Core Viewpoint - The ongoing chip industry dynamics reflect a shift in power, with the U.S. attempting to regain market share while China accelerates its self-sufficiency in chip production [2][8]. Group 1: U.S. Policy Changes - The U.S. initially imposed strict bans on high-tech chip sales to China, but by July 2025, the Trump administration began to relax some restrictions, allowing specific AI chips to be sold under the condition of a 15% revenue share to the U.S. Treasury [2][4]. - Major U.S. chip companies like NVIDIA and AMD, which previously relied heavily on the Chinese market for over 20% of their revenue, are eager to re-enter the market following the easing of restrictions [4][5]. Group 2: China's Response - In response to U.S. restrictions, China has committed to increasing its self-sufficiency in chip production, aiming to double its domestic chip supply by the end of 2025, supported by significant government investment [4][5]. - Chinese companies, including Huawei and SMIC, are advancing their technology, with Huawei's Ascend 910B chip already in use in local data centers, demonstrating competitive performance [4][5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The Chinese government has initiated anti-monopoly investigations against NVIDIA, indicating a tightening regulatory environment for foreign chip companies [4][5]. - As of September 2023, China has begun investigations into U.S. chips for potential discrimination and dumping, complicating the re-entry of U.S. firms into the Chinese market [5][6]. Group 4: Impact on Global Chip Companies - Companies like Samsung and TSMC are facing challenges due to U.S. policy changes, with Samsung reporting a 10% drop in third-quarter revenue as a result of lost market share in China [7][8]. - The shift in the chip industry landscape has led to a bifurcation of the global supply chain, with the U.S. and China emerging as two distinct poles [8][10]. Group 5: Long-term Implications - The initial U.S. strategy aimed at stifling China's AI development has inadvertently accelerated China's innovation and self-reliance in chip technology [10]. - U.S. chip companies are now facing higher barriers to entry in China, as the country enhances its domestic capabilities and reduces reliance on foreign technology [10].

Core Viewpoint - The market reaction to DeepSeek's rise should not lead to the unreasonable selling of Nvidia stocks, as the situation is not as dire as perceived [1]. Group 1: Market Perception and Competition - Prior to the release of DeepSeek's R1 model, there was a widespread belief that China lagged significantly behind the US in AI, with Eric Schmidt stating a 2-3 year lead for the US due to chip bans and investment disparities [2]. - DeepSeek's previous models failed to gain traction, but the R1 model demonstrated that advanced models could be developed using older GPUs, which could lead to increased GPU demand due to wider AI adoption [3]. - Nvidia's sales distribution shows that only 47% of its revenue comes from the US, indicating the importance of other regions like Singapore, which serves as a billing hub rather than a primary shipping destination [6][7]. Group 2: Risks and Developments - The ban on Nvidia's H20 and A100 chips for China poses a risk, as DeepSeek reportedly owns around 10,000 A100 chips, acquired through significant investments from the High-Flyer Quant Fund [9]. - China is investing heavily in developing its own chips to reduce reliance on Nvidia, which could potentially account for about 20% of Nvidia's sales if successful [10]. - DeepSeek is reportedly using Huawei's Ascend 910B chips for its upcoming R2 model, which could disrupt Nvidia's market position if confirmed [12][15]. Group 3: Future Implications - If DeepSeek announces the use of Huawei chips for R2, it could lead to a significant drop in Nvidia's stock price, similar to the reaction following the R1 release [16]. - The potential for Nvidia's stock to decline is high, given the current market dynamics and the possibility of DeepSeek's shift to local chip suppliers [17].