Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3] Core Views - The company has experienced a 6% year-on-year decline in total revenue for H1 2025, with a significant drop of 43% in social entertainment revenue. However, the adjusted operating profit has increased by 35% year-on-year, indicating effective cost control [1][8] - The online music subscription business has shown robust growth, with a 15% increase in subscription revenue driven by the growth in paid user numbers. The online music revenue reached 2.97 billion yuan, up 16% year-on-year, with a leading paid penetration rate of 27% [2][15] - The company is focusing on young users and developing original content to create differentiation, which is expected to support long-term growth. The number of independent musicians on the platform has exceeded 820,000, with approximately 4.8 million music tracks uploaded [3][20] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 3.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 6% year-on-year, while the gross margin improved to 36.4%, up 1.4 percentage points due to optimized music copyright costs. The content service cost was 1.8 billion yuan, down 10% year-on-year, accounting for 47% of revenue [1][8][9] - The total expense ratio for H1 2025 was 16.6%, down 4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to effective sales expense optimization [9] Commercialization - The online music subscription revenue reached 2.47 billion yuan, reflecting a 15% year-on-year increase, driven by the growth in paid users. The company has enhanced its membership benefits to stimulate user willingness to pay for premium experiences [2][15] - Social entertainment services and other business revenues fell to 860 million yuan, a decline of 43% year-on-year, as the company is restructuring its live streaming ecosystem [19] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting adjusted profits of 3.05 billion, 2.54 billion, and 3.05 billion yuan respectively, with an upward revision of 47% for 2025 [3][20] - The reasonable valuation range for the company's stock is set between 311.00 and 354.00 HKD, with a closing price of 280.00 HKD [5]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music Entertainment Group reported a solid growth in Q1 2025, with total revenue increasing by 8.7% year-on-year to 7.36 billion yuan and adjusted net profit rising by 22.8% to 2.23 billion yuan [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q1 2025 reached 7.36 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.7% year-on-year growth [2] - Adjusted net profit increased by 22.8% to 2.23 billion yuan [2] - Online music service revenue grew by 15.9% to 5.8 billion yuan, with subscription revenue up by 16.6% to 4.22 billion yuan [2] Group 2: User Growth and Engagement - The number of paid users for online music reached 122.9 million, with ARPPU increasing to 11.4 yuan [2] - The growth in paid users was driven by exclusive high-quality content and benefits, particularly in the super membership segment [2] - Long audio content has become a significant driver for the conversion and retention of super members [2][6] Group 3: Long Audio Content Strategy - Tencent Music's long audio strategy, initiated in 2020, has led to substantial progress, with a rich ecosystem of long audio content [4] - Collaborations with popular IPs and top voice actors have resulted in successful audio dramas, such as "The Grave Robbers' Chronicles," which quickly surpassed 10 million plays [4][6] - The company has introduced AI-assisted tools to enhance the production efficiency of long audio content, exemplified by the launch of the AI audio drama "A Mortal's Journey to Immortality" [6][8] Group 4: Technological Innovation - Tencent Music leverages AIGC and other technologies to provide differentiated platform features and services for long audio enthusiasts [8] - The integration of long audio content with core online music services has enhanced user engagement and expanded the super member base [8]