Export Performance - In July, China's exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, up 1.4 percentage points from June, continuing the improvement trend since May[1] - Exports to ASEAN rose by 16.6% year-on-year, while exports to South Korea increased by 4.6%, marking a significant recovery[2] - Exports to the US saw a decline of 21.7%, deepening by 5.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a stronger impact from tariffs[2] Import Trends - Imports in July rose by 4.1% year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3.0 percentage points, driven primarily by recovering crude oil prices[1] - The trade surplus narrowed slightly to $98.24 billion in July, reflecting the dynamics of both exports and imports[1] - The contribution of processing trade intermediate goods and capital goods imports fell by 0.6 percentage points, indicating a cooling in these sectors[5] Market Outlook - The extension of the tariff relief period by the US is expected to marginally boost exports of electromechanical products and mid-range consumer goods[6] - The imposition of 15% tariffs on other major trading partners may enhance China's export price competitiveness but could also weaken demand from these economies[6] - The semiconductor and machinery sectors may face challenges due to increased tariffs on key supply chain partners like Mexico and Vietnam[6]

宏 观 研 究 华福证券 2025 年 08 月 07 日 新关税形势下出口走强能否延续？ ——国际贸易数据点评（2025.7） 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 原关税缓和期尾部我国 7 月出口同比再度回升；原油价格回暖带动进口增 速连续大幅改善。7 月出口（美元计价，下同）同比较 6 月再度上行 1.4 个百 分点至 7.2%，延续了 5 月以来出口连续改善的趋势，再度凸显中美 5 月中旬 达成的 90 天关税缓和期、以及美国对其他地区实施的缓和期尾部对我国出口 的总体拉动作用。近期美国关税形势进入新阶段，对华延长 90 天缓冲期，但 对其他主要经济体均采取更高税率，我国出口面临的新形势或更趋复杂多变。 原油价格回暖带动 7 月进口同比再度大幅改善 3.0 个百分点至 4.1%，当月货物 对美出口跌幅再度加深，对协同供给伙伴在缓和期末出口高增，对非美发 达经济出口跌多增少。7 月美国明确提出在 8 月结束对除我国以外地区的关税 缓和期并对转口贸易加征更高关税。这在逻辑上指向我国对协同供给伙伴的出 口可能在 7 月出现抢运以规避未来更高的关税风险，数据与逻辑匹配度较高， 7 月对东盟出口同比 16.6%，尽管小幅 ...