| 品种 | 核心观点 主要逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 美豆本周优良率环比下降，但收获开启，利多支撑不足。本周豆粕库存环比增加， | | | 豆粕 | 国内短期供应充足。前日豆粕整理，节前基本面偏空，看多追多操作需谨慎。由于 短线下跌 | | | ★ | 中美贸易关税问题，豆粕持续下行空间预计暂有限。假期关注 | 9 月底美豆季度库存 | | | 数据，美生柴及美豆收获季下中美贸易进展。 | | | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | | 菜粕 | 调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日，但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有 短线下跌 | | | ★ | 限。菜粕走势暂以跟随豆粕趋势为主，关注中加贸易进展。 | | | | 美生柴政策变数频发，拖累棕榈油调整，考虑美豆油端近期利空因素较多，或抑制 | | | 棕榈油 | 本月棕榈油表现。此外，市场预计马棕榈油 9 短线延续整理 | 月将继续累库，或抑制双节前表现。 | | ★ | 短期偏弱震荡行情对待。关注马棕榈油本月出口情况以及美豆油端表现。 | | | 豆油 | 美生柴政策变数 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美豆本周优良率环比下降，但收获开启，利多支撑不足。本周豆粕库存环比增加， | | | | 豆粕 | | 国内短期供应充足。前日豆粕整理，短线反弹对待，节前看多追多操作需谨慎。由 | | ★ | 短线下跌 | 于中美贸易关税问题，豆粕持续下行空间预计暂有限。假期关注 9 月底美豆季度库 | | 存数据，美生柴及美豆收获季下中美贸易进展。 | | | | 菜粕 | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | 调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日，但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有 | 短线下跌 | | | ★ | | 限。菜粕走势暂以跟随豆粕趋势为主，关注中加贸易进展。 | | 美生柴政策变数频发，拖累棕榈油调整，考虑美豆油端近期利空因素较多，或抑制 | | | | 棕榈油 | 短线延续调整 | 本月棕榈油表现。此外，市场预计马棕榈油 9 月将继续累库，或抑制双节前表现。 | | ★ | | 短期偏弱震荡行情对待。关注马棕榈油本月出口情况以及美豆油端表现。 | | 豆油 | 短线延续调整 ...

机构 核心观点 弘业期货（001236） 豆油产量增加，库存仍有压力 迈科期货 豆油震荡调整 金信期货 豆油震荡偏空对待 9月26日夜盘，豆油期货主力合约呈现震荡运行，最低下探至8142.00元。截止收盘，豆油主力合约报 8178.00元，跌幅0.17%。 弘业期货：豆油产量增加，库存仍有压力 豆油期货主力小幅下跌0.17%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 阿根廷恢复出口税，中国未采购美豆，美生柴政策有不确定性。国内油厂开机率上升，豆油产量增加， 库存仍有压力。 迈科期货：豆油震荡调整 阿根廷重新开始对本国的大豆与豆油、豆粕征收关税，其大豆与豆油在国际市场上的竞争力下降， CBOT大豆与豆油上涨，进口商采购成本上升，提振国内豆油期货。从国内豆油的基本面来看，距离长 假剩余三个工作日，小包装备货已经收尾，市场很快进入节假模式，购销皆少。工厂豆油库存维持在高 位，9-10月大豆进口量依旧庞大，工厂开机率高，豆油供应充足。现货随盘上涨，基差报价波动空间不 大。近期工厂成交量一般，出货为主。结论：震荡调整，主力参考豆油8000-8300。 金信期货：豆油震荡偏空对待 9月12日，国内豆油商业库存126万吨，周 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | | | 美豆本周优良率环比下降，但收获开启，利多支撑不足。本周豆粕库存环比增加， | | 豆粕 | 国内短期供应充足。前日豆粕整理，短线反弹对待，节前看多追多操作需谨慎。由 短线下跌 | | ★ | 于中美贸易关税问题，豆粕持续下行空间预计暂有限。假期关注 9 月底美豆季度库 | | | 存数据，美生柴及美豆收获季下中美贸易进展。 | | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | 菜粕 | 调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日，但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有 短线下跌 | | ★ | 限。菜粕走势暂以跟随豆粕趋势为主，关注中加贸易进展。 | | | 美生柴政策变数频发，拖累棕榈油调整，考虑美豆油端近期利空因素较多，或抑制 | | 棕榈油 | 本月棕榈油表现。此外，市场预计马棕榈油 9 月将继续累库，或抑制双节前表现。 短线延续调整 | | ★ | 短期偏弱震荡行情对待。关注马棕榈油本月出口情况以及美豆油端表现。 | | 豆油 | 美生柴政策变数频出叠加美豆收获在即，对豆油端或有承压。国内现货双节备 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 本周豆粕库存环比增加，国内短期供应充足。阿根廷出口降税至零叠加美豆收获， | | 豆粕 | | 利空美豆及国内豆粕，前日豆粕小幅整理，尚未扭转短线短期颓势，叠加节前基本 | | ★ | 短线下跌 | 面偏空，看多观望为宜。由于中美贸易关税问题，豆粕持续下行空间预计暂有限。 | | | | 假期关注美生柴及美豆收获季下中美贸易进展。 | | 菜粕 | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | | 短线下跌 | 调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日，但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有 | | ★ | | 限。菜粕走势暂以跟随豆粕趋势为主，关注中加贸易进展。 | | 棕榈油 | | 美生柴政策变数频发，拖累棕榈油调整，考虑美豆油端近期利空因素较多，或抑制 本月棕榈油表现。此外，市场预计马棕榈油 9 月将继续累库，或抑制双节前表现。 | | | 短线延续调整 | | | ★ | | 短期偏弱调整行情依旧，看多谨慎。关注马棕榈油本月出口情况以及美豆油端表现。 | | 豆油 | 短线延 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 本周豆粕库存环比增加，国内短期供应充足，美豆收获临近令豆粕承压，但由于中 | | 豆粕 | | 美贸易问题支持，豆粕短线持续下跌空间亦有限，暂以大区间行情对待，隔夜豆粕 | | ★ | 短线下跌 | 低开下行。短线有回撤 2930 元方向确认支持的可能。节前看多操作需谨慎对待。 | | | | 基本面偏弱。关注美豆收获季下中美贸易进展。 | | | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | 菜粕 | 短线下跌 | 调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日，但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有 | | ★ | | 限。菜粕走势暂以跟随豆粕趋势为主，关注中加贸易进展。 | | | | 印尼及马来生柴政策利多棕榈油市场消费预期，并且 9 月中印存在采买需求。基本 | | 棕榈油 | | 面展望偏多，逢低看多思路为主。但美生柴政策变数频发，拖累棕榈油调整，考虑 | | ★ | 短线延续调整 | 美豆油端近期利空因素较多，或抑制本月棕榈油表现。隔夜棕榈油下破 9200 元， | | | | ...

1 豆粕：美豆渐进成熟收获 价格承压调整 | 期货价格(主力日收盘) | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 元/吨 | 3014 | 2993 | 21 | 0. 70% | | | 现货价格 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 全国均价 | 元/吨 | 3031. 71 | 3025. 43 | 6. 28 | 0. 21% | | | 张家港 | 元/吨 | 2950 | 2950 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 杂粕现货均价 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 間趋势图 | | 花生粕 | 元/吨 | 3287.5 | 3287. 5 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 葵花粕 | 元/吨 | 2257.5 | 2251.25 | 6.25 | 0. 28% | | | 芝麻粕 | 元/吨 | 3750 | 3750 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 棕榈粕 | 元/吨 | 1433. 33 | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 周六 USDA 公布 9 月供需报告，美豆产量及期末库存环比调增。但全球大豆期末库 | | 豆粕 | | 存环比调降。报告对美豆略偏空。本周豆粕库存环比增加，美豆优良率环比调减， | | ★ | 短线下跌 | 昨日豆粕收跌，短期偏空承压走势，但由于中美贸易问题支持，豆粕短线持续下跌 | | | | 空间暂有限，暂以大区间行情对待。关注美豆收获季下中美贸易进展。 | | | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | 菜粕 | 短线下跌 | 调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日，但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有 | | ★ | | 限。菜粕走势暂以跟随豆粕趋势为主，关注中加贸易进展。 | | | | 印尼及马来生柴政策利多棕榈油市场消费预期，并且 9 月中印存在采买需求。基本 | | 棕榈油 | 短线整理 | 面展望偏多，逢低看多思路为主。但美生柴政策变数频发，拖累棕榈油调整，考虑 | | ★ | | 美豆油端近期承压较多，或抑制本月棕榈油表现。关注逢低短多机会。关注马棕榈 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **豆粕**: Short - term consolidation. The soybean planting weather in the US is generally smooth, South America has a bumper harvest, and domestic ports and oil mills are in the inventory accumulation stage. The market is cautious about short - selling before the US bio - diesel policy is finalized [1]. - **菜粕**: Short - term oscillation. The decline in rapeseed imports from July to September, along with the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed, support the price. However, the low spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is not conducive to consumption expectations [1]. - **棕榈 oil**: Short - term bullish bias. The inventory accumulation cycle of palm oil in Southeast Asia has begun, but there are bullish factors such as the low - price procurement demand from China and India, the US bio - diesel policy, and Malaysia's B20 policy. The US threat to impose a 32% tariff on Indonesia may benefit Malaysian palm oil [1]. - **棉花**: Rebound under pressure. The sowing of US cotton is basically completed, and the export has increased significantly. Domestically, new cotton is growing well, and the actual sown area is higher than expected. The downstream orders have weakened after a short - term rebound [1]. - **红枣**: Wide - range oscillation. The new - season jujube trees are growing well, and there are no obvious signs of significant yield reduction. However, the old - crop inventory is at a historical high, and the demand is weak in the short term [1]. - **生猪**: Weak oscillation. The出栏 rhythm of leading enterprises and the entry of secondary fattening have temporarily alleviated the supply pressure, but the pig production capacity has not been cleared, and the short - term price is supported but under pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Variety 豆粕 - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2954 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan or 0.24% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2888.86 yuan/ton, down 8.28 yuan or 0.29% [2]. - **Supply**: As of July 4, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 788000 tons, a decrease of 20800 tons from the previous week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 636400 tons, a decrease of 29470 tons or 4.43% from the previous week [3]. - **Inventory**: The soybean meal inventory was 82240 tons, an increase of 13080 tons or 18.91% from the previous week [3]. 菜粕 - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2611 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan or 0.97% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2594.21 yuan/ton, up 28.42 yuan or 1.11% [4]. - **Supply**: As of July 4, the coastal area's main oil mill rapeseed inventory was 16200 tons, a decrease of 2600 tons from the previous week [7]. - **Inventory**: The rapeseed meal inventory was 460 tons, a decrease of 640 tons from the previous week; the unfulfilled contract was 4900 tons, an increase of 800 tons from the previous week [7]. 棕榈油 - **Inventory**: As of July 4, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 53510 tons, a decrease of 230 tons or 0.43% from the previous week, and an increase of 6200 tons or 13.1% from the same period last year [8]. - **Market Situation**: The US threat to impose a 32% tariff on Indonesia may lead to a shift in palm oil export shares from Indonesia to Malaysia. The unexpected inventory accumulation of Malaysian palm oil in June has a negative impact on market sentiment [8]. 棉花 - **Price Information**: The main contract CF2509 of Zhengzhou cotton increased by 0.69% to 13865 yuan/ton, ICE cotton decreased by 0.03% to 67.76 cents/pound, and the domestic spot price increased by 0.08% to 15201 yuan/ton [10]. - **International Situation**: The US cotton planting area in 2025 is 10.1 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The latest excellent - good rate is 52%, a month - on - month increase of 1%. The latest weekly export of US cotton has increased significantly. India's cotton sown area has increased by 7% year - on - year, and the sowing progress is 24%, an increase of 2% year - on - year. Brazil's new - cotton harvest is accelerating, and the output is expected to increase by 5.7% year - on - year to 3.913 million tons [10]. - **Domestic Situation**: The new cotton in Xinjiang has entered the full - bloom stage. The actual sown area of cotton in the country in 2025 is 45.803 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. The industrial and commercial inventory of domestic cotton has decreased by 132300 tons to 3.5976 million tons. The import of cotton resources in May is at a 10 - year low [11]. 红枣 - **Price Information**: The main contract CJ2601 of jujube increased by 2.12% to 10580 yuan/ton [14]. - **Production Area Situation**: The southern Xinjiang production area is in the fruit - setting period. The high - temperature situation in July has been alleviated. The three - party research in the production area shows that the fruit - setting situation is good, and there are no obvious signs of significant yield reduction [14]. - **Inventory and Demand**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 10520 tons, a decrease of 168 tons from the previous week, and higher than the same period by 4619 tons. The demand is still in the off - season, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is average [14]. 生猪 - **Price Information**: The main contract Lh2509 of live pigs increased by 1.09% to 14375 yuan/ton, and the domestic live - pig spot price decreased by 0.27% to 15000 yuan/ton [16]. - **Supply**: The national sample enterprise live - pig inventory is 37199300 tons, an increase of 11520 tons or 0.31% from the previous month; the live - pig slaughter volume is 11.2559 million heads, an increase of 167700 heads or 1.51% from the previous month. The national inventory of fertile sows is 40.42 million heads, an increase of 40000 heads or 0.1% from the previous month [15]. - **Demand**: The fat - lean price difference has widened, stimulating secondary fattening. The downstream slaughter volume and开机 rate are still at a low level, and the market demand for pork is showing a marginal decline [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - **Overall**: The report provides short - term outlooks for various agricultural products including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs, analyzing their market trends based on factors such as weather, supply - demand, and policies [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term consolidation. Consider factors like US biodiesel policy and inventory levels [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term adjustment. Pay attention to US biodiesel hearings and Sino - Canadian relations [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bullish, but be cautious when chasing the market. Monitor Malaysian palm oil inventory and US biodiesel agreements [1][10]. - **Cotton**: Rebound is under pressure. Watch for Trump's latest tariff remarks [1][14]. - **Jujube**: Wide - range oscillation. Be wary of new production - related fluctuations [1][16]. - **Live Pigs**: Weak oscillation. Focus on the slaughter rhythm [1][19]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Data**: Futures price (main contract daily closing) rose 0.41% to 2947 yuan/ton; national average spot price increased 0.10% to 2897.14 yuan/ton [2]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: US soybean planting weather is generally smooth, South American harvest is certain. Domestic ports and oil mills are in the inventory - building stage, and feed companies' restocking enthusiasm may slow down [1]. - **Outlook**: Short - term consolidation, watch for the outcome of biodiesel policy [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Data**: Futures price (main contract daily closing) rose 0.39% to 2586 yuan/ton; national average spot price remained unchanged at 2565.79 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Inventory is decreasing, but still at a relatively high level year - on - year. High tariffs and reduced imports support prices, but low spot price difference with soybean meal affects consumption [1][7]. - **Outlook**: Short - term adjustment, pay attention to US biodiesel hearings [1][7]. Palm Oil - **Market Data**: Futures price (main contract daily closing) rose 0.39% to 8678 yuan/ton; national average price increased 0.94% to 8830 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Southeast Asian inventory - building cycle has started, but there are positive factors such as Chinese and Indian low - price purchases and US biodiesel policies. US tariff on Indonesia may benefit Malaysian palm oil [1][10]. - **Outlook**: Short - term bullish, but be cautious when chasing the market. Monitor Malaysian palm oil inventory and US biodiesel agreements [1][10]. Cotton - **Market Data**: Zhengzhou cotton main contract CF2509 rose 0.33% to 13830 yuan/ton; domestic spot price decreased 0.09% to 15189 yuan/ton [11][12]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Internationally, US cotton planting is mostly completed, with high planting area and good quality. India's planting area is increasing, and Brazil's output is expected to rise. Domestically, new cotton growth is good, inventory is decreasing, and imports are shrinking. However, downstream orders are weakening [12][13][14]. - **Outlook**: Rebound is under pressure, watch for Trump's latest tariff remarks [1][14]. Jujube - **Market Data**: Main contract CJ2601 decreased 0.10% to 10425 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: New - season jujube trees are growing well, current inventory is high, and demand is weak [16]. - **Outlook**: Wide - range oscillation, be wary of new production - related fluctuations [1][16]. Live Pigs - **Market Data**: Main contract Lh2509 decreased 0.04% to 14265 yuan/ton; domestic spot price decreased 0.40% to 15000 yuan/ton [17][18]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is still in an increasing cycle, demand is marginally weakening [18]. - **Outlook**: Weak oscillation, focus on the slaughter rhythm [1][19].