Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report suggests that the domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract is expected to maintain a strong - oscillating trend. With the weakening of the geopolitical trading logic due to the end of the conflict between Iran and Israel, and the approaching of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere, the oil market has entered a stage of long - short divergence. After a significant decline in the previous period, the contract showed a strong - oscillating trend on the night of Wednesday, with the price rising by 2.11% to 509.0 yuan/barrel, and is likely to continue this trend on Thursday [1][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog a. Time - cycle Viewpoints - Short - term (within one week): The short - term view of crude oil 2508 is oscillating [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The medium - term view of crude oil 2508 is oscillating [1]. - Intraday: The intraday view of crude oil 2508 is oscillating with a strong bias, and the reference view is a strong operation [1][5]. b. Price and Market Analysis - After the end of the conflict between Iran and Israel, the market adjusted expectations, believing that the geopolitical premium of oil prices would further decline. The oil market entered a long - short divergence stage after a previous sharp decline [5]. - With the arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere, the demand factor for crude oil is exerting its influence. On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract maintained a strong - oscillating trend, with the price rising by 2.11% to 509.0 yuan/barrel [5]. - It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract will maintain a strong - oscillating trend on Thursday [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil market is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with the SC2508 contract showing an upward trend, and will be in a volatile state in the medium - term. The intraday view is that it will be volatile and biased towards strength [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Market Performance - The domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract closed up 2.77% to 574.5 yuan/barrel on Thursday night [5]. Market Outlook - The domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and biased - towards - strength trend on Friday [5]. Core Driving Logic - The conflict between Iran and Israel has continued to escalate this week, with missile attacks on energy facilities, increasing the premium of energy - chemical commodities. The presence of the US three - aircraft - carrier fleet and military support from other countries in the Middle East has increased the risk of conflict expansion [5]. - Merchant ships and oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz have faced increasing electronic interference, with an oil tanker collision near the strait, potentially disrupting crude oil transportation and expanding the premium space due to geopolitical risks [5].

晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-06-13 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘风险主导，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近日地缘因子成为驱动国内外原油期货价格走强的重要因素。为了报复乌克兰无人机偷 袭俄军战略轰炸机，俄罗斯对乌克兰全境发动进攻，俄乌冲突再度升级，同时美国透露出从中东地 区撤离人员的消息，市场 ...