商业地产抵押贷款支持证券(CMBS)

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大摩最新测算:到2028年,AI资本支出将推动科技巨头增加1万亿美元债务
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-21 06:52
Group 1 - Morgan Stanley predicts a financing gap of $1.5 trillion for global data center investments by 2028, requiring approximately $2.9 trillion in total investment [1][2][3] - The capital expenditure driven by AI is expected to significantly impact macroeconomic conditions, contributing up to 40 basis points to U.S. GDP growth between 2025 and 2026 [1] - The annual investment demand for data centers is projected to exceed $900 billion by 2028, highlighting the scale of AI-related investments [2] Group 2 - Spending by hyperscale cloud service providers has surged from approximately $125 billion two years ago to an estimated $200 billion in 2024, with expectations to surpass $300 billion in 2025 [3] - The credit market is anticipated to play a crucial role in filling the financing gap, with both public and private markets becoming increasingly important [4] - The current market environment, characterized by ample credit dry powder and attractive real yields, is favorable for long-term investors such as insurance companies and sovereign wealth funds [4] Group 3 - Specific predictions for major financing channels include $200 billion from unsecured corporate bonds, $150 billion from asset-backed securities (ABS) and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), and approximately $800 billion from private credit markets [5] - Private credit is viewed as a key funding channel due to its adaptability to the complex and globalized financing needs associated with AI infrastructure [6] - Despite the inherent uncertainties in predicting financing channels, the credit market is expected to play an increasingly important role in supporting AI-driven technological expansion [6]