动保行业包括生物制品、疫苗、原料药、化学制剂和饲料添加剂等产品。这些 产品在养殖产业链中起到重要作用。根据统计局数据，以 2024 年为例，全国 中国动保市场仍面临国际竞争压力，但国产替代趋势正在形成，如速腾 在中国地区收入明显下降，本土企业逐渐缩小差距，创新药出口有望实 现突破。 动保行业未来增长点在宠物医疗领域，国内企业需积极突破经济动物和 国际市场，关注瑞普生物、科前生物、回云生物等企业，以及普莱克、 金河生物、生物股份和中牧股份等。 行业回归创新驱动，宠物药品及出海拓展成长空间 20250824 摘要 生猪养殖规模化提升，下游议价能力增强，动保行业内卷加剧，毛利率 从 2020 年的 35%以上降至 2023 年的不到 31%，中小型企业面临更 大生存压力。 动保行业创新后劲不足，同质化严重，一类新兽药证书数量明显减少， 产品价格战加剧，如口蹄疫苗单价从 2020 年的 1.45 元/毫升降至 2023 年底的 0.98 元/毫升，降幅超 32%。 动保产品在生猪养殖成本中占比略超 5%，但疫病风险是养殖业面临的 最大风险，对动保产品需求具有刚性，国内生猪养殖环境复杂，疫病对 养殖业构成重大困扰。 一 ...

4、禽板块：白鸡&蛋鸡重视引种缺口；黄鸡重视消费需求边际改善！1）重视白鸡基本面，关注引种边际变化！ ①祖代鸡引种不确定性犹存。考虑到2015 年法国因禽流感封关后，我国已有近10 年未从法国引种，叠加现阶段全 球禽流感及美国关税预期，我们预计今年祖代鸡更新将呈现总量下降及品种结构变化。②本周鸡苗价格稳定、毛鸡 价格小幅震荡。③投资建议：行业磨底已持续 3年，产能收缩意愿增加；当前海外引种持续受扰动，重视引种数量 和结构变化，前瞻布局行情景气反转；建议重视自主育种崛起机会以及掌握引种替代资源的白羽鸡龙头。首推【圣 农发展】，建议关注【益生股份】、【民和股份】、【禾丰股份】、【仙坛股份】等。2）黄鸡：供给或现收缩，核 心变量在需求。①产能处于较低区间，但仍在 2018 年以来的较低区间。②台风过境未阻涨价势头，续养及消费渠 道增量明显，其中快、中、慢速类全国均价分别为5.42元/斤、6.34元/斤、7.62元/斤，环比+0.3/ +0.3/ +0.36 元/ 斤（8 月11 日-8 月17 日）。③投资建议：价格筑底或已完成，需求边际改善有望带动价格触底回升。随着黄鸡消 费下半年高于上半年的特性，我们认为黄羽鸡 ...

Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, with a focus on potential investment opportunities in the sector [1][3] - The market performance over the last 12 months shows a decline of 11% for the agriculture sector compared to a 4% decline in the CSI 300 index, indicating relative underperformance [2][10] Livestock Farming Data Tracking - Pig prices have been declining due to increased supply pressure, with the average price of live pigs at 13.74 CNY/kg as of August 14, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 2.00% [6][29] - The number of breeding sows showed a slight increase in July, with a month-on-month growth of 0.28% [20] - Profitability for self-bred pigs remains positive at 28.85 CNY per head, while purchased piglets show a loss of 157.05 CNY per head [35] Poultry Farming Data Tracking - The average price of white feather broilers was 7.20 CNY/kg as of August 15, with a week-on-week increase of 0.84% [36][39] - The ongoing avian influenza outbreaks in Europe and the U.S. are expected to benefit the white feather chicken industry by stabilizing prices [36] Animal Health Data Tracking - The demand for animal health products is expected to rebound, with significant year-on-year growth in vaccine issuance for various diseases, including a 76% increase for circovirus vaccines in June [45] - The development of African swine fever vaccines is progressing, with clinical trials expected to enhance market interest in the sector [45] Seed Industry Data Tracking - The average prices for wheat, soybean meal, and corn as of August 15 are 2438 CNY/ton, 3097 CNY/ton, and 2394 CNY/ton, respectively, with soybean meal prices increasing by 2.7% week-on-week [48] - The USDA's August report indicates a decrease in global corn and soybean stocks for the 2025/26 season compared to the previous year, which may impact pricing and availability [49][51] Pet Industry Data Tracking - Pet food exports totaled 4.999 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [53] - Domestic sales of pet food are growing rapidly, with a combined growth rate of 5% across major e-commerce platforms in July [56] - Companies with strong domestic sales growth and supply chain advantages are expected to enhance their market share [56]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **agriculture industry**, focusing on **animal protein sectors** such as **pig farming**, **dairy farming**, and **beef cattle farming** [1][2][34]. Core Insights and Arguments Pig Farming - The **pig farming cycle** is driven by production capacity, with the number of breeding sows being a critical leading indicator. This needs to be cross-verified with data on sow feed sales [1][2]. - The **African swine fever** has normalized, raising the industry's cost base, which affects the peak and elasticity of the cycle [1][4]. - **Scale farming** may extend the pig cycle and amplify price fluctuations. Secondary fattening increases price disturbances, influenced by short-term price expectations [1][5]. - The **反内卷 (anti-involution) policy** aims to reduce the number of breeding sows and lower slaughter weights to support pig prices [1][11]. - The average price of pigs is expected to rise to over **16 RMB per kilogram** by **2026**, with **牧原股份 (Muyuan Food)** potentially achieving a profit of nearly **500 RMB per head** [1][14]. Dairy Farming - The dairy industry faces challenges due to falling milk prices, currently around **3 RMB per kilogram**, down from **4.5 RMB**. However, there is potential for demand improvement due to increased willingness to have children and government subsidies for newborns [1][17]. - The beef cattle sector has a long growth cycle and is heavily reliant on imports, with significant industry clearing observed [1][18][20]. Market Dynamics - The **white chicken farming** sector is significantly impacted by overseas breeding policies, with potential for market share growth for **圣农 (Sannong)** during periods of import disruption [3][25]. - The **seafood feed** segment is expected to improve due to rising prices of common aquatic products, with **海大集团 (Haida Group)** showing strong performance in this area [3][27]. Other Important Insights - The **agricultural new consumption trends** include rapid growth in pet food and pet healthcare sectors, indicating new growth potential beyond traditional areas [6][34]. - The **agricultural input products** like feed and veterinary products serve as lagging indicators in the animal protein supply chain, aiding in capacity data assessment [7][34]. - The **grain security** theme is increasingly important, with policies and market dynamics needing close attention [8][30]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on core assets like **牧原 (Muyuan)** and **温氏 (Wens Food)**, which have strong cost control and are less affected by the anti-involution policy [12][13]. - The **港股 (Hong Kong stock market)** upstream livestock companies are currently in a challenging phase but are expected to improve by **2026** as the new cycle begins [22]. - **海大集团 (Haida Group)** is recommended for its strong market position and growth potential in both domestic and international markets [27]. Future Trends - The pig farming sector is expected to benefit from the anti-involution policy, leading to a new upward price cycle in **2026** [15][34]. - The **meat cattle industry** is facing significant challenges, including price declines and industry losses, with a low degree of scale [20][21]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the agriculture industry, particularly in the animal protein sectors.

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Views - The pig sector is experiencing a halt in the growth of breeding sows, indicating a significant expectation gap in the market. The average price of pigs is stable at 14.34 CNY/kg, while the price of piglets has reached a new low this year. The supply pressure continues to increase, and the seasonal demand is weak, suggesting a potential seasonal decline in pig prices [1][2][11] - The dairy sector is nearing the end of its capacity reduction phase, with expectations for a rebound in raw milk prices. The beef cycle may have started, with companies that can withstand the current downturn showing strong profit potential [3][13][14] - The pet industry is witnessing a rise in domestic brands and a positive trend in pet food exports, indicating robust growth in the pet economy. Key recommendations include companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co [15][16] - The poultry sector is focusing on the breeding gap for white and egg-laying chickens, with expectations for price improvements driven by demand. The yellow chicken market is also showing signs of recovery due to supply constraints and improving demand [4][17][19] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - The average price of pigs is stable at 14.34 CNY/kg, with self-breeding profits around 130 CNY per head. The price of piglets has hit a new low, and the average weight of pigs at market is high, indicating supply pressure [1][11] - The breeding sow numbers have decreased, with some institutions reporting a halt in growth. The market is expected to see capacity reduction due to policy guidance and weak demand [2][12] Dairy and Beef Sector - The raw milk price is expected to rebound as the dairy industry approaches the end of its capacity reduction phase. The beef cycle may have started, with companies that can adapt showing strong profit potential [3][14] Pet Sector - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands growing rapidly. Pet food exports are also on the rise, with significant sales growth reported [15][16] Poultry Sector - The white chicken and egg-laying chicken markets are focusing on breeding gaps, with expectations for price increases driven by demand. The yellow chicken market is showing signs of recovery due to supply constraints [4][17][19] Planting Sector - The focus is on achieving food security through self-sufficiency and enhancing breeding strategies. The government is promoting agricultural technology innovation to support this goal [5][21][22] Feed and Animal Health Sector - The feed sector is recommended for companies with increasing market share and consistent performance, such as Haida Group. The animal health sector is focusing on breaking through homogenized competition with innovative products [6][23][24]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **pig farming industry** in the context of the "anti-involution" policy aimed at addressing low-price disorderly competition and promoting supply-side reforms [1][2][7]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Anti-Involution Policy**: The policy aims to control basic production capacity, breeding sow inventory, and the weight of pigs at market release, thereby preventing drastic fluctuations in production and prices [1][8]. 2. **Supply-Side Reforms**: The reforms are expected to lead to an optimized supply structure in the pig farming industry, enhancing overall efficiency and resource conservation [1][3]. 3. **Economic Environment**: The current economic environment is characterized by a transition from financial re-inflation to food re-inflation, with significant changes in household savings and investment behaviors [4][5]. 4. **Inflation Understanding**: Inflation levels should be understood through both supply reform and demand stimulation, with a focus on supply-side adjustments before demand-side interventions [6]. 5. **PPI Impact**: A narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to have a strong impact on asset allocation strategies [6]. Specific Measures in Pig Farming - The anti-involution measures include controlling the number of breeding sows, reducing the weight of pigs at market release, and timely reporting of production data [1][8]. - The goal is to prevent overproduction and stabilize prices, which is crucial for maintaining profitability in the sector [7][14]. Industry Challenges and Responses 1. **Overcapacity Issues**: The pig farming industry has faced overcapacity challenges, with a slow exit of outdated production capacity despite profitability since May 2024 [2][9]. 2. **Animal Health Industry**: The veterinary medicine and vaccine sectors are experiencing intense competition, with many companies reporting declining performance [2][10][16]. 3. **Market Dynamics**: The market for veterinary products is expected to improve as the anti-involution policy encourages innovation and higher standards for new product approvals [16][18]. Future Projections - The breeding sow inventory is expected to gradually decrease, impacting pig supply and prices in the second half of 2026 [14]. - Short-term price pressures are anticipated due to seasonal factors, but overall price stability is expected as supply adjustments take effect [15]. Investment Opportunities - Companies with efficiency advantages in pig farming and leading firms in the veterinary medicine sector are identified as having high investment value [19]. - Specific companies such as Keqian Bio, Ruipu Bio, and Huisheng Bio are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the anti-involution policy [19]. Conclusion - The anti-involution policy is set to reshape the pig farming industry, addressing overcapacity and enhancing product quality while also impacting related sectors such as veterinary medicine. The overall economic environment and inflation dynamics will play a crucial role in shaping future market conditions and investment strategies [1][5][20].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [8] Core Insights - The report highlights the low prices of piglets and the high average weight of market pigs, indicating a significant expectation gap in the pig sector [1][2] - The dairy and beef sectors are experiencing a potential new cycle, with a focus on the recovery of milk prices and the initiation of a beef super cycle [3][4] - The pet food sector is witnessing the rise of domestic brands and a positive trend in exports, reflecting the growth of the pet economy [5][6] - The poultry sector is facing challenges with breeding imports and demand recovery, particularly in the white and egg-laying chicken segments [7][8] - The planting sector emphasizes food security and the importance of biological breeding strategies [9][10] - The feed sector is recommended for investment due to market share growth and consistent performance of leading companies like Haida Group [11][12] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - As of August 2, the average price of pigs is 14.35 CNY/kg, down 3.1% from the previous week, with a profit of approximately 141 CNY per head for self-breeding [1][12] - The price of piglets has reached a new low for the year, with 7kg piglets priced at 429 CNY/head [1][12] - The report suggests focusing on undervalued companies with strong profitability in the pig sector, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [2][13] Beef Sector - The average price of live cattle is 26.49 CNY/kg, with a year-on-year increase of 11.6% [3][14] - The report indicates that the dairy industry is nearing the end of a capacity reduction phase, with significant losses expected to drive a rebound in milk prices [4][15] Pet Sector - Domestic brands in the pet food market are growing rapidly, with notable sales figures reported for cat and dog food [5][16] - Exports of pet food have increased, with a total of 16.79 million tons exported in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [5][16] Poultry Sector - The report emphasizes the importance of breeding imports and the potential for price increases in yellow chickens due to recovering demand [6][7] - The average price of egg-laying chickens is expected to remain high due to import restrictions [7][21] Planting Sector - The focus is on achieving food security through improved agricultural practices and the promotion of biotechnology [9][23] - Key recommendations include investing in leading seed companies and agricultural resource firms [9][23] Feed Sector - Haida Group is highlighted as a key investment opportunity due to its increasing market share and strong performance [11][24] - The report notes a significant recovery in the aquaculture and feed sectors after a prolonged downturn [11][24]

Core Insights - The company Jinhe Biology (002688) reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 1.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 30.45%, and a net profit of 138 million yuan, up 51.52% [1][1][1] - The favorable trend in the downstream pig farming industry continues to drive demand for upstream animal health products, although competition in the animal health industry remains intense [1][1][1] - The company has strategically focused on product structure and competitive advantages, emphasizing continuous research and innovation, as well as lean management internally and market orientation externally, leading to substantial growth in operating performance [1][1][1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [5] Core Views - The second quarter saw a slight recovery in production capacity, with an increase in average weight and stock levels [2][4] - The overall pig price trend is weak, influenced by increased supply and high temperatures affecting demand [1][38] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in pig farming, feed, animal health, and planting sectors due to favorable market conditions [4] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming Sector - As of June, the number of breeding sows was 40.43 million, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [2][14] - In Q2 2025, the total pig slaughter volume was 171.43 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12% [2][15] - The average price of live pigs in June dropped to 14.57 yuan/kg, a decrease of 2.3% month-on-month and 20.6% year-on-year [21][38] 2. Market Performance - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector outperformed the market, with a weekly increase of 3.62% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 1.67% [28] - Key stocks in the sector showed significant gains, with Shennong Group rising by 15.42% and Juxing Agriculture increasing by 6.79% [32][33] 3. Price Trends - The average price of live pigs was 14.15 yuan/kg as of July 25, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 0.84% [1][38] - The price of white feather broiler chickens increased to 6.7 yuan/kg, up 4.69% week-on-week, while chick prices surged by 40.88% to 1.93 yuan/chick [49][37] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on pig farming stocks such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Juxing Agriculture due to expected price recovery [4] - It also suggests monitoring feed and animal health companies like Haida Group and Ruipu Biological Products, as well as planting companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang Group [4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Home Appliances - Emerging markets have a low penetration rate in home appliances, driving demand growth due to economic development. These markets account for 32% of global home appliance sales and 67% of the population, indicating significant future growth potential [1][2][4] - The export growth rate for white goods is notably high, with Southeast Asia and Latin America experiencing compound annual growth rates of over 13% and 20%, respectively, over the past five years [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - Short-term fluctuations in exports to the U.S. are influenced by tariff policies, but stable end-user demand is expected to lead to a gradual recovery in exports in the third and fourth quarters once tariff policies are clarified [1][5] - Domestic market growth has been stimulated by national subsidy policies, with air conditioner, refrigerator, and washing machine sales increasing in the first half of the year. However, the sustainability of these subsidy policies is uncertain, and their potential cessation could disrupt the industry, though the impact is expected to be less than anticipated [1][6][7] - The national subsidy policy has significantly boosted sales of emerging appliance categories like robotic vacuum cleaners, which saw sales growth exceeding 40%. Even if subsidies are withdrawn in the future, these categories are expected to maintain high growth potential due to short replacement cycles [1][8] Investment Opportunities - The white goods industry primarily relies on replacement demand, with limited oversupply. Companies with high dividend yields and payout ratios above 50%, such as Gree Electric, Midea Group, Haier, and Hisense, are recommended for investment [1][9][10] - Companies with strong overseas advantages and notable performance reversals, such as Ecovacs, Roborock, Anker Innovations, TCL Electronics, and Hisense Visual, are also highlighted as worthy of attention [1][10] Additional Important Insights - The national subsidy policy has had a limited impact on overall market sales, primarily affecting pricing and product structure rather than significantly increasing total sales volumes [1][7] - Emerging markets, particularly in Asia, are expected to see rapid increases in penetration rates as GDP per capita rises, further driving industry growth [4] - The home appliance sector is characterized by a focus on replacement demand domestically, with emerging categories showing significant growth potential even in the absence of subsidies [1][9]