Report Title - "Guofu Palm Oil Research Weekly Report: MPOB Malaysia Palm Oil Continued to Build Inventory in October, Focus on High-Frequency Data from Producing Areas 20251117" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil supply and demand both increased in October, with the ending inventory reaching 2464000 tons, and the current inventory pressure remains. Attention should be paid to high-frequency data from palm oil producing areas, changes in import demand from major consuming areas such as India, and changes in biodiesel policies of relevant countries [7]. - The price of BMD Malaysia palm oil rose this week, mainly driven by the increase in the prices of relevant international competing vegetable oils, but the poor export performance of Malaysia palm oil in the first 10 days of November limited the increase in the futures price [7]. - The price of DCE palm oil fluctuated slightly lower this week, mainly affected by the decline in the import cost of domestic palm oil and the slight increase in domestic palm oil inventory during the week, but the increase in the prices of relevant domestic competing vegetable oils limited the decline [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 BMD Malaysia Palm Oil - As of the close on November 14, the BMD Malaysia palm oil 01 contract closed at 4125 ringgit/ton, up 0.36% from last week. The price increase was driven by the increase in the prices of relevant international competing vegetable oils, but the poor export performance in the first 10 days of November limited the increase [7]. - In October, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 11.02% month-on-month to 2044000 tons, higher than the 5-year average. The SPPOMA estimated that the production in the first 10 days of November decreased by 2.16% month-on-month [7]. - In October, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 18.58% month-on-month to 1693000 tons, far exceeding market expectations. However, high-frequency data from three major institutions showed that the exports in the first 10 days of November were expected to decrease by 9.5% - 49.53% month-on-month [7]. 1.2 DCE Palm Oil - As of the close on November 14, the DCE palm oil 01 contract closed at 8644 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from last week. The price fluctuated slightly lower, mainly affected by the decline in the import cost of domestic palm oil and the slight increase in domestic palm oil inventory, but the increase in the prices of relevant domestic competing vegetable oils limited the decline [12]. - This week, the foreign quotation decreased, the inversion range of the palm oil futures import profit narrowed, and the inversion range of the futures soybean-palm oil price spread continued to repair [12]. 2. Producing Area Weather 2.1 Malaysia Producing Area Weather - From November 8 - 14, except for parts of southern Peninsular Malaysia, eastern Sarawak, and southwestern Sabah where precipitation was 15 - 25mm higher than the historical normal level, precipitation in the rest of the areas was generally at or below the historical normal level by 15 - 75mm [14]. - From November 15 - 21, except for a small part of northeastern Peninsular Malaysia and northern Sabah where precipitation is expected to be 15 - 25mm lower than the historical normal level, precipitation in the rest of the areas is expected to be generally at or above the historical normal level by 15 - 100mm [16]. 2.2 Indonesia Producing Area Weather - From November 8 - 14, except for parts of northern and southern Sumatra where precipitation was 15 - 100mm higher than the historical normal level, precipitation in the rest of the areas was at or below the historical normal level by 15 - 50mm. In Kalimantan, except for a small part of western and northern areas where precipitation was 15 - 25mm lower than the historical normal level, precipitation in the rest of the areas was generally at or above the historical normal level by 15 - 100mm [19]. - From November 15 - 21, except for a small part of central and western Sumatra where precipitation is expected to be 15 - 25mm lower than the historical normal level, precipitation in the rest of the areas is expected to be generally at or above the historical normal level by 15 - 100mm [21]. 3. International Supply and Demand 3.1 MPOB October Report - Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory in October increased by 4.44% month-on-month to 2464000 tons, higher than the same period last year and the 5-year average [23]. - In October, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 11.02% month-on-month to 2044000 tons, exports increased by 18.58% month-on-month to 1693000 tons, and imports decreased by 53.73% month-on-month to 36000 tons [23]. 3.2 Malaysia Palm Oil November Forecast - **Export Forecast**: AmSpec data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 were 448328 tons, a 9.5% decrease from the same period last month; ITS data showed that exports were 459320 tons, a 12.28% decrease; SGS data showed that exports were expected to be 190533 tons, a 49.53% decrease [30]. - **Production Forecast**: SPPOMA data showed that from November 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 4.14% month-on-month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, and production decreased by 2.16% month-on-month [34]. 3.3 Other Important News - India's palm oil imports in October were 602381 tons, lower than 833017 tons in September. In the 2024/25 fiscal year, palm oil imports were 7.58 million tons, lower than 9.01 million tons in the same period last year. The proportion of palm oil in India's vegetable oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year dropped below 50% for the first time [36]. - Indonesia may reduce palm oil exports by 11% - 12% in 2026 due to the implementation of a biodiesel blend fuel (B50) containing 50% palm oil. Indonesia plans to launch the B50 blend fuel in the second half of next year [36]. - Indonesia will start the B50 biodiesel road test in early December, and the government is considering whether to implement the B50 mandatory standard only in specific fields. The government plans to implement the B50 blending standard in the second half of next year, an increase from this year's 40% blending ratio [38]. - Indonesia's palm oil production from January - September this year was more than 43 million tons, a 11% year-on-year increase; exports were about 25 million tons, a 13.4% year-on-year increase [38]. - As of November 10, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year has reached 12.25 million kiloliters, and the Indonesian government has allocated 15.6 million kiloliters of FAME for biodiesel consumption in 2025 [38]. - CIMB Securities expects that due to a 10% month-on-month decrease in exports, Malaysia's palm oil inventory will increase by 4.0% month-on-month to 2.57 million tons in November; production is expected to decrease by 8.0% month-on-month to 1.88 million tons after peaking in October [38]. 4. Domestic Supply and Demand 4.1 Import Profit - This week, the inversion range of the palm oil futures import profit narrowed [39]. 4.2 Palm Oil Transactions - This week, palm oil transactions decreased. As of the week of November 14, the total weekly palm oil transactions (spot transactions + basis transactions) were 3403 tons, a decrease of 2597 tons from last week, a decline of 43% [42]. 4.3 Palm Oil Inventory - Palm oil inventory increased. As of November 7, 2025 (week 45), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 597300 tons, a 0.76% increase from last week and a 10.86% increase from 538800 tons in the same period last year [44][45]. 5. Domestic and International Vegetable Oil Futures and Spot Prices, and Price Spreads 5.1 Basis, Month Spread, and Variety Spread - **Palm Oil Basis and Month Spread**: Relevant data charts of palm oil basis and month spread in different regions are provided, but specific numerical analysis is not given in the text [48][51][52]. - **Variety Spread and POGO Spread**: Relevant data charts of international and domestic soybean-palm oil, rapeseed-palm oil, sunflower-palm oil price spreads, and POGO spreads are provided, but specific numerical analysis is not given in the text [54][56][57]. 5.2 Palm Oil Warehouse Receipt Quantity and Futures Positions - Relevant data charts of DCE palm oil warehouse receipt quantity and 01 contract positions are provided, but specific numerical analysis is not given in the text [59]. 5.3 FOB Quotes - Relevant data charts of Malaysia and Indonesia's 24-degree palm oil FOB quotes are provided, but specific numerical analysis is not given in the text [62]

Group 1 - The palm oil futures market is showing a strong upward trend, with the main contract opening at 8698.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 8850.00 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.50% [1] - The MPOB report for October indicates that Malaysian palm oil production increased by 11.02% month-on-month, exports rose by 18.58%, and inventory grew by 4.4%, slightly above market expectations, suggesting a bearish outlook [1] - Current market sentiment is mixed, with some analysts noting that while there is a seasonal trend of inventory reduction, the palm oil market is entering a production cut cycle, leading to a cautious outlook on price stability [1][2] Group 2 - The analysis from Guotou Anxin Futures highlights that despite a decrease in palm oil prices, the significant increase in supply has led to a rise in inventory levels, maintaining a bearish sentiment in the market [2] - High-frequency data for early November shows that Malaysian palm oil production continues to grow, while export demand has declined, indicating ongoing pressure on prices due to high inventory levels [2] - The market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, with prices expected to remain in a sideways trend until clearer supply-demand signals emerge [2]

Group 1: Report Summary - The July supply and demand report of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) is bullish, leading to a rise in palm oil prices [1][9] - The report shows that palm oil exports were 1,309,059 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.82%; production was 1,812,417 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.09%; imports were 61,039 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.82%; and inventory was 2,113,278 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.02% [9] - The production volume and increase were lower than the forecasts of Bloomberg and Reuters, while the export increase was higher than their forecasts, causing the domestic Dalian palm oil 2601 contract to rise rapidly after the opening, with a gain of over 1.88% at the time of reporting [9] Group 2: Forecast and Actual Data Comparison - Reuters expected production to be 183 (an 8% increase), imports to be 6 (a 14.3% decrease), exports to be 130 (a 3.2% increase), and the ending inventory to be 225 (a 10.8% increase) [2] - Bloomberg expected production to be 183 (an 8% increase), imports to be 5 (a 28.6% decrease), exports to be 130 (a 3.2% increase), and the ending inventory to be 223 (a 9.9% increase) [2] - The actual data in July 2025 showed production of 181 (a 7.09% increase), imports of 6.1 (a 12.82% decrease), exports of 131 (a 3.82% increase), and ending inventory of 211 (a 4.02% increase) [2] Group 3: Palm Oil 2601 Contract Data - The latest price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9208, with a gain of 2.02% [7] - The total volume was 230,717, and the open interest was 287,073 [7] - The target volume was 27,615, and the settlement price was 0 [7] - The ratio of the outer market was 51.6%, and the inner market was 111,656 [7] - The FFA ratio was 48.4%, the daily limit up was 9656, and the daily limit down was 8396 [7]

Group 1: Report Core View - The July supply - demand report of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) is overall bullish. The actual production and inventory volume and their growth rates are lower than the forecasts of Bloomberg and Reuters, while the export growth rate is higher than their forecasts. After the opening, the domestic Dalian - traded palm oil 2601 contract quickly rose, with a gain of over 1.88% at the time of reporting [1][9] Group 2: Report Data Summary Production - Reuters expected production to be 183 (an increase of 8%), Bloomberg expected 183 (an increase of 8%), and the actual data in July 2025 was 181 (an increase of 7.09%) compared to the previous month [2] Import - Reuters expected imports to be 6 (a decrease of 14.3%), Bloomberg expected 5 (a decrease of 28.6%), and the actual data in July 2025 was 6.1 (a decrease of 12.82%) compared to the previous month [2] Export - Reuters and Bloomberg both expected exports to be 130 (an increase of 3.2%), and the actual data in July 2025 was 131 (an increase of 3.82%) compared to the previous month [2] Inventory - Reuters expected the ending inventory to be 225 (an increase of 10.8%), Bloomberg expected 223 (an increase of 9.9%), and the actual data in July 2025 was 211 (an increase of 4.02%) compared to the previous month [2] Palm Oil 2601 Contract Details - The latest price is 9208, with a change of 182/2.02%. The total volume is 230717, the open interest is 287073. The target volume is 27615. The outer - market volume is 119061, and the inner - market volume is 111656. The ratio of outer - market to total volume is 51.6%, and the ratio of inner - market to total volume is 48.4%. The opening price is 9000, the settlement price is 0, the previous day's price is 9026, the daily limit is 9656, and the lower limit is 8396 [7]

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures experienced a slight decline of 0.63%, closing at 8838.00 CNY per ton, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil export volume for July 1-31 is estimated at 896,362 tons, a decrease of 25.01% compared to 1,195,265 tons in the same period last month [2] - The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA) reported that Malaysia's palm oil yield increased by 7.19% month-on-month for July, while the extraction rate decreased by 0.02%, resulting in a production increase of 7.07% compared to the previous month [2] - Indonesia's statistics bureau indicated that from January to June, Indonesia exported 11 million tons of crude palm oil and refined palm oil, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.69%. The average export price of palm oil in the first half of the year rose by 22.2% year-on-year [2] Market Sentiment and Forecast - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the external palm oil supply and demand fundamentals are weak, leading to insufficient upward momentum in the domestic palm oil market, with increased technical selling pressure and potential for further declines in the short term [3] - Shenwan Hongyuan Futures noted that high-frequency data shows a month-on-month recovery in Malaysian palm oil production in July, while export performance remains weak, leading to expectations of increased inventory and negatively impacting palm oil performance. The ample supply of domestic soybean oil, driven by high previous imports, has resulted in lower prices for soybean oil in China, creating a substitution risk for palm oil demand and raising concerns about future export levels from producing regions. The market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations in the short term [3]

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil market is experiencing fluctuations due to a slight decrease in Malaysian palm oil production and positive export demand, while concerns about supply increases and declining international oil prices persist [2][3]. Group 1: Production Data - Malaysian palm oil production for June is estimated to decrease by 4.69%, with the peninsula increasing by 0.68% and significant reductions in Sabah (11.95%), Sarawak (8.98%), and Borneo (11.24%) [2]. - SPPOMA forecasts a 17.06% month-on-month decrease in palm oil production for the first 10 days of June, with a slight increase of 2.5% for the first 20 days [2]. Group 2: Export Data - High-frequency export data indicates that Malaysian palm oil exports are expected to increase by 8.07%-26.4% for the first 10 days of June, with a 10.88%-14.31% increase for the first 20 days [2]. Group 3: Market Analysis - According to Ruida Futures, the slight decrease in June production and good export demand may support palm oil prices, but caution remains due to potential supply increases and softening international oil prices [3]. - Donghai Futures notes that OPEC+ plans to increase production in August, which may pressure the oil market and limit the positive impact on international oilseed prices [3]. - The domestic market is seeing increased palm oil imports and commercial inventories, with a weak basis, while the overall market is expected to maintain a range-bound and slightly strong trend [3].

Group 1: Market Overview - In late June, international oil prices significantly declined, leading to a drop in both domestic and international palm oil futures prices. If global geopolitical risks continue to decrease, palm oil prices will revert to being driven by fundamentals [1] - Currently, during the production season, Malaysian palm oil production is rapidly increasing. According to MPOB data, May palm oil production rose by 3.94% year-on-year and 5.05% month-on-month, reaching the highest level in nearly five years [1] - Despite the high production in May, it is expected that the growth rate of Malaysian palm oil production will slow down in June, with SPPOMA data indicating a 2.5% month-on-month increase in the first half of June, lower than the production growth in May [1] Group 2: Demand and Export - Demand for Malaysian palm oil began to recover in March, with rapid growth in April and May. From January to April, India's palm oil imports were low, leading to strong replenishment demand [2] - In May, India's palm oil imports increased by 84% month-on-month, driven by a significant reduction in import tariffs from 20% to 10% on May 30, which lowered import costs and boosted palm oil imports [2] - Institutions estimate that Malaysian palm oil exports will increase by 14.3% month-on-month from June 1 to June 20, indicating a scenario of simultaneous supply and demand growth in the palm oil market [2] Group 3: Inventory and Policy - In May, Malaysian palm oil inventory increased by 6.65% month-on-month to 1.99 million tons, which, while high for recent years, was below market expectations. Strong exports are expected to slow down the accumulation of inventory [2] - On June 6, Indonesia announced that the Indonesia-EU Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IEU-CEPA) is nearing completion, which will eliminate import tariffs on various Indonesian products, potentially boosting palm oil exports [2] - The U.S. Senate passed the "Big and Beautiful" bill on July 1, which includes the 45Z provision aimed at increasing biodiesel production, thereby raising demand for oilseed raw materials and benefiting palm oil [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - Overall, the current palm oil market is characterized by simultaneous increases in supply and demand. Although increased production has led to inventory pressure, stronger-than-expected exports provide support for futures prices [3] - If exports maintain previous growth rates from June to August, it may lead to a counter-cyclical reduction in inventory. Additionally, positive signals from policy developments suggest a non-pessimistic outlook for the mid-term palm oil market [3]