来源：大观国研 12月5日，在中国外交部例行记者会上，发言人林剑对一则技术出口问题作出了明确回应。英媒记者提 问中提到，AMD首席执行官苏姿丰称其公司获得了部分MI308芯片对华出口许可，并愿意将对华销售 收入的15%上缴美国政府。表面看是一项"有诚意"的商业交易，但林剑仅用一句"请美方以实际行动维 护全球供应链稳定"，就点破了其中的政治本质。 这番回应看似平淡，实则传递了明确信号：中国不会接受打了折扣的技术产品，更不会为美方的规则设 限背书。林剑没有就"是否购买"展开论述，而是直接回到了本源问题——谁在设限、谁在控制、谁在制 造不平等的技术规则。 从回应中可以读出，中方已不再容忍美方一边用行政手段限制中国发展高端技术，一边又想继续向中国 市场倾销经过性能阉割的"次级芯片"。这是一场在对等尚未建立的前提下，拒绝继续妥协的外交表达， 也是对当前出口机制的系统性反制。 "阉割版芯片"背后的双重陷阱 MI308并非AMD旗下的高端产品，而是在MI300X基础上为中国市场"量身定制"的降级版，其定位与此 前英伟达的H20芯片如出一辙：牺牲算力、压缩带宽、降低互联能力，只为拿到美国政府的出口许可标 签。 这种"特供化" ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing chip industry dynamics reflect a shift in power, with the U.S. attempting to regain market share while China accelerates its self-sufficiency in chip production [2][8]. Group 1: U.S. Policy Changes - The U.S. initially imposed strict bans on high-tech chip sales to China, but by July 2025, the Trump administration began to relax some restrictions, allowing specific AI chips to be sold under the condition of a 15% revenue share to the U.S. Treasury [2][4]. - Major U.S. chip companies like NVIDIA and AMD, which previously relied heavily on the Chinese market for over 20% of their revenue, are eager to re-enter the market following the easing of restrictions [4][5]. Group 2: China's Response - In response to U.S. restrictions, China has committed to increasing its self-sufficiency in chip production, aiming to double its domestic chip supply by the end of 2025, supported by significant government investment [4][5]. - Chinese companies, including Huawei and SMIC, are advancing their technology, with Huawei's Ascend 910B chip already in use in local data centers, demonstrating competitive performance [4][5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The Chinese government has initiated anti-monopoly investigations against NVIDIA, indicating a tightening regulatory environment for foreign chip companies [4][5]. - As of September 2023, China has begun investigations into U.S. chips for potential discrimination and dumping, complicating the re-entry of U.S. firms into the Chinese market [5][6]. Group 4: Impact on Global Chip Companies - Companies like Samsung and TSMC are facing challenges due to U.S. policy changes, with Samsung reporting a 10% drop in third-quarter revenue as a result of lost market share in China [7][8]. - The shift in the chip industry landscape has led to a bifurcation of the global supply chain, with the U.S. and China emerging as two distinct poles [8][10]. Group 5: Long-term Implications - The initial U.S. strategy aimed at stifling China's AI development has inadvertently accelerated China's innovation and self-reliance in chip technology [10]. - U.S. chip companies are now facing higher barriers to entry in China, as the country enhances its domestic capabilities and reduces reliance on foreign technology [10].

Core Insights - The article discusses the strategic manipulation of rare earth exports by China, particularly in relation to the U.S. military and automotive industries, highlighting a significant increase in exports of rare earth magnets to the U.S. while restricting military-grade materials [1][4][8] Group 1: Export Dynamics - In June, China's exports of rare earth magnets to the U.S. surged to 353 tons, a 660% increase from May's 46 tons, indicating a tactical maneuver rather than a genuine trade recovery [1][3] - The U.S. military's reliance on rare earth materials is underscored, with the F-35 fighter jet requiring 417 kg of rare earths and Virginia-class submarines needing up to 4 tons [3][4] Group 2: Strategic Agreements - A temporary agreement was reached in May, allowing Chinese exports of civilian-grade magnets to U.S. automakers like General Motors and Ford, in exchange for the U.S. permitting exports of Nvidia's H20 chips to China [4][6] - Despite this agreement, military-grade rare earths remain tightly controlled, forcing the Pentagon to resort to recycling materials from old phones [4][7] Group 3: Market Manipulation - China has shifted to a "strategic ambiguity" regarding rare earth mining quotas, delaying the announcement of the first batch for 2025 and not disclosing specific figures, which disrupts international market clarity [6][8] - The price of dysprosium oxide in Europe has surged to $700-$1000 per kg, three times higher than domestic prices, due to the lack of transparency in China's export quotas [6][8] Group 4: U.S. Industry Challenges - U.S. company MP Materials received $400 million from the Defense Department but has only restored 45% of its production capacity, with a 40% waste rate in magnet production [7][8] - The influx of 353 tons of magnets from China led U.S. automakers to cancel domestic orders, resulting in a significant drop in MP Materials' stock price [7][8] Group 5: Ongoing Tensions - The article emphasizes that the competition between the U.S. and China over rare earths is far from over, with China monitoring the destination of exported magnets to prevent them from reaching military applications [8][9] - The U.S. is facing a strategic dilemma, as investments of $40 billion have not resolved the underlying issues of dependency on Chinese rare earths and chips [9][11]