Core Viewpoint - The ongoing chip industry dynamics reflect a shift in power, with the U.S. attempting to regain market share while China accelerates its self-sufficiency in chip production [2][8]. Group 1: U.S. Policy Changes - The U.S. initially imposed strict bans on high-tech chip sales to China, but by July 2025, the Trump administration began to relax some restrictions, allowing specific AI chips to be sold under the condition of a 15% revenue share to the U.S. Treasury [2][4]. - Major U.S. chip companies like NVIDIA and AMD, which previously relied heavily on the Chinese market for over 20% of their revenue, are eager to re-enter the market following the easing of restrictions [4][5]. Group 2: China's Response - In response to U.S. restrictions, China has committed to increasing its self-sufficiency in chip production, aiming to double its domestic chip supply by the end of 2025, supported by significant government investment [4][5]. - Chinese companies, including Huawei and SMIC, are advancing their technology, with Huawei's Ascend 910B chip already in use in local data centers, demonstrating competitive performance [4][5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The Chinese government has initiated anti-monopoly investigations against NVIDIA, indicating a tightening regulatory environment for foreign chip companies [4][5]. - As of September 2023, China has begun investigations into U.S. chips for potential discrimination and dumping, complicating the re-entry of U.S. firms into the Chinese market [5][6]. Group 4: Impact on Global Chip Companies - Companies like Samsung and TSMC are facing challenges due to U.S. policy changes, with Samsung reporting a 10% drop in third-quarter revenue as a result of lost market share in China [7][8]. - The shift in the chip industry landscape has led to a bifurcation of the global supply chain, with the U.S. and China emerging as two distinct poles [8][10]. Group 5: Long-term Implications - The initial U.S. strategy aimed at stifling China's AI development has inadvertently accelerated China's innovation and self-reliance in chip technology [10]. - U.S. chip companies are now facing higher barriers to entry in China, as the country enhances its domestic capabilities and reduces reliance on foreign technology [10].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and China are significantly impacting TSMC, a leading player in the semiconductor industry, particularly following the US Department of Commerce's revocation of the "Verified End User" (VEU) exemption for TSMC and other companies operating in China [1][2][15] Group 1: Impact of VEU Revocation - The revocation of the VEU exemption will complicate TSMC's supply chain, increasing operational costs and reducing efficiency due to the need for individual export licenses for each shipment [1][4] - TSMC's Nanjing factory, which handles a substantial volume of mature process orders, may face significant disruptions, affecting the supply chains of various international chip manufacturers [8][10] - The US Department of Commerce anticipates an additional 1,000 export license applications annually due to the revocation, highlighting the increased administrative burden on companies [4][10] Group 2: Strategic Positioning of TSMC - TSMC is navigating a delicate balance between maintaining its business interests and managing relationships with both the US and Chinese markets, reflecting a cautious approach in its communications [2][6] - The tightening of US semiconductor export controls is part of a broader strategy to curb China's technological advancements, with TSMC caught in the middle of this geopolitical struggle [6][15] - The company's market capitalization has surged to over $1 trillion, driven by the rising demand for advanced chips, particularly in AI applications, positioning it as a key player in the global tech landscape [4][10] Group 3: Future Outlook - The ongoing policy changes create heightened uncertainty and volatility in the semiconductor sector, compelling companies to adopt a more conservative investment stance [10][12] - The future of TSMC's VEU status and its negotiations with the US government remain uncertain, with potential implications for the global supply chain and the semiconductor industry at large [15][12] - The situation reflects a broader trend of "de-risking" within the global semiconductor supply chain, driven by national security concerns and the quest for technological independence [12][15]

Group 1: AI and Technology - The satellite internet and quantum technology sectors are showing positive performance, with companies in telecommunications, optical communications, and satellite internet expected to experience a new growth phase [1] - The demand for AI continues to grow, particularly as large enterprises like Oracle and Meta increase capital expenditures, indicating strong growth potential for optical modules as foundational components of computing clusters [1] - DeepSeek's next-generation R2 AI model development is facing challenges due to a shortage of Nvidia H20 processors in the Chinese market, impacting the training process of the model [3][2] - The reliance of top Chinese AI companies on American hardware is highlighted by the export restrictions, which poses a significant vulnerability despite DeepSeek's claims of lower resource investment compared to American firms like OpenAI [2] Group 2: Precious and Industrial Metals - The demand for gold remains strong due to U.S. fiscal issues and a weakening dollar credit system, with expectations for gold prices to continue rising [1] - The supply-demand gap for gold is expected to persist throughout the year, with a gradual improvement in fundamentals and a potential downward convergence of the gold-silver ratio, suggesting silver may enter a phase of catch-up [1] - The demand for energy metals is supported by the robust outlook for the electric vehicle and photovoltaic industries, although the supply side remains in an oversupply situation, keeping prices at the bottom range [1] - Economic growth significantly impacts the prices of non-ferrous metals, with manufacturing PMI new orders closely correlating with metal prices, while discrepancies in U.S. manufacturing orders and inventory data indicate potential price uncertainties [3] - Changes in overseas inventory are negatively correlated with metal prices, particularly for tin, copper, lead, and aluminum, suggesting significant impacts from inventory fluctuations [3]