2025年3月，崔天凯参加了中俄三亚对话，并与美国前驻华大使鲍卡斯进行了交流。这些活动表明，崔天凯依然致力于推动理性和务实的对话，倡导通过建 设性的交流解决问题。他指出，尽管中美之间的竞争依然存在，但中国将继续通过创新驱动经济稳步发展，增强科技实力，同时也将加大对东盟的合作与支 持。美国则面临严重的债务危机，经济形势严峻。在这种背景下，崔天凯的警示显得尤为重要：中美博弈将是长期的，美国的施压不会停止，中国必须依靠 自己的实力去回应挑战，保持定力，不被美国的节奏所左右。 在中美关系波动的背后，崔天凯大使对两国关系的深刻剖析为我们提供了一个清晰的视角。2023年4月28日，他接受《观察者网》采访时表示，美国将中国 视为最大战略竞争对手，这一战略定位无论选举如何变化都不会改变。中美关系将充满波动，甚至可能会经历风起云涌的事件。他指出，美国动用了全政府 的力量来应对中国，且没有底线。中国在国际事务中的作为常常遭到美国的反对，这种现象反映出美国缺乏应有的是非判断。崔天凯还批评了美国的两个凡 是政策——凡是中国做的都反对，凡是中国提的都不赞成。他认为，这种政策存在严重问题，且限制了双方在科技和文化领域的交流与合作，陷入了 ...

阅读是一件长久的事，希望这份书单能够为读者朋友们的阅读 旅程增添一份乐趣。 作者： 经观书评 封图：东方IC 祝各位辞旧迎新，阅读愉快！ 《基层中国的运行逻辑》 @卢周来（经济学家、书评人）： 本书是聂辉华教授解读中国基层治理的重磅力作。著作以政治经济学与组织经济学为核心视角，聚焦基层治 理"最后一公里"，系统剖析"条块结合、以块为主"的运行架构、权责体系与激励逻辑，精准拆解基层治理的现实 困境与深层规律；著作创新突破传统定性研究范式，以"内外冲突双均衡"框架、官场三因子模型等工具，揭 示"不完全契约 + 政治承包制 = 无限责任制"的核心矛盾，实现了基层治理研究从现象描述到理论建构的重要跨 越，填补了国内基层治理微观机制研究的学术空白；著作语言平实、案例鲜活，将复杂治理逻辑化繁为简，既保 有严谨的学术深度，又贴近现实、易懂好读。 1月23日，经过读者投票和内部评议，经观书评编辑部评选出了2025年度入围长名单，共25本书，分为经管、科技、文学、历 史四大类，图书从2025年度经观好书1月-12月的好书榜内选取。 2月4日，终评评委齐聚经观书评编辑部，探讨最终的入选名单。大家各抒己见，现场讨论热烈（我们还剪了 ...

Group 1 - The recent victory of Japan's ruling coalition in the House of Representatives elections has elevated the political stature of Kishi Sanae, indicating a potential shift in the geopolitical landscape, particularly in U.S.-China relations [1][3][5] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant's remarks suggest that Japan's strengthened position may provide the U.S. with renewed opportunities to engage in competition with China, highlighting Japan's potential role as a key player in this geopolitical rivalry [5][9] - The upcoming military sales plan to Taiwan, potentially worth $20 billion, could significantly impact the Taiwan Strait situation and challenge China's bottom line, indicating the complexities of U.S.-China relations [7] Group 2 - Elon Musk's predictions regarding U.S.-China technological competition emphasize that by 2026, China's power generation capacity may reach three times that of the U.S., underscoring the importance of technological innovation for national economic strength [9][10] - Musk warns that without breakthroughs in technology, particularly in AI, humanoid robots, and electric vehicles, the U.S. risks falling behind China, highlighting vulnerabilities in U.S. strategic resources like rare earth elements [10][12] - The attitudes of Europe, Russia, and India towards U.S.-China relations are crucial, with European leaders expressing support for Japan's new leadership, while India's Prime Minister Modi acknowledges Kishi Sanae's potential contributions to regional stability [13][15]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government's response to Meta's acquisition of AI platform Manus highlights the importance of adhering to national laws and regulations in cross-border mergers and acquisitions, reflecting a new logic in global tech competition where data, security, and rules must have clear sovereign boundaries [1][2][8] Group 1: Regulatory Framework - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce emphasizes that any cross-border acquisition must comply with Chinese laws and regulations, which are increasingly comprehensive [4][5] - Key laws include the Cybersecurity Law, Data Security Law, Personal Information Protection Law, and Anti-Monopoly Law, which collectively form the "Chinese rules" for the digital era [4][5] Group 2: Implications of the Acquisition - The acquisition of Manus by Meta is not just a commercial transaction; it involves complex issues such as the transfer of core AI technologies and data resources, which could affect global AI ecosystem dynamics [2][6] - The review process initiated by the Chinese government serves as a preventive measure to ensure national tech security and data sovereignty, aligning with practices of other major economies [2][9] Group 3: Global Tech Competition - The review signifies a clear message to the global tech and investment communities that China possesses a complete digital sovereignty and legal framework, requiring respect for its rules in any cross-border tech activities [8][9] - This situation reflects a shift in the ongoing US-China tech rivalry, moving from direct actions against specific companies to a broader focus on regulatory and review powers [8][9] Group 4: Future Outlook - The scrutiny of Meta's acquisition is a professional exercise in lawful administration and a significant declaration of rules, indicating that future tech competition will encompass not only technology and market dynamics but also the power to set rules and influence legal frameworks [9][11] - The Chinese government aims to create a transparent and law-based tech market environment, which is essential for fostering genuine innovation and long-term cooperation [11]

Core Viewpoint - The new silver export control policy in China aims to enhance industry concentration and ensure the sustainable development of the silver industry by setting strict criteria for export enterprises, amidst rising global demand for silver in various high-tech industries [2][7]. Group 1: Export Control Policy - The new policy elevates the export management level of silver, introducing three strict "red lines": - Production capacity line: Enterprises with annual production below 80 tons will be eliminated to enhance industry concentration [2]. - Qualification line: Companies must have a continuous export record for the past three years to prevent speculative entrants [2]. - Environmental line: Enterprises not meeting environmental standards will be shut down to promote green development [2]. Group 2: Industrial Demand for Silver - Silver's role has evolved beyond being a precious metal for jewelry; industrial demand now accounts for over 50% of total silver consumption, a figure that continues to rise [2]. - Silver is essential in high-end electronic components and thermal materials, playing a critical role in emerging industries such as: - Photovoltaics: Silver paste is a key conductive material for solar cells, with no complete substitutes found yet [4]. - Electric vehicles: Each electric vehicle uses an average of 1 to 1.5 ounces of silver, double that of traditional cars [4]. - 5G communication: All 5G devices require silver-coated components for signal transmission [4]. - Artificial intelligence: Silver is widely used in electronic components of servers and hardware [4]. Group 3: Global Supply Chain and Market Dynamics - The trend of increasing silver demand may reshape global supply chain dynamics, challenging the long-established global division of labor and prompting tech companies to reconsider production base layouts and supply chain resilience [5]. - Financial capital is increasingly recognizing silver's dual attributes as both a safe-haven precious metal and an industrial metal with growth potential, leading to heightened price volatility [5]. - In 2025, silver prices surged from $29-$30 per ounce at the beginning of the year to a range of $70-$80 by year-end, achieving over 100% growth, outpacing gold [5]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - The implementation of China's silver export control policy occurs at a time of global market vulnerability and supply tension, serving as a defensive measure to safeguard domestic industrial security [7]. - Long-term, this policy aims to control key resources, promote domestic industrial upgrades, and shape a favorable strategic landscape in global technology and industrial competition [7]. - The rising silver prices signal a deeper level of technological competition, where the ability to secure sufficient resources and innovate to reduce resource dependency will determine future leadership in the tech industry [7].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the US has postponed the imposition of tariffs on Chinese chips for 18 months, aiming to stabilize short-term US-China relations and manage friction levels [5][10][14] - The strategic objective of the US in the technology competition remains unchanged, focusing on maintaining technological hegemony, but the approach may shift towards more precise controls rather than a blanket blockade [5][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring domestic political dynamics in the US that could interfere with major power relations, especially with the upcoming election year [5][14] Group 2 - Ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are characterized by a "fighting while talking" approach, with sensitive issues like territorial disputes still unresolved [5][12][15] - Ukraine's proposed peace plan includes maintaining sovereignty, establishing a contact line for monitoring, and receiving security guarantees, while Russia's stance remains firm on territorial claims [12][15] - The report suggests that the current period until winter of the following year may serve as a window for negotiations, with significant implications for US-Russia relations [15][17] Group 3 - The report indicates that geopolitical conflicts will continue, with a focus on the dynamics of US-Russia-Ukraine negotiations and potential impacts on global stability [17][20] - The US tariff policies are expected to remain a focal point, particularly regarding strategic security industries, with ongoing investigations into sectors like semiconductors and critical minerals [20][21] - The report warns of potential long-term risks associated with the rebalancing of major power relations, particularly in the context of US domestic politics and international trade dynamics [21][22]

Group 1 - The international copper price is approaching $12,000 due to surging demand from AI data centers, constrained supply from mines, and tight external copper sources in the U.S. [1] - Copper prices have increased over 30% this year, potentially marking the largest annual gain since 2009 [1] - Macquarie forecasts global copper demand to reach 27 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with China's demand expected to grow by 3.7% [1] Group 2 - Shandong Province in Eastern China aims to become a top global copper smelting hub, with plans to expand the copper industry and achieve rapid progress in the next two years [1] - The provincial government targets a copper industry output value exceeding 2.08 trillion RMB (approximately $283.5 billion) by 2027 [1] - Despite being the largest copper importer and consumer, Shandong intends to broaden its export markets amid increasing geopolitical tensions and technological competition [4] Group 3 - The three-month copper futures price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose by 0.48% to $11,611.50 per ton, nearing historical highs of $11,771 [4] - Goldman Sachs analysts attribute the price surge of copper and other industrial metals to declining interest rates, a weakening dollar, and improved growth expectations for the Chinese economy [4] - A report predicts that a sustained global supply surplus will prevent copper prices from exceeding $11,000 for an extended period by 2026 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) has released two key international standards in the power semiconductor device sector, led by China, marking a significant breakthrough in China's participation in international standardization efforts for power semiconductor devices [1] Group 1: International Standards - The two revised international standards are "Semiconductor Devices - Part 2: Discrete Devices - Rectifier Diodes" (IEC60747-2:2025ED4.0) and "Semiconductor Devices - Part 6: Discrete Devices - Thyristors" (IEC60747-6:2025ED4.0) [1] - These standards address long-standing mismatches between technical content and product development, enhancing the applicability and operability of testing for high-power semiconductor devices [1] Group 2: Applications and Impact - Rectifier diodes and thyristors are fundamental semiconductor devices widely used in household appliances such as mobile phone chargers, lighting controls, vacuum cleaner speed regulation, and electromagnetic stove power control [1] - They are also extensively utilized in electric vehicles and charging stations, renewable energy generation, new power systems, smart grids, industrial automation, and aerospace [1] - The new standards will serve as important references for global manufacturers, users, and third-party testing organizations in product research, testing, and application, thereby improving the overall technology and quality level of China's power electronics industry [1] Group 3: Collaborative Efforts - Chinese experts, as project leaders, collaborated with specialists from Japan, Germany, and South Korea to discuss terminology, definitions, testing methods, and conditions within the standards [2] - The domestic technical team conducted over a thousand related experimental validations to ensure the standards are structurally rigorous and content-complete [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article criticizes the Trump administration's hostile policies towards foreign talent, particularly Chinese researchers, which are driving them back to China and threatening the U.S.'s competitive edge in technology and innovation [1][2]. Group 1: Talent Flow Changes - The number of Chinese students studying in the U.S. grew sixfold from 2000 to 2019, peaking at over 372,000, but has since declined by nearly 30% due to the U.S. government's hostile attitude and the COVID-19 pandemic [4]. - The perception of overseas graduates in China has shifted, with local graduates now considered equally capable, diminishing the previous advantages of returning scholars [4]. - A significant trend of Chinese scientists returning to China has emerged, with approximately two-thirds of those leaving the U.S. in 2021 choosing to return home, compared to less than half in 2010 [6]. Group 2: Impact of U.S. Policies - The Trump administration's "China Initiative," launched in 2018, aimed at investigating researchers for alleged espionage, causing widespread fear among Chinese scientists, although only a quarter of cases resulted in convictions [5][6]. - The U.S. government has proposed measures such as a $100,000 fee for H1-B visa applications, which disproportionately affects Chinese and Indian applicants, further complicating the situation for foreign talent [2]. Group 3: AI Talent Migration - Despite the U.S. being a leading hub for AI talent, China is becoming a significant source of top talent, with nearly half of the world's leading AI researchers having received their undergraduate education in China [8]. - The proportion of foreign AI researchers in the U.S. who choose to return to China after graduation has increased from 4% in 2019 to 8% in 2022, indicating a potential trend of talent migration [9]. - The article highlights that the tightening of U.S. immigration policies and the perception of hostility towards Chinese nationals are influencing the decisions of talented individuals in the AI field [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The controversy surrounding ASML's alleged proposal to "monitor Chinese customers" highlights the intersection of corporate actions and geopolitical tensions in the global semiconductor industry, reflecting a shift in the international technology order that warrants deeper attention beyond the accusations themselves [1][6][13] Group 1: Background of the Controversy - The controversy originated from a book co-authored by former Bloomberg journalists, which portrays ASML as being drawn into the U.S. export restriction framework, suggesting a narrative that may exaggerate the situation [2][4] - The book claims that during a transitional period of U.S.-Dutch export restrictions in 2023, ASML sold more DUV lithography machines than contracted, leading to U.S. dissatisfaction and a proposal from ASML's CEO to provide internal customer data in exchange for service permissions [4][5] - ASML's rapid denial of these claims emphasizes its compliance with GDPR, privacy laws, and strict confidentiality agreements with clients, indicating that sharing customer information poses significant legal and commercial risks [5][10] Group 2: Strategic Context - ASML is undergoing a leadership transition, with the current CEO set to retire in 2024, and the new management aims to reshape the company's brand and political image, making the allegations particularly sensitive [5][11] - Ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Europe regarding further export restrictions complicate ASML's position, as the company must balance its revenue interests against geopolitical pressures [5][11] - The rapid advancement of China's semiconductor manufacturing capabilities raises concerns within the West about ASML's role in China, further politicizing the narrative surrounding the company [5][12] Group 3: ASML's Unique Position - ASML operates as a highly globalized entity, relying on multiple countries for strategic resources, which complicates its ability to remain neutral in geopolitical conflicts [7][11] - China represents a significant market for ASML, accounting for 40%-50% of its DUV equipment revenue, making it essential for the company to maintain trust with Chinese clients [9][12] - The Dutch government faces a strategic dilemma, wanting to support its domestic technology sector while also aligning with U.S. security interests and maintaining trade relations with China [9][12] Group 4: Implications of the Controversy - The incident illustrates how corporate actions in the technology sector are increasingly interpreted through a geopolitical lens, with narratives being constructed around compliance and rule adherence [6][11][13] - ASML's actions, such as accelerating contract fulfillment before restrictions take effect, are often viewed through a political framework, complicating its business decisions [11][12] - The controversy serves as a reminder that in the current geopolitical climate, the boundaries between corporate behavior and national narratives are becoming increasingly blurred, necessitating a new balance for global technology companies [13]