芯片的事儿，说起来真是一波三折。美国那边折腾了好几年，先是死咬着不让高科技芯片卖给中国，觉得这样就能卡住中国的发展。 结果呢，到了2025年，特朗普上台没多久，就开始松口了。起因是美国芯片公司们叫苦连天，说禁令把自己也给坑了，利润掉得飞快。 英伟达、AMD这些大厂，之前靠中国市场赚得盆满钵满，一下子没了那么大块蛋糕，股价都晃荡了好一阵子。 特朗普政府一看，经济压力山大，就在7月份宣布解除部分禁令，允许卖一些特定型号的AI芯片过去，但有个条件，得从销售额里抽15%交给美国财政部。 这算是一种妥协吧，既想赚中国市场的钱，又不想完全放手不管。 具体来说，英伟达的H20处理器，本来是专门为中国市场设计的，性能调低了点，符合之前的出口限制。可4月份特朗普刚加强禁令，把这个也禁了。 结果没过几个月，7月又翻盘，说可以卖了。AMD的MI308也一样，拿到出口许可。特朗普在公开场合还说，这么做是为了让中国继续依赖美国技术，别自 己搞得太猛。 芯片公司们当然乐坏了，赶紧准备重返中国市场。英伟达老总黄仁勋亲自去白宫游说，数据摆在那，中国市场占他们收入的20%多，丢了可惜。 政府一松绑，这些企业就开始联系中国客户，盘算着订单能恢复 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market reaction to DeepSeek's rise should not lead to the unreasonable selling of Nvidia stocks, as the situation is not as dire as perceived [1]. Group 1: Market Perception and Competition - Prior to the release of DeepSeek's R1 model, there was a widespread belief that China lagged significantly behind the US in AI, with Eric Schmidt stating a 2-3 year lead for the US due to chip bans and investment disparities [2]. - DeepSeek's previous models failed to gain traction, but the R1 model demonstrated that advanced models could be developed using older GPUs, which could lead to increased GPU demand due to wider AI adoption [3]. - Nvidia's sales distribution shows that only 47% of its revenue comes from the US, indicating the importance of other regions like Singapore, which serves as a billing hub rather than a primary shipping destination [6][7]. Group 2: Risks and Developments - The ban on Nvidia's H20 and A100 chips for China poses a risk, as DeepSeek reportedly owns around 10,000 A100 chips, acquired through significant investments from the High-Flyer Quant Fund [9]. - China is investing heavily in developing its own chips to reduce reliance on Nvidia, which could potentially account for about 20% of Nvidia's sales if successful [10]. - DeepSeek is reportedly using Huawei's Ascend 910B chips for its upcoming R2 model, which could disrupt Nvidia's market position if confirmed [12][15]. Group 3: Future Implications - If DeepSeek announces the use of Huawei chips for R2, it could lead to a significant drop in Nvidia's stock price, similar to the reaction following the R1 release [16]. - The potential for Nvidia's stock to decline is high, given the current market dynamics and the possibility of DeepSeek's shift to local chip suppliers [17].