京新药业 002020.SZ 公司研究 | 深度报告 | 创新破局，再攀高峰 | | --- | ——京新药业深度报告 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 公司核心业务或重要产品未来 1-2 年处于快速进展时期，根据公司三季报，我们调整 成品药收入，下调原料药收入、销售费用和研发费用，上调管理费用预测，调整 25- 27 年 EPS 为 0.91/1.07/1.25 元（原预测为 0.95/1.10/1.25 元）。根据可比公司平均 估值，给予公司 2026 年 22 倍市盈率，对应目标价 23.54 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 公司销售不达预期风险、带量采购影响公司业绩的不确定性风险、新药研发上市进度不 及预期风险和测算假设变动对结果影响的相关风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 3,999 | 4,159 | 4,279 | 4,714 | 5,363 | | 同比增长 (%) | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.9% | ...

Core Insights - Jingxin Pharmaceutical has achieved hospital coverage of over 1,500 for its drug Didasanib in the first half of the year, indicating a strong market presence and ongoing efforts to enhance patient accessibility [2] Company Summary - The company is actively promoting the hospital admission of Didasanib, which reflects its commitment to improving patient access to this medication [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company is committed to enhancing the sales efforts of its product, Didasyn, aiming to contribute more revenue and profit to the organization [1] Group 1 - The company is actively working to promote the sales of Didasyn [1] - The company expresses its intention to increase revenue and profit through these sales efforts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company Jingxin Pharmaceutical (002020) is currently facing market fluctuations, with its stock price at 18.02 yuan, down 0.72% as of November 7, 2025, indicating a short-term trading characteristic in the market [1]. Group 1: Company Developments - The company has submitted an application for the approval of its drug, Calcium Chloride, which is expected to enter the National Medical Insurance Directory upon approval [2]. - The company is actively promoting its two major products, Didasyn and Calcium Chloride, which are projected to reach peak sales of several billion yuan in the next 2-3 years [2]. - The sales efforts for Didasyn are ongoing, with the company focusing on hospital admissions and academic promotion activities to enhance patient accessibility [2]. Group 2: Market Activity - On November 7, the net outflow of main funds was 6.74 million yuan, while the net inflow of speculative funds was 10.57 million yuan, indicating a clear short-term speculative trading pattern in the market [2]. - Retail investors experienced a net outflow of 3.82 million yuan on the same day, reflecting a cautious sentiment among smaller investors [2].

Core Viewpoint - The sales efforts for Didasanib by Jingxin Pharmaceutical are proceeding normally, with a focus on enhancing patient accessibility and providing new treatment solutions through hospital admissions and academic promotion activities [1] Company Summary - Jingxin Pharmaceutical (002020) is actively engaged in the sales of Didasanib, indicating a commitment to improving patient access to this treatment option [1]

Core Viewpoint - The National Healthcare Security Administration has announced the 11th batch of centralized drug procurement, which will take place on October 21, covering 55 varieties and 162 specifications, including key areas such as antiviral and kidney disease treatment drugs [1][2]. Group 1: Drug Procurement Policy - The 11th batch of centralized procurement aims to stabilize clinical practices, ensure quality, prevent collusion, and avoid excessive competition [1]. - The new procurement rules will optimize price control mechanisms to prevent companies from underbidding, which previously led to unsustainable low prices [1][4]. - The focus on high-value consumables and medical devices is expected to benefit companies with strong cost advantages and product quality, particularly in major categories like cardiovascular and anti-infection drugs [4][5]. Group 2: Market Opportunities and Challenges - The centralized procurement policy presents both opportunities and challenges for pharmaceutical companies, prompting some generic drug firms to shift towards a combination of generics and innovation [2][5]. - The "anti-involution" trend in the procurement sector is expected to primarily benefit high-value consumables, which have been adversely affected by previous procurement rounds [2][4]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Perspective - Investors are advised to adopt a long-term perspective, as some innovative drug stocks are currently overvalued following previous market enthusiasm [3][9]. - The ongoing improvement of procurement policies is seen as a catalyst for the healthy development of the pharmaceutical industry, favoring large innovative drug companies with strong R&D capabilities [5][9]. Group 4: Company Performance and Projections - Companies like Kelun Pharmaceutical, Jingxin Pharmaceutical, and Fosun Pharma are highlighted for their strong R&D pipelines and potential for growth, with Kelun having over 30 projects focused on oncology [6][7]. - Fosun Pharma has made significant progress in its innovative transformation, with multiple products showing promising clinical trial results [6][8]. - China National Pharmaceutical Group is expected to have nearly 20 innovative products approved in the next three years, with several projected to exceed sales of 2 billion RMB [8].

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint indicates that the recent cooling of U.S. employment data makes a rate cut in September almost certain, with expectations of a 25bps cut and potential for 1-2 additional cuts throughout the year [1][14][18] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for August showed an increase of only 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000, indicating a weakening labor market [1][18] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.324%, slightly above expectations, highlighting a trend of weakening labor demand [1][18] Fixed Income - In the week of September 1-5, 19 green bonds were issued in the interbank and exchange markets, totaling approximately 8.767 billion yuan, an increase of 1.651 billion yuan from the previous week [2] - The secondary market saw a total trading volume of green bonds amounting to 48.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 4 billion yuan from the previous week [2] Industry Analysis - The domestic aluminum electrolytic capacitor industry is experiencing stable growth, with a focus on supercapacitors expected to drive a second growth curve for Jianghai Co., Ltd. [10] - Jianghai Co., Ltd. is positioned as a leader in the supercapacitor market, with a compound annual growth rate of 23.9% in the domestic market from 2017 to 2023 [10] - The report highlights the potential for significant growth in the supercapacitor business, particularly in AI computing applications, as the company collaborates with multiple AI clients [10] Company Recommendations - Yapu Co., Ltd. is expected to see revenue growth from 9.123 billion yuan in 2025 to 10.961 billion yuan in 2027, with a corresponding net profit increase from 575 million yuan to 756 million yuan [9] - Jianghai Co., Ltd. is projected to achieve revenues of 4.565 billion yuan in 2025, growing to 5.770 billion yuan by 2027, with net profits expected to rise from 791 million yuan to 1.025 billion yuan [13] - China Pacific Insurance is maintaining a positive outlook with projected net profits of 51.6 billion yuan in 2025, increasing to 55.3 billion yuan by 2027 [12]

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities report indicates that Jingxin Pharmaceutical focuses on the fields of mental neurology and cardiovascular health, with a positive outlook on its overall performance due to the clearance of finished drug procurement, stabilization of raw materials, and recovery in medical device growth [1] Group 1: Business Focus - Jingxin Pharmaceutical is concentrating on the mental neurology and cardiovascular sectors, which are expected to drive future growth [1] - The company has successfully launched the insomnia drug Dazisni, which is anticipated to gain market traction [1] Group 2: Product Development - The small molecule Lp(a) inhibitor for lowering lipids is progressing well in its research and development, showing potential for international market expansion [1] - The company is expected to see a continuous rollout of innovative drugs, contributing to revenue growth and valuation enhancement [1] Group 3: Financial Outlook - The overall performance of the company is projected to maintain a double-digit growth rate [1] - Given the stable development of existing businesses and the promising progress in innovative drug research, the company is rated with a "buy" recommendation [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company focuses on the fields of mental health and cardiovascular diseases, with a promising development of innovative drugs. The launch of the insomnia drug, Dazisni, is expected to significantly contribute to revenue growth. The company is also advancing in the development of a small molecule Lp(a) inhibitor, which has potential for international markets [7][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has diversified its business across raw materials, finished drugs, and medical devices, marking a new phase in innovative drug development. It has become a leading enterprise in the mental health and cardiovascular sectors, with a production capacity exceeding 10 billion tablets [12][14]. 2. Financial Performance - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 3,999 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.79%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 618.90 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 6.55% compared to the previous year. Revenue is forecasted to grow to 5,770 million yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 12.59% [1][18]. 3. Product Pipeline - The company has a rich pipeline of over ten innovative drug projects, including the small molecule Lp(a) inhibitor JX2201, which is currently in Phase I clinical trials. The drug has significant potential due to the large patient population with elevated Lp(a) levels and the absence of approved treatments targeting this condition [7][61]. 4. Market Dynamics - The insomnia drug market in China is projected to grow significantly, with the number of insomnia patients expected to reach 300 million by 2025. The company’s insomnia drug, Dazisni, is anticipated to capture a substantial market share following its launch and subsequent inclusion in the medical insurance list [45][54]. 5. Revenue Contributions - The finished drug segment is expected to contribute approximately 61% of total revenue in 2024, with a projected revenue of 25.22 billion yuan. The company is also focusing on expanding its overseas market presence and enhancing its product offerings through innovative drug development [29][35].

Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.017 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.20%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 388 million yuan, down 3.54%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 360 million yuan, an increase of 7.78%. The gross margin was 49.57%, down 2.00 percentage points, while the net margin was 19.45%, up 0.57 percentage points [1] - In Q2, the company reported revenue of 1.060 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.64% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.88%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 225 million yuan, down 2.74% year-on-year but up 38.04% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 214 million yuan, an increase of 20.36% year-on-year and 45.58% quarter-on-quarter, indicating significant operational improvement and steady enhancement of profitability [1] Business Segment Analysis - Finished drug revenue was 1.175 billion yuan, down 9.68%, with the pressure from price reductions largely absorbed. The commercialization of the new product, Dazatinib, made progress, with over 400 key medical institutions gaining access and achieving sales of 55 million yuan. The finished drug export business grew over 30% due to competitive pricing and stable quality [2] - Raw material drug revenue was 453 million yuan, down 9.59%, primarily affected by cyclical fluctuations in the raw material drug industry. The company continues to optimize its entire industry chain and processes to reduce costs and improve efficiency while accelerating international expansion for long-term stable development [2] - Medical device revenue was 349 million yuan, an increase of 12.01%, as the company continued to enhance its domestic market share and deepen cooperation with international strategic clients [2] Innovation Pipeline - The company is accelerating the development of its innovative pipeline, focusing on key therapeutic areas. In the psychiatric and neurological field, the self-developed first-class new drug JX11502 has completed Phase II clinical trials, and the production of the capsule form of Calirizine has been officially reported. In the cardiovascular field, the self-developed LP(a) lowering new drug is progressing through Phase I clinical trials. In the digestive field, the improved traditional Chinese medicine for ulcerative colitis has completed Phase II clinical trials, supporting the design and conduct of subsequent Phase III trials [2] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 4.627 billion yuan, 5.197 billion yuan, and 5.800 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.3%, 12.3%, and 11.6%, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 800 million yuan, 934 million yuan, and 1.059 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.4%, 16.7%, and 13.4% [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on the rapid growth of Dazatinib and a rich reserve of subsequent innovative pipelines [3]