今年以来，主动权益基金强势回归。 从数据来看，截至8月31日，1038支普通股票型基金中，正收益基金数量为1029支，占比99%，平均收 益27.91%；4867支偏股混合型基金中，正收益基金数量为4791支，占比98%，平均收益27.66%，无论是 正收益率还是平均收益都非常亮眼。（数据来源：wind，截至2025/8/31，过往业绩不代表未来） 有投资者会说，市场热起来了，站在风口上，主动权益表现好不足为奇。诚然，主动权益基金的优异表 现离不开市场的热度，但如果我们拉长时间看，主动权益基金的战绩也非常亮眼。 还是用数据说话。从长期来看，主动权益基金整体收益率和沪深300指数的超额收益率均非常可观。自 2009年以来的17年中，主动权益基金指数有10年跑赢沪深300，且有5年的超额收益率都在两位数以上。 | | 沪深300指数 | 万得偏股混 | 普通股票型 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 合基金指数 | 其金指数 | | 2009年 | 96.71% | 62.98% | 70.99% | | 2010年 | -12.51% | 5.31% | 2.86% | | 20 ...

Market Overview - The stock market is experiencing heightened enthusiasm, with the Shanghai Composite Index successfully surpassing 3600 points, marking a new high for the year and the first time since January 2022 that it closed above this level [1] - In contrast, the bond market has faced challenges, with the yield on 10-year government bonds rising from 1.64% on July 9 to 1.74% on July 24, an increase of approximately 10 basis points [1] Factors Influencing Market Sentiment - The shift in short-term risk appetite is attributed to several factors, including the introduction of anti-involution policies that have boosted market inflation expectations and the commencement of major hydropower projects that have ignited bullish sentiment [1] - External market stability and a temporary stabilization of the RMB exchange rate have also contributed to a recovery in risk appetite [1] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market is under pressure due to concerns about the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, which may suppress bond performance. Historical data indicates that past stock rallies typically led to a more significant increase in bond yields compared to the current situation [2][3] - The current stock market rally is primarily driven by bank stocks and small-cap stocks, diverging from historical patterns where cyclical and consumer stocks led the charge [2] Policy Impact on Bonds - The anti-involution policies are not expected to pose substantial risks to the bond market in the short term, as the effects of these policies on industry profitability and inflation will take time to materialize [4] - The major hydropower project, while significant, has a long construction period of 10 years, limiting its immediate impact on bond supply [4] Future Outlook - Short-term fluctuations in the bond market may occur due to sentiment changes driven by key market themes, but the fundamental outlook of strong production and weak demand remains unchanged [4] - The upcoming Politburo meeting is seen as a critical juncture that could influence market conditions [4] Investment Strategies - For conservative investors, a "barbell strategy" combining short-term and long-term bonds is recommended to balance steady income and capital gains [6] - For those seeking moderate returns with limited risk tolerance, mixed funds that combine bonds with a small percentage of equities can provide a balanced approach to risk and return [9]

Core Viewpoint - The public fund industry is witnessing a resurgence in the "equity-linked bond funds" sector, with total market size approaching 2 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of nearly 240 billion yuan since the end of 2024 [1][2] Group 1: Market Overview - As of June 30, the total scale of equity-linked bond funds (including primary bond funds, secondary bond funds, mixed bond funds, and convertible bond funds) is close to 2 trillion yuan, marking an increase of nearly 240 billion yuan compared to the end of 2024 [1] - The proportion of equity-linked bond funds has been rising for two consecutive quarters, driven by declining risk-free yields and a recovering equity market [1][20] Group 2: Company Performance - Guotai Fund has shown exceptional performance in the equity-linked bond fund sector, with its products growing by over 9 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a growth rate of 64%, significantly higher than the industry average of 14% [1][2] - Guotai Fund's secondary bond funds have an average yield of 7.47%, outperforming the industry average of 5.49%, with a maximum drawdown of -2.36%, lower than the industry average of -2.73% [8][9] - Guotai Fund's primary bond funds have an average yield of 5.40%, exceeding the industry average of 4.01%, with a maximum drawdown of -1.39%, also lower than the industry average of -1.46% [12][9] Group 3: Fund Strategies and Management - Guotai Fund's strategy for its secondary bond fund, Guotai Shuangli, includes a bond base combined with multi-asset rotation, achieving a one-year yield of 11.97%, ranking in the top 8% of its category [10] - The fund manager, Chen Zhihua, utilizes asset allocation strategies to enhance risk management and diversify returns, focusing on gold stocks in the current market environment [10][11] - The Guotai Jinlong bond fund employs a dual strategy of pure bonds and convertible bonds, achieving a one-year yield of 9.13%, ranking in the top 6% of its category [13] - The Guotai Zhaoxiang Tieli fund focuses on a credit bond base and macro asset rotation, achieving a one-year yield of 9.78%, ranking 8th in its category [16][17] Group 4: Market Outlook - The macroeconomic environment shows resilience, with expectations of stable funding rates and further declines in bond market yields [14][19] - The equity market is recovering, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3600 points, highlighting the value of equity-linked bond funds for conservative investors [20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of government bond futures and their impact on bond funds, highlighting the decline in bond prices and the resulting negative effects on fund yields [2][3]. Group 1: Government Bond Futures Performance - The 30-year government bond futures reached a high of 121.75 points on February 7, 2025, but closed at 113.70 points on March 18, 2025, reflecting a drop of 805 basis points over a month [2]. - The 10-year government bond futures experienced a decline of 195 basis points during the same period [2]. Group 2: Impact on Bond Funds - The average yield for 878 short-term pure bond funds was -0.18%, while 3,407 medium to long-term pure bond funds had an average yield of -0.79% from February 10 to March 17, 2025 [3]. - Mixed-level bond funds showed a slightly better performance, with first-level mixed bond funds averaging -0.35% and second-level mixed bond funds averaging +0.20% [3]. Group 3: Selection of Bond Funds - Among the short-term pure bond funds, only 23.69% (208 funds) achieved positive returns, while 10.68% (364 funds) of medium to long-term pure bond funds did so [4]. - The top-performing short-term bond funds included 博时月月兴30天 and 招商招财通理财, while the leading medium to long-term funds included 银河睿鑫 and 国泰睿元一年定开 [5]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - For cautious investors, the article suggests selecting short-term and medium to long-term pure bond funds, while those with a moderate risk appetite may consider second-level bond funds with equity allocations [4][7]. - The article emphasizes the importance of analyzing bond fund reports to understand the underlying bond compositions and strategies, particularly in the context of current market conditions [6][7].