摩根士丹利预测，AI支出缺口将催生超1.5万亿美元债务需求。 摩根士丹利最新研报指出，到2028年，全球数据中心建设将需要约2.9万亿美元的投资。然而，仅依靠 超大规模云服务商的内部现金流，最多只能覆盖其中的1.4万亿美元，剩余的1.5万亿美元融资缺口将深 刻影响全球信贷市场格局。 这场由AI推动的资本开支浪潮不仅规模惊人，也将带来重要的宏观经济效应。摩根士丹利的经济学家 预计，2025至2026年间，数据中心建设和电力基础设施相关投资将为美国实际GDP增长贡献高达40个 基点。 与此同时，信贷市场将成为填补融资缺口的重要渠道，数据中心融资将成为信贷投资者长期关注的关键 主题。 AI投资规模达到历史新高度 为填补这一缺口，摩根士丹利认为信贷市场将在未来发挥核心作用。无论是公开还是私人市场，广义信 贷渠道将在填补这一资金缺口方面发挥越来越关键的作用。 目前的市场环境也有利于这一趋势的发展，信贷市场干粉充足，而当前的实际收益率水平具有吸引力， 适合长期持有型的投资者群体，如保险公司、主权财富基金、养老金基金、大学基金会和高净值个人 等。 这些"黏性"资金的投资偏好，正好与AI基础设施投资对规模化、高质量、分散化资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities of the current market environment, emphasizing the need for active management strategies in bond investment portfolios to capture pricing discrepancies and select investment targets for better returns [1][4]. Market Environment - The market has experienced continued volatility in the second quarter, exacerbated by new U.S. tariff policies, leading to increased uncertainty regarding inflation, economic growth, and interest rate trends [1][2]. - The fixed income assets are gaining investor attention due to their stable returns and risk diversification benefits, although the current narrowing of spreads indicates it is not a typical "buy the dip" scenario [1][4]. Economic Outlook - The economic outlook has become highly uncertain due to factors such as policy adjustments, fiscal measures, de-globalization trends, and energy transitions, which are impacting both short-term and long-term perspectives [2]. - The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank face challenges from economic cycle pressures and structural changes, with a slight increase in the probability of recession from 15% to 20% [3]. Investment Strategy - Selective allocation is crucial as credit spreads have widened but remain at historically low levels, necessitating careful selection of bonds [4]. - The high-yield bond market shows a divided performance, presenting both opportunities and risks, with a recommendation for investors to focus on short-duration high-yield bonds due to favorable conditions [4][5]. Asset Selection - High-quality securitized credit assets, such as AAA-rated CLOs and CMBS, are expected to continue providing attractive risk-adjusted returns, while low-rated bonds exhibit high volatility without corresponding excess return potential [5]. - In the investment-grade bond sector, strong capital positions in banks and utilities are favored, while the retail sector is viewed negatively due to pressures from AI and consumer shifts [6]. Tactical Management - Active management strategies are essential in the face of narrowing spreads, geopolitical tensions, and policy uncertainties, with a preference for a "barbell strategy" that combines high-quality income assets with opportunistic risk assets [6]. - Fixed income assets still hold advantages over cash and equities, particularly in scenarios of significant market corrections leading to interest rate declines [6].