野村- 结构分化进入下半场？20251229 摘要 A 股和港股在阶段性缓和的中美关系背景下表现良好，哑铃策略聚焦流 动性改善下的结构性行情，兼顾科技成长和红利资产配置，受益于市场 流动性充裕。 预计 2026 年 A 股市场将延续结构性分化，体现在行业景气度、企业盈 亏和内外需动能三个方面，由科技创新、经营头部化和外需拉动共同推 动。 将沪深 300 指数 2026 年和 2027 年的盈利预测分别调升至 7.2%和 8.4%，指数上涨更多依赖基本面推动，投资机会偏向结构性。 资金面关注制造类高附加值商品出海、审美出海以及增量资金被动化特 征，OCI 政策执行后，偏红利类央国企股票对保险公司吸引力大增。 TMT 板块成交热度居高不下，科技板块逐渐成为大市值，对市场风向产 生引导作用，被动基金等增量资金入市也推升了成交热度。 经济结构转型对 A 股盈利结构产生显著影响，科创板块净利润占比持续 提升，而金融地产板块的营收和净利润占比下降。 内外需分化导致海外营收占比较高公司的贡献不断攀升，这些公司的营 收和净利润在全 A 股的占比持续扩张，受益于国内需求疲软。 Q&A 2025 年 A 股市场的整体表现如何？有 ...

今年，指数化投资的市场认可度显著提升，公募ETF（交易型开放式指数基金）再次迎来发展大 年：产品数量和规模双双跃升，市场关注度持续升温，更多公募基金公司加速布局创新产品，更多投资 者也将目光投向ETF等指数产品。 政策也在推动指数产品发展。今年5月，证监会发布的《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》提 及，"大力发展各类场内外指数基金""实施ETF快速注册机制"。围绕2025年ETF的最新进展及下一步走 向，《国际金融报》记者近日采访了华泰柏瑞基金指数投资部副总监谭弘翔。 谭弘翔指出，公募ETF今年呈现结构性分化，后续市场仍将快速发展，且具有跨周期特征，产品种 类与形态有望更加多元。 结构分化 "结构性分化"是谭弘翔眼中今年ETF最突出的关键词，集中体现在两条主线： 一是债券ETF的"井喷"。Wind数据显示，2025年4月15日至12月15日短短八个月，债券ETF资金净 流入高达4189亿元。"说明真实需求一直存在，只是过去缺少足够多样的工具去匹配。"谭弘翔指出，目 前无论是利率债还是信用债ETF都能找到较大的应用场景，新发的科创债ETF更是有力地支持了科创债 市场建设，折射出资本市场直面资金与资产错配所迸发的 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The disparity in online retail penetration between China (30%) and the U.S. (16%) is significant, indicating different market dynamics and maturity levels [1][2] - U.S. e-commerce is not merely lagging behind but is in a mature market with strong offline competitors like Walmart and Costco, leading to structural differentiation rather than total growth [2][3] - The U.S. retail landscape is characterized by a robust offline infrastructure that complicates the growth of e-commerce, as traditional retailers provide high efficiency and experience [4][5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The U.S. e-commerce market, valued at over $1.1 trillion, is supported by a $7 trillion retail base, despite a lower penetration rate [4] - The competition in the U.S. e-commerce space is shifting towards specific niches where traditional retailers cannot compete, such as extreme low pricing, traffic stimulation, and fresh food delivery [4][10] - Amazon, while still a leader, faces challenges from low-cost competitors and content-driven e-commerce platforms like TikTok Shop, which leverage social media for sales [5][9] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Companies like Temu and Shein are disrupting the U.S. market by utilizing Chinese supply chains to offer low prices without the burden of high logistics costs [7][8] - TikTok Shop is transforming its video content into e-commerce opportunities, presenting a new avenue for merchants seeking alternatives to Amazon [9] - Walmart has successfully adapted to the e-commerce landscape by utilizing its extensive store network for efficient fresh food delivery, surpassing Amazon in this segment [12] Group 4: Key Companies - **Amazon (AMZN)**: Despite facing competition, Amazon maintains a strong retail market share of approximately 37% and continues to perform well in core categories like consumer electronics [13][14] - **Walmart (WMT)**: Walmart is evolving into a full-channel giant, with its e-commerce business growing over 20% for seven consecutive quarters, driven by its fresh food offerings [15] - **PDD Holdings (PDD)**: Temu is transitioning to a model that enhances its pricing power and logistics efficiency, targeting Amazon's mid-tier merchant ecosystem [16] - **Shopify (SHOP)**: Shopify is leveraging AI to enhance traffic distribution and improve monetization rates, moving beyond its initial role as a platform provider [17] - **Instacart (CART)**: Instacart dominates the U.S. third-party fresh food delivery market, with a significant portion of its revenue coming from high-margin advertising [18]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant disparity in online retail penetration between China and the U.S., with China's online retail sales approaching 30% while the U.S. remains around 16%. This difference is attributed to the maturity of the U.S. retail market, which is dominated by strong offline players like Walmart and Costco, leading to a more complex competitive landscape for e-commerce in the U.S. [4][5][6] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. e-commerce market is not simply lagging behind China but is characterized by a mature offline retail system that provides high efficiency and experience, making it difficult for e-commerce to replace traditional retail. Instead, e-commerce serves as a supplement to offline shopping [5][6]. - The U.S. retail market, valued at $7 trillion, supports a substantial e-commerce sector worth over $1.1 trillion, despite a lower penetration rate [6]. - The competitive landscape in the U.S. is shifting from total growth to structural differentiation, focusing on specific niches where traditional retailers cannot compete effectively, such as extreme low prices, traffic stimulation, and fresh food delivery [6][13]. Group 2: Competitive Challenges - Amazon, while still a leader in infrastructure, faces significant challenges from low-cost competitors and new traffic sources, particularly from companies like Temu and Shein, which leverage Chinese supply chains to offer lower prices without the need for expensive logistics in the U.S. [8][10][11]. - TikTok Shop is emerging as a powerful player in the e-commerce space, converting its vast short video traffic into purchasing power, contrasting with Amazon's traditional search-based model [12]. - In the fresh grocery segment, Walmart has overtaken Amazon with a 25% market share compared to Amazon's 22%, due to Walmart's effective use of its extensive store network to reduce delivery costs and enhance customer experience [15]. Group 3: Key Companies - **Amazon (AMZN)**: Despite facing competition, Amazon maintains a strong retail market share of around 37% and continues to perform well in core categories, such as consumer electronics [17]. - **Walmart (WMT)**: Walmart is transforming from a traditional supermarket to a full-channel giant, with its e-commerce business growing over 20% for seven consecutive quarters, now accounting for 20% of its total retail sales [20]. - **PDD Holdings (PDD)**: Temu is evolving from a fully managed model to a semi-managed one, enhancing its supply chain capabilities and integrating local inventory to compete with Amazon [21]. - **Shopify (SHOP)**: Shopify is shifting its growth narrative, focusing on AI-driven traffic distribution and financial services to enhance its revenue model [22]. - **Instacart (CART)**: Instacart dominates over 70% of the U.S. third-party grocery delivery market, with a growing high-margin advertising business contributing to its revenue [23].

Core Viewpoint - The report from交银国际 indicates that the mainland consumer market is expected to continue a moderate growth trend towards 2026, with slow overall demand growth but structural differentiation driven by rational consumption and demand upgrading [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The consumer market is undergoing a multi-dimensional transformation, evolving to be more consumer-centric [1] - There is a gradual construction of a new balance in the market, focusing on consumer demand and emphasizing operational efficiency improvements [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The report suggests a balanced investment strategy in the consumer sector, combining defensive sectors with stable cash flow and resilient demand as a foundation, while also actively seeking high-growth structural opportunities [1] - Close attention should be paid to new consumption trends and the potential for industry reshaping brought about by technological changes [1] Group 3: Focus Areas - Three categories of companies are highlighted for investment focus: 1. Companies benefiting from supply-demand improvements and expected to release profit elasticity through efficiency gains, such as申洲国际 and伊利 [1] 2. Segment leaders that are quick to capture consumption trends and have rapid growth potential, such as泡泡玛特 and名创优品 [1] 3. Industry leaders with solid growth foundations, strong moats, and cyclical resilience, such as安踏 and华润啤酒 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, the domestic infrastructure public REITs in the industrial park sector have shown a "rise and fall" trend, with significant structural differentiation. Analysts predict that in 2026, the operation of various public REIT projects will continue to fluctuate and differentiate, suggesting that institutions should cautiously allocate resources and focus on projects with strong fundamentals while seizing opportunities after valuation corrections [1][2][6]. Group 1: Performance and Market Dynamics - The industrial park REITs have faced pressure due to an imbalance between supply and demand, leading to a mixed performance where some projects suffer losses while others show resilience. For instance, the net profit of the Jianxin Zhongguancun Industrial Park REIT was -8.55 million yuan, while the Dongwu Suyuan Industrial REIT achieved a net profit of 28.47 million yuan [2][4]. - The market for industrial park REITs remains active, with new projects like the Huaxia Jinyu Zhizao Factory REIT attracting significant investment, raising 40.39 billion yuan with a subscription multiple of 288.78 times, indicating strong demand for quality assets [2][4]. Group 2: Structural Differentiation - The core characteristic of the industrial park REITs market in 2025 is structural differentiation across various dimensions, including regional layout, asset quality, and operational capability. Projects in core areas, such as Beijing's Haidian District, maintain stable occupancy rates, while non-core areas face high vacancy rates [4][5]. - The demand from tenants is evolving, shifting from a cost-centric approach to a comprehensive evaluation of support for industrial chains, policy backing, and resource integration, making parks that focus on innovation and smart manufacturing more competitive [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - The performance differentiation in industrial park REITs is expected to continue, but there is a long-term optimistic outlook for the sector. By the end of 2025, the total market size of public REITs is projected to reach 245 billion yuan, with industrial park REITs benefiting from industrial upgrades and the revitalization of existing assets [6][7]. - Investment strategies should focus on "quality, stability, and adaptability," prioritizing projects in core urban areas with high tenant quality and stable operations, while also considering reasonable valuation windows for entry [8].

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant shift in the Shanghai real estate market, where properties are being sold based on genuine living needs rather than speculative investments [1][14] - The rapid sale of a property in just 17 days illustrates the importance of "certainty" over price in the current market dynamics [3][6] Property Details - The property in question is a 110 square meter, three-bedroom apartment located near Shanghai's outer ring, listed at 5.65 million yuan, with a price per square meter of 51,000 yuan [3] - This price is competitive compared to the average new home price of 53,000 yuan and the average second-hand home price of 48,000 yuan in the same area [3] Market Dynamics - The average transaction cycle for second-hand homes in Shanghai is 45-60 days, making the 17-day sale a notable exception that indicates a strong alignment with market demand [3][6] - The buyer profile consists of a young couple needing stable schooling options and convenient transportation, reflecting a shift towards practical living requirements [3][10] Seller Strategy - The seller adjusted the listing price from 5.8 million yuan to 5.65 million yuan based on market observations, demonstrating a rational pricing strategy that builds buyer trust [5] - The final sale price of 5.65 million yuan is higher than previous sales in the same area, indicating a structural differentiation in the market where quality properties are experiencing slight price increases [6] Policy Impact - Recent policy changes in Shanghai, such as the "沪七条," have favored first-time homebuyers and self-occupiers while tightening conditions for investment purchases, further supporting genuine housing demand [6][10] - The increase in the proportion of "sell old to buy new" transactions to 65% indicates a growing trend of upgrading living conditions among buyers [10] Market Trends - The article notes a significant increase in the number of listings, with over 150,000 properties available, leading to a competitive environment where sellers may resort to price cuts to attract buyers [10][12] - The concept of "rational prosperity" is emerging, where buyers are increasingly discerning, focusing on comprehensive value rather than just location [12][14] Conclusion - The transaction serves as a reflection of the evolving Shanghai real estate landscape, where multiple factors such as location, product quality, policy, and demand structure collectively influence property prices [14][16] - The market is transitioning from a speculative to a more stable environment, emphasizing genuine living needs and rational purchasing decisions [14][16]

Core Insights - The report highlights a structural divergence in the prices of major production materials, with 23 out of 49 materials experiencing price increases, while 24 saw declines, indicating a mixed market environment [1][2][3] - Key price increases are observed in upstream coal and non-ferrous metals, particularly copper and aluminum, driven by replenishment demand and cost support [1][2] - Conversely, significant price drops are noted in agricultural products and certain chemicals, reflecting weak downstream consumption and excess supply pressures [1][2] Price Tracking of Major Production Materials - As of October 2025, coal prices have slightly rebounded to 670-680 RMB/ton, while WTI crude oil has decreased to 57 USD/barrel [3] - Non-ferrous metals, including copper and aluminum, have shown strong performance, with copper prices reaching 86,430 RMB/ton and aluminum prices exceeding 21,000 RMB/ton [1][3] - The chemical sector exhibits notable price differentiation, with sulfuric acid prices surging over 700 RMB/ton, while other chemical products like plastics and fertilizers continue to decline [1][2][3] Year-on-Year Price Changes - Year-on-year comparisons reveal that coal prices have decreased by approximately 10%-25%, with the decline rate narrowing, indicating a marginal improvement in supply-demand dynamics [2] - Agricultural products, particularly live pigs, have seen a significant price drop of around 37%, negatively impacting the overall agricultural sector [2] - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown resilience, with electrolytic copper and aluminum prices increasing by 17.4% and 7.3% respectively, reflecting strong international metal market conditions and domestic demand recovery [2] Industry Price Trends - The report indicates that industries such as new energy, new materials, and high-end equipment are experiencing high material price levels and ongoing cost pressures, while traditional sectors like textiles and construction are facing low output prices due to weak downstream demand [4] - Profit margins remain robust in sectors like new energy vehicles and high-end manufacturing, while industries such as chemical fibers and construction materials are under pressure due to high input costs and weak output [4]

Core Insights - The Australian real estate market is experiencing a "slow bull" trend characterized by moderate price increases, influenced by high costs and interest rates [1][7] - Auction activity has surged, with 3,253 auctions held in major capital cities, the highest since last spring, and over 60% of Australians expect prices to rise in the next year [1][7] - However, not all homeowners are benefiting, as some high-end properties in Sydney and Melbourne are selling at a loss, particularly in the off-the-plan segment [1][2][4] Market Dynamics - The apartment market is undergoing structural differentiation, with "investment-oriented apartments" facing the most pressure, while mid-density owner-occupied apartments are recovering steadily [2][6] - The shift in market dynamics is attributed to rising interest rates, which have increased mortgage costs, and a recent ban on foreign buyers, impacting the off-the-plan segment that previously catered to overseas investors [4][5] Financial Pressures - High interest rates and tightened credit conditions are raising financing and settlement costs, leading to forced sales and price corrections among highly leveraged buyers [5][6] - The burden of holding costs, including vacancy taxes for overseas owners, is prompting some investors to accept short-term losses [5][6] Long-term Trends - The Australian housing market is expected to see a gradual recovery, with a focus on self-occupier demand and long-term investment strategies rather than short-term speculation [6][7] - The supply-demand mismatch remains a key issue, with construction costs and financing pressures slowing new project launches, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne [7][8] Demographic Shifts - An emerging buyer group, the downsizers, is gaining attention as older homeowners sell suburban houses for more manageable apartments in prime locations [8][9] - The aging population, with over 17% aged 65 and above, is expected to drive this trend, influencing market dynamics for years to come [9]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing significant structural differentiation, with a notable decline in technology growth sectors while defensive sectors are performing well, indicating a shift in investor sentiment and strategy [4][8]. Market Performance - The index has recorded one of its largest single-day declines, with a clear technical breakdown and substantial short-term adjustment pressure [4]. - Out of 2772 stocks, there is a notable disparity with more stocks rising than falling, reflecting a "pressure on the index but more stocks up than down" characteristic [4]. - The overall trading volume in the two markets has decreased by 5.19%, indicating a cooling of market trading sentiment despite remaining at high levels for the year [6]. Capital Flow - There is a net outflow of institutional funds, with a clear shift from overvalued technology growth sectors to undervalued or defensive sectors such as electric grid equipment and cement materials [8]. - Retail investors are showing mixed signals, with a net inflow of 934.66 million, but some individual stocks are experiencing a declining trend in financing balance [7][8]. Investor Sentiment - The sentiment among retail investors is cautious, with a significant percentage (62.40%) expecting a market rise in the next trading day, while 37.60% anticipate a decline [16]. - The current positioning shows 38.39% of investors are increasing their holdings, while 15.27% are reducing their positions, indicating a cautious approach to market movements [14].