Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The oil market shows a divergence between bulls and bears, and crude oil is expected to operate in a relatively strong manner. The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is predicted to maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend on Tuesday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - based Viewpoints - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2509 is volatile [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2509 is volatile, and the medium - term view of crude oil (SC) is also volatile [1][5]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2509 is volatile and relatively strong, and the intraday view of crude oil (SC) is also volatile and relatively strong [1][5]. 3.2 Driving Logic - **Positive Factors**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East still exist, increasing the premium of crude oil. After a significant decline in the early stage, the confidence of oil market bulls has increased again, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. The arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere has boosted crude oil demand [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Eight major oil - producing countries among OPEC and non - OPEC oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. However, as the negative impact of the production increase is gradually digested and the original production increase plan of the oil - producing countries is gradually realized, the space for further production expansion in the future is limited [5]. 3.3 Price Performance - On Monday night, domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices maintained a volatile and slightly weak trend. The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 slightly closed down 0.86% to 507.5 yuan per barrel [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report suggests that the domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract is expected to maintain a strong - oscillating trend. With the weakening of the geopolitical trading logic due to the end of the conflict between Iran and Israel, and the approaching of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere, the oil market has entered a stage of long - short divergence. After a significant decline in the previous period, the contract showed a strong - oscillating trend on the night of Wednesday, with the price rising by 2.11% to 509.0 yuan/barrel, and is likely to continue this trend on Thursday [1][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog a. Time - cycle Viewpoints - Short - term (within one week): The short - term view of crude oil 2508 is oscillating [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The medium - term view of crude oil 2508 is oscillating [1]. - Intraday: The intraday view of crude oil 2508 is oscillating with a strong bias, and the reference view is a strong operation [1][5]. b. Price and Market Analysis - After the end of the conflict between Iran and Israel, the market adjusted expectations, believing that the geopolitical premium of oil prices would further decline. The oil market entered a long - short divergence stage after a previous sharp decline [5]. - With the arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere, the demand factor for crude oil is exerting its influence. On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract maintained a strong - oscillating trend, with the price rising by 2.11% to 509.0 yuan/barrel [5]. - It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract will maintain a strong - oscillating trend on Thursday [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market may fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to pressure on liquidity and demand [1]. - The evolution of the Israel - Iran situation is crucial, determining the short - term direction and pricing logic of major asset classes. There is uncertainty in the short - term, and the subsequent counter - attack strength of Iran needs to be observed [1]. - Risk appetite is under short - term pressure, but the impact is limited with a stable RMB. The implied volatility of energy and the stability of offshore US dollar liquidity should be continuously tracked [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance Review - The overall commodity market rose 2.29% last week. The energy and chemical sector had a relatively large increase of 4.11%, while the agricultural products and black sectors rose 2.10% and 0.91% respectively. The precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors fell 1.76% and 0.09% respectively [1][5]. - Among specific varieties, crude oil, methanol, and short - fiber led the gains with increases of 8.82%, 5.86%, and 5.31% respectively. Gold, pulp, and silver were the top decliners with drops of 1.99%, 1.50%, and 1.44% respectively [1][5]. - The funds in the market decreased, mainly affected by the outflow of funds from precious metals [1][5]. 3.2 Market Outlook by Sector Precious Metals - International gold prices consolidated at high levels due to dovish signals from Fed officials, increased market expectations of interest rate cuts this year, a decline in the US dollar index, and continued gold purchases by global central banks. Silver showed a relatively differentiated performance, fluctuating within a range affected by manufacturing data [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - The non - ferrous metals sector fluctuated narrowly. Copper prices consolidated at high levels, supported by tight overseas inventories and continued global new energy investment, but the upward momentum slowed due to the Fed's interest rate policy and weak high - level consumption. Aluminum prices found support near the electrolytic aluminum cost line, and the market focused on power costs and inventory destocking [2]. Black Metals - Steel futures continued to rebound, driven by increased expectations of "stable growth" policies and the fermentation of Tangshan production restriction news. Iron ore prices stabilized following steel as port inventories decreased due to the Brazilian rainy season. The fifth round of coke price increases was implemented, and coking coal was more willing to follow the price increase, maintaining the resilience of the black metal industry chain, but the recovery of terminal demand still requires policy support [2]. Energy - Crude oil futures rose significantly due to the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories. OPEC+ implemented production cuts well, and the market had positive expectations for the summer oil - using peak season, keeping oil prices strong in the short - term and driving the联动上涨 of fuel oil, asphalt and other varieties [3]. Chemicals - Driven by rising energy prices, the chemical sector generally strengthened. Some varieties such as methanol, PTA, and fuel oil made up for lost ground, and the inventory destocking speed accelerated due to some device overhauls and cost increases. Weak varieties such as PVC and ethylene glycol got short - term support, but the substantial recovery of the downstream has not been clear, and the market is more trading - driven [3]. Agricultural Products - The oil and oilseed sector fluctuated strongly. Although US soybean export data was weak, domestic rapeseed varieties rose supported by domestic production cuts and policy expectations, with rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil leading the gains. Corn prices were under pressure due to import substitution and declining deep - processing profitability. Pig prices fluctuated and corrected due to the off - season consumption and the pressure of slaughter, and industry confidence was still insufficient [3]. 3.3 Commodity - Related Fund Situation - Most gold ETFs had negative weekly returns, with the overall gold ETF having a - 1.86% to - 1.95% decline, and the total scale decreased by 1.06%. The trading volume of gold ETFs decreased significantly [42]. - The energy - chemical futures ETF had a positive weekly return of 5.34%, and its scale increased by 2.07%, but the trading volume decreased by 78.24% [42]. - The soybean meal futures ETF had a weekly return of 0.73%, and its scale increased slightly by 0.17%, with a small decrease in trading volume [42]. - The non - ferrous metal futures ETF had a weekly return of - 0.20%, and its scale increased by 1.19%, with a 23.67% decrease in trading volume [42]. - The silver futures (LOF) had a weekly return of - 0.99%, and its trading volume increased by 64.13% while the scale remained unchanged [42].