来源：科普启示录小强哥 声明：本文内容均引用权威资料结合个人观点进行撰写，文末已标注文献来源，请知悉。 黄仁勋刚说H20芯片被美国政府放行，但是紧接着就曝出了这款芯片存在后门安全风险。 这不禁让我们怀疑，美国政府和英伟达是不是在演双簧，他们一个唱白脸，一个唱红脸，合起伙来算计 我们？ 如果英伟达特供中国的芯片真的存在很严重的安全问题，那么，我国和美国科技界此前达成的一系列默 契乃至于共识，也就都不复存在了。 最关键的是，英伟达的这款芯片主要是供应于AI领域的，而AI领域目前正是我国和美国各大企业都在 拼命竞争和研发的领域。在这个微妙的时间节点曝出安全问题，美国人想做什么可谓不言自明。 黄仁勋肯定不会放弃庞大的中国市场，所以只能在中美之间寻找微妙的平衡点。 去年初，英伟达就已经接受中国企业的芯片预定了，双方谈好了时间，谈好了出口规模。但是一年之 后，美国政府态度改变。 美国政府暂停了H20芯片出口到中国，而且美国政府还不给出明确的时间表，不知道什么时候才会解除 限制。 何况，美国此前为了在芯片领域领先，就曾经采取过各种各样的手段打击其他国家的先进企业。 H20芯片的出口一波三折 黄仁勋上个月刚来中国，处处表现出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential U.S. strategy of sacrificing Ukrainian interests in exchange for Russian rare earth supplies to reduce dependence on China, highlighting the shortsightedness of this approach and its implications for U.S.-China relations [4][19]. Group 1: U.S. Rare Earth Supply Chain Challenges - The U.S. is heavily reliant on China for rare earth elements, with 80% of its imports coming from China, which controls over 90% of global refining capacity [5][6]. - U.S. military applications, such as the F-35 fighter jet, depend on Chinese rare earth materials, and the U.S. defense stockpile is only sufficient for a few months of production [5]. - Despite efforts to rebuild its supply chain, the U.S. is projected to meet only 5% of its rare earth separation capacity by 2023, even after investing $1.5 billion [6]. Group 2: Geopolitical Dynamics of U.S.-Russia Cooperation - Any U.S.-Russia cooperation on rare earths would require compromises regarding the Ukraine conflict, which presents significant geopolitical challenges [7]. - Russia has limited rare earth extraction and processing capabilities, producing only 2,700 tons of rare earth concentrate in 2024, which is less than 1.5% of global production [11]. Group 3: Ukraine's Rare Earth Resource Development - Ukraine claims to have $14.8 trillion in mineral resources, but the actual exploitable rare earth reserves are questionable, with many located in Russian-controlled areas [8][12]. - The development of Ukrainian rare earth resources faces significant technical and cost challenges, making it difficult for the U.S. to bypass Russian control [8]. Group 4: China's Dominance in Rare Earths - China controls the entire rare earth production process, from exploration to processing, and has a significant cost advantage over international competitors [9][10]. - China's strategic partnerships and dynamic adjustments to its rare earth reserves position it as an indispensable player in the global supply chain [9]. Group 5: Potential U.S. Actions Against China - If U.S.-Russia rare earth cooperation succeeds, the U.S. may escalate technological restrictions and economic sanctions against China, including expanding export controls on strategic resources [10][13]. - The U.S. may also engage in military provocations in regions like the South China Sea to complement its rare earth strategy [14]. Group 6: China's Response Strategies - China is likely to enhance its technological barriers and invest in green extraction technologies to maintain its competitive edge in rare earths [15]. - Strengthening cooperation with Russia and other emerging markets through strategic partnerships will be crucial for China to counter U.S. moves [16][17]. - China may implement stricter export controls and blacklist entities that violate its trade regulations, reinforcing its position in the global rare earth market [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a series of upcoming live broadcasts hosted by Tian Tian Fund, focusing on various investment topics, including technology competition, Hong Kong stock investments, and automotive industry upgrades. Group 1: Upcoming Live Broadcasts - On August 5, 2023, at 13:30, the theme will be "August Asset Outlook: Bull-Bear Distinction and Yield Allocation Guide," featuring guest Shi Chihao from China Merchants Jinling Fund [4]. - On August 5, 2023, at 14:30, the topic will be "Investment Perspectives on AI Servers under the China-US Technology Competition," with guests He Xiaohan and Ma Yinxie from Beixin Ruifeng Fund [8]. - On August 5, 2023, at 16:00, the discussion will focus on "Unlocking the Underlying Logic of Hong Kong Stock Investment," featuring guest Liu Jing from ICBC Credit Suisse Fund [10]. Group 2: Additional Broadcasts - On August 6, 2023, at 09:30, the theme will be "Development Trends of AGI," with guest Li Bo from Jianxin Fund [13]. - On August 6, 2023, at 10:30, the topic will be "How to Invest in Smart Cars in the Second Half of 2025," featuring guest Wang Zheyu from Hongyi Yuanfang Fund [15]. - On August 6, 2023, at 14:30, the theme will be "Saying Goodbye to Whole Vehicle Competition: Is the Golden Investment Window for Components Open?" with guests Yu Junhua and Ma Yinxie from Beixin Ruifeng Fund [17]. Group 3: Further Insights - On August 7, 2023, at 16:00, the discussion will be on "Resource Dominance: Analysis of the Value of Rare Metal Allocation," featuring guest Shi Baojiao from ICBC Credit Suisse Fund [18]. - On August 8, 2023, at 14:00, the theme will be "Where are the Investment Opportunities in the AI Application Industry?" with guests Cheng Min and Ma Yinxie [20]. - On August 8, 2023, at 15:00, the topic will be "Analyzing High Growth in Emerging Consumer Tracks," featuring guest Wang Jing from Qianhai United Fund [22].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is at a strategic crossroads, with its deepening layout in the U.S. potentially altering its governance logic, balancing security and commercial interests as a future challenge [3][4]. Group 1: TSMC's Transformation - TSMC is entering an unprecedented transformation period, marked by its announcement of large-scale manufacturing facilities in the U.S. [4]. - The company's key deployments in wafer manufacturing, packaging testing, and R&D are driving it towards a deeper "Americanization" [4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Context - The influence of geopolitical factors on high-end manufacturing is becoming increasingly significant, with TSMC's U.S. layout appearing as a policy-driven collaboration plan [4]. - Amid rising global tech competition and supply chain security becoming a priority for governments, TSMC's expansion in the U.S. may play a crucial role in maintaining the U.S.'s leading position in the global semiconductor industry and reviving its manufacturing sector [4].

Core Viewpoint - The global technology sector is facing a "rare earth crisis" due to a significant drop in rare earth imports from Myanmar, which has led to supply chain vulnerabilities and geopolitical tensions [1][9]. Group 1: Supply Chain Vulnerability - In the first nine months of 2024, China imported 31,000 tons of rare earth oxides from Myanmar, accounting for 74.9% of its total imports, highlighting the dependency on Myanmar for critical rare earth elements [3]. - The domestic production of medium and heavy rare earths in China is severely limited, with a quota of only 19,200 tons in 2024, while imports from Myanmar exceed domestic capacity by 1.6 times, fulfilling 56% of China's heavy rare earth demand [3]. - The sudden control of mining areas by the Kachin Independence Army in October 2024 led to a halt in operations, causing a surge in rare earth prices and raising concerns about supply shortages for companies heavily reliant on these imports [4]. Group 2: Price Fluctuations and Market Reactions - Following the disruption in supply, the stock prices of northern rare earth companies rose by 11.58% in one week, and the price of dysprosium oxide surged by 8% in the same period [4]. - A 7.9 magnitude earthquake in Myanmar in April 2025 further exacerbated the situation, with estimated export volumes dropping by 30% to 50%, and dysprosium prices nearing 2 million yuan per ton [4]. Group 3: Corporate Responses and Adaptations - Chinese companies are implementing strategies to mitigate the impact of the crisis, such as reducing dysprosium usage in magnets by 30% and increasing recycling rates of rare earth materials from waste [6]. - The North Rare Earth Company is ramping up production at its Baiyun Obo mine, benefiting from exclusive mining rights amid rising prices [6]. - Companies are also exploring overseas sourcing options, including projects in the U.S. and Malaysia, although these alternatives cannot fully replace the heavy rare earths sourced from Myanmar [6]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Environmental Considerations - The crisis has highlighted the complex interplay between technology competition, geopolitical dynamics, and environmental responsibilities, with the U.S. attempting to leverage environmental reports to pressure Myanmar into halting exports to China [9]. - China's investment of 38 billion yuan in rare earth pollution control has become a strategic tool, promoting sustainable mining practices in Myanmar and potentially reshaping the operational landscape to align with Chinese standards [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to restart "China-U.S. Technology Relations 2.0," arguing that decoupling is shortsighted and that cooperation is essential to address global challenges like climate change and public health [1] Group 1: U.S. Technology Landscape - There is an increasing emphasis on technology competition within the U.S., influenced by geopolitical considerations and a zero-sum mindset, stemming from anxieties over diminishing technological leadership [1][2] - The rise of "tech right" individuals in the U.S. has amplified the belief in technology as the primary driver of societal progress, advocating for reduced regulation and increased government investment in technology [1] - Some U.S. political figures view technological power as a means to reshape international rules and maintain dominance, which could reinforce America's global hegemonic status [1] Group 2: Competition vs. Cooperation - The concept of "winning" in competition should focus on healthy competition and mutual benefits rather than a zero-sum approach, as the latter can lead to monopolization and increased wealth disparity domestically [2] - Overemphasis on unilateral victories in international competition may overlook opportunities for collaboration and shared interests, potentially leading to a mindset of "winner-takes-all" [2] Group 3: Global Technological Cooperation - Countries must prioritize cooperation and shared progress in the face of disruptive technological changes, emphasizing technology accessibility and equitable sharing of technological benefits [3] - China has taken significant steps in promoting international cooperation in artificial intelligence, proposing initiatives aimed at ensuring that developing countries can equally benefit from technological advancements [3] Group 4: China's Role in Global Innovation - China is emerging as a global leader in innovation, transitioning from a knowledge receiver to a key producer and standard-setter in various advanced fields [4] - The dynamics of China-U.S. technology relations have shifted from a highly asymmetric structure to a more balanced one, with China playing a crucial role in shaping global technology agendas and rules [4] - The promotion of an open, fair, and non-discriminatory global technology development environment is essential for sustainable innovation and collective human welfare [4]

Core Viewpoint - The discovery of high-purity quartz ore in China marks a significant breakthrough, potentially altering the landscape of key material supply and reducing dependency on foreign sources, particularly the United States [1][12]. Group 1: Importance of High-Purity Quartz - High-purity quartz is essential for high-tech applications, including semiconductor chips and solar panels, due to its high temperature resistance, corrosion resistance, and excellent insulation properties [3][10]. - Prior to this discovery, China relied heavily on imports of high-purity quartz sand, spending approximately 13.16 billion on imports last year, which created a significant financial burden and dependency on foreign suppliers [6][18]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The discovery allows China to produce high-purity quartz with a purity of over 99.995%, comparable to the best global sources, thus enhancing domestic production capabilities and reducing reliance on imports [8][10]. - This new resource is expected to improve the yield rates for chip manufacturers by at least 8% and reduce costs in the solar industry by 15%, providing a strategic advantage in technology development [10][20]. Group 3: Impact on US-China Relations - The timing of this discovery is crucial amid escalating trade tensions and technology restrictions from the US, as it undermines the US's leverage over China in critical technology sectors [12][15]. - By securing its own supply of high-purity quartz, China effectively counters US tariffs and resource control strategies, shifting the balance of power in its favor [16][18]. Group 4: Future Prospects - The discovery is seen as a pivotal moment for China's technological independence, enabling the country to enhance its manufacturing capabilities and innovation potential [20][21]. - This development not only alleviates immediate resource constraints but also positions China favorably in the ongoing global technology competition [20].

Group 1 - China's Ministry of Commerce stated that as long as applications meet regulations, exports of rare earths will be approved, and this policy is not targeted at specific countries [1][10] - The tightening of rare earth export controls has led to significant disruptions in global high-tech supply chains, moving beyond typical trade friction [1][14] - The U.S. defense contractor Lockheed Martin has faced production halts of its F-35 fighter jets due to interruptions in the supply of high-performance neodymium-iron-boron magnets, resulting in losses of millions of dollars [2][14] Group 2 - Tesla is experiencing supply chain issues related to rare earth materials needed for its electric motors, threatening the production schedule of its Model series [4][14] - The German automotive industry, represented by major manufacturers like BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Volkswagen, warned that a disruption in Chinese rare earth supplies lasting over three months could lead to a large-scale paralysis of the European automotive industry [5][14] - Japanese automaker Suzuki had to suspend production at its Shizuoka plant due to a shortage of specific rare earth elements from China, highlighting the direct impact of supply chain tensions on manufacturing [5][14] Group 3 - The U.S. government's response to the rare earth control issue has been inconsistent, with President Trump pressuring China to ease export controls while simultaneously imposing technology sanctions [7][8] - This dual strategy of demanding rare earths while restricting technology reveals deep contradictions in U.S. policy, which has inadvertently spurred advancements in China's technology sector [8][12] - China's export control system for rare earths is based on international trade rules and aims to ensure the stability of global supply chains [10][16] Group 4 - The international competition over rare earths reflects a clash of national strategic thinking, with China having built the world's largest and most complete rare earth industry system over the past decade [12][16] - Despite having rich rare earth deposits, the U.S. remains heavily reliant on China for processing due to long-term neglect of domestic refining capabilities and environmental regulations [14][16] - The rare earth issue has become a focal point in global supply chain dynamics, emphasizing the vulnerabilities in high-tech industries such as electric vehicles, smartphones, and wind turbines [14][16]

Group 1 - China's exports to the US have declined for three consecutive months, while US imports from China have not significantly increased, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [2] - The US is facing persistent inflation, with the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates, while the Biden administration struggles to balance trade policies and domestic pressures [2][6] - The agricultural sector in the US is feeling the impact of trade tensions, as evidenced by the cancellation of a significant pork order from China, highlighting the political ramifications of trade policies [2] Group 2 - The ongoing US-China competition has evolved from trade to technology and geopolitical strategies, with both countries attempting to leverage their respective strengths [4] - China's GDP growth in the first quarter was 5.2%, driven largely by domestic consumption, indicating resilience despite export challenges [4] - The export of new energy vehicles from China surged by 60%, reflecting strong global demand and market confidence [4] Group 3 - The solar panel and lithium battery sectors in China are facing overcapacity issues, leading to longer inventory turnover periods and operational challenges for manufacturers [6] - In the US, the imposition of reciprocal tariffs has backfired, contributing to rising inflation and increased costs for consumers [6][8] - Walmart is struggling to maintain its low-price model due to supply chain disruptions and rising costs, which could impact its sales performance [8] Group 4 - China's technology sector continues to face challenges from US restrictions, but there are signs of resilience, such as advancements in Huawei's chip capabilities and increased domestic production [9] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with US allies navigating their own interests, leading to a complex web of trade relationships [9][11] - The competition between the US and China is characterized by a struggle for strategic endurance and institutional resilience, rather than a clear winner [11][13]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the "rare earth crisis" faced by the Trump administration, highlighting the strategic importance of rare earth exports controlled by China [1][3] - The U.S. is heavily reliant on rare earths for modern technology, and any supply chain disruptions could significantly impact American tech giants like Tesla [3][5] - China's response to U.S. tariffs includes targeted countermeasures affecting coal, crude oil, and key metals, indicating a strategic approach to counter U.S. pressure [5][7] Group 2 - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions are characterized by a complex interplay of tariffs and strategic resources, with both sides holding significant leverage [7][9] - The competition extends beyond trade to include technology and geopolitical influence, with both nations seeking to balance cooperation and competition [9][11] - Future dialogues between U.S. and Chinese leaders will likely address broader economic order issues, with potential global implications [11]