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宝城期货橡胶早报-20250924
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 01:12
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with an intraday view of being strongly volatile and a medium - term view of being volatile. For Shanghai rubber, the 2601 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend on Wednesday; for synthetic rubber, the 2511 contract is expected to maintain a strongly volatile trend on Wednesday [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: strongly volatile; Overall view: strongly run [1]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. The dot - plot shows two more rate cuts in Q4 2025 and only one in 2026, slower than the market's pricing of three cuts. After the rubber price center shifted down to digest market sentiment, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures stabilized on Tuesday night, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.22% to 15,605 yuan/ton. There is resistance to further rebound [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: strongly volatile; Overall view: strongly run [1]. - **Core Logic**: Similar to Shanghai rubber, after the Fed's rate cut and price adjustment, the 2511 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures maintained a volatile rebound on Tuesday night, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.61% to 11,550 yuan/ton [7].
宝城期货橡胶早报-20250923
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 01:08
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract and the synthetic rubber futures 2511 contract are expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends showing oscillations, and intraday trends being weakly oscillating [1][5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of Futures Contracts - For the Shanghai rubber (RU) 2601 contract, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are oscillating, with the intraday being weakly oscillating, and the reference view is a weak operation; for the synthetic rubber (BR) 2511 contract, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are oscillating, with the intraday being weakly oscillating, and the reference view is also a weak operation [1] 2. Price Calculation and Fluctuation Standards - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price of the current day, used to calculate the price change [2] - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is weakly oscillating, an increase of 0 - 1% is strongly oscillating, and an increase greater than 1% is a rise [3] - The concepts of strongly/weakly oscillating only apply to intraday views, not to short - term and medium - term views [4] 3. Price and Driving Logic of Specific Futures Contracts Shanghai Rubber (RU) - The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract closed slightly up 0.26% at 15,600 yuan/ton in the night trading on Monday. Due to the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut as expected and the dot - plot showing a slower - than - expected future interest rate cut schedule, along with the supply increase in the rubber market, the contract is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Tuesday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - The synthetic rubber futures 2511 contract closed slightly up 0.04% at 11,500 yuan/ton in the night trading on Monday. Due to the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut as expected and the dot - plot showing a slower - than - expected future interest rate cut schedule, the contract is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Tuesday [6]
宝城期货橡胶早报-20250918
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 01:42
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and weak [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and weak. The reference view is to run weakly [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: On Wednesday night (Beijing time), the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. However, the dot - plot shows two more rate cuts in Q4 2025 and only one in 2026, slower than the market's current pricing of three cuts. With the fulfillment of previous bullish expectations and the rubber market in a state of increasing supply, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed an oscillatory and weak trend on Wednesday night, with the futures price closing down 1.57% to 15,650 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Thursday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and weak. The reference view is to run weakly [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: On Wednesday night (Beijing time), the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. After the fulfillment of previous bullish expectations, the 2511 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and weak trend on Wednesday night, with the futures price closing down 1.64% to 11,430 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Thursday [7].
宝城期货橡胶早报-20250917
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 02:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract and synthetic rubber futures 2511 contract are expected to run strongly, with an intraday view of being strongly volatile and a medium - term view of being volatile [1][5][7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs For Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On Tuesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a weakly volatile trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.28% to 15,955 yuan/ton [5]. - **Core Logic**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in the September meeting is high, and the Sino - US economic and trade talks have achieved positive results, improving the macro - sentiment. The Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and the supply recovery expectation in the rubber market is increasing [5]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that on Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract may maintain a strongly volatile trend [5]. For Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On Tuesday, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2511 contract maintained a stable and volatile trend, with the futures price slightly up 0.09% to 11,680 yuan/ton [7]. - **Core Logic**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in the September meeting is high, and the Sino - US economic and trade talks have achieved positive results, improving the macro - sentiment. Although the domestic auto market production and sales in August were better than expected, the positive factors were overdrawn [7]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that on Wednesday, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2511 contract may maintain a strongly volatile trend [7].
宝城期货橡胶早报-20250916
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 02:07
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly. Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract and synthetic rubber futures 2511 contract are likely to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend on Tuesday [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Shanghai Rubber (RU)** - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: volatile and slightly stronger; Overall view: run strongly [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in the September meeting is high, and the Sino - US economic and trade talks have achieved positive results, improving the macro - sentiment. Meanwhile, the supply recovery expectation in the rubber market is increasing as the Southeast Asian production areas are in the peak tapping season and the impact of various factors on supply has been digested. On Monday, the 2601 contract of Shanghai rubber futures closed up 0.79% to 15,995 yuan/ton [5]. **Synthetic Rubber (BR)** - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: volatile and slightly stronger; Overall view: run strongly [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in the September meeting is high, and the Sino - US economic and trade talks have achieved positive results, improving the macro - sentiment. Although the domestic auto market production and sales in August were better than expected, the positive factors were overdrawn. On Monday, the 2511 contract of synthetic rubber futures closed up 0.86% to 11,690 yuan/ton [7].
宝城期货橡胶早报-20250915
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 08:18
Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and weak [1][5][7] Summary by Variety Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On Friday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract closed slightly lower by 0.28% to 15,765 yuan/ton [5] - **Core Logic**: This week, the Fed has its September interest - rate meeting, with a high probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut. The Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season. The supply recovery expectation in the rubber market has increased as the positive impact of the unrest in Indonesia fades and the impact of weather on Hainan's rubber - producing area is digested. Although the domestic auto market's production and sales in August were better than expected, the positive factors have been over - exploited [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On Friday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2511 contract closed slightly higher by 0.04% to 11,550 yuan/ton [7] - **Core Logic**: This week, the Fed has its September interest - rate meeting, with a high probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut. Although the domestic auto market's production and sales in August were better than expected, the positive factors have been over - exploited [7]