Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for Qingmu Technology [5][6]. Core Views - Qingmu Technology is positioned as a data and technology-driven one-stop retail service expert, focusing on e-commerce operations, brand incubation, and technical solutions across various consumer sectors [5][6]. - The company has established a stable and concentrated shareholding structure, with the founders holding approximately 39% of the shares, ensuring management stability [19][21]. - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with expected revenues of 15.1 billion, 19.0 billion, and 23.4 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 30.5%, 26.5%, and 23.0% [4][6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is estimated at 11.53 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19.2%, and a projected net profit of 0.91 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 73.84% [4][24]. - The gross profit margin is expected to stabilize above 50%, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 8.5% in 2025, increasing to 13.0% by 2027 [4][6]. - The company anticipates a net profit of 1.31 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 45.2% [6][24]. Business Model and Competitive Advantage - Qingmu Technology operates in three main business segments: e-commerce operations, brand incubation, and technical solutions, leveraging data and technology to enhance operational efficiency [5][6]. - The company has a strong competitive edge through its ability to integrate consumer data across multiple platforms, which allows it to provide tailored solutions for brand growth [8][35]. - The brand incubation segment is expected to become the largest revenue contributor, with projected revenues of 3.07 billion yuan in 2024 [32][35]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company has successfully expanded into high-growth sectors such as trendy toys and health products, with significant partnerships with brands like Skechers and Jellycat [5][35]. - Qingmu Technology's strategic focus on digital marketing and technology solutions positions it well to capture market share in the evolving e-commerce landscape [5][6]. - The report highlights the potential for continued growth in the e-commerce operations segment, driven by the increasing demand for integrated digital solutions [7][35].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 670 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 52 million yuan, a decrease of 23.0% year-on-year [1] Revenue Breakdown - In the first half of 2025, the revenue from e-commerce operations, brand incubation and management, and distribution agency was 300 million, 230 million, and 90 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.2%, 86.5%, and 11.9% [2] - The gross profit margins for these segments were 47.0%, 79.6%, and 37.4% respectively, with changes in gross margin of -1.2 percentage points, +0.6 percentage points, and +12.5 percentage points year-on-year [2] Channel Performance - Revenue from Tmall and Douyin in the first half of 2025 was 190 million and 95 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 8.3% and 144.6% [3] - During the 618 shopping festival in 2025, the company's subsidiary "Wangtu Bai" achieved a total GMV growth of 80% year-on-year, with Douyin mall GMV doubling year-on-year [3] Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 57.0%, an increase of 5.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.7%, a decrease of 4.6 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The operating expense ratio for the first half of 2025 was 47.7%, up 7.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased sales expenses [4] Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is diversifying its e-commerce services and enhancing collaborations with quality brands, with a projected net profit of 110 million yuan for 2025, down from a previous estimate of 120 million yuan [5] - The net profit for 2025-2027 is expected to grow by 16%, 43%, and 47% respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 60, 42, and 28 times [5]