格隆汇12月23日｜中信证券发布报告，展望2026年，预计我国宏观经济将呈现结构分化下的温和修复态势，经济增速或前低后高，出口保持韧性，投 资逐步回暖，商品消费短期承压。A股市场：展望2026年，A股全球营收敞口企业已不局限于少数公司，而足以推动整个A股的行情，未来A股的基本面 要放在全球市场需求去看。中美签署协议后到美国中期选举前，预计中美格局相对最稳定，这个阶段是做多权益市场的黄金期。从市场流动性来看， 追求稳健回报的绝对收益资金持续入市，一定程度上将推动A股宽基指数波动率步入长期下行通道。建议重视三大线索：①资源/传统制造产业提质升 级；②中企出海与全球化；③新应用打开AI商业化空间。 全球市场：2026年全球经济或进入更柔和而明朗的增长基调，美国经济应能温和增长、欧元区内需有望修复、日本表现或不温不火，财政扩张料将支 持经济动能。美联储独立性与美元信用是资产配置的核心影响因素。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 债券市场：利率债方面，预计2026年10年国债收益率或在1.6%~1.9%区间震荡，呈"先下后上"节奏；信用债方面，科创债的扩容发行或重塑2026年的信 用主线；可转债挑战重重，机遇仍存 ...

华创证券指出，11月出口增速反弹超预期（较上月高7个点）有基数的影响（5个点左右），也有需求韧 性的支撑。一是11月我国制造业PMI新出口订单大幅修复且各行业全面回升，二是出口边际增长动能有 所恢复。9—11月环比平均1.1%，与历史同期均值相近，Q3出口月度环比均值仅有0.4%（大幅低于过去 十年同期平均1.4%）。往后看，月度视角下，12月基数抬升，或带来同比读数2—3个点的调整压力。 季度视角下，领先指标显示外需环境稳健，电子链或继续助力增长。半年至一年维度下，货币宽松累积 效应驱动的稳定外需环境+机电出口景气，或支撑出口维持偏强韧性。 中原证券指出，周二A股市场冲高遇阻、小幅震荡整理，早盘股指低开后震荡上行，盘中沪指在3923点 附近遭遇阻力，随后股指震荡回落，盘中商业百货、电子元件、光伏设备以及医疗服务等行业表现较 好；有色金属、能源金属、贵金属以及钢铁等行业表现较弱，沪指全天基本呈现小幅整理的运行特征。 当前国内经济宏观面处于温和修复但基础仍需巩固的状态。中长期支撑本轮A股上涨的基础并未发生转 变。在政策暖风、资金改善的合力下，市场再度向上运行的可能性正在增加。预计上证指数围绕4000点 附近蓄势 ...

Group 1 - The highway industry has entered a mature phase with slowed growth in operational mileage, characterized by heavy assets, long cycles, and stable returns, with a recovery in profitability expected in the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - The 13 listed highway companies showed a stable historical performance, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.8% in revenue from 2015 to 2024, and a 4.1% year-on-year decline in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025; net profit CAGR was 5.9%, with a 3.7% growth rate in the same period [1] - The gross and net profit margins are expected to improve in the first three quarters of 2025 [1] Group 2 - Passenger turnover for highways is projected to maintain stable growth, with a slight increase of 0.19% year-on-year to 4,278 billion person-kilometers from January to October 2025, driven by rising demand for inter-regional travel [2] - Freight turnover reached 65,484.48 billion ton-kilometers during the same period, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.71%, indicating stable growth in highway freight volume as the macro economy continues to recover [2] Group 3 - The construction costs of highways are rising, and the revenue-expenditure gap is expanding, with significant demands for raising toll standards and extending operating periods; as of 2021, the revenue-expenditure gap for repayable and operational highways was approximately 250 billion and 350 billion yuan, respectively [3] - There have been instances of toll increases in certain regions, particularly in the central and western areas, which have lower tolls compared to the eastern regions, indicating a stronger demand for adjustments [3] Group 4 - The highway sector has shown a cumulative increase of about 35% from 2014 to 2024, outperforming the broader market (with the CSI 300 index rising 11% in the same period), and has a competitive advantage in dividend yield compared to other high-dividend sectors [4] - The decline in interest rates is expected to reduce financial costs, thereby enhancing the profits of listed highway companies [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has recently maintained above 3500 points, but the significance of this level is primarily psychological, and a breakthrough does not necessarily indicate a trend formation. Future focus should be on macroeconomic recovery [1] - The A-share market is expected to experience a recovery in return on equity (ROE) driven by three main factors: the reduction of internal competition, strengthening of overseas manufacturing boosting exports, and the cessation of debt contraction [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In Q2, actual GDP growth was 5.2% year-on-year, while nominal growth was 3.9%, remaining stable compared to Q2 of the previous year. Industrial output, exports, and retail sales showed mixed results, with industrial output increasing by 6.4% year-on-year [2] - The decline in retail sales is attributed to significant drops in sectors such as dining, tobacco, beverages, and cosmetics, as well as disruptions from national subsidy promotion policies [2] Group 3: Industry Insights - The cement industry is experiencing its lowest operating rates since 2019, with production continuing to decline since 2022. However, price indices have started to rebound since mid-2024 [4][5] - Capital expenditure growth has been negative since 2023, but ROE is expected to stabilize and recover by Q2 2024, indicating a potential bottoming out of capital returns across various industries [4] Group 4: Liquidity and Credit Expansion - M1 money supply has seen significant growth due to strong financing in June, which has increased the amount of demand deposits for enterprises. The easing of debt repayment pressures is also contributing to this liquidity expansion [9] - Social financing increased by 4.2 trillion yuan in June, surpassing expectations, indicating a credit expansion that supports economic recovery [9] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Traditional industries such as coal, oil, steel, transportation, utilities, real estate, and non-bank financials still have a significant proportion of stocks with low price-to-book (PB) ratios, suggesting better value compared to TMT and high-end manufacturing sectors [12][13] - Investors are advised to focus on ETFs related to construction materials, steel, coal, and oil, as these sectors may offer higher returns based on current market conditions [13]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced fluctuations today, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.03% at 3503.78 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext both fell by 0.22%. The Sci-Tech Innovation Board rose by 0.44% [1] - Total trading volume across the three markets was 1.46 trillion yuan, a decrease of 173.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The market sentiment appears balanced but slightly strong, with nearly 3300 stocks rising, indicating a preference for small-cap stocks over large-cap ones [1] Economic Indicators - The second quarter GDP growth was reported at 5.2% year-on-year, with nominal growth at 3.9%, remaining stable compared to Q2 of the previous year [2] - Industrial output, exports, and retail sales showed slight changes, with industrial output at 6.4%, exports at 5.9%, and retail sales at 5.0% [2] - The decline in retail sales is attributed to a significant drop in sectors like dining and beverages, indicating a potential impact on consumer sentiment [2] Price Trends - The cement industry is experiencing a downturn, with the operating rate at its lowest since 2019, and a continuous decline in production since 2022 [3] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to stabilize and recover by Q2 2024, suggesting a potential bottoming out of capital returns across various sectors [3] Liquidity Conditions - M1 money supply has seen a significant increase due to strong financing in June, leading to higher demand for current deposits [5] - Social financing grew by 4.2 trillion yuan in June, exceeding expectations, indicating an expansion in credit and economic recovery [5] - The debt repayment pressure on enterprises is easing, suggesting a potential end to the current debt repayment cycle [5] Sector Performance - Traditional industries such as coal, oil, and steel are expected to have greater recovery potential compared to TMT and high-end manufacturing sectors, which have seen a significant reduction in low PB stocks [7] - The current market shows a low percentage of stocks with a PB below 20%, indicating a potential shift in investment focus towards traditional sectors [7] Livestock Industry Insights - The pig farming sector is currently facing a supply-driven price fluctuation, with prices rising from 14.1 yuan/kg to 15.1 yuan/kg before experiencing a slight decline [11] - The supply of breeding sows is increasing, which may exert downward pressure on prices in the near term [12] - Despite short-term price rebounds, the overall supply-demand imbalance suggests continued challenges for the livestock market [12]

Group 1 - The macroeconomic environment in China continues to show signs of recovery, with the manufacturing PMI slightly increasing to 49.7% in June from 49.5% in May, indicating a prolonged contraction phase [2] - The consumer price index (CPI) remained stable with a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, while the producer price index (PPI) saw a larger decline of 3.3% compared to a 2.7% drop in April, reflecting pressures in production material prices [2] - The stock market experienced a broad rally in June, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rising by 2.90% and 4.23% respectively, driven by positive investor sentiment following U.S.-China trade discussions [3][4] Group 2 - The bond market showed a downward trend in yields, with 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bond yields decreasing by 12 basis points, 5 basis points, and 2 basis points to 1.34%, 1.51%, and 1.65% respectively [5] - The overall bond market returned a positive performance, with the China Bond Index rising by 0.59% in June, indicating a favorable environment for fixed-income investments [5] Group 3 - The U.S. macroeconomic indicators showed mixed results, with the Markit Composite PMI at 52.9%, while the Eurozone manufacturing PMI remained in contraction at 49.5% [6] - Global stock indices exhibited varied performance, with the S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 increasing by 4.96% and 6.64% respectively, while European indices like the FTSE 100 and DAX saw slight declines [6] Group 4 - In June, equity funds, particularly small-cap and growth-style funds, outperformed large-cap funds, with the average returns for small-cap mixed funds and mid-cap growth funds at 6.02% and 5.77% respectively [18] - Fixed-income funds also recorded positive returns, with convertible bond funds leading at 3.47%, followed by actively managed bond funds at 1.13% [19] Group 5 - QDII funds showed strong performance, particularly in the global emerging markets mixed funds, which achieved an average return of 12.67% in June, benefiting from favorable conditions in international markets [28]

Economic Data Overview - In May, industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, down from 6.1% in April; retail sales grew by 6.4%, up from 5.1% in April; fixed asset investment accumulated a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, down from 4.0% in April [1][7] - The economic data indicates a mild recovery with notable differentiation across sectors, characterized by strong consumption, stable production, and sluggish investment [1][7] Consumption Insights - Retail sales reached 41,326 billion yuan in May, marking a 6.4% year-on-year increase, the highest growth rate since 2024 [12][14] - Durable goods consumption surged significantly, with home appliances and audio-visual equipment retail sales soaring by 53.0% year-on-year, a record monthly growth [14] - The "old-for-new" policy and early promotions for the "618" shopping festival have stimulated consumer spending, but future consumption momentum may weaken as policy benefits diminish [17][12] Industrial Performance - The industrial production growth rate showed a slight decline, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% in May, while maintaining a month-on-month growth of 0.6% [18][21] - High-tech manufacturing continues to lead industrial growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 2.8 percentage points [21][18] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment grew by 3.7% year-on-year in the first five months, with manufacturing investment at 8.5% and infrastructure investment at 5.6%, indicating resilience [24][27] - Real estate investment remains under pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 10.7%, reflecting a significant drop in sales area and sales volume [28][29] Policy Impact - The central bank has maintained a moderately loose monetary policy, implementing measures such as a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate reductions to support economic recovery [7][8] - Active fiscal policies are also in place, with plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special bonds, including 300 billion yuan to support the "old-for-new" consumption initiative [8][7]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant progress made in the recent high-level economic and trade talks between China and the United States, leading to a substantial reduction in bilateral tariffs, which positively impacted the Hong Kong stock market [1][2][3] - The U.S. has canceled a total of 91% of the additional tariffs, while China has reciprocated by canceling 91% of its counter-tariffs, along with both sides suspending the implementation of 24% "reciprocal tariffs" [2][3] - The Hong Kong stock market showed a strong response, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.98% and the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 5.16% [2] Group 2 - The macroeconomic outlook for China is expected to improve, with potential GDP growth around 4.9% for 2025, despite previous concerns regarding the impact of U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports [3][4] - Recent policies aimed at stabilizing the economy, such as interest rate cuts and measures to boost domestic demand, are anticipated to yield positive effects, further supporting the recovery of the macroeconomic environment [4][15] - Historical analysis indicates that previous surges in the Hong Kong stock market were driven by factors such as economic conditions, liquidity, and technological advancements, suggesting a favorable environment for future growth [15][16] Group 3 - The technology sector in Hong Kong is expected to benefit from the implementation of AI applications and rising domestic demand, with a strong outlook for profitability and policy support [16] - The pharmaceutical sector is also poised for growth, driven by advancements in AI healthcare and favorable policies, with a focus on innovative drug development [16] - The automotive sector in Hong Kong is transitioning towards "intelligentization," presenting opportunities for investment in leading technologies and industry leaders [16]

Group 1: Economic Environment and Policy Changes - The March PMI showed a steady upward trend, alleviating previous concerns about small businesses and construction resumption post-holiday[4] - The focus of consumption policies has shifted towards pre-consumption factors such as income, credit, and social security, marking a new phase in consumption policy[6] - The introduction of birth support policies is part of a broader "talent competition," with various measures to attract graduates and support families[7] Group 2: Consumer and Investment Trends - In January-February, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4% year-on-year, up from 3.7% at the end of last year[18] - Real estate investment saw a narrowing of negative growth to -9.8%, improving from -10.6% previously[18] - The sales of commercial housing in Hubei Tianmen increased by 6.1% year-on-year, indicating a potential link to birth policies that encourage home purchases[9] Group 3: Credit and Financing Developments - Personal consumption loan growth has slowed significantly, dropping to 1.4% in January-February from over 15% in 2018-2019[13] - New policies aim to support personal credit recovery, allowing banks to extend loan repayment terms for borrowers facing difficulties[11] - The issuance of local government bonds increased significantly, with a total of 16,967 billion yuan in new government bonds issued in February, up 10,956 billion yuan year-on-year[24]

Group 1 - The article discusses the gradual economic recovery observed in 2016, characterized by a slow increase in the economic "floor" despite not being a strong recovery year [1][3][4] - The PMI averages for each quarter in 2016 were 49.5, 50.1, 50.2, and 51.4, indicating a gradual improvement in manufacturing activity [2][3] - The article draws parallels between the economic conditions of 2016 and expectations for 2025, suggesting that both years may experience similar economic dynamics with gradual improvements in consumer spending and local investment [4][5] Group 2 - In March 2023, global markets experienced a "Risk off" mode, with gold prices reaching new highs while U.S. stock indices faced downward pressure due to inflation concerns and new tariffs [5][6] - The article highlights the mixed performance of commodities, with gold and silver prices rising, while copper prices fluctuated due to tariff-related speculation [6][7] - The article notes that the U.S. consumer spending showed cautious growth, with personal income rising by 0.8% in February, but actual consumer spending only increasing by 0.1%, indicating a cautious consumer sentiment [9][10] Group 3 - The article mentions that the monetary policy focus may shift towards total easing in the second quarter, with social financing growth expected to be around 8.1%-8.2% [11][12] - It discusses the construction industry's performance, indicating low physical work volume but an expectation for accelerated issuance of special bonds in the second quarter [12][13] - The article also addresses the potential impact of reciprocal tariffs on U.S. average tariff rates, estimating an increase of approximately 13.3 percentage points [14] Group 4 - The article reports on the stabilization of domestic industrial product prices, particularly in steel and building materials, while consumer goods prices showed weak fluctuations [15] - It highlights the government's initiatives to support employment in key sectors and the introduction of carbon trading mechanisms for high-emission industries [16]