以下文章来源于Counterpoint 咨询 ，作者Counterpoint 首先，英伟达有望在一定程度上恢复其在中国市场的商业存在，从而为美国在 AI 竞赛中争取相对 优势。今年 10 月，英伟达CEO 黄仁勋曾指出，受此前出口管制影响，公司在中国高端 AI GPU 市 场的份额已从约 95% 下滑至 0%。随着 H200 获准出口，英伟达得以实施更加精细化的全球策略， 包括产品分级、选择性出口，以及在中国本土芯片厂商快速崛起背景下更有力地强化自身生态体 系。从结果上看，这一举措也可能在一定程度上放缓中国推进 AI 芯片自主化进程的节奏。 其次，该决定体现了华盛顿地区对自身技术领先地位的信心。尽管 H200 性能依然卓越，但英伟达 新一代 Blackwell 架构旗舰 B200 的吞吐量几乎是 H200 的三倍，而预计于 2026 年推出的 Rubin 架构 将进一步拉大性能差距。因此，中国当前能够获得的 AI 芯片，与美国本土及其他市场所部署的最 先进产品之间，依然存在显著代际差距。换言之，真正最先进、性能最强的芯片仍然被保留在中国 市场之外。尽管英伟达在商业层面更倾向于不受限制，但仍必须遵守美国对华出口 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the electric power equipment sector [6][18]. Core Viewpoints - The domestic computing power sector is experiencing a significant opportunity for growth driven by multiple factors, including the integration of domestic chips and liquid cooling technology, which is reshaping the computing infrastructure [14][15]. - The report highlights the increasing demand for high-power AIDC cabinets, with power ratings reaching 20-100kW, indicating a shift from optional to essential cooling solutions [14]. - Policy support is crucial, with state-owned data centers required to procure over 50% of their chips from domestic sources, further stimulating the domestic computing power ecosystem [15]. - The report emphasizes the potential for domestic manufacturers to expand overseas, particularly in the diesel generator market, as global demand for AI computing infrastructure rises [16]. Summary by Sections Investment Viewpoints - The report identifies the diesel generator sector as having the most straightforward growth logic, recommending companies such as Weichai Heavy Machinery and KOTAI Power [6][17]. - It also suggests monitoring the gradually increasing penetration of HVDC segments, recommending companies like Kehua Data and Hewei Electric [6][17]. - Lastly, it highlights opportunities in server power supplies and liquid cooling segments, recommending companies like Invec and Shunling Environment [6][17]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the electric power equipment sector has seen a 1.94% increase in market performance recently, ranking 16th among various sectors [20]. - It discusses the successful launch of the Ningxia-Hunan ±800 kV UHVDC project, which is expected to enhance the transmission capacity of renewable energy [22]. - The report also mentions the ongoing global demand for AI computing infrastructure, which is expected to provide long-term growth momentum for domestic IDC and computing rental companies [16]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report provides earnings forecasts for several key companies, including: - KOTAI Power (300153.SZ): EPS forecast of 0.85 in 2025E, with a "Buy" rating [19]. - Weichai Heavy Machinery (000880.SZ): EPS forecast of 0.98 in 2025E, currently unrated [19]. - Kehua Data (002335.SZ): EPS forecast of 1.30 in 2025E, currently unrated [19]. - Invec (002837.SZ): EPS forecast of 0.66 in 2025E, currently unrated [19]. - Shunling Environment (301018.SZ): EPS forecast of 1.05 in 2025E, with a "Buy" rating [19]. - Hewei Electric (603063.SH): EPS forecast of 1.40 in 2025E, with a "Buy" rating [19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The continuous iteration of model capabilities is driving the improvement of domestic computing power [3] - The demand side sees increased capital expenditure from internet companies due to ongoing model performance upgrades by firms like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Kimi [5] - On the supply side, the domestic AI chip supply is diverse, with ongoing advancements in chip production and applications [5] - Government policies are encouraging the construction of intelligent computing centers, further driving the development of domestic computing power [5] - The sustained iteration of large models and increased capital expenditure from internet firms are expected to boost AI computing demand, benefiting related sectors such as AI chips, servers, and data centers [5] Summary by Sections Demand Side - Continuous model performance upgrades are leading to increased capital expenditures from internet companies [5] - Domestic capital expenditure is expected to reach 150 billion yuan from ByteDance and 380 billion yuan from Alibaba over the next three years for cloud and AI hardware infrastructure [5] Supply Side - Domestic AI chip supply is becoming more diverse, with significant advancements in production [5] - Notable developments include the mass production of Huawei's Ascend 910C and the procurement of 4,500 servers for a smart computing center project [5] Policy Side - The government is promoting the "Artificial Intelligence +" strategy and supporting the development of diverse computing resources [5] - Local policies in regions like Shanghai and Guangdong are actively encouraging the growth of intelligent computing centers [5] Investment Analysis - The report suggests focusing on companies in AI chips, server assembly, components, computing leasing, and data centers as they are expected to benefit from the growing demand for AI computing [5]