Group 1: Report Summary - The July supply and demand report of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) is bullish, leading to a rise in palm oil prices [1][9] - The report shows that palm oil exports were 1,309,059 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.82%; production was 1,812,417 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.09%; imports were 61,039 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.82%; and inventory was 2,113,278 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.02% [9] - The production volume and increase were lower than the forecasts of Bloomberg and Reuters, while the export increase was higher than their forecasts, causing the domestic Dalian palm oil 2601 contract to rise rapidly after the opening, with a gain of over 1.88% at the time of reporting [9] Group 2: Forecast and Actual Data Comparison - Reuters expected production to be 183 (an 8% increase), imports to be 6 (a 14.3% decrease), exports to be 130 (a 3.2% increase), and the ending inventory to be 225 (a 10.8% increase) [2] - Bloomberg expected production to be 183 (an 8% increase), imports to be 5 (a 28.6% decrease), exports to be 130 (a 3.2% increase), and the ending inventory to be 223 (a 9.9% increase) [2] - The actual data in July 2025 showed production of 181 (a 7.09% increase), imports of 6.1 (a 12.82% decrease), exports of 131 (a 3.82% increase), and ending inventory of 211 (a 4.02% increase) [2] Group 3: Palm Oil 2601 Contract Data - The latest price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9208, with a gain of 2.02% [7] - The total volume was 230,717, and the open interest was 287,073 [7] - The target volume was 27,615, and the settlement price was 0 [7] - The ratio of the outer market was 51.6%, and the inner market was 111,656 [7] - The FFA ratio was 48.4%, the daily limit up was 9656, and the daily limit down was 8396 [7]

Group 1: Report Core View - The July supply - demand report of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) is overall bullish. The actual production and inventory volume and their growth rates are lower than the forecasts of Bloomberg and Reuters, while the export growth rate is higher than their forecasts. After the opening, the domestic Dalian - traded palm oil 2601 contract quickly rose, with a gain of over 1.88% at the time of reporting [1][9] Group 2: Report Data Summary Production - Reuters expected production to be 183 (an increase of 8%), Bloomberg expected 183 (an increase of 8%), and the actual data in July 2025 was 181 (an increase of 7.09%) compared to the previous month [2] Import - Reuters expected imports to be 6 (a decrease of 14.3%), Bloomberg expected 5 (a decrease of 28.6%), and the actual data in July 2025 was 6.1 (a decrease of 12.82%) compared to the previous month [2] Export - Reuters and Bloomberg both expected exports to be 130 (an increase of 3.2%), and the actual data in July 2025 was 131 (an increase of 3.82%) compared to the previous month [2] Inventory - Reuters expected the ending inventory to be 225 (an increase of 10.8%), Bloomberg expected 223 (an increase of 9.9%), and the actual data in July 2025 was 211 (an increase of 4.02%) compared to the previous month [2] Palm Oil 2601 Contract Details - The latest price is 9208, with a change of 182/2.02%. The total volume is 230717, the open interest is 287073. The target volume is 27615. The outer - market volume is 119061, and the inner - market volume is 111656. The ratio of outer - market to total volume is 51.6%, and the ratio of inner - market to total volume is 48.4%. The opening price is 9000, the settlement price is 0, the previous day's price is 9026, the daily limit is 9656, and the lower limit is 8396 [7]

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures experienced a slight decline of 0.63%, closing at 8838.00 CNY per ton, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil export volume for July 1-31 is estimated at 896,362 tons, a decrease of 25.01% compared to 1,195,265 tons in the same period last month [2] - The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA) reported that Malaysia's palm oil yield increased by 7.19% month-on-month for July, while the extraction rate decreased by 0.02%, resulting in a production increase of 7.07% compared to the previous month [2] - Indonesia's statistics bureau indicated that from January to June, Indonesia exported 11 million tons of crude palm oil and refined palm oil, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.69%. The average export price of palm oil in the first half of the year rose by 22.2% year-on-year [2] Market Sentiment and Forecast - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the external palm oil supply and demand fundamentals are weak, leading to insufficient upward momentum in the domestic palm oil market, with increased technical selling pressure and potential for further declines in the short term [3] - Shenwan Hongyuan Futures noted that high-frequency data shows a month-on-month recovery in Malaysian palm oil production in July, while export performance remains weak, leading to expectations of increased inventory and negatively impacting palm oil performance. The ample supply of domestic soybean oil, driven by high previous imports, has resulted in lower prices for soybean oil in China, creating a substitution risk for palm oil demand and raising concerns about future export levels from producing regions. The market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations in the short term [3]

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil market is experiencing fluctuations due to a slight decrease in Malaysian palm oil production and positive export demand, while concerns about supply increases and declining international oil prices persist [2][3]. Group 1: Production Data - Malaysian palm oil production for June is estimated to decrease by 4.69%, with the peninsula increasing by 0.68% and significant reductions in Sabah (11.95%), Sarawak (8.98%), and Borneo (11.24%) [2]. - SPPOMA forecasts a 17.06% month-on-month decrease in palm oil production for the first 10 days of June, with a slight increase of 2.5% for the first 20 days [2]. Group 2: Export Data - High-frequency export data indicates that Malaysian palm oil exports are expected to increase by 8.07%-26.4% for the first 10 days of June, with a 10.88%-14.31% increase for the first 20 days [2]. Group 3: Market Analysis - According to Ruida Futures, the slight decrease in June production and good export demand may support palm oil prices, but caution remains due to potential supply increases and softening international oil prices [3]. - Donghai Futures notes that OPEC+ plans to increase production in August, which may pressure the oil market and limit the positive impact on international oilseed prices [3]. - The domestic market is seeing increased palm oil imports and commercial inventories, with a weak basis, while the overall market is expected to maintain a range-bound and slightly strong trend [3].

Group 1: Market Overview - In late June, international oil prices significantly declined, leading to a drop in both domestic and international palm oil futures prices. If global geopolitical risks continue to decrease, palm oil prices will revert to being driven by fundamentals [1] - Currently, during the production season, Malaysian palm oil production is rapidly increasing. According to MPOB data, May palm oil production rose by 3.94% year-on-year and 5.05% month-on-month, reaching the highest level in nearly five years [1] - Despite the high production in May, it is expected that the growth rate of Malaysian palm oil production will slow down in June, with SPPOMA data indicating a 2.5% month-on-month increase in the first half of June, lower than the production growth in May [1] Group 2: Demand and Export - Demand for Malaysian palm oil began to recover in March, with rapid growth in April and May. From January to April, India's palm oil imports were low, leading to strong replenishment demand [2] - In May, India's palm oil imports increased by 84% month-on-month, driven by a significant reduction in import tariffs from 20% to 10% on May 30, which lowered import costs and boosted palm oil imports [2] - Institutions estimate that Malaysian palm oil exports will increase by 14.3% month-on-month from June 1 to June 20, indicating a scenario of simultaneous supply and demand growth in the palm oil market [2] Group 3: Inventory and Policy - In May, Malaysian palm oil inventory increased by 6.65% month-on-month to 1.99 million tons, which, while high for recent years, was below market expectations. Strong exports are expected to slow down the accumulation of inventory [2] - On June 6, Indonesia announced that the Indonesia-EU Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IEU-CEPA) is nearing completion, which will eliminate import tariffs on various Indonesian products, potentially boosting palm oil exports [2] - The U.S. Senate passed the "Big and Beautiful" bill on July 1, which includes the 45Z provision aimed at increasing biodiesel production, thereby raising demand for oilseed raw materials and benefiting palm oil [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - Overall, the current palm oil market is characterized by simultaneous increases in supply and demand. Although increased production has led to inventory pressure, stronger-than-expected exports provide support for futures prices [3] - If exports maintain previous growth rates from June to August, it may lead to a counter-cyclical reduction in inventory. Additionally, positive signals from policy developments suggest a non-pessimistic outlook for the mid-term palm oil market [3]