Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic landscape at the beginning of 2026 is complex, showcasing a resilient picture of the domestic economy that is progressing towards improvement, contrasting with the market's focus on "structural differentiation" [1] Economic Overview - The domestic economy is advancing under pressure, with ongoing construction of a modern industrial system and positive progress in risk mitigation in key areas, despite challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low price levels [4] - The U.S. economy is experiencing moderate expansion, with slowing job growth and a slight increase in unemployment, while inflation remains high, prompting the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates [4] Market Indicators - In Q4 2025, the manufacturing PMI improved from 49 to 50.1, indicating marginal improvement [4] - External trade demonstrated strong resilience, with continuous enhancement in export competitiveness [4] - The real estate market in some cities is stabilizing but still exhibits volatility [4] - Monetary policy maintained a reasonably ample liquidity environment to support economic recovery, with average DR001 and DR007 rates decreasing by 15 basis points and 3 basis points respectively compared to Q3 2025 [4] Bond Market Performance - The yield on 10-year government bonds slightly decreased from 1.86% at the end of Q3 2025 to 1.85% in Q4 2025, showing minimal change [4] - The fund manager adjusted leverage and duration according to market conditions during this period, aiming to ensure safety while striving for stable returns for clients [4]

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic landscape at the beginning of 2026 is complex, showcasing a resilient picture of the domestic economy that is progressing steadily towards improvement, contrasting with the market's focus on "structural differentiation" [1] Economic Overview - The domestic economy is advancing under pressure, with ongoing construction of a modern industrial system and positive progress in risk mitigation in key areas, although challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low price levels persist [4][9] - The U.S. economy is experiencing moderate expansion, with slowing job growth and a slight increase in unemployment, while inflation remains high and the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates [4][9] Market Indicators - In Q4, the manufacturing PMI improved from 49 to 50.1, indicating marginal improvement [4][9] - External trade shows strong resilience, with continuous enhancement in export competitiveness [4][9] - Some cities' real estate markets are stabilizing but still exhibit volatility during the recovery phase [4][9] - The average rates for DR001 and DR007 were 1.33% and 1.47%, respectively, down by 15 basis points and 3 basis points compared to Q3 2025 [4][9] - The yield on 10-year government bonds slightly decreased from 1.86% at the end of Q3 2025 to 1.85% [4][9] Fund Management Strategy - The fund manager adjusted leverage and duration based on market conditions during this period, aiming to ensure safety while striving for stable returns for clients [4][9]

近期，经济运行仍处在修复过程中，结构性特征逐步显现，债券市场的讨论也持续展开。在这种背景 下，华商鸿裕利率债债券基金经理杜钧天在基金定期报告中结合宏观环境变化，阐述了债券市场的运行 逻辑。 杜钧天 华商鸿裕利率债债券基金经理 华商鸿益一年定期开放债券发起式基金经理 华商鸿源三个月定开纯债债券基金经理 杜钧天，具有10.6年证券从业经历，其中1.5年证券交易经历，1.8年证券研究经历，6.6年证券投资经 历。2024年4月加入华商基金管理有限公司，现任华商鸿裕利率债债券、华商鸿益一年定期开放债券发 起式、华商鸿畅39个月定期开放利率债债券、华商鸿源三个月定开纯债债券的基金经理。 他在基金定期报告中回顾道，自四季度以来，国内宏观经济表现出弱稳的态势，全年GDP增速逐季回 落，而通胀修复则呈现出结构性特征。内需和信贷数据表明，居民部门仍是经济中的短板，尽管如此， 债券市场对明年经济增长和通胀的预期有所改善，这一现象并未因短板而受到显著压制。反而，由于政 策的积极变化，市场的信心得到了提振。 杜钧天指出，政府的"反内卷政策"通过减少无效竞争并推动供给端价格的稳定，尤其是在部分工业品价 格方面，为价格提供了相对清晰的政 ...