京新药业 002020.SZ 公司研究 | 深度报告 | 创新破局，再攀高峰 | | --- | ——京新药业深度报告 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 公司核心业务或重要产品未来 1-2 年处于快速进展时期，根据公司三季报，我们调整 成品药收入，下调原料药收入、销售费用和研发费用，上调管理费用预测，调整 25- 27 年 EPS 为 0.91/1.07/1.25 元（原预测为 0.95/1.10/1.25 元）。根据可比公司平均 估值，给予公司 2026 年 22 倍市盈率，对应目标价 23.54 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 公司销售不达预期风险、带量采购影响公司业绩的不确定性风险、新药研发上市进度不 及预期风险和测算假设变动对结果影响的相关风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 3,999 | 4,159 | 4,279 | 4,714 | 5,363 | | 同比增长 (%) | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.9% | ...

Summary of Jin Xin Pharmaceutical Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jin Xin Pharmaceutical - **Industry**: Pharmaceutical and Medical Devices Key Financial Performance - **Revenue**: In the first half of 2025, revenue decreased by 6.2% to 2.017 billion yuan, primarily due to a lack of government subsidies compared to the previous year [3] - **Net Profit**: Net profit attributable to shareholders was 388 million yuan, down 3.5% year-on-year, but the non-GAAP net profit increased by nearly 8% to 360 million yuan [3] - **Cost Management**: Management expenses were reduced by approximately 30%, while R&D expenses remained stable at 185 million yuan, showing improved operational efficiency [2][3] Product Development and Pipeline - **Innovative Drugs**: - **Didasyn**: Achieved over 55 million yuan in sales in the first half of 2025, with an annual target exceeding 100 million yuan [2][6] - **Kali Lazin**: Expected to be approved for marketing in the second half of 2026, with peak sales projected between 500 million to 1 billion yuan [4][15] - **11,502 Project**: Completed phase II clinical trials, considering adjustments to development strategy due to high costs for phase III [7][8] - **LPA Small Molecule**: Currently in phase I clinical trials, expected to complete patient enrollment by October [9][10] Market Performance - **Medical Devices**: The medical device segment grew unexpectedly, benefiting from the recovery of domestic medical activities and overseas client expansions, with an expected annual growth of 10%-15% [2][24] - **Finished Drugs**: The hospital market saw a decline of about 10% due to contract renewal cycles, while the outpatient market performed well, maintaining double-digit growth and aiming for a 40%-45% share by year-end [2][13] Strategic Insights - **Cost Control**: The company has successfully managed raw material costs and optimized production processes, resulting in only a slight decrease in gross margin despite cyclical price pressures [11] - **Market Dynamics**: The company is adapting to changes in the procurement landscape, with the 11th batch of centralized procurement expected to rationalize competition and improve pricing strategies [20] - **Stock Buyback**: Over 600 million yuan has been allocated for stock buybacks, with plans to use a third for employee stock ownership and incentive programs [21][22] Future Outlook - **Growth Projections**: The pharmaceutical industry is expected to maintain a stable growth rate of 10%-15% in the medium to long term, providing continuous revenue and cash flow [12] - **Innovation Focus**: The company aims to continue its transition from generic to innovative drugs, with plans to submit two to three IND applications annually [16][25] - **Market Positioning**: The company is positioning itself to leverage its experience in navigating industry policies and aims to deliver strong performance for investors [25]