集采在降低药品价格的同时，也给药企带来了不同的机遇和挑战。部分仿制药企开始积极转型，开启仿创结合的新征途。结合多家券商和分析人士观点， 本轮医药"反内卷"的主要受益板块集中在医疗器械等高值耗材这种过去因集采受损较大的领域。长期来看，利好创新能力强、行业地位高的创新药企。 另一方面，经历前期热炒，部分创新药个股已处于估值较高位，投资者需从长期投资角度耐心关注，规避短期追高买入的风险。 利好两大领域 本文首发于9月27日第9期杂志 9月20日，国家医保局正式发布第十一批国家组织药品集中采购文件，明确第十一批集采将于10月21日在上海开标。根据文件中披露的采购品种范围，本 轮集采覆盖55个品种、162个品规，涉及抗流感药物、肾病治疗创新药等重点领域，剂型涵盖口服常释剂型、吸入剂、外用贴剂等。 此前7月15日，国家组织药品联合采购办公室启动第11批药品集采工作，相应的集采优化措施也同步提出。彼时资本市场对集采政策调整反应迅速，多家 仿制药企股价上涨。 本次集采方案制定和修改过程中，充分遵循了"稳临床、保质量、防围标、反内卷"的原则。其中一大亮点在于优化价差控制"锚点"：为保证公平，本次集 采继续对中选价差作一定控制。 ...

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint indicates that the recent cooling of U.S. employment data makes a rate cut in September almost certain, with expectations of a 25bps cut and potential for 1-2 additional cuts throughout the year [1][14][18] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for August showed an increase of only 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000, indicating a weakening labor market [1][18] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.324%, slightly above expectations, highlighting a trend of weakening labor demand [1][18] Fixed Income - In the week of September 1-5, 19 green bonds were issued in the interbank and exchange markets, totaling approximately 8.767 billion yuan, an increase of 1.651 billion yuan from the previous week [2] - The secondary market saw a total trading volume of green bonds amounting to 48.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 4 billion yuan from the previous week [2] Industry Analysis - The domestic aluminum electrolytic capacitor industry is experiencing stable growth, with a focus on supercapacitors expected to drive a second growth curve for Jianghai Co., Ltd. [10] - Jianghai Co., Ltd. is positioned as a leader in the supercapacitor market, with a compound annual growth rate of 23.9% in the domestic market from 2017 to 2023 [10] - The report highlights the potential for significant growth in the supercapacitor business, particularly in AI computing applications, as the company collaborates with multiple AI clients [10] Company Recommendations - Yapu Co., Ltd. is expected to see revenue growth from 9.123 billion yuan in 2025 to 10.961 billion yuan in 2027, with a corresponding net profit increase from 575 million yuan to 756 million yuan [9] - Jianghai Co., Ltd. is projected to achieve revenues of 4.565 billion yuan in 2025, growing to 5.770 billion yuan by 2027, with net profits expected to rise from 791 million yuan to 1.025 billion yuan [13] - China Pacific Insurance is maintaining a positive outlook with projected net profits of 51.6 billion yuan in 2025, increasing to 55.3 billion yuan by 2027 [12]

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities report indicates that Jingxin Pharmaceutical focuses on the fields of mental neurology and cardiovascular health, with a positive outlook on its overall performance due to the clearance of finished drug procurement, stabilization of raw materials, and recovery in medical device growth [1] Group 1: Business Focus - Jingxin Pharmaceutical is concentrating on the mental neurology and cardiovascular sectors, which are expected to drive future growth [1] - The company has successfully launched the insomnia drug Dazisni, which is anticipated to gain market traction [1] Group 2: Product Development - The small molecule Lp(a) inhibitor for lowering lipids is progressing well in its research and development, showing potential for international market expansion [1] - The company is expected to see a continuous rollout of innovative drugs, contributing to revenue growth and valuation enhancement [1] Group 3: Financial Outlook - The overall performance of the company is projected to maintain a double-digit growth rate [1] - Given the stable development of existing businesses and the promising progress in innovative drug research, the company is rated with a "buy" recommendation [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company focuses on the fields of mental health and cardiovascular diseases, with a promising development of innovative drugs. The launch of the insomnia drug, Dazisni, is expected to significantly contribute to revenue growth. The company is also advancing in the development of a small molecule Lp(a) inhibitor, which has potential for international markets [7][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has diversified its business across raw materials, finished drugs, and medical devices, marking a new phase in innovative drug development. It has become a leading enterprise in the mental health and cardiovascular sectors, with a production capacity exceeding 10 billion tablets [12][14]. 2. Financial Performance - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 3,999 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.79%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 618.90 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 6.55% compared to the previous year. Revenue is forecasted to grow to 5,770 million yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 12.59% [1][18]. 3. Product Pipeline - The company has a rich pipeline of over ten innovative drug projects, including the small molecule Lp(a) inhibitor JX2201, which is currently in Phase I clinical trials. The drug has significant potential due to the large patient population with elevated Lp(a) levels and the absence of approved treatments targeting this condition [7][61]. 4. Market Dynamics - The insomnia drug market in China is projected to grow significantly, with the number of insomnia patients expected to reach 300 million by 2025. The company’s insomnia drug, Dazisni, is anticipated to capture a substantial market share following its launch and subsequent inclusion in the medical insurance list [45][54]. 5. Revenue Contributions - The finished drug segment is expected to contribute approximately 61% of total revenue in 2024, with a projected revenue of 25.22 billion yuan. The company is also focusing on expanding its overseas market presence and enhancing its product offerings through innovative drug development [29][35].

Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.017 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.20%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 388 million yuan, down 3.54%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 360 million yuan, an increase of 7.78%. The gross margin was 49.57%, down 2.00 percentage points, while the net margin was 19.45%, up 0.57 percentage points [1] - In Q2, the company reported revenue of 1.060 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.64% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.88%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 225 million yuan, down 2.74% year-on-year but up 38.04% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 214 million yuan, an increase of 20.36% year-on-year and 45.58% quarter-on-quarter, indicating significant operational improvement and steady enhancement of profitability [1] Business Segment Analysis - Finished drug revenue was 1.175 billion yuan, down 9.68%, with the pressure from price reductions largely absorbed. The commercialization of the new product, Dazatinib, made progress, with over 400 key medical institutions gaining access and achieving sales of 55 million yuan. The finished drug export business grew over 30% due to competitive pricing and stable quality [2] - Raw material drug revenue was 453 million yuan, down 9.59%, primarily affected by cyclical fluctuations in the raw material drug industry. The company continues to optimize its entire industry chain and processes to reduce costs and improve efficiency while accelerating international expansion for long-term stable development [2] - Medical device revenue was 349 million yuan, an increase of 12.01%, as the company continued to enhance its domestic market share and deepen cooperation with international strategic clients [2] Innovation Pipeline - The company is accelerating the development of its innovative pipeline, focusing on key therapeutic areas. In the psychiatric and neurological field, the self-developed first-class new drug JX11502 has completed Phase II clinical trials, and the production of the capsule form of Calirizine has been officially reported. In the cardiovascular field, the self-developed LP(a) lowering new drug is progressing through Phase I clinical trials. In the digestive field, the improved traditional Chinese medicine for ulcerative colitis has completed Phase II clinical trials, supporting the design and conduct of subsequent Phase III trials [2] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 4.627 billion yuan, 5.197 billion yuan, and 5.800 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.3%, 12.3%, and 11.6%, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 800 million yuan, 934 million yuan, and 1.059 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.4%, 16.7%, and 13.4% [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on the rapid growth of Dazatinib and a rich reserve of subsequent innovative pipelines [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company's profitability is improving, with significant growth expected from the product Didasyn [10]. - The revenue forecast for 2025 has been adjusted to 4.33 billion yuan, with EPS estimates revised to 0.95 yuan for 2025, 1.10 yuan for 2026, and 1.25 yuan for 2027 [3][5]. - The target price is set at 25.30 yuan based on a 23x PE ratio for 2026 [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 3.999 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.8%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach 4.159 billion yuan, growing at 4.0% [5][12]. - Operating profit is forecasted to be 714 million yuan in 2023, with a decline of 5.6%, but is expected to rise to 844 million yuan in 2024, reflecting an 18.1% increase [5][12]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is estimated at 619 million yuan for 2023, with a decrease of 6.5%, and is projected to grow to 712 million yuan in 2024, a 15.0% increase [5][12]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 50.6% in 2023 to 51.5% in 2025, while the net margin is projected to increase from 15.5% to 18.9% over the same period [5][12]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 11.6% in 2023 to 12.8% in 2025 [5][12].

Core Viewpoint - The company faces short-term pressure on performance but is improving profitability through effective cost control and growth in specific product lines [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.017 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 388 million yuan, down 3.5% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in performance is primarily due to the impact of centralized procurement on finished drugs, which saw a year-on-year decrease of 9.7%, but growth in the sales of Didasun and export of formulations (up 30.1% year-on-year) helped mitigate this impact [1]. - The company has improved its net profit margin, which increased by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, and expects further enhancement in profitability as the impact of centralized procurement diminishes [1]. Group 2: Product Development and Pipeline - The company is advancing its pipeline in three key areas: 1. In the psychiatric field, the NDA for the schizophrenia drug, Calirazine Hydrochloride Capsules, has been submitted, and the Phase II clinical trial for the innovative drug JX11502 has been completed [2]. 2. In the cardiovascular field, the NDA for the high cholesterol drug, Calriven Hydrochloride Tablets, has been submitted, while the new drug JX2201 is undergoing Phase I clinical trials [2]. 3. In digestive diseases, the Phase II clinical trial for the modified traditional Chinese medicine, Recovery New Enteric Capsules, has been completed and is set to advance to Phase III [2]. - The company has established a robust pipeline that is expected to contribute to future revenue growth [2]. Group 3: Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendation - Based on the mid-2025 report, the company has adjusted its revenue and expense assumptions for finished and raw materials, while increasing the revenue assumption for medical devices [3]. - The adjusted EPS for 2025-2027 is projected to be 0.95, 1.10, and 1.25 yuan, respectively, up from previous estimates [3]. - The target price is set at 25.30 yuan based on a 23x PE ratio for comparable companies in 2026, maintaining a "buy" rating [3].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoints - The IPO market on the Beijing Stock Exchange is accelerating, with increased participation in new stock offerings, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets are experiencing a contraction in new stock issuance [2] - The performance of various industries is diverging significantly, with improvements in profitability for the float glass sector, while coal and livestock industries are expected to maintain negative profit growth [3] - Market sentiment is optimistic, with a notable increase in the number of rising stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, indicating a sustained increase in risk appetite among investors [4] Company Research - **Changsha Bank**: The bank reported a revenue of 13.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, and a net profit of 4.3 billion yuan, up 5.1% year-on-year. The annualized return on equity was 12.6%, slightly down by 0.6 percentage points [8] - **Suzhou Bank**: The bank achieved a revenue of 6.5 billion yuan, a 1.8% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.13 billion yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year. The annualized return on equity was 12.34%, down by 1 percentage point [9] - **China Energy Construction**: The company reported a revenue of 292.76 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a 2.7% increase year-on-year, but a net profit decline of 13.8% to 5.43 billion yuan [22] - **China Chemical**: The company achieved a revenue of 90.72 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, but a net profit increase of 9.3% to 3.1 billion yuan [23] Industry Research - **Magnesium Oxide**: The application potential of magnesium oxide in rare earth metallurgy is promising, with various grades affecting production efficiency and cost [7] - **Phosphate Fertilizers**: The company reported stable revenue growth in the phosphate fertilizer sector, driven by an improved product mix and favorable industry conditions [11] - **Carbon Fiber**: The company anticipates an increase in net profit due to rising sales volumes in the carbon fiber sector, with projections for 2025-2027 showing significant growth [12] - **Specialty Gases**: Despite a decline in profitability due to increased competition, the demand for specialty gases remains strong, supported by new capacity releases [13]

Group 1: Key Insights on Luoyang Molybdenum Industry - Luoyang Molybdenum achieved a net profit of 8.671 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 60.07% [5] - The company's performance exceeded expectations due to production surpassing planned targets across various segments [5] - Prices for copper, cobalt, molybdenum iron, ammonium paratungstate, and monoammonium phosphate all increased during H1 2025 [5] Group 2: Key Insights on Yuntou Holdings - Yuntou Holdings reported revenue of 11.4 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year growth of 3.59% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 511 million yuan, up 12.60% year-on-year [5] - In Q2 2025, the company experienced a revenue decline of 5.99% year-on-year, but net profit still grew by 6.94% [5] Group 3: Key Insights on Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass - Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass reported H1 2025 revenue of 2.37 billion yuan, down 8.2% year-on-year [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 21.9% to 370 million yuan [6] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.28 yuan per share, yielding a dividend rate of 1.2% [6] Group 4: Key Insights on TBEA Co., Ltd. - TBEA Co., Ltd. achieved total revenue of 48.401 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.12% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.184 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.00% increase year-on-year [7] - In Q2 2025, the company reported a slight revenue decrease of 1.03% compared to the previous quarter [7] Group 5: Key Insights on Rongtai Co., Ltd. - Rongtai Co., Ltd. reported total revenue of 1.34 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.6% [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 98 million yuan, up 13.3% year-on-year [8] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue growth of 6.2% year-on-year [8] Group 6: Key Insights on Shoulv Hotel - Shoulv Hotel reported H1 2025 revenue of 3.661 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.93% year-on-year [9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 11.08% to 397 million yuan [9] - In Q2 2025, the company experienced a slight revenue growth of 0.42% year-on-year [9] Group 7: Key Insights on Jingxin Pharmaceutical - Jingxin Pharmaceutical reported H1 2025 revenue of 2.017 billion yuan, down 6.20% year-on-year [10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 388 million yuan, a decrease of 3.54% [10] - The company’s operating cash flow decreased by 17.48% year-on-year [10]

事件：公司发布2025 年中报，2025H1 公司实现营收20.17 亿元（yoy-6.20%），归母净利润3.88 亿元 （yoy-3.54%），扣非归母净利润达3.60 亿元（yoy+7.78%）；其中Q2 实现营收10.60 亿元（yoy- 2.64%），归母净利润2.25 亿元（yoy-2.74%），扣非归母净利润2.14 亿元(yoy+20.36%）。 点评： 1） 存量业务风险出清，核心盈利能力增强。2025H1 扣非归母净利润的稳健增长凸显公司核心业务盈 利能力增强，主要得益于有效的成本费用管控，销售费用和管理费用分别同比下降18.86%和29.18%。 分季度看，随着集采续约工作落地，成品药业务恢复正常轨道，叠加创新药放量，公司业绩逐季改善， 2025Q2 实现营收10.60 亿元（QoQ+10.92%），归母净利润2.25 亿元（QoQ +37.54%），扣非归母净利 润2.14 亿元(QoQ+45.51%）。分业务板块看，成品药业务实现收入11.75 亿元（yoy-9.68%），主要受院 内市场价格治理及部分集采产品续约降价影响。凭借原料药-制剂一体化的成本优势和国际认证的质量 体系，制剂 ...