Group 1 - The palm oil futures market is showing a strong upward trend, with the main contract opening at 8698.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 8850.00 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.50% [1] - The MPOB report for October indicates that Malaysian palm oil production increased by 11.02% month-on-month, exports rose by 18.58%, and inventory grew by 4.4%, slightly above market expectations, suggesting a bearish outlook [1] - Current market sentiment is mixed, with some analysts noting that while there is a seasonal trend of inventory reduction, the palm oil market is entering a production cut cycle, leading to a cautious outlook on price stability [1][2] Group 2 - The analysis from Guotou Anxin Futures highlights that despite a decrease in palm oil prices, the significant increase in supply has led to a rise in inventory levels, maintaining a bearish sentiment in the market [2] - High-frequency data for early November shows that Malaysian palm oil production continues to grow, while export demand has declined, indicating ongoing pressure on prices due to high inventory levels [2] - The market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, with prices expected to remain in a sideways trend until clearer supply-demand signals emerge [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Lacks continuous bullish drivers. Brazilian rainfall is expected to be good in the next 15 days. The result of the China - US meeting shows that the issue of US soybean import tariffs has not been effectively resolved. It continued to trade in a narrow range at a high level yesterday. Due to the lack of bullish drivers, be cautious when chasing long positions. Pay attention to the planting weather of Brazilian soybeans [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Be cautious when chasing long positions. High port inventories and the off - season of downstream consumption put pressure on the market. However, the unresolved China - Canada trade issue still supports far - month contracts, while near - month contracts are weak. Although rapeseed meal rose yesterday, the rebound space of the main and near - month contracts may be limited [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term decline. It has entered a stage of weakening supply - demand. It is expected to continue to build inventories in October and November in Malaysia. But import may be insufficient in December and January due to negative import margins, and prices rebounded at the end of the inventory - building hype in October [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term consolidation. There is a lack of bullish support in the US soybean oil market. Domestic soybean oil inventories are higher than the five - year average, with sufficient short - term supply. Although it rose yesterday, there is no strong bullish driver for now [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term stop - falling consolidation. Low oil mill operating rates, the mentality of hoarding and price - holding in the market, and the consumption peak season have led to a stop - falling rebound. However, the short - term weakness has not been completely reversed [1]. - **Cotton**: Upward pressure. The increase in supply from the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries puts pressure on prices. Although Brazil is accelerating exports, the Indian MSP policy provides some support. Domestically, the new cotton harvest is almost complete, and the commercial inventory has recovered, increasing spot pressure. Downstream demand is weak, and there is resistance to upward movement [1]. - **Red Dates**: Cautiously bearish. With large - scale harvest, the new - season output is becoming more certain. High old - season inventories and limited acceptance of new products by downstream may lead to weakening prices. Be cautious when short - selling and pay attention to the purchase price and progress [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Be vigilant against rebounds. The supply pressure in Q4 remains high as the supply was postponed to December by second - fattening in October. The demand is gradually stabilizing. It is recommended to short on rebounds for near - month contracts and be vigilant against the rebound risk of the 01 contract. Consider the 03 contract and potential reverse - spread opportunities [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Price Data**: The main contract's closing price was 3068 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.16% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3117.43 yuan/ton, up 25.14 yuan or 0.81% [2]. - **Inventory Data**: As of October 31, 2025, national port soybean inventories were 962.9 million tons, down 10.20 million tons from last week and up 288.44 million tons from last year. 125 oil mills' soybean inventories were 710.79 million tons, down 40.50 million tons or 5.39% from last week and up 160.05 million tons or 29.06% from last year. The soybean meal inventory was 115.3 million tons, up 9.84 million tons or 9.33% from last week and up 16.89 million tons or 17.16% from last year [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Data**: The main contract's closing price was 2549 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 0.47% from the previous day. The national average spot price remained unchanged at 2636.32 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Data**: As of October 31, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventories were 0 million tons, down 0.6 million tons from last week. Rapeseed meal inventories were 0.71 million tons, unchanged from last week, and unexecuted contracts were 0.71 million tons, down 0.3 million tons from last week [4]. Palm Oil - **Inventory Data**: As of October 31, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions was 59.28 million tons, down 1.43 million tons or 2.36% from last week and up 8.74 million tons or 17.29% from last year [8]. - **Production and Export Data**: From October 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 5.55% month - on - month, and exports increased by 5.19% - 26.54% depending on different sources [8]. Cotton - **Price Data**: The main contract's closing price was 13605 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 14820 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.03% [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The national cotton commercial inventory was 232.61 million tons, up 48 million tons from the previous value. The Xinjiang cotton commercial inventory was 183.9 million tons, up 48 million tons [9]. - **Production Data**: In the US, 73 million tons of new cotton have been inspected, with a progress of about 25%. Domestically, the new cotton picking progress is 87.1%, the ginning volume exceeds 208 million tons, and the selling progress is 14.2% [10][11]. Red Dates - **Price Data**: The main contract's closing price was 9705 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 0.36% from the previous day. The spot prices in different regions remained mostly stable [13]. - **Inventory Data**: The physical inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9541 tons, up 193 tons from the previous value [13]. Live Pigs - **Price Data**: The main contract's closing price was 11940 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day. The national average spot price of live pigs was 12030 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or 0.50% [16]. - **Inventory and Output Data**: The national sample enterprise's live pig inventory was 3844.62 million tons, up 5.61 million tons or 0.15% from the previous month. The monthly output was 1196.53 million tons, up 126.77 million tons or 11.85% [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report covers multiple futures varieties, including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs. The core views for each variety are as follows: - Soybean meal: Short - term oscillation. Concerned about Sino - US trade and Brazilian soybean planting weather [1][3]. - Rapeseed meal: Short - term oscillation. Focus on Sino - Canadian trade and Sino - US trade negotiation results [1][5]. - Palm oil: Short - term decline. Existing short positions can be held, but new short positions should be taken with caution [1][7]. - Soybean oil: Short - term consolidation. Pay attention to US biodiesel policy and Sino - US trade [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Short - term stop - falling consolidation. Monitor Sino - Canadian trade progress [1]. - Cotton: Short - term correction. Be wary of the risk of a slight decline during the pressure transfer to inland areas [1][11]. - Jujube: Cautiously bearish. Short - selling operations should be carried out based on purchase price changes and progress [1][13]. - Live pigs: Be vigilant against rebounds. Consider short - selling on rebounds for near - month contracts and pay attention to the 03 contract [1][16]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: As of October 31, 2025, national port soybean inventory decreased, oil - mill soybean inventory decreased, and soybean meal inventory increased. Spot prices showed a slight decline, and the futures price also decreased slightly [2][3]. - **Analysis Logic**: Good rainfall in Brazil in the next 15 days, reduced sales pressure on oil mills, and the current tariff situation still supports the cost of domestic soybean meal. The main contract is expected to be in a large - range market [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: As of October 31, coastal oil - mill菜籽 inventory was 0, rapeseed meal inventory remained unchanged, and unexecuted contracts decreased. Futures prices rose slightly, and spot prices also increased [4][5]. - **Analysis Logic**: High port inventory and off - season consumption pressure the market, but the unresolved Sino - Canadian trade issue supports far - month contracts. The recent statement from Canada has cooled the expectation of tariff improvement [1][5]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: As of October 31, 2025, the national commercial inventory decreased. Futures and spot prices both declined, and the trading volume increased [6][7]. - **Analysis Logic**: Palm oil has entered a stage of weakening supply - demand. Malaysia is expected to continue to accumulate inventory in October and November. Indonesian production increase and market doubts about B50 are negative factors [1][7]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: In the US, new cotton is being harvested; in India, new cotton is being listed; in Pakistan, new cotton has been listed; in Brazil, the processing progress is slower than last year. In China, new cotton is almost harvested, and commercial inventory has recovered to the same - period level [8][9][10]. - **Analysis Logic**: The increase in supply from the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries pressures the market, but India's MSP provides some support. In China, the cost of new cotton supports the bottom, but the increase in inventory and weak demand limit the upward movement [1][11]. Jujube - **Market Situation**: Xinjiang jujubes are concentrated for harvest. The expected reduction in production has been adjusted, and inventory has increased. Futures prices have fallen significantly, and spot prices are relatively stable [12][13]. - **Analysis Logic**: The large - scale harvest makes the new - season output clearer. High - inventory old jujubes and low acceptance of new jujubes in the market lead to an expected weakening of the market [1][13]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: In October, large - scale enterprises over - sold, and the planned output in November decreased. The inventory of sample enterprises increased, and the output decreased. Futures prices showed mixed trends, and spot prices decreased slightly [14][15]. - **Analysis Logic**: The supply pressure in Q4 remains high due to the postponed supply from second - fattening in October. The market should be vigilant against short - term rebounds, and pay attention to the 03 contract and anti - arbitrage opportunities [1][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Short - term investment ratings for different varieties include: short - term decline for palm oil and rapeseed oil; short - term adjustment for soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean oil; and a cautious bearish view on jujubes, with a warning of a potential short - term rebound for live pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term fluctuations. Brazilian rainfall is expected to recover in the next 15 days. The current tariff situation has a slight adjustment, and the cost of domestic soybean meal has some support. The main contract is in a large - range market below the previous high. After a short - term rebound, it needs to be sorted out. Be cautious about chasing long positions [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term fluctuations. High port inventory and the off - season of downstream consumption put pressure on the market, but the unresolved Sino - Canadian trade issue supports the far - month contracts. Recently, it has rebounded following soybean meal. Be cautious about chasing long positions [1] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term decline. It has entered a stage of weakening supply - demand, with expected continuous inventory accumulation in Malaysia in October and November. Indonesian production increase and market doubts about B50 are negative factors. Hold existing short positions with caution [1] - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term adjustment. The harvest of US soybeans and the lack of progress in US biodiesel policy provide no positive support. Domestic soybean oil inventory is higher than the five - year average, and supply is sufficient in the short term. Follow palm oil's decline. Be cautious about short - selling [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term decline. Low oil mill operating rates, market's reluctance to sell and price - holding mentality, and the consumption peak season are offset by the lack of positive drivers from the Sino - Canadian meeting. The market is falling due to risk aversion [1] - **Cotton**: Weak and volatile. New cotton from the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries increases supply pressure. Although Brazil is accelerating exports, India's MSP provides some support. Domestically, new cotton is about to be harvested, inventory has recovered, and downstream demand is weak. There is resistance to upward movement [1] - **Jujubes**: Cautiously bearish. Large - scale harvesting is coming, and the market is highly volatile due to capital. The future fundamentals are expected to be loose. Short - term, suggest reducing short positions as the premium is being repaired [1] - **Live Pigs**: Be wary of short - term rebounds. The supply pressure in December is expected to increase due to the delayed supply from second - fattening in October. The demand is gradually stabilizing. On the market, it is recommended to short on rebounds for near - month contracts and beware of the rebound risk of the 01 contract [1] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Market Data**: As of October 31, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.629 million tons, a decrease of 102,000 tons from last week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 7.1079 million tons, a decrease of 405,000 tons from last week. The soybean meal inventory was 1.153 million tons, an increase of 98,400 tons from last week. The physical inventory days of domestic feed enterprises' soybean meal were 8.02 days, an increase of 0.06 days from October 24 [3] - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract of soybean meal was 3,026 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,103.71 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan from the previous day [2] Rapeseed Meal - **Market Data**: As of October 31, the coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from last week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 7,100 tons, unchanged from last week; the unexecuted contracts were 7,100 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from last week [5] - **Market Situation**: The global rapeseed production has recovered this year. In China, rapeseed meal is in a destocking state, but the demand is in the off - season due to the end of the aquaculture season [5] Palm Oil - **Market Data**: As of October 31, 2025, the national key area's commercial inventory of palm oil was 592,800 tons, a decrease of 14,300 tons from last week. The production in Malaysia from October 1 - 31 increased by 5.55% compared to the same period last month, and the export volume increased by 5.19% [8] - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract of palm oil was 8,664 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan from the previous day. The national average price was 8,663 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan from the previous day [6] Cotton - **International Situation**: In the US, new cotton is being harvested, and precipitation in major cotton - growing areas will decrease in early November. In India, the MSP acquisition has been delayed due to heavy rainfall, and the daily new cotton listing volume is about 12,000 tons. As of mid - October, the new cotton listing volume in Pakistan was 588,000 tons, a 22% year - on - year increase [9] - **Domestic Situation**: The domestic new cotton picking progress is 87.1%, the inspection volume exceeds 1.93 million tons, and the sales progress is 14.2%. The Xinjiang mainstream machine - picked seed cotton price has risen to 6.32 yuan/kg, and the cumulative average price of lint cotton has increased to around 14,500 yuan/ton. The downstream demand has not changed much [10] Jujubes - **Production Area Situation**: Large - scale harvesting is expected. Merchants in Xinjiang are actively purchasing, and the final production reduction situation remains to be seen. The inventory of 36 sample points has increased to 9,348 tons, a month - on - month increase of 245 tons [14] - **Sales Area Situation**: Large - scale arrivals have not started yet. The price of sporadic goods is significantly higher than the same - grade goods in the same period last year. The market is in a wait - and - see state, and consumption has not started significantly [14] Live Pigs - **Market Data**: The national sample enterprise's live pig inventory in October was 38.3901 million, a 1.5% increase from the previous month; the monthly slaughter volume was 10.6976 million heads, a 4.29% decrease from the previous month. The national average price of live pigs was 12,430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan from the previous day [16] - **Market Situation**: In October, large - scale enterprises accelerated slaughter, and the planned slaughter volume in November decreased by 2.54% compared to the actual slaughter volume in October. The demand of downstream slaughtering has increased, and the inventory situation has stabilized [17]

Core Viewpoint - Soybean oil futures are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the main contract dropping by 0.32% to 8122.00 yuan, indicating a bearish market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The main soybean oil contract is trading in a range of 7900-8300 yuan, reflecting a consolidation phase in the market [2][4]. - The supply pressure is increasing due to the accelerated harvesting of soybeans in the U.S., while the domestic soybean oil inventory remains high compared to the five-year average, indicating ample short-term supply [2][3]. - The palm oil market is under pressure due to insufficient cost-effectiveness and rising inventories, while canola oil is supported by a significant decrease in domestic canola seed stocks and low operating rates of oil mills [2][3]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Ruida Futures emphasizes that the cost side of soybean oil remains relatively firm, suggesting a potential support for prices despite high inventories [5]. - Zhonghui Futures advises caution in pursuing short positions in soybean oil, highlighting the lack of bullish support from U.S. soybean oil and the need to monitor developments in U.S. biofuel policies and Sino-U.S. trade negotiations [3][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, the price of soybean meal is expected to stop falling, stabilize, and rebound due to weather speculation in Brazil. However, considering the weak La Nina in winter, the January contract of soybean meal is unlikely to show a bullish trend. There is also a risk of decline if there is a Sino - US trade agreement. Short - term phased trading is recommended, and long - position operations require careful position and risk management [5][7][109]. - Rapeseed meal has been mainly following the trend of soybean meal due to high inventory pressure. There may be opportunities to go long on far - month rapeseed meal contracts considering the low inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in domestic coastal crushing plants and the stagnant China - Canada trade. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of China - Canada trade, as an improvement in the relationship would be unfavorable for far - month contracts of rapeseed products [9][112]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Review of the Third - Quarter Market of Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Soybean Meal**: In Q3, the price of domestic soybean meal first rose and then fell. It reached a new high for the year in mid - August due to factors such as the Sino - US trade tariff increase, weather premium during the US soybean planting period, the anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed by China, and the significant reduction in the US soybean planting area in the USDA report. Subsequently, the price declined due to good weather for US soybean planting, high port inventory of rapeseed meal in China, and other factors [15]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In Q3, the price of rapeseed meal first increased and then decreased. It reached a new high for the year in mid - August after China announced a deposit system for Canadian rapeseed. Subsequently, high port inventory of imported granular rapeseed meal, concerns about the improvement of China - Canada trade tariffs, and the resumption of China - Australia rapeseed trade suppressed the price [16]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Supply and Demand Situation of the International Soybean Market - **Global Climate**: There is a 71% probability of La Nina occurring from October to December 2025, which may continue until February 2026, with a probability dropping to 54% [21]. - **Global Soybean Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: The global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to decline. As of the September USDA report, it was 0.29, lower than last year's 0.3 but still above the median of the past decade. There are uncertainties in the future inventory - to - consumption ratio, especially if the Sino - US negotiation remains unresolved, the inventory - to - consumption ratio of Brazilian soybeans may improve significantly [24]. - **US Soybeans**: The planting area of US soybeans decreased, but the yield is expected to be high. The USDA adjusted the planting area and yield estimates, and as of September 28, 2025, the soybean harvest rate was 19%, the excellent - good rate was 62%, and the defoliation rate was 79% [28]. - **US Biodiesel**: In August, the EPA's handling of the backlog of small refinery exemption applications was positive for market confidence. However, in September, differences over the exemption issue led to a delay in the plan, increasing market uncertainty [29][30]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: The 2025/26 production is expected to increase slightly year - on - year. The planting started in mid - September, but there is a risk of insufficient rainfall in the southern region. As of September 27, the sowing rate was 3.5%. The export volume in September was expected to be 675 tons, and the export volume of soybean meal was expected to be 637 tons [33][34][35]. - **Argentine Soybeans**: The 2025/26 production is expected to decrease slightly. The planting area is expected to decline by 4.3% to 17.6 million hectares, and the production is expected to be 47 million tons. The government temporarily removed export taxes on soybeans and related products from September 22 to October 31 or until the export volume reached $7 billion [40][43]. - **Global Rapeseed**: The global rapeseed production has recovered, with an output of 90.96 million tons in 2025, higher than last year's 85.73 million tons. Canada's rapeseed production is also expected to increase, reaching 20 million tons [47]. - **China's Anti - Dumping Investigation on Canadian Rapeseed**: China's Ministry of Commerce imposed a 75.8% deposit on Canadian rapeseed imports starting from August 14, 2025, and extended the investigation period to March 9, 2026, due to the complexity of the case [49][50]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Supply Situation of the Domestic Oilseed Market - **Soybean Imports**: In August 2025, China imported 12.279 million tons of soybeans, a year - on - year increase of 1.11%. From January to August, the cumulative import volume was 73.312 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The main sources of imports were Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and the US [56]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory and Crushing**: As of September 26, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.385 million tons, and the inventory of 125 oil mills was 7.1991 million tons. The soybean meal inventory of 125 oil mills was 1.1892 million tons. In September, the national soybean crushing volume was 9.9354 million tons [58][60][62]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Supply from October to December**: From October to December, the soybean import supply is expected to be sufficient, and the supply of soybean meal in Q4 is also expected to be good [64]. - **Soybean Meal Basis and Spread**: In Q3, the soybean meal basis rebounded from a low level but remained in a negative state. As of October 9, the basis for the January and May contracts was - 39 yuan/ton and 145 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 1 spread of soybean meal was 184 yuan/ton as of October 9 [68][71]. - **Rapeseed Market Supply**: In August 2025, the rapeseed import volume was 246,600 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to August was 2.3306 million tons. As of October 3, the coastal oil mill rapeseed inventory was 6,000 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 26,800 tons. The basis of rapeseed meal in East China was 25 yuan/ton as of October 9 [74][78][86]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Price Difference**: In Q3, the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures was relatively stable, while the spot price difference rebounded. As of October 9, the futures price difference was 504 yuan/ton, and the spot price difference was 440 yuan/ton [89]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Domestic Downstream Livestock and Poultry Market - **National Feed Production**: In August 2025, the national industrial feed production was 29.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. From January to August, the cumulative production was 216.18 million tons, higher than the same period last year [90][92]. - **Pig Market**: As of the end of June 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million heads. In August, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 million heads. The piglet sales volume in August was 547,100 heads. The pig farming profit declined in Q3 [95][97][99]. - **Egg and Broiler Chicken Farming**: The egg - laying hen farming profit decreased significantly after the festival, with a profit of - 4.94 yuan/feather as of October 9. The broiler chicken farming profit fluctuated greatly in Q3, with a profit of - 1.55 yuan/feather as of October 10. The inventory of laying hens and broiler chickens was at a relatively high level, indicating optimistic feed demand [102][103][105]. - **Meat Duck Inventory**: As of October 3, the national meat duck parent - stock inventory was 249,000 sets, and the daily average hatching volume of commercial - generation meat ducks was 9.3 million feathers [108]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Price Outlook for the Double - Meal Market - **Soybean Meal Market**: Supply is affected by the harvest of US soybeans, Sino - US trade relations, and weather in Brazil. Domestic supply is sufficient, and the January contract is under pressure. Consumption is expected to be acceptable in Q4 but weaker than in the first half of the year. Overall, the price may stop falling and rebound, but there are risks [5][109]. - **Rapeseed Meal Market**: International supply is affected by the harvest of Canadian rapeseed and the opening of Australian rapeseed imports. Domestic supply is affected by inventory and China - Canada trade. Downstream consumption is in the off - season in Q4. It mainly follows the trend of soybean meal, and attention should be paid to China - Canada trade relations [9][112].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean harvest has started, and the short - term supply in China is sufficient. Before the holiday, the fundamentals are bearish, and caution is needed when going long. Due to the Sino - US trade tariff issue, the continuous downward space is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the US soybean quarterly inventory data at the end of September, US biodiesel policy, and Sino - US trade progress during the harvest season [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Trade policies and high inventory lead to a mix of long and short factors. It is recommended to view it as a range - bound market. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed shows that Sino - Canadian trade negotiations still take time. Its trend currently follows that of soybean meal, and attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade progress [1][5]. - **Palm Oil**: Frequent changes in US biodiesel policy drag down palm oil adjustment. The market expects Malaysian palm oil to continue to accumulate inventory in September, which may suppress its performance before the double festivals. It is expected to be in a short - term weak and volatile market. Attention should be paid to Malaysian palm oil exports in September and the performance of the US soybean oil market [1][7]. - **Soybean Oil**: Frequent changes in US biodiesel policy and the approaching US soybean harvest may put pressure on the soybean oil market. After the domestic double - festival spot inventory replenishment ends, it has recently followed the palm oil market. Attention should be paid to US biodiesel trends and the follow - up progress of Sino - US trade [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The Sino - Canadian trade dispute and the domestic rapeseed oil de - stocking cycle support the rapeseed oil price to maintain a high - level and strong - side oscillation. However, the gradual development of Sino - Australian trade restricts its continuous upward performance. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - Canadian negotiations and the follow - up trends of US biodiesel policy [1]. - **Cotton**: The increasing supply from the US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries, along with the weak export demand and the high level of unpriced long positions, are expected to keep the cotton market under pressure. Domestically, the new cotton harvest has started, and the opening price is not strongly supported. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand is not ideal, and the foreign trade is affected by trade policies and exchange rates. It is recommended to short - allocate near - month contracts in the short term [1][9][11]. - **Red Dates**: Based on the current production expectations and carry - over inventory, there is still pressure after the new dates are launched. In the short term, the weather window is shrinking, and the market's concern about quality issues is gradually alleviating, but there may be large fluctuations before November. It is recommended to short on rallies during market speculation [1][13]. - **Hogs**: The spot market is under pressure from both the supply side and the feed price adjustment. In the short and medium term, the supply pressure is obvious, and the spot price continues to decline. With the improvement of the inventory structure, pay attention to whether the spread between standard and fat hogs can widen during the peak season to drive the market up. In the far - month, there is no clear positive news in capacity regulation. It is recommended to short - allocate the November contract and maintain the inter - month reverse spread strategy, considering the 07 and future 09 contracts for the long side of the reverse spread [1][16]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract is 2937 yuan/ton, down 1.01% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3014.29 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The national average soybean crushing profit is - 160.6813 yuan/ton, down 14.88 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory Data**: As of September 19, 2025, the national port soybean inventory is 898.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 70.30 million tons; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory is 694.66 million tons, a decrease of 38.54 million tons, or 5.26%. The soybean meal inventory is 125 million tons, an increase of 8.56 million tons, or 7.35% [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract is 2405 yuan/ton, down 1.60% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2581.05 yuan/ton, down 0.37%. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit is - 228.7825 yuan/ton, down 22.41 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Data**: As of September 19, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory is 4.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 million tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. Palm Oil - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract is 9234 yuan/ton, down 0.02% from the previous day. The national average price is 9295 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import cost is 9382 yuan/ton, unchanged [6]. - **Inventory Data**: As of September 19, 2025, the national key areas' palm oil commercial inventory is 58.51 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.64 million tons, or 8.79% [7]. Cotton - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract CF2601 is 13350 yuan/ton, down 0.41% from the previous day. The domestic spot price is 15059 yuan/ton, down 0.50%. The ICE cotton main contract is 65.19 cents/pound, up 0.08% [8][9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Internationally, the supply pressure is increasing as the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries enter the harvest season. Domestically, the new cotton processing is about 22%, the harvest in the northern Xinjiang is slightly delayed, and the demand is weak [9][10]. Red Dates - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2601 is 10915 yuan/ton, down 2.33% from the previous day [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: The main production areas are in the coloring and sugaring stage. The estimated new - season production is 56 - 62 million tons, and the demand in the sales area is weak [13]. Hogs - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract Lh2511 is 12295 yuan/ton, down 2.61% from the previous day. The spot price is 12750 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [14][15]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short and medium term, the supply pressure is large, and the demand is gradually improving. In the long term, the sow inventory is decreasing [15][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term decline**: For soymeal, rapeseed meal, the short - term supply is sufficient with various influencing factors such as soybean harvest and trade policies, and the prices are expected to decline in the short term [1][3][5]. - **Short - term continued adjustment**: Palm oil and soybean oil are affected by factors like the US biodiesel policy and soybean harvest, and their prices are expected to continue to adjust in the short term [1][6][7]. - **High - level oscillation**: Rapeseed oil is supported by trade disputes and inventory cycles but limited by trade expansion, maintaining a high - level oscillating trend [1]. - **Cautiously bearish**: Cotton and jujube face supply pressure and other issues, and their prices are cautiously expected to decline. Strategies suggest short - term short - allocation for cotton and seizing short - selling opportunities for jujube [1][8][11][14]. - **Cautiously bearish for live pigs**: Live pigs are under supply pressure in the short and medium term, and there is no clear positive news in the long term. The 11 - contract is recommended for short - allocation, and the inter - month reverse spread strategy is maintained [1][15][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soymeal - **Market data**: The futures price of soymeal's main contract closed at 2967 yuan/ton, up 1.26% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3025.43 yuan/ton, up 1.25%. The national average soybean crushing profit was - 217.4407 yuan/ton, an increase of 29.12 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **Supply and demand**: As of September 19, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 898.3 million tons, a decrease of 70.30 million tons from the previous week. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 694.66 million tons, a decrease of 38.54 million tons, and the soymeal inventory was 125 million tons, an increase of 8.56 million tons from the previous week [3]. - **Outlook**: The start of the US soybean harvest and the increase in domestic inventory put short - term pressure on soymeal. Due to Sino - US trade tariffs, the continued downward space is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the US soybean quarterly inventory data at the end of September, the US biodiesel policy, and Sino - US trade progress [1][3]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Market data**: The futures price of rapeseed meal's main contract was 2444 yuan/ton, up 2.05% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2571.58 yuan/ton, up 1.50% [4]. - **Supply and demand**: As of September 19, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 4.6 million tons, a decrease of 2.8 million tons from the previous week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 1.75 million tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week [5]. - **Outlook**: Trade policies and high inventory lead to a mixed situation of long and short factors. Rapeseed meal's trend mainly follows that of soymeal. Attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade progress [1][5]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Market data**: The futures price of palm oil's main contract was 9222 yuan/ton, up 1.05% from the previous day. The national average price was 9250 yuan/ton, up 2.04%. The national daily trading volume was 800 tons, an increase of 166.67% [6]. - **Supply and demand**: As of September 19, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 58.51 million tons, a decrease of 5.64 million tons from the previous week. From September 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil product exports increased by 11.31% compared to the same period in August [7]. - **Outlook**: Frequent changes in the US biodiesel policy and expected inventory accumulation in Malaysia in September may suppress palm oil's performance before the double festivals. A short - term weak oscillating market is expected. Attention should be paid to Malaysia's palm oil exports this month and the performance of the US soybean oil market [1][7]. 3.4 Cotton - **Market data**: Zhengzhou cotton's main contract CF2601 decreased by 0.92% to 13405 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price decreased by 0.32% to 15059 yuan/ton. ICE cotton's main contract increased by 0.08% to 65.19 cents/pound [9]. - **Supply and demand**: Internationally, the US cotton harvest is progressing, and the supply pressure is increasing. Domestically, new cotton has started preliminary harvesting, with weak farmers' price - holding sentiment and no obvious rush - to - buy situation. The demand side shows a marginal weakening trend [9][10][11]. - **Outlook**: The supply side is under pressure, and the demand has not improved significantly. It is expected to maintain a pressured oscillating market. Short - term short - allocation of near - month contracts is recommended [1][8][11]. 3.5 Jujube - **Market data**: The jujube's main contract CJ2601 increased by 2.97% to 11285 yuan/ton [14]. - **Supply and demand**: The main jujube - producing areas are in the coloring and sugar - increasing stage. The estimated new - season output is 56 - 62 million tons, and the inventory is higher than the same period. The demand in the sales area is weak [14]. - **Outlook**: Considering the output and inventory, there is still pressure after the new jujubes are listed. Before November, there may be large price fluctuations due to speculation. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities during rebounds [1][14]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Market data**: The main contract Lh2511 of live pigs decreased by 0.98% to 12575 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained stable at 12760 yuan/ton [15][16]. - **Supply and demand**: In the short term, the supply pressure is strong, and the planned slaughter volume in September is expected to increase. In the medium term, the number of piglets born from January to August is increasing, indicating a potential increase in slaughter volume. In the long term, the inventory of breeding sows is declining [16]. - **Outlook**: The spot price is under double pressure from slaughter and feed. In the short and medium term, the supply pressure will drive the price down. There is no clear positive news in the long term. The 11 - contract is recommended for short - allocation, and the inter - month reverse spread strategy is maintained [1][15][17].

Core Viewpoint - The soybean oil futures market is experiencing slight fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 8178.00 yuan, down 0.17% from the previous session [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The main soybean oil futures contract showed a slight decline of 0.17%, indicating a potential bearish sentiment in the market [2]. - Increased soybean oil production and high inventory levels are putting pressure on prices, as noted by Hongye Futures [2]. - The resumption of export taxes in Argentina is affecting the competitiveness of Argentine soybean and soybean oil in the international market, leading to a rise in CBOT soybean and soybean oil prices [3]. Group 2: Inventory and Supply - As of September 12, domestic soybean oil commercial inventory stood at 1.26 million tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 10,000 tons but a month-on-month increase of 100,000 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 110,000 tons [4]. - High inventory levels are suppressing the potential for price increases, leading to a bearish outlook on soybean oil [4]. - Domestic oil mills are operating at high rates, contributing to sufficient soybean oil supply in the market [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term bearish outlook**: For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs, the short - term trends are either bearish or require caution. For example, soybean meal has limited upside due to harvest and inventory, while cotton is pressured by supply and weak demand [1][8][11]. - **High - level oscillation**: Rapeseed oil is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation due to trade disputes and inventory cycles [1]. - **Weak - oscillation in the short - term**: Palm oil and soybean oil are likely to experience weak oscillations in the short - term because of policy uncertainties and inventory concerns [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Price data**: The futures price of soybean meal (main contract, daily close) is 2967 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan or 1.26% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3025.43 yuan/ton, up 37.43 yuan or 1.25% [2]. - **Inventory data**: As of September 19, 2025, national port soybean inventory is 898.3 million tons, down 70.30 million tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory is 694.66 million tons, down 38.54 million tons (5.26%) week - on - week, and their soybean meal inventory is 125 million tons, up 8.56 million tons (7.35%) week - on - week [3]. - **Market analysis**: US soybean harvest has started, and the short - term domestic supply is sufficient. Due to Sino - US trade tariffs, the continuous downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the US soybean quarterly inventory data at the end of September, US biodiesel policy, and Sino - US trade progress during the harvest season [1][3]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Price data**: The futures price of rapeseed meal (main contract, daily close) is 2444 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan or 2.05% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2571.58 yuan/ton, up 37.9 yuan or 1.50% [4]. - **Inventory data**: As of September 19, coastal area major oil mills' rapeseed inventory is 4.6 million tons, down 2.8 million tons week - on - week; rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 million tons, unchanged week - on - week [5]. - **Market analysis**: Trade policies and high inventory lead to a mixed situation of long and short factors. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed shows that Sino - Canadian trade negotiations will take time, but the impact of Sino - Australian rapeseed trade limits the upside. Its trend mainly follows that of soybean meal, and attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade progress [1][5]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Price data**: The futures price of palm oil (main contract, daily close) is 9222 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan or 1.05% from the previous day. The national average price is 9250 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan or 2.04% [6]. - **Inventory data**: As of September 19, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory is 58.51 million tons, down 5.64 million tons (8.79%) week - on - week [7]. - **Market analysis**: Frequent changes in US biodiesel policy and expected inventory build - up in Malaysian palm oil in September may suppress its performance before the double festivals. It is expected to show a weak - oscillation trend in the short - term. Attention should be paid to Malaysian palm oil export in September and the performance of the US soybean oil market [1][7]. 3.4 Cotton - **Price data**: The futures price of cotton (CF2601, main contract) is 13530 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 0.18% from the previous value. The domestic spot price is 15107 yuan/ton, up 0.1% [8]. - **Supply - demand data**: US cotton harvest is progressing, and other northern hemisphere countries are also about to enter the harvest season, increasing supply pressure. Domestic new cotton harvest has started, and the demand performance during the "Golden September and Silver October" is not ideal, and the foreign trade outlook is weak [9][10][11]. - **Market analysis**: It is expected to maintain a pressured - oscillation market. It is recommended to short - allocate near - month contracts in the short - term [11]. 3.5 Jujube - **Price data**: The futures price of jujube (CJ2601, main contract) is 10970 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan or 1.72% from the previous value. The price of Hebei special - grade grey jujube has a slight increase [12]. - **Supply - demand data**: The estimated new - season jujube production is expected to decrease, but there may not be an obvious supply - demand gap considering the carry - over inventory. The demand in the sales area is weak [14]. - **Market analysis**: Concerns about quality are gradually easing, but there may be large price fluctuations before November. It is recommended to be cautious in trading and look for opportunities to short on price rebounds [15]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Price data**: The futures price of live pigs (Lh2511, main contract) is 12685 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan or 0.35% from the previous value. The national average spot price is 12840 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [16]. - **Supply - demand data**: In the short - to - medium term, the supply pressure is high, and the demand is gradually improving. In the long - term, the number of fertile sows is decreasing [17]. - **Market analysis**: The spot price is under pressure. In the short - term, the 11 - contract should be short - allocated on rebounds, and the inter - month reverse - spread strategy should be maintained [18].