Core Viewpoint - The vaccine industry is showing significant growth in the first three quarters of the year, with various vaccine types, including circular, diarrhea, brucellosis, and cat trivalent vaccines, continuing to perform well [1][2] Vaccine Batch Issuance - In the first three quarters, most vaccine types have seen substantial year-on-year growth, with specific increases in pig vaccines such as foot-and-mouth disease (+9.1%), circular vaccine (+29.5%), pseudorabies vaccine (+27.0%), and swine fever vaccine (+17.7%) [1] - Poultry vaccines like avian influenza trivalent vaccine (+9.6%) and Newcastle disease vaccine (+12.4%) also showed stable growth, while brucellosis vaccine experienced a remarkable increase of +60.2% [1][2] - Pet vaccines, particularly domestic rabies vaccine (+22.8%) and domestic cat trivalent vaccine (+74.4%), have maintained high growth rates [1] Factors Driving Growth - The growth in pig vaccines is attributed to multiple factors, including farming profitability, increased pig slaughter rates, and the introduction of new products [2] - The poultry vaccine sector continues to grow steadily, while the brucellosis vaccine benefits from the ongoing launch of new products [2] Veterinary Drug Raw Materials - As of October 22, the Veterinary Pharmaceutical Index (VPI) stands at 69.29, reflecting a 0.1% increase from the end of September and a 6.4% increase year-on-year [3] - The VPI index has shown a positive trend in October, with an average of 69.33, marking a 0.9% increase from September [3][4] Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The price of veterinary raw materials has been on the rise due to tightened supply and increased demand from large orders, particularly for products like tylosin [4] - The overall price increase in veterinary raw materials is driven by a combination of cost factors, corporate strategies, and market demand [4] Investment Recommendations - The industry is gradually recovering from a downturn, with a focus on undervalued companies that exhibit both elasticity and certainty [5] - Companies that have shown strong performance typically possess innovative qualities in product development, marketing strategies, or capital operations [6] - Recommended companies for investment include Ruipu Biological (300119.SZ), Kexin Biological (688526.SH), and others [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the animal health industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [2][82]. Core Insights - The animal health industry has shown significant growth in vaccine issuance, with most vaccine varieties experiencing year-on-year increases in the first three quarters of the year. Key vaccines such as porcine epidemic diarrhea, porcine circovirus, and others have demonstrated strong performance [9][12]. - The Veterinary Product Index (VPI) has shown a continued upward trend in October, indicating a recovery in raw material prices for veterinary drugs after a period of decline [3][58]. - The report highlights that the industry is gradually emerging from a low point, with a focus on undervalued companies that exhibit both elasticity and certainty in their performance [71][72]. Summary by Sections Vaccine Issuance - Cumulative data from January to September shows that most vaccine varieties have experienced significant year-on-year growth, particularly in porcine vaccines, with increases of 9.1% for foot-and-mouth disease vaccine, 29.5% for porcine circovirus vaccine, and 60.2% for brucellosis vaccine [9][12]. - The report notes that the growth in vaccine issuance is driven by multiple factors, including farming profitability, increased slaughter rates, and the introduction of new products [13][14]. Raw Material Prices - As of October 22, the VPI stands at 69.29, reflecting a 0.1% increase from the end of September and a 6.4% increase year-on-year. This marks a recovery after three consecutive months of decline [58][61]. - The report indicates that the prices of most veterinary raw materials have improved, with significant increases noted for products like Tylosin and Amoxicillin [59][61]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that have shown resilience and innovation, such as Reap Bio, Kexin Bio, and others, as they are expected to perform well in the recovering market [71][73]. - It emphasizes that the competitive landscape is shifting, with larger companies likely to outperform smaller ones, leading to potential consolidation in the industry [72][73].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the majority of vaccine varieties have experienced significant year-on-year growth from January to August, particularly in the pet vaccine sector, with domestic rabies vaccine and cat trivalent vaccine increasing by 16.8% and 78.9% respectively [1][2] - In the pig vaccine category, the economic product circular vaccine and mandatory vaccines such as pseudorabies and swine fever vaccines have shown rapid growth, attributed to sustained breeding prosperity and increased pig inventory [1][3] - The VPI index for veterinary raw materials has rebounded by approximately 2.1% by the end of September, following a three-month decline, driven by supply-side tightening and large downstream orders [4][5] Group 2 - The report highlights that the growth in vaccine issuance is supported by multiple factors including breeding prosperity, inventory growth, disease prevalence, and the introduction of new products [3][6] - The increase in prices for veterinary raw materials is primarily due to supply-side changes and improved market competition, with specific products like florfenicol benefiting from a more favorable supply environment [5][6] - The industry is gradually emerging from a downturn, with a focus on undervalued companies that exhibit both elasticity and certainty, suggesting a positive outlook for the sector [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the animal health industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [81]. Core Insights - The animal health industry is gradually emerging from a low point, with a focus on undervalued companies that exhibit both elasticity and certainty. The report highlights that the ongoing internal competition has led to a market cleanup, with a recovery in the prices of veterinary raw materials and significant improvements in the year-on-year issuance of various vaccine types [70][71]. - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation in companies that have performed well, whether through product innovation, marketing strategies, or capital operations, which is reflected in their financial performance [70][71]. Summary by Sections Vaccine Issuance - In the first eight months of the year, most vaccine types showed significant year-on-year growth, particularly in swine vaccines such as foot-and-mouth disease vaccine (+11.0%), porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome vaccine (+38.1%), and others. The report notes that the cat tri-vaccine saw a remarkable increase of +78.9% [10][11][9]. - The report indicates that the growth in vaccine issuance is driven by multiple factors, including the continued prosperity of farming, increased livestock inventory, disease outbreaks, and the introduction of new products [11][10]. Veterinary Raw Materials - As of September, the Veterinary Price Index (VPI) was reported at 69.22, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.0% and a year-on-year increase of 8.7%. This marks the first month-on-month increase after three consecutive months of decline [56][59]. - The report highlights that the price of various veterinary raw materials has improved, with significant increases in the prices of products like tiamulin and florfenicol, driven by supply constraints and increased demand [56][59]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are undervalued yet possess strong growth potential, such as RuiPu Biological, KeQian Biological, and others. It notes that the competitive landscape is shifting, with larger companies outperforming smaller ones, indicating a potential for market consolidation in the future [70][71].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the animal health industry, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [79]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant growth in vaccine approvals for circular, pseudorabies, and diarrhea vaccines, with notable year-on-year increases [7][8]. - The animal drug raw material market shows a continued strong performance in macrolide products, with price indices reflecting a structural differentiation among various products [52][53]. - The overall demand for animal health products is expected to recover, driven by improved profitability in the breeding sector and the introduction of new products [68][69]. Summary by Sections Vaccine Approvals - In April, major vaccine varieties for pigs showed substantial year-on-year growth, with circular vaccine up by 71.2%, pseudorabies vaccine by 73.3%, and diarrhea vaccine by 220% [7][8]. - Cumulative data from January to April indicates most vaccine types experienced significant growth, particularly in pig vaccines, with circular vaccine up by 52.3% and pseudorabies vaccine by 48.2% [8][9]. Raw Material Prices - As of the end of April, the Veterinary Pharmaceutical Index (VPI) was 69.2, reflecting a 5.6% increase from the previous month and a 13.4% increase year-on-year [52][53]. - Prices for macrolide products such as Tylosin, Tylvalosin, and Tilmicosin have shown strong performance, with increases of 10.1%, 17.6%, and 15.4% respectively compared to the end of March [53][54]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a stable upward trend in the demand for animal health products, supported by a robust breeding sector and ongoing product innovation [68][69]. - The competitive landscape is expected to lead to a dual recovery in performance and valuation for the sector, with a focus on larger companies that can leverage their financial strength and product diversity [69][70]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Reap Bio, Kexin Bio, and others, which are well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated market recovery [68][70].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company Overview - The conference call discusses **科前生物 (KQ Bio)**, a company in the **animal health industry** focusing on veterinary vaccines and products. Financial Performance - In 2024, **KQ Bio** reported revenue of **940 million** (9.4 亿), a decrease of **11.5%** year-on-year, while net profit was **380 million** (3.8 亿), an increase of **3.4%** year-on-year [2][4] - For Q4 2024, revenue was **280 million** (2.8 亿), down **17%**, and net profit was **120 million** (1.2 亿), down **16%** [2][4] - In Q1 2025, revenue was approximately **245 million** (2.45 亿), an increase of **19.7%**, and net profit was about **110 million** (1.1 亿), up **24%**, indicating a recovery in revenue growth and improved profitability [2][4] Core Products and Market Performance - Key products and their expected revenues for 2024 include: - **苏威狂犬疫苗 (Suwei Rabies Vaccine)**: **270 million** (2.7 亿), down **20%** - **福星疫苗 (Fuxing Vaccine)**: **360 million** (3.6 亿), down **10%** - **圆环疫苗 (Round Vaccine)**: approximately **110 million** (1.1 亿), down **12%** [2][6] - Group customers account for **70%** of revenue, with innovative products seen as new growth points in the animal health industry [2][6] New Product Developments - The **中国威宝二联疫苗 (China Weibaolian Vaccine)** has been approved and is expected to become a major product with revenues exceeding **500 million** (5 亿) in the next **2-3 years** [2][7] - New products such as **原之 20** are performing well, with monthly revenues exceeding **10 million** (千万元), potentially reaching a scale of **200 million** (两个亿) [2][7] - The **腹泻疫苗 (Diarrhea Vaccine)** is growing faster than overall revenue, and the **伪狂犬疫苗 (Pseudorabies Vaccine)** is expected to contribute **100 million** (1 亿) in revenue this year, with potential growth to **500 million** (5 亿) in the next **2-3 years** [2][7] Pet Segment Developments - The pet segment includes products like **犬四联 (Canine Quadrivalent)** and **猫三联 (Feline Trivalent)**, with upcoming registrations for vaccines targeting both dogs and cats [2][8] - Research and development are progressing rapidly, with ongoing projects for diseases such as **犬瘟热 (Canine Distemper)** and **猫传腹 (Feline Infectious Peritonitis)** [2][8] Industry Outlook and Investment Potential - The animal health industry is experiencing improved conditions, and **KQ Bio** is entering a period of new product explosion, indicating significant growth potential [2][9] - The company is projected to reach a market value of at least **10 billion** (100 亿元) this year and **12-14 billion** (120-140 亿元) next year, making it a noteworthy investment opportunity [2][9]