral - to - strong, but the medium - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is advisable to wait and see [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the 2509 contract oscillated horizontally. Supply and demand are relatively loose, but the fundamentals are gradually improving. It is advisable to wait and see and attempt to go long [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight CBOT soybeans rose. In the short - term, US soybeans are expected to be strongly volatile, and domestic soybeans follow international cost trends [5]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract oscillated narrowly. The supply - demand situation is tightening marginally, and prices are expected to be strongly volatile [5][6]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract closed at 5668 yuan/ton. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and prices are expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Cotton**: Overnight US cotton prices fell. It is advisable to wait and see and adopt a range - bound strategy [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Yesterday, Malaysian palm oil prices fell but remained strong. In the short - term, it is expected to be strongly volatile [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2508 contract corrected. Prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - **Pigs**: The 2509 contract oscillated narrowly. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Apples**: The main contract rose. It is advisable to wait and see [7]. Energy and Chemical Industry - **LLDPE**: The short - term is expected to be strongly volatile, and in the long - term, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts [8]. - **PVC**: It is recommended to exit short positions and wait and see, and consider selling call options above 4950 [8]. - **PTA**: Hold long positions in PX, and maintain the view of selling processing margins on rallies for PTA [8]. - **Rubber**: Prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to go short above 14000 and hold spread positions [8][9]. - **Glass**: It is recommended to sell call options at 1250 [9]. - **PP**: The short - term is expected to be strongly volatile, and in the long - term, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts [9]. - **MEG**: It is advisable to wait and see [9]. - **Crude Oil**: It is recommended to go short on rallies after geopolitical risks are controllable [9]. - **Styrene**: The short - term is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts [9][10]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options at 1400 [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by geopolitical tensions, favorable policies, and increased export volumes [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 16, palm oil futures opened at 8170.00 CNY/ton and reached a high of 8482.00 CNY, with a price increase of 3.76% [1]. - The market sentiment is bullish, with significant trading activity leading to a surge in palm oil prices [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Tensions in the Middle East have caused a spike in international crude oil prices, positively impacting the oilseed sector [1]. - The U.S. biodiesel policy expectations are favorable, boosting market sentiment [1]. - Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 27%, contributing to a rise in domestic palm oil transaction volumes and inventory levels reaching 400,000 tons [1]. Group 3: Production and Export Data - Data from SPPOMA indicates a 17.24% decrease in Malaysian palm oil production for the period of June 1-10, 2025 [1]. - Export figures for Malaysian palm oil show increases of 26.4%, 32.69%, and 8.07% compared to the previous month, according to ITS, SGS, and AmSpec data [1]. - The strong export performance in May, particularly from India, along with reduced import tariffs, has further stimulated market optimism [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The domestic oilseed market is expected to remain strong in the short term, with recommendations for palm oil support levels around 7800 CNY [1]. - Caution is advised for positions above 8500 CNY due to potential inventory accumulation [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, soybean meal is expected to show a trend of first weakening and then strengthening, mainly in a large - range volatile market under the influence of increased domestic supply, inventory accumulation of soybean meal, and speculation about US soybean weather. If the US soybean weather remains favorable and there is no definite news about the US biodiesel policy, soybean meal will continue to operate weakly [5]. - Rapeseed meal is expected to be under pressure for adjustment due to the listing of domestic new rapeseed and the decline in soybean meal prices. However, after the holiday, the impact of the new - season rapeseed listing will gradually ease. Supported by the strong international price of Canadian rapeseed, the adjustment space of rapeseed meal is expected to be limited. In May, it is also expected to be first weak and then strong [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Soybean Market - US soybean planting progress reached 8% this week, higher than 7% in the same period last year, and the rainfall outlook in the next 15 days is smooth, with a good planting prospect. South American soybean production is basically a foregone conclusion of a bumper harvest, with Brazil having a good harvest and Argentina entering the harvest stage, and the latest estimated yield of Argentine soybeans is 49 million tons [4]. - The USDA April report slightly favored the bearish side. It maintained South American and US soybean yields, adjusted non - major soybean - producing countries' yields, and global soybean import, export, and crushing data, slightly increasing the global soybean ending inventory by 1.06 million tons to 122 million tons. For US soybeans, the crushing volume increased month - on - month, resulting in a slight decrease in the ending inventory [15]. - The planting area of US soybeans in 2025 is expected to be 83.495 million acres, lower than market expectations and a 4% year - on - year decrease compared to 2024 [19]. - As of the week of April 20, the US soybean planting rate was 8%, higher than market expectations. However, according to CPC data, there is a risk of insufficient rainfall in the Great Lakes region in May [19]. 3.2 Domestic Soybean and Soybean Meal Market Supply and Inventory - In April, China entered the stage of concentrated supply of South American soybeans. Although port and soybean inventories have risen for three consecutive weeks, due to the slow customs clearance of soybeans at ports and low oil mill operating rates, soybean meal inventories are at a low level. After the May Day holiday, soybean meal supply is likely to gradually ease [5]. - As of April 25, the national port soybean inventory was 5.2028 million tons, and the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 4.5948 million tons, both increasing compared to the previous week and the same period last year [25]. - As of April 25, the weekly soybean meal inventory was 74,800 tons, a significant decrease compared to the previous week and the same period last year. The physical inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 4.35 days, less than 7.23 days in the same period last year [30]. Consumption - In the first quarter, the pig inventory increased by 2.2% year - on - year, and the inventories of eggs and meat poultry were generally stable, with an optimistic outlook for feed consumption [5]. Market Outlook - The market focus has shifted to the concentrated arrival of soybeans and US soybean planting. Before the holiday, be cautious about short - selling operations. In May, soybean meal is expected to be affected by multiple factors and show a volatile trend [5]. 3.3 Global Rapeseed Market - Canadian rapeseed has strong domestic and export demand, and it is expected to exceed the annual export forecast. The price of Canadian rapeseed has risen to the pre - trade - war level. The planting area of new - season Canadian rapeseed has decreased, but the yield has increased slightly year - on - year due to the increase in yield per unit [7]. - The estimated yield of rapeseed in the EU region in the new season is stable at around 19 million tons, and the annual import data of rapeseed has increased year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the weather conditions [7]. 3.4 Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Market Supply and Inventory - Due to the increase in the price of Canadian rapeseed, the import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed in China has dropped significantly, which may lead to a decrease in the enthusiasm for future rapeseed imports and is favorable for the long - term price expectation. Currently, the commercial inventory of rapeseed meal in China is relatively high, and there is still short - term supply pressure [8]. - As of April 25, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 255,000 tons, and the monthly crushing volume was 317,000 tons, both lower than the same period last year [42]. - As of April 29, the rapeseed meal inventory of coastal oil mills was 9,700 tons, and the total inventory of rapeseed meal in major regions across the country was 715,000 tons, showing different trends of increase and decrease compared to the previous week [46]. Consumption - The opening of the aquaculture season is beneficial to the consumption expectation of rapeseed meal. The substitution consumption of rapeseed meal has been opened up due to the expansion of the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference [8]. Market Outlook - After the holiday, the impact of the new - season rapeseed listing will gradually ease. Supported by the strong international price of Canadian rapeseed, the adjustment space of rapeseed meal is expected to be limited. In May, it is expected to be first weak and then strong [9]. 3.5 Feed Market - From January to February 2025, the national industrial feed production was 49.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. The prices of feed products decreased significantly year - on - year. The proportion of corn in compound feed was 47.2%, and the proportion of soybean meal in compound feed and concentrated feed was 13.3% [54]. 3.6 Livestock and Poultry Breeding Market - In the first quarter, the national pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%. The inventory of breeding sows was 40.39 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 1.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 1% [57]. - In April, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 145.34 yuan per head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 58.8 yuan per head, showing different trends compared to March [64]. - In April, the egg - laying hen breeding profit rebounded month - on - month, reaching 2.26 yuan per bird as of April 24. The white - feather broiler breeding profit decreased month - on - month, reaching - 0.12 yuan per bird as of April 27 [67].